A Preview of 500 Brickell
May 20, 2008
by: Lucas Lechuga
Last Thursday night, I attended the brokers preview party for 500 Brickell. It was great to be in the company of the one or two Realtors left in Miami. Okay, I’m exaggerating a bit. The place was actually pretty packed. The wine was flowing and the hors d’oeuvres were everywhere. The picture above was taken from the rooftop pool on the 42nd floor.
Jorge Perez attended the party. Jorge gave free copies of his newly published book “Powerhouse Principles” and stayed around to sign books. Above, Jorge is doing his rendition of “Love Me Tender” by Elvis Presley. I’m joking. Actually, he was thanking his staff and everyone involved in the 500 Brickell project.
I was actually very impressed with the amenities at 500 Brickell. It’s definitely a very “hip” building. That’s the word that kept coming to mind for me at least. Here you see the lobby of the east tower at 500 Brickell.
This is a shot of the Sports Bar room at 500 Brickell. The room also has a billiards table and a bar with flat-screen TVs which you’ll see below.
Another shot of the Sports Bar.
The spa was very nice, complete with a steam room and sauna.
A shot of the hot tub in the men’s spa room.
I’m kicking back in one of the reclining seats at the back of theater room watching “Bourne Ultimatum”.
Above is a shot of the fitness center. This is one amenity area that didn’t quite impress me. I found it to be rather small to accommodate the residents of the east and west towers at 500 Brickell.
The all-famous halo at 500 Brickell. I was laying back in a lounge chair as I took this shot. It was kind of trippy. I felt like I would be beamed up to the Related Group mother-ship at any moment. I spoke with an architect who worked on 500 Brickell who mentioned that the scattered windows running down the sides of each tower were to resemble water running down. I thought that was pretty interesting.
The kitchens were nice but they’re identical to the kitchens that you’ll find in the “Sky Residences” at Plaza on Brickell, so they were nothing new to me. Each of the condos at 500 Brickell comes with a Jacuzzi tub in the master bath that are the same, or at least resemble, the ones found in the “Sky Residences” at Plaza on Brickell as well.
The floor plans were pretty spacious and the bathrooms in most of the lines were rather large. However, the group I was with did find a major flaw in the 00 line of the east tower. The shot above is of the shower. Take note of how narrow it is. A slender lady in our group entered the shower and pretended to wash her hair. She couldn’t lift her elbows without hitting the glass. The 00 line does have the best views of all the 1 bedrooms at 500 Brickell but anyone looking to buy a condo in the 00 line should take note of the shower. You’ll definitely need to open up the space somehow. The showers in the other lines didn’t seem to have this problem.
The view to the south of Brickell at dusk was pretty killer. However, there is an office building currently under construction that will block much of this view. If you look closely, you can see the construction cranes in the foreground of the picture above.
A view to the northeast. The view of the Bank of America building directly to the north was also a nice sight, although you can’t see it in this picture. Personally, I much prefer the northern view at 500 Brickell over the southern view.
Here’s a shot of the east view. I thought Icon Brickell would block most of the views to the east at 500 Brickell but, as you can see, you still get nice views of Biscayne Bay and Brickell Key. Obviously, you do see Icon Brickell to the side but the visual distraction isn’t as bad as I thought it would be.
By the way, a few of you mentioned that the illuminating halo in the middle of the two towers might shed unwanted light into the condos residing on the interior of the condo development at 500 Brickell. I made sure to take a look at one of those condos to see if that was true. The halo didn’t shine a bit into the unit that I was in that night. There might be a few units where this might be a problem but I’m sure it’s nothing that some blackout shades can’t resolve.
No cup holders attached to the chairs in the movie theater lounge!
No Ping-Pong table in sports bar! I will pass!!!
Everything looks pretty nice, I’ll have to go and check out the units now that you gave us this tease.
Where’s the doggie grooming salon and massage room?
