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Two REOs Hit the Market at Brickell on the River North Tower

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Brickell on the River North Tower bathroom

Since yesterday, two REO condos at Brickell on the River North Tower have come onto the market. The first is a 3 bedroom/2.5 bath condo on the 35th floor with 1,513 square feet of interior.  The asking price is $ 314,000, or $208 per square foot.  The second condo, also located on the 35th floor, is a 2 bedroom/2 bath condo with 1,157 square feet of interior.  The asking price is $222,750, or $193 per square foot.  Both condos face west, come with one parking space and have tiled flooring throughout the living areas and marble in the bathrooms.  Both condos are well priced and should receive offers from multiple parties. Contact us at 305-350-9842 if you have an interest in either or both condos at Brickell on the River North Tower.



94 thoughts on “Two REOs Hit the Market at Brickell on the River North Tower

  1. Hello everyone, I always wanted to be the first to make a comment on here.So here I go.I think those deals that Lucas posted here are amazing.Im even surprised that they are not sold yet.I hope that others write in here as it seems quiet here over the weekends.

  2. They’re probably nice units, but at $200/sf + taxes and HOA fees and with the west-facing views, I don’t know if these are bargains.

  3. I cant believe what happened to such an informative enjoyable site myself.I guess that realestate is so busy now , nobody has time to go online.

  4. This site went on decline after AJ and Renter Tom left. Nothing is the same after their lively fireworks. Oh well, all good things must come to an end.

  5. I remember that guy RENTER TOM.I wonder if he ever bought,now that you mention it Imo its been a long time since hes been on here.I used to love reading all the comments and looked forward to logging on every night.I still do but its been aweful lonely on here lately.

  6. Thanks to our Prez. he has killed the market. Now even the Reo’s are not selling. But there are lot of happy people living in the houses for free. No more foreclosures!

    About 1000 people lost their jobs at “Sterns”. I suppose that is good for our economy.

  7. Americans are poorer today and need more housing assistance. 3% down now, from 10% in 1938? We’ve gotten even more desperate.

    “By 1938, only four years after the beginning of the Federal Housing Association, a house could be purchased for a down payment of only ten percent of the purchase price. The remaining ninety percent was financed by a twenty-five year, self amortizing, FHA-insured mortgage loan.”

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Housing_Administration

  8. Lucas not posting relevant news is partly why this site is dead. I read Dwayne Wade has purchased a 10M home in SB, I’m surprised Lucas didn’t post a blurb about it because he was so hyped about the big 3 and what it meant to Miami RE.

    PU – the Prez killed RE market and don’t hold your breath about the govt subsidy of home mtgs going away anytime soon. Even with current proposals they are only talking about deductions of intest going away for over $500K. We had a fake economy buit on housing speculation for almost a decade the bubble burst and lots of folks got hurt, we now have to find another bubble to grow our economy.

  9. Hey Lucas, what do you see going on in the Miami Condo markety today.
    I know you will be criticized by many for sharing your views but some people value what you have to say about current market conditions.
    Also it would be nice if there is some kind of time stamp somewhere on your video updates. There is no way of knowing when the video was recorded.

  10. Not sure why you guys want to blame the Prez so much about the poor real estate market. It is a simple game of chicken between buyers and sellers. Buyers won’t pay higher prices and sellers cannot afford to unload at the price a transaction can be completed at. Banks sitting on short sales indicate this. Transactions occur quickly when priced properly-you can see it in the days on market for sold units. We have just run out of suckers to buy overpriced units, this is how a pyramid scheme ends. Been following a couple of units in buildings I’m interested in the past couple of months. A year ago I would have purchased at their list prices. While the prices are still reasonable, no action is occuring. They are 50% off their peak of 2007, yet people aren’t pulling the trigger because they are just now becoming marginally affordable to a typical homeowner’s income.

  11. Gables, I wasn’t blaming the prez, I was being sarcastic in my response to PU, This thing is bigger than the prez and everyone knows it. People who blame the prez are just airing fustration or are just plain delusional. I am hearing that inventory in the condo buildings in Miami are drying up is and prices have stabalized, that a correct assessment of the market from your POV?

  12. LUCAS, I hope we can get some insight from you on the TRUE market conditions in MIAMI.One says this and another says that….I still dont know who to believe.Is the market really stabilizing, or is it as poor as we are hearing.I havent seen any stats at all lately.Thank you

  13. MMT, i think prices have stabilized compared to the disaster that was 2008-2009. But I am not sure they have stopped dropping in price. We are in a very unique situation where most buyers are looking at prices the seller just cannot afford to offer the product at, due to leveraged loans. When units do sell, it is quick and at a reasonable price. In several buildings I follow, when the unit is sold sub $200 sq ft, it moves FAST. But Units above $300 sq ft languish for months (and even years). Drying up of inventory is a bit misleading. There are many, many units sitting in hiding, with owners praying the prices rebound so they can sell. Deals are to be had right now, for sure, but there is still more pain to come i am afraid. The market will clear, but in fits and spurts.

  14. Gables

    How can you have a deal today when the pain is ahead. I am not sure about your math. 3-2=1 not 2. There is a big difference between $200 ft2 and $300 ft2. If you owe more than the value of your property, you can not sell. Unless you can make up the difference. On otherhand if you are living in the home for free, there is no reason to sell. There is no carrying cost……..

    In past 30 days – market has dried up. I guess we need to print the money fast before the next credit freeze. 7 million homeowners not paying mortgage or taxes. That is loss of 7 billion in rental money PER MONTH.

  15. There is a big difference between $200 and $300 sq ft. One is the offer price, the other the ask price. The gap needs to be filled somehow-that is why so many higher priced units are on the market for a long period of time. Question becomes, who gives in first. Sellers cannot drop their price due to mortgage. But buyers cannot afford the higher priced units-too much take home pay going to housing cost. Somethings got to give. Unless inflation kicks in through higher wages, my bet is housing will continue to fall through continued REO activity and short sales. The foreclosure process will continue into the forseeable future.

  16. If you followed Japan from 90′s, banks kept the real estate (REO) on th books for over 15 years with government support. It killed their economy but it protected the banks.

    There is no way to sell the homes if the owners do not have any carrying cost such as mortgage or taxes. They can stay in there for free till about year or two after the judgement of foreclosure has been issued. This figure will increase further. Banks on otherhand, have no reason to speed up foreclosures because they receive orders from the government. As we have seen from the Wikileak fiasco, this government has enormous control over the private business in this country. It is called the Chicago way of doing things.

    So in the nutshell, Buyers will not get the mortgages to buy at asking prices. Sellers have no reason to sell. Eventually, inflation will catch up and all the debt along with peoples savings will disappear. People who have debt will be set free and people who have the saving will be poor.

    Average household income in miami was $45000. Which equates to home affordability of $135K

  17. P&U, you carry a bit too much conspiracy theory in your foreclosure arguments. Banks and curent homeowners are just stuck in a liquidity trap, with no easy way out unless they bite the bullet and take the loss-which none are willing to do. Japan also got whammied with a huge demographic shift to older folks who do not consume. Our shift will not be so severe.

  18. I was told again and again that I was wrong about the housing bubble. People supported by the media and @#$& were convinced that Miami real estate could never go down. Didn’t you read the Miami Herald banner articles about shortage of land in Miami?

    These are not the conspiracy theories. These are facts, unfortunately we are degrading our country like never before.

  19. PU, booms and busts are part of normal real estate cycles in S. Florida.
    This is not the first and I can almost guarantee this won’t be the last. Soon as inventory begins to dry up again (don’t know how long that takes) Realtors and their hacks in the media will begin to spin their web of lies again. Dumb buyers will buy into those lies and begin the next bubble. It is not the end of the world and people will always need a place to live be it rental or ownership.
    I myself hopes the RE market stays the way it is for the next 4 years. 18 months ago Great American companies were selling for what was essentilly below land values and people were calling for prices to go dramatically lower. Well we all see where those companies are today. In many places houses are selling for land value. Instead of bi***ing and moaning about how right you were you should be out taking advantage of this market.

  20. The Miami housing bubble might have been an opinion in 2008, but it was undoubtedly a fact in hindsight. No two ways about that.

  21. Makes Me Think — It’s going to be a very long time before another housing bubble exists in the U.S., at least on anything that resembles a national level. People might need housing, but no one is going to be giving out 103% liar loans for McMansions anytime soon.

    The next problem in Miami is going to be taxes. Miami is on the verge of financial implosion, yet the tax rates/increases are locked in by law. Something will have to give, and you can bet it will be higher r.e. taxes. I actually got to the point where I thought some units were reasonably priced, but then you look at the carrying costs and it’s a killer. In some of these buildings, it’s like flushing money right down the toilet.

  22. First time commenting here. Been reading for a while. I saw something that Joe wrote regarding the carrying costs and I wanted to comment. I completely agree with the outrageous carrying costs. I was once deciding between Boston and Miami and now I am happy about being back in Boston. Even though Boston has higher priced condos the total cost of ownership is still cheaper than Miami. Go Figure. It is the crazy condo fees (probably a huge chunk going to insurance), special assessments, and taxes. Also, in Boston we get a larger property tax reduction if the condo is owner-occupied. I remember looking at 700 square foot condos in Miami and seeing condo fees ranging from $600 to $800+ and taxes at $400+ per month. Then at some high rises you still had to pay another $150+ per month to park. A little ridiculous. And the part that worried me was that I could see those taxes going up (with Miami’s financial troubles) and the condo fees and special assessments going up as well for a number of reasons. Hopefully things will get better down there, but it’s not looking like the cost of ownership is coming down anytime soon.

  23. This is a future of Miami………. Seed was planted and it’s going to be harvest time!

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703865004575648900250047766.html

    Or you can google “The 25-Year ‘Foreclosure From Hell’”.

    Tell me how many houses are going to be foreclosed in future? Banks are having difficulties in getting the lawyers to process the paperwork and the lawyers find it hard to get a employee to sign the papers. Thank you OBAMA.

  24. Yes, cost associated with owning is definately higher but you have to consider that there is no personal income tax and you are living in the hurricane zone and the salt water is very harsh on buildings. It just cost more to live in those areas. Can you imagine if Florida had the jobs of Boston/NYC/Chicago and the cost of living of other southern states? It would be a mad house, everyone would be lining up to put down stakes. I don’t know if all the cost associated with these condos are justified, i suspect some of them may be execessive especially when dealing with insurance. No everyone has the means to own a condo.

  25. MMT and Jay, the cost of ownership is a bit high, but not outrageous. As you point out, no personal income tax-and property tax rates are similar to other areas of the country. High HOA are mostly due to hurricane insurance from coastal living-we choose to live in these high risk areas and thus need to pay for it. live in a nonseaside community if you want lower rates. there is some overpricing probably from management fees-but just a component to the problem, not the whole problem. as MMT said, cost of living is high enough to keep a flood of people from jamming into the area-an equilibrium of sorts is reached.

    P&U, love how you exagerate a foreclosure from 25 years ago-actually from the Reagan Era! These extreme foreclosure cases are rare to begin with-not common at all. Don’t blame Obama for the foreclosure problem, as discussed with Joe extensively. all the banks had to do is follow the law in filing to begin with! BoA has already resumed foreclosure proceedings.
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/40607653

  26. MMT – Good point about the personal income tax. I think it is a flat 5.3% in Mass. Imagine living in NYC where you have to pay a state and a CITY personal income tax. That is crazy.
    I know my parents looked at places in Florida and they said that the taxes and insurance costs were high. For example, a $500,000 house would pay around $10,000 in property taxes and due to the flood zones would have around a $10,000 insurance bill. Then you read articles where insurance companies are trying to raise rates and you wonder how people afford this. I just read an article the other day where one insurance company in So FLA wanted to raise premiums by 80%. Granted the state insurance commission probably won’t approve that, but I am sure they will still get a hefty increase.
    That same $500,000 house where we live now has a property tax bill of around $3,700 (after owner-occupied reduction) and insurance of $2,000. That’s a $14,000 difference!!! Unreal.

  27. problem is prices have come down some but taxes have not come down nowhere near what they should. Last 2 year I filed property tax appeals on several properties and finally got the taxes lowered last year after back and forth with the board of assessors. Felt good that tax bills were going to be lower on properties going forward (better ROI) felt good about myself. Guess what? This years tax bills came in not too long ago and for some reason taxes on all the properties are back up, was there a housing recovery I missed? Why are my taxes back up? Do I have to go back and fight this battle again? WTF! These bastards are determined to rip me off. Insurance is up this year too.

  28. Did you people missed the point? Article in WSJ – that woman is a instant millionaire. I wonder when they will start a realty show about “Live in this house – For Free”. There must be a huge line outside her house for consulting. Most if not all foreclosures in Miami are out of greed and gamble. I wish I could give few examples.

    Miami is a Banana Republic. People love to think they are rich with income of $50K/yr and no money in the bank. People love to compare Miami to New York, Paris, London and so on.

    Where do you think is Manhattan and Boston? How far are they from water? Do you think snow does not affect the condition of the building and maintenance cost? Miami loves show off. Few illegals to park cars and a arrogant doorman makes a building luxury.