Lucas,
Your blog is great and so informative
On an unrelated note, I was wondering if you have had a chance to tour Met 1 since the closings began?
I hear appraisals are coming in quite low even for the most desirerable tower and lofts units on the curve with unobstructed water views.
The people I have heard from who have either taken the building tour or completed a walk-through are quite unhappy with the final product that was delivered.
Seems like another bate and switch from what was originally indicated. Low quality finishes and sub-par finishes were the opinions of most.
Would love to hear your thoughts as a professional about Met 1.
Thanks
Linda
lucas, would also like to get some updates on quite a few of the other towers that have come online within the last few months…….ie. Wind, Avenue on Brickell, Midtown 4, 1800 Club, Quantum on the Bay
linda i personally havent been inside met 1 .. but i would imagine that appraisals are not meeting standards. i know of a person who bought a 2 story 1 bedroom loft unit for 359,000 back in 2004 with only 920 sq ft. that is crazy high priced. now imagine a split floor plan that way how small it looks. that is why location is good as investment purposes but as end users you should really try and stick with a reputable developer. related group has consistency delivered on their promises in each of their buildings and delievered high end without cutting corners, as you can see with the pictures posted above. anyways here is a link (slideshow)to a peek inside met 1 if it helps out at all.
http://www.thinkmiami.com/met1/met1.php
press the scroll buttons to view inside
by the way the loft unit was floors 6 and 7 (two stories) facing the water or epic phase 2 if it gets built
JR56, Thanks for the pics, I haven’t been inside met 1 but have been curious about it. It looks very modern and sleek inside. The units look like just about every other layout in Miami but I gotta say I’m impressed with all the other stuff.
Beautiful building for a strong, beautiful city!
Isn’t there an office building go up right next door to 500? Possible taking away many views.
bc asked: “Isn’t there an office building go up right next door to 500? Possible taking away many views.”
Think nothing of it……that’s only the South views!
Doesn’t scratch the surface of the scam these “I wanna be Trump” shysters pulled off when the INTENTIONALLY MISLED people by FAILING TO DISCLOSE “THEIR” ICON plans and CHARGING EAST VIEW BUYERS A $45 sq. ft. “premium” for something they would “steal”….after thaking the “second” deposits.
I really like the pool and I thought the finishes were very nice. Lets see how the appraisals come in and how the closings go. There is so much inventory coming to Brickell
This building really seems to stand out…many amenities, good finishes, etc…..compared to a lot of what’s in Brickell, this building really stands out and should do well. As an end-user, I would want to live there….
you know…are any of these amenities really worth the price of admission? i mean, for a guy like me that works 8:30 to 7 and stumbles home, most of the stuff would rarely get used by one jcrimes. couple that with the fact that when i do have free time, some turd will screw up the theatre system or trash the weight room, and what benefits do i really ever get out of any of these amentities? do people actually use all this stuff? my take is that if i’m not using it, i don’ t want to pay for it to be maintained.
Heard there are lots of buyers running away from Epic final deposit due. What do you hear.
Give us the scop when you get back from doing the beat.
Yawnnnnnn.
Wake me know when these Condo’s hit $125 per sq ft.
I agree Condo market should be realisticlly priced from $125 – $200 a square foot.
$200 being the best of the best buildings.
Jcrimes: I agree. If I am not using it, I dont want to pay for it.
Also, hardwood floors in the gym…that is a bad idea. I am sure maintaining those floors will be tough.
I think there is segment of the population that would be impressed with the TV on the wall and other superficial stuff, but it does nothing for me. I would rather they spend the money on landscaping and the upkeep of the building.
Lucas
i never realized…you still have your fin300 book from professor oltheten?
I don’t think I had Oltheten. The name rings a bell though. I can’t remember who I had for Fin300. I never went to many of the lectures though. I’d pick up the syllabus, memorize the book material a few days before the midterms and finals and then ace the exams. Lectures never did much for me. I remember information much better after reading it.