  29. P&U, Manhattan and Boston are on the water, but not a hurricane threat compared to the south. insurance is the big cost in HOA fees-and that is just more expensive in the hurricane capital of Florida rather than Boston or New York.

    You are worried way too much about a very select few outlier stories regarding foreclosures. Not sure where that anger and resentment come from.

    MMT, not sure but i think many assessed values were dropped, but seems like the local government can simply up the millage rate to cover the shortfall. Anybody now the details on how local tax rates are actually set?

  30. I disagree with some of the last few comments that claim Miami’s living expenses aren’t all that bad. The taxes are outrageous and trending higher (and there’s been almost no adjustment for the massive price declines, so it’s a double whammy for most people), and the general pricing is out of whack to begin with. As someone mentioned, the average household income in Miami is something like $40,000 or $45,000, which means the average person can really only afford a house worth about $120,000 to $140,000 (or even less, when you factor in the cost of hurricane and/or flood insurance). Yet average Miami prices are still way beyond those price points, even after the r.e. implosion. (And I don’t care what anyone says, paying $125,000 for a bargain-basement REO or short sale and then paying taxes + $600/mo. in condo fees is neither a bargain nor a smart investment.)

  31. Joe, the reality is the tax rates (and even total tax payments) are not really out of line with most municipalities in the North. A 2.5% property tax rate is what I have paid in the past in the north-same as Miami. Now in the years 2004-2008 the assessed values of the property was higher-due to a bubble as well as living on a desirable coastal community. But no longer. HOA are high because of insurance-that is due to your choice of location on a hurricane coast. When you account for the lack of personal state income tax, I have yet to see a valid comparison between Miami and other large cities which cries MIA to be so unaffordable. It is costly, yes, but at a surprisingly small delta compared to many other cities. Uncertainty in employment and lower overall wages can create affordability issues, but the absolute value of the cost of living is not that outrageous in MIA with a good REO purchase. This outcome surprised me a bit. Note this is all based on 2B condos selling at around the $200k mark-common for distressed properties now and probably into the future.

  32. gables — Not sure why you’re being an apologist for a dysfunctional area. Governments in So. Fla., especially Miami, were quick to raise assessments during the boom, but they haven’t come close to readjusting those assessments downward to reflect current market prices/values. People are forced to file individual protests, only to have the Miami government claim that foreclosures and short sales and REOs aren’t “true comps” for assessment purposes.

    Regardless of that nonsense, it simply can’t be disputed that Miami is on the brink of financial implosion, which means taxes will be rising further still while services will likely be cut. Hell, even during the boom, when Miami was flush with taxpayer dollars, it still wasn’t doing much of anything. In the past 10-plus years, Miami residents have paid something like $1 billion in transit taxes which were supposed to finance an expansion of mass transit, but instead, mass transit has been CUT. So. Fla. governments are robbing people coming and going. I can’t believe anyone would dispute this.

    Furrther, for you to use a “good REO purchase” as your baseline for affordable living in Miami just proves MY point rather than yours. Given that Miami has one of the worst job markets in the country, it’s fairly absurd that someone would need to come to Miami and find a “good REO purchase” just to live affordably.

  33. Joe, not sure why you always need to pick a fight with everybody who posts. I was simply pointing out some inconsistencies with supposed “truths” regarding Miami real estate. Truth is many properties I have been looking at have taxes of around $5k-$7k per year. I have looked at many properties in the Midwest where property taxes were above $5k per year, in addition to personal income tax. Today tax burdens in Miami are not as outrageous as posted on this site-unlike say 5 years ago. Use of tax money is a different story-and I never commented on that issue. You comment like I was defending government spending in Miami. I did no such thing-don’t create a strawman argument out of me to facilitate your apparent anger with south florida.

    The REO purchase is perfectly in line, considering such a large number of such purchases occupy the transactions in florida over the last year, and anticipate a large number into the future. I look at nothing but REO deals. you argue those transactions are not fairly used in comps for assessments, but I cannot use them to comp transactions myself? Don’t be a hypocrite.

  34. gables:

    1. Rebutting foolish comments does not = “picking a fight.”

    2. Comparing tax rates in So. Fla. with tax rates elsewhere is fairly silly absent a corresponding comparison of household income, job market, etc.

    3. Claiming So. Fla.’s taxes aren’t burdensome but then admitting So. Fla.’s “use of tax money” is bad/inefficient is unbelievably dumb. If people in the Midwest pay $7,000 in taxes and get $7,000 in value (good schools, etc.), while people in So. Fla. pay $7,000 but get $3,000 in value (lousy schools, mass transit cuts, etc.), then, by definition, the tax situation isn’t nearly as similar or equitable as you keep claiming.

    4. I understand full well that REOs offer the best value in So. Fla. right now, but that doesn’t change the fact the market as a whole is still massively out of whack vis-a-vis median household income and the strength (or, more accurately, weakness) of the local job market. If corrupt foreigners weren’t laundering billions of dollars in the So. Fla. r.e. market, I might be singing a different tune, but Miami r.e. is still an economic basket case. Even after 50 percent price drops, I haven’t been hearing about locals flocking into the new condos. As r.e. agents will admit, 90 percent of the action is with foreigners.

  35. gables:

    Bottom line, the r.e. boom was driven by people who (foolishly) looked at price rather than value. You seem to be making the same mistake in your r.e. pricing and tax analysis above.

  36. Joe, you are a fool. You obviously have a hatred for Miami, why I do not know. If somebody said the sky was blue, you would argue with them it was aqua. Obviously Miami will never be good enough for you to buy a home, so why even concern yourself with the city? Why not interest yourself in other well run cities-like Chicago, Vegas, LA, Phoenix or Houston? You are not a bear, you are just anti-world.

  37. gables:

    Ad hominem attacks are the last refuge of a person who is losing an argument. Sorry to see you going down that road, although I take some solace in the fact you felt compelled to do so.

    I don’t know why you insist on labeling me a Miami-hater. I like Miami very much — indeed, I both lived there for years and made dozens of trips there when it wasn’t home — but I’m not going to delude myself, or readers of this blog, into thinking it’s an affordable place to live for the average person. For most non-independently-wealthy people, Miami combines the worst of both worlds: A weak job market and a very high cost of living (and that cost of living will only trend higher and higher as Miami’s finances continue to weaken).

  38. Joe, I come out and call you a fool. You did the same in an indirect cowardly way, but try to claim the high road. Your terms such as “foolish”, “silly”, “unbelievably dumb”, “absurd”, “nonsense” were meant as insults. I call a spade a spade, and don’t hide behind rhetoric. It has nothing to do with losing arguments, since yours have no validity.

  39. I buy a distressed property 2B/2B condo in downtown area for around $200k, very possible for distressed properties in the past year. Say I have a household income of $90k (or consider $75k for a well off single). Can you find another major US city where it is cheaper to live in comparable new property next to the water-all taxes included? San Diego, San Fran, LA, NY, Boston, Seattle? Never. Perhaps Chicago, but its very cold. Cost of living in Miami is not so out of wack anymore, unlike five years ago. You are living with this “very high cost of living” view which is no longer correct, since housing has come down greatly. What realistic value do you see downtown Miami condos reaching before they are not labeled with a very high cost of living?

  40. gables:

    You used to be one of the reasonable people around here, but you seem to have gone off the deep end.

    First of all, calling me a “coward” while patting yourself on the back for “coming out and calling [me] a fool” borders on childish. Both of us are posting anonymously; are you really claiming I was afraid to call you a name? How absurd.

    As for your “distressed 2B/2B” example, you seem to be having trouble staying on topic. I’ve been talking about Miami in terms of an average buyer, not a couple or a “well-off single” who makes $75,000 or $90,000. (Again, for the third or fourth time, median household income in Miami is $45,000, not $75,000 or $90,000.)

    Regardless, as we’ve discussed here ad nauseam, the price of these condos is often almost irrelevant. On paper, a $180,000 or $200,000 condo might seem cheap, but when you add in taxes and then another $600 or $800 per month for HOA fees, the carrying costs can eat up any alleged “savings” on the purchase price within a year or two.

    You can talk here until you’re blue in the face, but you’re never going to convince me that a condo that has a monthly carrying cost that is almost 1:1 with (i.e., equal or almost equal to) the monthly mortgage payment is a good investment. You’re also never going to convince me that present-day Miami is an affordable place to live for the average resident. If that was true, locals would have snapped up the condos downtown, but we both know that didn’t happen. That’s why downtown is a big renter’s colony rather than owner-occupied.

  41. Joe, I call you a fool directly, you do it indirectly then claim innoncence. I only react to your behavior. I am reasonable when dealing with reasonable people, and harsh when people are unreasonable.

    The “topic” of this blog are Miami condos. By default, these were not built for the average Miami resident. They were built for white collar, upper middle class residents. You need to accept that idea. Home incomes of $75k to $90k, and up, are very reasonable for that category. This issue has been discussed on this blog many times. This blog is not about residents of West Kendall-go to a different blog if you want to argue their demographics. I see no relevence in discussing $45k household income on a blog about Brickell and Downtown Miami condos-they will NEVER be able to afford ownership in these locations.

    Have you actually done a legitimate cost of living calculation comparison between Miami and any other large US city? Personal income tax at the state and local level are great equalizers, which do not occur in Miami. The results will surprise you-I have done so myself.

    I have been one of the bears on this blog for several years-not as extreme as others but a bear nevertheless. However, conditions on the ground have changed. I am not a bull yet, consider me neutral for now. That is because the downside risk has been signficantly reduced if you are buying in the REO market-a rather active sector of SoFlo RE.

  42. Joe, market conditions have changed and therefore some people views have changed accordinly. In your case market conditions have changed significantly but you keep crying and complaining about the same things and your views of the market has not changed. Sounds like you are the one with the problem. You act like Miami has a monopoly on high taxes and corrupt politicians. I think before you start to complain about what is wrong with Miami you should visit other cities of comparable size, climate and Amenities. Joe, your opinions of Miami are valid but that is just your opinion. There are many people who may agree with your opinion of Miami but still choose to pay for these overpriced condos in a banana republic. Your point about the median income of families in Miami is a moot point because we all know Miami is a city of the have and the have not with a rather small middle class. Many people who choose to buy these condos have their primary residence somewhere else so I doubt their annual income is included in these numbers which may skew the numbers towards the lower end. You are very vocal about your disdain for Miami and how there is nothing special about the place but yet you are hell bent on owning a piece of this 3rd world banana republic. What gives man, why don’t you just forget about Miami and set your sights on a nice place in Chicago, Denver and be done with that 3rd world cesspool? I’ve heard San Diego is a pretty nice place, You should check it out.

  43. Guys, Question Any idea about referral fees? Meaning if you send 1/2 friends to your realtor & they end up buying condos through your realtor solely based on you referral is there any ballpark % fee?

  44. according to news report banks are begining to send out those credit card offers to people with bad credit like they did before the crash. They are trying to boost the bottom line with high intrest rates. Could it be that Mortgages will be soon to follow?

  45. interesting little story from a friend who is buying a new property. contract agreed and processed, but made a mistake of adding a $500 contingency item which is having difficulty being completed. Mortgage company won’t let them close until this item is completed. wont even let them just pay the cost in escrow up front in order to complete the deal. it is a meaningless item not worth the scrutiny of the bank. the catch is, great mortgage rate which will expire at the end of this month. consensus of all involved-buyers, sellers, RE, etc-is the bank is going to stall the deal at this low interest rate, and force them to refinance at over half a point higher in January. the $500 item will cost them thousands in mortgage fees. poor business practices by the bank. i would simply walk away from the deal, not sure what friend will do however.

  46. seanjohn, you should ask for 25% of the realtors commission. Make sure you make it very clear before giving the referral. This is pretty standard.

  47. Gables – Great story about your friend. Let us hear the details of the small $500 problem which can not be completed in one month. Happy Holidays to all!

  48. P&U, they should get some closure on the issue by the beginning of the year. Everybody but the bank is doing all they can to close the deal. banks couldn’t care less about a condo priced $150k too high a couple years ago, yet they are very concerned about the financial liability of a $500 home improvement today!

    Doing splendidly RT.

  49. Seanjohn, State of Florida Law which governs Real Estate Brokers and Agents prohibits them from paying Referral Fees to anyone who’s not Licensed as an Agent. Violation of the Law is cause for Fines and termination of Licensure. Besides a simple Thank You Card, some Agents thank their Friends for Referrals by giving them thank you gifts. The 25% Referral Fee that Omar mentioned is the typical amount that Brokers agree to with a written agreement when they refer a Buyer or Seller to another Broker.

  50. P&U, would love to know more details about some of those transactions. If it results in double the expected insurance premium, then people should pursue as fraud. What if these deals result in a 10% premium on the insurance cost? Chalk it up to the cost of living in Miami? The problem we have is HOA fees-and items included-are a bit murky for many buildings, so potential buyers have a difficult time assessing valid costs versus abuse versus fraud. Don’t expect clarity on HOA fees, but would certainly like some!

  51. Hi Everyone i am looking for some advice … i like to purchase a condo at Neo Vertica do you have any advice…. any info about the building and etc? im not from Miami looking to move down and for the right deal …. thnx

  52. Radi, you definitely need to visit the area first. The building had some initial construction quality problems, not sure how that has turned out. Some of the units have very good deals, but the location today is not optimum-ie there is a not some comfortable area between the building and walkable areas, particularly at night. Long term, assuming construction continues to progress inland, a value buy there would be ok. But in the near term, I would look for REO located in better parts of Brickell and downtown.