Hey Lucas,
Great post. Thx for the pics…the building looks great…can’t wait to move in!!
the building IMO does look nice, however i really have nothing to compare it too. i havent been into many condos that have been recently completed.. how does this building compare to the likes of 50 biscayne, avenue, axis, etc..? the finishes and overall product?
Past week there were 3 good news from different sources
1. Wall St Journal says The economists are scratching their heads and wondering ‘what the hell happened to the recession?’ Wachovia put the odds of recession to 45% from a high of 90% just in April. People are saying there may never be a contraction even though we might chug along at an aneamic growth rate.
2. AP reported that this summer might be the best of times for wall street to come.
3. Fannie Mae will start buying mortgages with a 97% loan to Value ratio.
4, housing rescue bill is active in the congress and senate.( this last thing might do not much anyway)
That got me wondering;
20,000 units in Miami may seem a lot right now but eventually they will get absorbed. May be in 3-5 years all that excess inventory will be picked up by end users like ACE and MO for what ever prices they are hoping for (lets say Ace’s wishful thinking magic number of $125/sf for argument sake).
but then what? By 2013 there is no further inventory, demand is rising and no new buildings are being made. Do you know why?
Price of crude in 03-04 $80/bbl
Price of crude in 12-13 $240/bbl
Similarly cement and steel prices have either doubled or tripled since 03-04 to 12-13.
Construction costs would have doubled since 03-04 to 12-13. So to erect Paramount Park in 2012-2013 would be to the tune of $600-$700/sf. Then add the developers profit. They have to sell for $800-$900/SF.
Only 2 things can happen
1. The Parmount park will continue to remain a parking lot as demand is not there for a $800/sf building
2. There is enough demand and the building gets erected. If that happens, all other buildings around will be worth as much as the new buildings and the new economy.
I implore all the investors who are planning to dump and run, if you have, really have the capacity to carry the unit for 3 years to 5 years and meanwhile enjoy it as a 2nd home or rent it, you must keep the unit. especially if they are with great water views. It will be worth what you paid for and much more in 3-5 years. Miami water views and its weather are outstanding in the world. Only other comparison could be Sydney. So go the last mile if youy have a great water view unit and you shall be rewarded.
500 Brickell common areas look cheap and cheesy to me, The Gym looks ghastly. I am looking through a set of eyes that saw the absolute best in Q and 1800. So I use these two buildings as the Gold standard. Only 900 Biscayne and Asia surpassed Q and 1800. Met 1 kind of matched them. Every other new building fell flat on their face. I will reserve my judgement until Marquis, Paramount Bay, Epic open up to declare victory for Q and 1800 (I do not have much hope for Icon Brickell either).
The guillotine has not fallen, yet.
AJ, I think you should take those “PAIRS OF EYES” and perform Lasik on them. 1800 is one of the worst new bldg in Miami. Common areas are really Hialeah like. I do concur with you that Asia and 900 are so far one of the best new buildings that just came on-line. Their developers did not nickel and dime, and knew what they were doing.
Criterion, Wow, With a stroke of a pen (or a few taps) you disparaged a million people living in Hialeah! Where do you live?
“Worst new building”? Maybe you have an axe to grind with 18. This is the first time I heard anything as bizzare. Gym is great and probably the only other gym with such views are the one in 50 Biscayne. The pool deck and the bay side verandah is to be seen to be believed. It reminds me of resorts in Acapulco or cancun. The lobby is so beautiful and ultra chic. Show me such in Grove or Gables, leave alone Hialeah. Yes, you may be right about other lounge areas. 18 has just one big party room on the pool deck and it is very plain jane compared to the dramatic lounge areas of Quantum. But then you give some and take some, as Quantum lacks so many other things that 1800 offers. Thats life.