  53. I would not recommend neo-vertica. have you had a chance top see the building yet? You can find nice deals in higher quality buildings with better location.

  54. Well I finished up my first semester at UM’s Real Estate Development program and I thought I’d share some recurring themes that came up along the way.

    The first one is urban infill. During the boom we got out of hand and built homes anywhere we could fit them. Now we have Echo Boomers moving into household formation ages and it’s clear that most don’t want or can’t afford the millions of suburban homes. And Boomers are looking to downsize and move back closer to the city and their children and grandchildren. The result is that you have huge demand in many well located urban sites and huge amounts of inventory in suburban locations with no close employment centers.

    This leads me to my next theme. I’ve spoken with many developers and attended many conferences and rental multifamily is the new rage. There just isn’t enough of it in good locations. Expect new projects to start breaking ground in 2011.

    You really can’t look at numbers for the entire city because they are almost pointless. You’ll have a urban neighborhood doing great and a suburban neighborhood doing terrible and when you average the two you get numbers that aren’t representative of either.

    Brickell is a good example. I’ve been watching prices here every since I moved and they are slowly and steadily creeping up. I honestly don’t think you can go wrong with anything in Brickell at the current pricing. The only new inventory that is even remotely close to possibly getting underway soon is Skyline. I think they are about 60% pre-sold and could possibly get going in 2011 if they get another 10% – 20% of the units pre-sold. They’ve been taking plenty of international trips to round up buyers.

  55. Radi,

    A friend of mine just completed a short sale in Neo. The location isn’t that bad but isn’t optimal which accounts for the pricing. Average price per square foot at Neo is about $170. I stay right in the heart of Mary Brickell Village where all the action is and the average price per square foot is about $250. Since I live here everyday I think its worth the extra money but if you’re not going to be here full time then it wouldn’t be that big of a deal.

    I’m not into the whole exposed concrete, modern loft look but its not bad. There is a great Irish pub called Waxy’s O’connors located on the ground floor along the river. A great place to watch UM or Heat games. I wouldn’t be concerned with gables remark about it being walkable at night. I could see how someone who doesn’t live in Brickell would have those concerns but it’s changed so much that these views just aren’t accurate. If you look on a map you would walk down 1st ave to get to Mary Brickell Village which is the only place you should be walking to anyway. There is a lounge between 7th and 8th that is pretty busy so you’ll be cool walking that way. Or if you walk east down 7th toward S. Miami there are a few good spots with the best one being a bar called tobacco road. So whether you’re walking south or east toward Mary Brickell Village you be cool. The only place I wouldn’t recommend is going west of 1st ave. But there isn’t anything of interest that way anyway. And I stay out late until 4 or 5 am. I partied with a few classmates at club 50 in Icon a couple weeks ago and then walked at 4 am to Latitude which is the building west of Neo with no problems.

  56. Gixx, good go hear from you again.
    Oil is above $90/bbl again and some expect it to be much higher by the summer driving season. Wonder how that will affect the sales of condos in downtown Miami. The Herald also reported that there was a huge increase in the number of condo sales in the county during the month of November. Prices of single family homes were also up during that period.
    Beginning to wonder how long will it be before we are back to a bubble in Miami RE. I know this sounds crazy but remember folks they are not building anymore condos right now and by the time they start again commodities prices will be out of this world. Just saying!

  57. Copper is already at all time highs. Many residents have already stripped their units of all the plumbing. Bankruptcy attorneys now accept copper as payment.

    Florida land boom of the 1920s was primarily the same thing that happened today. Once buyers vanished the market collapsed. Miami is still attracting suckers who are looking for a quick buck. It’s almost game over for Miami real estate. The foreigners are almost sucked dry.

  58. Gixxer, glad you had a successful first semester at UM. Hope it is all you dreamed of and more.

    Still sticking with your call of a 2nd quarter 2009 bottom in MIA real estate?

    Agree with you on greater interest from a variety of folks, old and young, on more urban settings. But there is a big question mark with respect to the boomers moving back into the city. Many own a home already-and with housing prices falling for several years they may not be able to sell a home and move to these new locations. In addition, many have taken equity out of their homes for children’s education, vacations, home improvements, etc. Will be interesting to see if the desire to live in these urban settings transfers into demand. As many have posted, much of the MIA downtown condo demand has been from cash buyers and foreigners. So the boomer demand has not hit, at least not yet.

  59. gables,

    It’s been pretty good so far. I’ve definitely run into a lot of the things Joe constantly harps about and while this is a very disorganized, corrupt place there is still a lot of opportunity here. If you’re the type of person who only sees black or white then this isn’t the place for you. But if you can accept things for what they are and realize that you’re not going to change the world overnight then I think most people will find that the positives greatly out weigh the negatives.

    Yeah I’m still sticking with 2nd quarter 2009 as the bottom with the caveat I made early that recovery will really be the tale of two cities. Most suburbs are still going to see some pain while good urban areas are on the way up.

    So if you are sitting on the sidelines and waiting to buy you’ll be comforted by the news headlines constantly saying that housing values are down or flat. But If I were in that position I would be looking specifically at which area I want to buy in. Urban areas like Brickell are doing good as well as good suburban areas with employment centers like Doral are doing good as well.

    As far as boomers go it will probably really be a mixed bag. You stated some obvious reasons why many cant head back to the city. Another reason is that now with less echo boomers looking to head to the suburbs they have even less potential buyers. But they key here is not that all the boomers cant move back to the city but that a size-able portion will want to, which is a big change. For the last 50 years pretty much everyone has been heading to the suburbs. We’ve finally figured out that this was a failed experiment. Building more roads only encourages more people to move and drive times only go up. Now millions of people are stuck living miles away from anything interesting. Contrary to the rest of the world a good portion of most of our cities were built after the creation of the automobile.

    The suburbs in great locations will be saved with things like town centers being built in them. But the ill placed suburbs will probably deteriorate, more foreclosures will come and people will leave and probably rent somewhere else.

  60. Gixxer: If the wishes were horses…………….

    Would you put your money where your mouth is or be a Miamian and talk big about all the North Koreans and Chinese buying the property in Miami because it is a warm place to live. Have you even admitted as yet that there was a housing bubble in Miami?

    The only reason, Miami prices have not hit the bottom as yet is because of rampant corruption and friendly administration who wants to keep the deadbeats in homes without paying rent.

    Here is ECON 101 – Theory of supply and demand. The invisible hand guiding the market. Price discovery……..

    Can you explain what you mean by Brickell and Doral are doing well?

  61. I concur about the fate of suburban America. Large burbs with good rail connections to metro areas will do OK, but smaller ones with brutal commutes will wither away. Spread out America simply cannot compete with compact industrial powerhouses like Japan, Germany and Korea, since inefficient transportation over long distances adds to the costs of production.
    Once gas hits $4/gallon, downtown revitalization will gather steam again.
    Far-flung suburbs are relic of cheap-gas era, and are certainly on a way out.
    That means that ‘vacant housing” numbers should be viewed sceptically. Most of these empty structures will never be inhabited again. Travel across America reveals a rather dilapidated country with an old and rapidly decaying housing stock. Great deal of it will be demolished, not sold and repaired.
    I am turning quite positive on housing, particularly on the hardest-hit areas like Miami.

  62. When have I ever tried to deny there was a housing bubble in Miami???

    And yes I’m prepared to put my money where my mouth is. I’ve been looking at 2/2 is Brickell and quite honestly the prices are either staying flat or going up, all the while rent is only going up. I’m guessing I have another year and a half before the pendulum swings in favor of owning. If I currently wasn’t paying $60k school while attending full-time I’d probably be buying right now when I have the most bargaining power and interest rates are extremely low. I don’t feel pressure to buy right now but I also don’t think I’m going to get a better deal by waiting a year or so. But this is because I’m pretty sure I’m going to stay in Brickell. When looking at some more suburban areas I’d probably be better off waiting.

    Here is a table showing 3rd quarter YoY results by zipcodes:

    http://www.dqnews.com/Charts/Quarterly-Charts/Miami-Palm-Beach-Charts/ZIPFLDADE.aspx

    You’ve got some zip codes down 50%, others up 30% with the average for the entire area down 16%. So if you’re willing to live ANYWHERE in Dade county then obviously you should be waiting. But most people aren’t willing to live anywhere and want to live in specific neighborhoods. And if you want to buy in one of the area’s that up 20%, 30% 40% etc. I don’t see the point in sitting around pointing out the average is down 16% when that average is because houses out in the west end of Kendall are down 46%. No seller in Brickell is going to buy the argument that they should reduce their price because houses over an hour away in Kendall are selling for nothing.

    What’s to explain about what I mean by Brickell and Doral doing well??? It’s pretty obvious that Brickell is only getting better. Prices are up, sales are up, rents are up. People are moving in and the area is growing. I’ve been here less than six months and I’ve already seen changes.

    Because of the local economy Doral is doing good as well. Here is a article talking about it:

    http://www.therealdeal.com/miami/articles/doral-emerging-as-residential-bright-spot-driven-by-thriving-commercial-market

    I’ve spoken directly with a developer that will be starting a new residential project in Doral in 2011. This goes back to what gables and I were talking about earlier. People want to live where they work and Doral has a decent supply of jobs.

  63. Hope everyone enjoyed the holidays.

    IMO, all we need to know about the state of Miami real estate investing is that there hasn’t been a new article posted here in a whopping 45 days.

    I’d love to see the percentage of owner-occupied units in Miami for units purchased in 2010. I’d be shocked if it’s 20 percent.

  64. Gixxer 1000 — Glad you’re enjoying school (and life in Miami in general). It sounds like you’re still in the honeymoon phase, but if you’ve already seen “a lot of the things” I’ve talked after just 3-4 months, then I can’t wait to hear what you’re saying after a few years.

    Re: that dgnews.com chart, by my count only about 8 zip codes in Dade showed appreciable gains, and at least 5 of them had low or very low sales volumes. By contrast, I counted *62* zip codes in Dade that declined, including an almost 30 percent decline in 33139, Dade’s most illustrious zip code. I just don’t see how you, or anyone, can look at that chart and see good news.

  65. Joe,

    “IMO, all we need to know about the state of Miami real estate investing is that there hasn’t been a new article posted here in a whopping 45 days.”

    Looking at how many articles a realtor posts on his blog as a barometer for the real estate market seems like the logic you would utilize.

    “I’d love to see the percentage of owner-occupied units in Miami for units purchased in 2010. I’d be shocked if it’s 20 percent.”

    The last time a survey was done by the DDA for the downtown Miami condos the number was 48% owner and 52% renter.

    “but if you’ve already seen “a lot of the things” I’ve talked after just 3-4 months, then I can’t wait to hear what you’re saying after a few years.”

    I think you’re missing my point. You like to point out that things exist and then extrapolate them to fit you negative view. I’m simply pointing out that I confirm that some of these negative things exist buy the result is nowhere near as bad as what you make them out to be.

    For example the site approval process for development is very “political”, or as you would say corrupt. More so than other places I have lived. But regardless most developers find ways to work through it. Is there more dealing going on yes, but things still get done.

    “I just don’t see how you, or anyone, can look at that chart and see good news.”

    I don’t see where anyone said that chart showed “good news”. You seem to be the one in this eternal black and white debate that the market is either good or bad. The point of the chart was to show that the areas where people WANT to live are doing well. Did it ever cross your mind to actually look at where the zip codes that are doing good are located?

    33149
    Key Biscayne, nuff said.

    33128
    Growing area just off downtown along the river.

    33130
    Downtown west of Brickell and along the river.

    33131
    Brickell, again nuff said.

    33132
    Downtown, CBD, Park West, Media and Entertainment District.

    33136
    Medical District. UM is building there new life sciences park and attracting a lot of professionals.

    33137
    Wynwood, Edgewater, Midtown, etc.

    33144
    Decent priced homes near Coral Gables

    33161
    North Miami

    33182
    Subdivision with close proximity to Doral

    33190
    New subdivision with large homes and water views

    How cares if all the zip codes in Homestead are doing bad. Most people don’t want to live in Homestead. During the boom people got drunk on credit and started building units any and everywhere. Even if the units in Homestead stay empty for years to come that isn’t going to have any effect on say Downtown.

    Then you can look even closer at other zip codes and more trends. For example if you look at the zip codes that cover Coconut Grove they are showing that the median price is down. However these zip codes cover a lot of area and if you’re even remotely familiar with Miami then you know there are good and bad ares that are only a street apart. But if you look at the condos in Coconut Grove which are located primarily in the better areas and you’ll see that the median values are up.

    So I’m not trying try to say that the overall market is good. I’m saying that the desirable areas are getting better and the undesirable areas are getting worse. There are more undesirable areas so the overall average is down. But this does nothing for the people that want to live in these urban desirable areas.

    If you want to buy in these desirable areas then you should at least be looking specifically at these areas now, especially with interest rates where they are. The cost to own in these areas is primarily only going up.