AJ
the fact that wall street might have a good summer doesn’t mean anything for the housing market in miami. making a killing on commodities and short strategies doesn’t change the dynamics of the ABS market. in any event, your economics are off
1. you’re assuming that inventory will be stagnant for the next 3-5 years and that people won’t try to sell the units they own, which of course, will add to the inventory figures.
2. you assume that demand for all of the inputs will continue to grow. if that’s the case, and i’m an investor that owns a condo that will keep on dropping in value in the short term (and you say i should hold on to my condo because eventually it will be a positive investment) why keep the condo in the first place? why not dump it take my loss and then put it all into one of the inputs you cite and start making money now?
3. real estate is driven by location. that’s obvious. but location is more than just a view. give me a view of the bay but put it in the hood, and i don’t care how nice it is, i won’t be paying a premium. and that’s the thing with nearly all of these buildings. they’re all in horrible neighborhoods. walk around marquis. it’s abysmal and will be that way for more than the next five years.
nice building. bad location. they building brand new building in the front and so much traffic coming from downtown and across that bridge.
this is truth. bad location
hmmm..
for a building within walking distance of grocery stores, office buildings, restaurants and with views of the river and bay, I find it very “interesting” that joe would think this building is in such a “bad” location…
Sounds like someone’s got a bone to pick…perhaps Joe can’t close and is going to lose his deposit….
Liz,
You are either a RCRS shill or a wannabe condo-liver who could not afford a deposit.
Your: “with views of the river and bay” may have been true of the literature, however, Related charged some of us app. $50,000 for “those views” and then announced that ICON across the street.
So, unless you have a “skin in the game’, PUT A CORK IN IT!
AJ makes some good points so let’s not beat him too badly. If you presume that we’re in the last throes of the low inflation age then he actually makes some great points. I take his point to be the following: Real estate has historically acted as a net real return performer and thus a hedge against inflation. As all the various construction inputs costs for building new condos go up, the cost of an existing condo should go up as well. So buy your inflation hedge now, but do it in the right location and for the right price.
AJ makes some valid points. I’ve been a huge housing bear but I think the national housing market has bottomed. California
sales increased 25% month over month. National housing inventory has appeared to have bottomed. I think Inventory will get burned off very fast as prices drop even here in south florida.
Having said that, as an asset class, miami condos are generally a bad investment. Carrying costs are just too high in most cases and overbuilding is driving down rents.
Liz
what grocery store are you referring to that’s in walking distance? are you talking about the CVS?
I think you guys are missing the point. Of course sales will begin to increase as prices decrease. But you have analyze quality vs. quantity. Most of these sales are ‘FORECLOSURES.” On paper, transactions are up, but the prices are DOWN. Foreclosures are bringing down prices b/c all comps are affected.
There are still many risks to this market:
With oil making a new high at 132.08 today…we appear to be entering a higher inflation. Inflation will lead to HIGHER INTEREST RATES…and make it harder to buy a home. Bankers Assoc reported that mortgage applications were down -7.8%.
In regards to the stock market: Just because the SP500 has rebounded off the lows doesn’t mean everything is fine. If you dig deeper…you will see that Financials are trading back near their lows and Energy/Materials are exploding to new highs (almost in a nasdaq/condo type bubble). Energy makes up 14.30 % of the SP500 and Materials make up 3.72%. This market is being held up by sectors that HURT THE ECONOMY.
The bottom of the mkt will take years to form…think of it as a big saucer bowl. The price of a condo will continue to adjust until the purchase price can produce POSITIVE CASH FLOW. It just can’t be any more simple! Prices will stabilize at this point…transactions will continue to increase…and you will then have your bottom.
bubbleRefuge – The large majority of people buy real estate by taking out a mortgage. Banks are not very willing to lend in the Florida market and we are seeing the effects of that now and will continue to do so as prices continue to slide substantially through this year and most of next year. I figured I am saving$30K-$40K by renting, not including the price declines. Might be a good time later this year to buy a nice new luxury car…
I know every bear argument ad infinitem. I don’t think prices have bottomed. They will continue to drop. However, inventory is starting to tighten and it will tighten much faster than it grew.