  66. Gixxer 1000 —
    —–> Glad you’re enjoying new life in Miami. I knew you would. You did your research so you knew what to expect, plus being a person that looks at the glass as being half full always helps. I replied back to your email last week. I am sorry it took a few months, but I was on that project in New England and I just got back. I will check that email account more often now.
    —–> I agree with your posts 1000%. You are right on the money. I have also noticed that prices on the new condos in Brickell/Downtown/Midtown have stabilized and have stayed steady for the last year or so. A few of the buildings prices have went up a little bit. So I do think that I bought mind at the bottom of the Brickell condo market.
    —–> Just FYI Infinity is 48% sold now. They have been selling around 16 units per month. However in Dec they sold 29 units. They are selling around $250 per foot on average. That is $50 more a square foot then I paid. So I do think that I bought at the bottom of the Brickell Market and the Infinity Market. Infinity’s investor (Starwood), has just completed upgrades to the infinity building. They re-did the lobby, the large driveway entrance and the roof top sun deck that the penthouse level units have access to. It looks good and I am glad I didn’t have to pay for the upgrades.

    Joe-
    —-> Do you ever just feel like throwing in the towel when it comes to debating things with Gixxer 1000? If it was me I would bow to his logic and slowing back away?

  67. owneratinfinity said: “Do you ever just feel like throwing in the towel when it comes to debating things with Gixxer 1000? If it was me I would bow to his logic and slowing back away?”

    – Well, I guess you’re a lesser man than me. ;-)

    Just a few months ago, Gixxer 1000 was bloviating on how So. Fla. was such a wonderful place to live, blah blah blah, and how the entire market/region should be just fine. Now suddenly he doesn’t care that *62 ZIP CODES* showed a huge decline, and he’s narrowed his bullishness to a small subset of zip codes, several of which had sales volumes so low that they’re essentially statistically insignificant.

    For someone whose logic is allegedly so unassailable, Gixxer 1000 tends to overlook some basic r.e. truths. One of these truths is that downtown Miami, contrary to the glossy brochures of the boom era, has become a huge renter’s colony. Another, related truth is that condos, which have a mediocre record to begin with, have a HORRENDOUS track record when a majority of a unit’s occupants are renters rather than owners. I see no reason why downtown Miami, which is being propped up by foreign buyers rather than local workers or U.S. second-home buyers, will outperform history.

  68. Joe,
    Being lesser man than you is simply impossible. Can’t say exactly what it is, but something is terribly wrong with you. Sad display, really.

  69. “I see no reason why downtown Miami, which is being propped up by foreign buyers rather than local workers or U.S. second-home buyers, will outperform history.”

    This is a pretty lame argument. You act as if one day the tropical climate will turn frigid, the ocean will evaporate, airplanes will cease to exist and foreigners and second home buyers will no longer have a desire to buy in Miami.

    And I don’t know why you are so fixated on renters. First you keep trying to create your own alternate reality where you claim you’d be surprised if 20% of the condos were owner occupied when recent surveys put it at 48%. All the renters in downtown is a GOOD thing for owners. This is a downtown urban environment. You don’t want foreign buyers and second home owners because they aren’t here half the time but then you don’t want renters that are here all the time. You’ve constructed it in your brain that if 100% of the units aren’t lived in by the person who actually owns the unit then its somehow a failure, which is a complete false argument especially in a downtown environment. The ownership rate in Manhattan is around 25%. You are completely clueless and so you use non logical arguments that make sense to you because you have no understanding about the subject.

    Yes downtown Miami will become a huge “renter’s colony” because that’s what a downtown is SUPPOSED to be. These renters will result in higher values for current owners. The increase people in the area ensure that the area will increase in value. That renters are the reason Whole Foods the movie theater at Met will happen. Owners don’t have to worry about competition for a long time because when the next buildings are built they will most likely be rental buildings. The problem came when to many rental buildings were converted to condos, leaving no place for renters to go.

    And I did NOT narrow my “bullishness” to 6 zip codes. The zip codes were just an example. I thought I made that clear when I talked about Coconut Grove. The zip codes for Coconut Grove are DOWN. But if anyone really wanted to buy a condo in Coconut Grove it would probably be in one of the condos near Coco Walk and Main St. where all the restaurants are. And what do you know:

    http://www.condoreports.com/real-estate-reports/coconut-grove_market_ownership_4

    Condo sales and price per square foot are up. So you can sit at your computer while not living in Miami and tell some random person that prices are still declining in Coconut Grove and be correct. But for the person that wants to but an actual condo in the area you’d be completely wrong. Furthermore when you look at most of the prices per square foot right now they are being affected by bulk buyers. Obviously if you’re looking to buy just one unit you’re not going to get the same deal that a bulk buyer is getting.

    I know you’ve said that you’ve lived here before but you seem to have no understanding of the areas here. Who cares if all the zip codes out in homestead are down? How is that going to affect someone buying a condo in Coconut Grove? So you can argue about 62 zip codes or whatever else but the majority of condos are located in the desirable, stable areas.

  70. Joe, just curious what you would consider a realistic and acceptable percentage of renter vs owner occupied homes in the downtown area? does it compare worse than other big cities with downtown condos?

  71. Banks have more people on upside-down mortgages than people who have already defaulted (that’s the sad reality)

    When the single-family home market crashes this year… and it will be huge… the condo prices will go so low… that those buying today will regret it almost as much as those who bought at the peak of the boom…

    This is probably the only logical reason banks refuse to finance most condos in Florida and California…. Nevada is starting to get some finance because prices are really depressed in Vegas.

  72. Gixxer

    D D A ???

    Ha! Ha! Ha! You mean to say – You actually believe what DDA reports say? You must also believe NAR and Santa.

    Un……believable………..

    Oh! forgot. You go to school to learn real estate. No wonder.

    Have a happy new year.Stick to using other people’s money in your real estate ventures or you will not last for a month.

  73. Miami is not a monolithic market.
    Miami has a large number of poor living in close proximity to the very wealthy. Most people on this site are not interested in living in the marginal areas. I would venture to say most are interested in living in prime areas. It is somewhat pointless to argue that many areas in Miami are still declining while ignoring the fact that prices in areas you and i are interested in are actually rising. Real Estate is local so if you are interested in living in SB or Brickell then your attention should be directed towards those markets and not what’s happening in the far reaches of Dade. Joe, you are interested in buying in SB, you have great disdain for the rest of Miami so why do you spend so much of your time arguing about what goes on in the greater Miami market. your focus should be on the SB market not what goes on in zip codes in which you have no interest. The most desirable places have held up nicely and has started to rebound while the least desirable places has continued to languish and may continue to deteriorate. You and Gixx may be both right. The desirable zip codes have rebounded from their lows from 2009 while the least desirable will in all likelihood continue to decline. Myself and others have stated that first half of 2009 was the best time to buy one of those prime condo’s in prime location. So far it think that has turned out to be the case.
    Prices have begun to increase and inventory of those prime units are almost gone now. You have to realize that while the prices have increased over that of 2 years ago the quality of the units available today are less desirable. So while prices have increased marginally in those buildings you are now paying the higher prices for a less desirable unit because the most desirable units were bought up almost 2 years go. You are now comparing apples to oranges

  74. Poor and Unemployed,

    Why don’t you actually READ the report. The report is not prepared by the DDA. The information in the report is prepared by Goodkin Consulting and Focus Real Estate Advisors both of which are very reputable companies. Furthermore the majority of the information is simply complied facts from public records and the sources are cited with the report for you to check if you want.