As far as the economy, it also has appeared to have bottomed in Q1. Exports are exploding and keeping the economy afloat. Inflation is ripping. Although its tough to predict, if wages rise, as they should in an inflationary environment, then everything has to go up with it. Rents and yes real estate prices.
Having said that, prices will continue to drop for condos in miami for a while. Personally, I’ve been on the sidelines since 04. I’m looking to get into a SFH probably an REO as a place to live.
bubblerefuge
what’s the basis for your statement that inventory will tighten much faster than it grew? i don’t see it happening. especially if we’re entering an inflationary time. the fact is people can’t afford today’s real estate prices let alone an increase in prices (which btw, i don’t agree with your statement that RE prices in this current market will rise if we enter an inflationary period).
.
How on earth is inventory going to tighten in the forseeable future? How many moving ans do you see pulling up to these new buildings. There was incredily low real demand (end users) in the first place and now that element will be sitting on the sidelines a very long time. True inflation (how it effects you and I) is going through the roof and is historically combatted one way – raising interest rates. Everyone has been looking at the last few years of near historically low mortgage rates. When rates rise as they are bound to, the unaffordable small little condominiums will be dramatically more unaffordable. The large segment of the population that relies on raises in salary or pay may get a jump because of inflation but absolutely nothing compared to the jump in the cost of owning one of these newly minted gems because of the higher interest rates.
Miami has traditionally been out of balance in the affordability area for home ownership due to its generaly low wages. But it is nothing compared to where it is now. Nothing but a dramatic additional drop in prices is going to make a real difference and that probably initially will be investors and speculators who will likely end up regretting their decision.
What ever happened to those bulk buyers I’ve been hearing about for a couple of years. They were suppose to come in, buy in bulk, and drastically reduce our inventory levels.
Could anyone identify any building were this has happened?
Hi Perez,
The bulk buyers are still waiting and may keep waiting. Jack McCabe started a vulture fund in 2004 and yet has to make a substantial purchase, unless he already did but cannot disclose due to confidentiality agreements between the developers and the Vulture funds.
What surprises me the most is that, all that apocalytic scenarios predicted have not materialized. take recession for example. i am still waiting for it. Population explosion is so rapid that traditional recession cycles are either not occcuring or very truncated.
In Miami, there is no panic selling fire sales of condos are going on. Stupid people who took out home equity loans to put down deposits on preconstruction condos are losing out. But their numbers are limited. Mostly the well to do people have invested in Miami condos and they are holding on.
If this recession thing blows away, they will be even more harder in their resolve to carry it for the next 3-5 years until things get better.
You are all forgetting something very important. someone from chicago or Toronto who invested 700,000 in some stocks, bonds etc and put some 400,000 on a condo and doing OK will hold his condo. The positive cash flow argument does not hold water. Yes there are some investors who put in money in Miami condos, sight unseen. But a majority investors actually love Miami. If they cant sell for the asking price for the next 3-4 years, they will enjoy it as a second home or some such.
You can keep arguing until your face turns blue, but the fact is that many investor have resigned to the idea, if you are getting raped and there is nothing you can do about it, might as well lay back and enjoy it! Or if life gives you lemons, make a lemonade out of it (if you prefer that analogy better).
That is the reason why, even though it is universal knowledge that 70% of units in new buildings are investor owned, only 30% are on the market.
The rest seem to have the wherewithal to weather the downturn.
Just to illustrate, I have extensively researched the water view units in 1800 club. Only 4 (yes, a measly 4 units) are quoting for below preconstruction prices. Two of those are under contract or already closed. Rest all are asking for at or well above preconstruction prices. There have been no discounts and the owners are getting almost 66% of carrying costs through rents in those units (anything over 50% is a good deal I think in the present circumstances.) If the owner is going to be the end user of this unit for eg. for his own retirement, or his vacation home, You can convince him all you want but paying 33% of carrying costs for your dream future home does not seem to be a deterrent.
So stop comparing miami real estate investments to commodity exchanges and stocks. You cant fall in love with your proctor and gamble stock but you can fall in love with your view or the weather or the park or the beach.
So if Ace and Mo think that the majority of these investors are going to hand over their prized pocessions for $125/sf to them, keep on dreaming.
AJ said;
“In Miami, there is no panic selling fire sales of condos are going on. ”
Give it another year when a chunk of the looming inventory actually comes online. Related having problems with their closings could be a nice trigger for panic.
Ummm, the banks and mortgage holders are panicking…and are overwhelmed with bad loan issues. There is a very serious problem with what people and banks thought the mortgage notes were worth and their actual worth. The full ramifications have not been felt yet. Many many many people seem to have invested in non-primary residence real estate property who are “at the margin” and are holding on as best they can. But the simple and undeniable fact is Florida residential real estate is in a historic decline in values from the bubble peak. Money magazine recently came out with a prediction of a 24.9% further price decline over the next 12 months for the Miami area. Other economists believe that nationally an average of 25% decline from peak pricing is probable. This is the worst housing crisis since the great depression. To brush it aside and say that people are willing to hold onto a declining asset is naive at best…the fact is most can’t sell since there is no buyer, nor lender to finance such possible buyer. The home owner is stuck with their purchase decision (many can’t stomach walking away from deposits and are in denial) and there is no way out for most. Buyers aren’t there, banks aren’t there, and financial ruin is the only other alternative other then to stick it out and keep throwing your money away. Most are not “in love” with their vacation home…especially when the cost is sickeningly high and every time they come to use their declining value property they are reminded of the mistake they made. I don’t know of anyone who would have bought a $1M property and be happy as the price goes to $900K, $800K, … possibly $500K. Unlike stocks were you take the hit over a short period, this pain will last years and years and years…so for many people the resentment and financial pain is just starting as the band-aid is tortuously pealed away over 7 years. Ouch.
gas prices and airline prices are and will continue to affect the 2nd home market. Every trip down costs that much more, people are more likely to stay home or near home, besides they have that much less disposable income.
Miami will continue to be a desirable destination, I just think people will cut back and come a lot less, to the point it doesn’t make sense to buy, just rent a vacation home or stay at a hotel instead.
As for 500 BRICKELL? An update which portends some unpleasantness!
Having been assigned early June closing dates, I asked for an early “walk-through” and my requested was rejected out-of-hand!
Then, I requested a five-minute “walk-through of the corresponding “demonstrator” units the brokers saw. They plicks never even gave me the courtesy of a return phone call!
I guess spending $750,000 with these “nice people” doesn’t get you to first base.
Hi JL and Tom, What I am trying to say is that we have to look at Miami market with in a different perspective. 20,000 units coming on line seem daunting but it is only one part of the story. Firstly any idiot who borowed money to put down payment on precon deserves what he/she got. They have no business to invest here in the first place. In fact it is not called investing it is called gambling. Investing is something you do with your spare cash or savings. Not by borrowing and speculating with it.
As I said before there are 70% of precon by investors. No one is quite sure how much percentage of those investors are well to do and have the capacity to carry these units for the next few years and meanwhile either rent or enjoy them. I am only guessing that 20-30% of these investors have absolutely no way or means to close and carry them and either they will walk away/ get foreclosed / or do some fire sales. That is where you can get some great deals right now or in the next couple of years.
The rest of the investors, who are cash rich and have the capacity to carry the unit decide to do so because they do not consider the carrying costs as a burden but something justified, to enjoy the unit in the interim, that will take a lot of inventory off the market in the near future. Yes they are aware of holding on to a declining asset. But the decline is not forever.
to reiterate what I said before, Eventually the end users will pick up all the units for what ever price. The economy will turn around eventually. The population pressures will be there as long as human race exists. In 5 years the question will be should we build more buildings at double the construction cost of 03-04 or let people live 7 to a room?