    If you disagree with the information fine. But how about you provide the information and sources for information that would prove otherwise.

    Only an idiot would try and use the fact that someone is going to school to study something as a negative. I feel like I’m talking to Sara Palin. The fact that you have no actual formal education in real estate actually makes you more knowledgeable about real estate?????

  75. Ok guys, here’s one for ya: AVENTURA. I barely read you mention it. I’m looking at the 2b units at The Venture building there. I like the fact that it’s next to Loehmann’s plaza. I pay cash. Prices are around $175,000. It’s not for me to live, it’s to rent, an investment, and maybe live in the future. I would love your opinion on this. Anyone got 2 cents?

  76. Poor and Unemployed,

    How is that blog post even remotely related to this conversation? You’re just as bad as Joe where you take random bits of info and opinion and combine them to make whatever argument you want.

    First I called out a report that gives the percent of owners, renters, average monthly rent, average price per square foot, etc. in DOWNTOWN Miami. You tell me this information is wrong because it’s reported by the DDA even though the study is performed by independent real estate consultants. These consultants through looking at pubic records and performing studies report that 48% of the approximately 22,000 condos are owner occupied while 52% are filled with renters. There are over 300 sales per month and another almost 400 leases per month. The average rental rate is up to $1.84 per square foot, etc. etc.

    Now could they missed a few people in there surveys and made a few errors and 42% are owner occupied instead of 48% or calculated the average monthly rent at $1.84 when it should have been $1.79? Maybe. But you come on here and say this information is incorrect simply because you don’t want it to be and then in response you use a BLOG as your rebuttal. Even worse the blog has nothing to do with Miami. It’s a guy’s PREDICTIONS about future NATIONAL housing prices. And in this guy’s “expert” opinion he comes to this conclusion:

    “My guess:
    I think national house prices – as measured by these repeat sales indexes – will decline another 5% to 10% from the October levels. I think it is likely that nominal house prices will bottom in 2011, but that real house prices (and the price-to-income ratio) will decline for another two to three years.”

    I don’t doubt that national housing prices could decline another 5%. But how in the world does this guys guess on a blog about national home prices relate to a report about downtown Miami condos? Or even Miami condos in general. If I were buying a Miami Condo I wouldn’t be concerned about the prices of single family homes in Homestead let alone houses in another state. I guess location means nothing when dealing with real estate prices.

    You guys keep reading blogs so you make random arguments about the national housing market and I’ll keep looking at market information to identify trends in actual Miami neighborhoods because as you pointed out I actually go to school to learn this. But I’m sure your random blog method will work out fine for you.

  77. Gixxer, agree with you that a national report does not directly tell you what happens in Miami. But you are very foolish to imply calculated risk blog has no relevence. He has nailed the economy and real estate issues over the past few years, and does so mostly through analytic number crunching rather than opinion and guess. Not your ordinary “blog”-he is a very intelligent person on economics and real estate.

  78. I have been following calculated risk for years. As you can see from my post here I love analytical number crunching. But after calculated risk grew to fame after providing insightful analysis of the situation it became clear that the majority of followers are more interested in hearing only one thing. That’s not to say that the information provided isn’t valuable. But you have to discern between the actual factual information presented and the opinions presented(mostly to appease the readers).

    Show me where the actual information posted on the blog is showing that the percentage of owner occupied units in downtown is not 48% or that the average rent is not $1.84. Again Poor and unemployed implied that this information within the DDA report is wrong. And this is what he posts when I ask that he post information that proves otherwise. If we were having a conversation about national home prices then that would be different.

    This is the problem with blogs today. Some random guy post an blog with 50% facts and 50% opinion inferred from those facts and people start reporting the entire blog and cant discern the facts from opinions. Read through the post and see how many times you see words like “if”, “might”, “I expect”, etc. And in the end its simply worded in a way to give himself multiple ways out.

    For example he’s saying real prices could drop 5% – 10% but nominal prices will drop less. Well nominal prices are what most people are discussing. So if real prices drop 5% and nominal prices are less then nominal prices could drop 2%, 1% or even 0%. And that price to income prices wont bottom for another 2 to 3 years but that’s trick because incomes will obviously be changing. Its nothing more than some good analytics followed by some Nostradamus like predictions.

    There were exactly 0 facts in that post to infer anything about downtown condos. Regardless of how intelligent he is, three was nothing in that post to substantially relate to this CURRENT conversation. I even agreed with his overall self proclaimed “guess”.

    And I can’t seem to find where I said that the blog has no relevance. Simply that is has no relevance on what we were specifically debating.

  79. I agree with Gixx on calculated risk. The blog is mostly geared towards Cali. Housing data, more particularly San Fran area where the blog author is based.
    Many of the premises are made based on California housing stats not individaul cities or particular areas within your city. For Example many on the blog argues it is much better to rent than to own when the truth is just the opposite in most parts of the USA outside of the Costas(east and West). In many places like Atlant,Cleveland, Detroit, Cincy and many other cities the cost of ownership is much less than renting. You won’t find much talk about that on that blog because many of the posters are from High priced states like Ariz, Cal and FL.

  80. never read the comments posted on that blog, so could not say how the readers trend. the main posts are very informative, providing usually sound interpretation to the data presented (or linked). that is not guessing or a nostradamus like prediction, but analysis of the data. some may disagree with the analysis and interpretation, but at least it is based on data rather than ideology. good blog.

  81. P&U, dont think that really applies to the condos we look at on this board, in downtown and Brickell. think condo conversions in the western front, or the housing developments in the swamp.

  82. Gixxer 1000 never learns — he’s still comparing Miami to Manhattan.

    The link I read a while back said that 48% of RECENT SALES were owner-occupied, not 48% of all downtown condos. Big difference.

    As for my historical arguments being “lame,” I’ll take 50 years of Miami and national real estate history over some guy (Gixxer 1000) on a blog who showed up in Miami 3 months ago and thinks he’s smarter than everyone else.

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