Before it was just the allure of SOBE which was a driving factor in Miami’s popularity. But since the past 4 years, this little hicktown has become an international class city and more yet to come. I predict that the time has come for financial, IT and service sector industry to take a hard second look at Miami and move here from around the world, what with the availability of plenty of cheap office space and accomodation for the employees in a city with world class amenities.
And finally, show me one damn building in Manhattan that even comes close to the amenities provided even in the low end new buildings that came up in Miami like Loft 2, Vue etc ( I am not even comparing with Q or 18 or 900). There are none to be found. And if they do, one BR starts at 900,000 and 2 BR start at 1.5 Mil and they dont even have parking for god sake! Go figure.
Just to make myself clear so that people do not misunderstand me, I am not advocating everyone to close and carry regardless. Only under following circumstance. If all of below are satisfied;
1. You invested in a great building with excellent amenities.
2. Building located in a good location
3. Your unit has a water view.
4. You have the means to carry the unit for the next 4-5 years with out resorting to borrowing or struggling.
5. If you can rent the unit to cover 50-60% of the carrying costs, it is great. Even if you cannot rent, are you prepared to enjoy it as a second or vacation home for a few years?
If the answer is yes to all of the above, you should hold the unit and not dump it even it is temporarily declining. If the unit meets all the above criteria, it will be a very pricey unit in a few short years from now.
Lucas, Thanks for the picture update of 500 Brickell! I wish I could have made it to see for myself.
AJ,
How can you advocate entering an investment that only cover’s “50-60% of the carrying costs?” Are you trying to argue it’s a prudent investment strategy to purchase assets that have Negative Cash Flow.
Definition of INVESTMENT: the act of investing; laying out money or capital in an enterprise with the expectation of profit.
Why would I invest now if I can only cover 60% of my carrying cost? Who would buy a stock, or bond, or any other investment for that matter, if I told you were Guaranteed to lose money on this for the next 3-5 years; with the hope that maybe when things get better you will finally see some return?
Why not rent in 1800 and enjoy the amenities and view for less money? And in 3 years, when (and if) things get better, you can purchase a unit? When you adjust for inflation, it will take a large price appreciation in the condo to breakeven the loss from carrying. You can also take the 40 percent a year you are saving (by renting) and put it in a CD. I don’t see condo prices increasing more than the return on a CD. (4% return/yr)
AJ – sorry, your argument doesn’t stack up. Infact it’s nuts.
I would fit all your criteria and wouldn’t close unless you mugged me at gunpoint and drove me to the Title company.
“But the decline is not forever.” *** The continued decline is not forever, but the majority of the price decline will in fact be forever in real dollar terms.
“I predict that the time has come for financial, IT and service sector industry to take a hard second look at Miami and move here from around the world.” *** Hurricane disruption is a big negative and land is cheap in the midwest without the disruption. There are so many alternatives that are more attractive for businesses to locate.
If you’re looking for a place to eventually retire, you’ll retire much better off financially by selling now and buying 1-3 years before retiring if you’re not retiring in the next 7 years. Prices may decline more than 25% from current pricing. Ouch.
AJ – Your arguments are the same people used to justify the bubble prices as prices were going up, these arguments are even less persuasive as prices are declining… Don’t mean to beat up on your post, but I do want to challenge it a bit.
Another comment is, the long long term pricing on residential real estate has basically kept up with inflation with +/- 10% boom bust cycles. If the Miami area had a boom of over 100% it is doubtful in the future there will ever be a boom that large again after the pain of this bust, which has yet to fully unwind and be realized.
I read on another site that almost all the units at Marina Blue have closed and that the building is all lit up with residents??? can anyone verify this? Seems far fetched…
Some of the lights you see in these buildings are from the hallway lights. Developers have resorted to leaving the entrance doors open to achieve the lived in look.
A fire inspection would require them close the doors, but nobody lives in these buildings so nobody is in danger yet.
To add to Wild Bill’s hypothesis,
many of the lights are on from installers of window treatments and floor guys (moonlighting to make ends meet). I’ve found alot of these guys in a building I was renting out and they mentioned that they were installing for new owners (mostly in the Biscayne corridor, but some Brickell) to owners who were trying to flip but are now trying to rent. Only anectdotal, but still…
AJ
with all due respect, “to enjoy the unit in the interim”? WTF does that mean? even if you’re cash rich, how can you enjoy a place that won’t breakeven for you for another 5 years (hopefully)? you won’t be cash rich for long if this is your approach to investing. heck, far from enjoyment, i’d be sick to my stomach before even turning the key to the door into my “wonderful” second home.
I guess I have to add “those investors who eventually want to make their Miami condo a retirement abode” . That might take the heat off a bit!
In any case guys, Oil was $70 in 03 and is now almost double ($135 today). people are still driving! My argument is that in 2012-13 when construction costs hit $600-$700, they will still build and people will still buy. The alternative to not building would be for us to live a dozen to a room like the illegal aliens in New York city. So when all this excess inventory dries up sooner or later, you would wish you had bought a place back in 08 or at least not dumped the one you had. Most People are not independent thinkers. They are lemmings and follow others. When the whole world was buying I watched from the sidelines, now when the whole world is applying brakes, i am going full speed ahead. i am proud that I am a leader and not a follower. I have always been successful in my strategy. Time only will tell. so let us see in a year or two who has the last laugh.
MARINA BLUE STRATEGY:
I meant to write about this but never got to. I saw 50% of the units with lights last Saturday. Kudos to the developers strategy. It is not 1. A Reflection 2. It is not moonlighting contractors 3. it is not hallway lights from the open doorway. 4. It is not people closing and living there. All this is pure gossip.
It is actually the lights turned on by the developer strategically in alternate floors or lines to create a lively effect in the building. it gives an illusion that it is occupied and alive. Judging by the responses here, the developer achieved his objective to create a buzz and a mirage.
aj
how exactly do you know this.. i mean all possible stories stated above all seem very possible. what would make yours to be the “truth?”
anyways it did look nice and very different since we are all used to the dark gloomy look of all these newly constructed condo
some of the talk about the correct price of these new condos and relate it to carrying costs and investment ideas are off just a little bit. it is not quite natural to expect the price of a condo today to drop to a point where cash flow is equal to the carrying cost-ie you own the condo without risk of losing cash from day one. this thinking is what put us in the mess to begin with. if real estate were priced so that rents always covered carrying cost, everybody would own the property instead of renting.
as with any long term investment, you cannot expect to make money from day one. over time, with price appreciation, you will make a profit. but the first few YEARS should be expected at a loss or best case break even. we have lost our understanding of what investment and risk really are in todays financial world-and how quickly you should see a profit.
As of yesterday you could see the doors were open. It’s not a theory. It’s very obvious. It’s also defeats the purpose of having fire rated entrance doors. Most likely will be warned in the next week by the fire department.
whatever u wanna say 500 brickell will have the blocked views from the building that is getting built in the front and other buildings direct on the waterfront.
plus it is a huge traffic on that street and you will never have a rest.
same is with biscayne bay condos like marina blue just go saturday nite and you will see bumper to bumber traffic and the noise is too huge.
brickell is still the best value in terms of location and it is peacefull at nite.
im just bringing facts cause i live right in the briekll waterfront building so i know what i am talking
JR,
Thank you for the link regarding Met1.
From what I have heard, (which seems to be from a reliable source who has closed, the units delivered and the amenaties are a huge let down.
Apparently the pool is not open until a pool attenddant has been hired. I have yet to see many condos with pool attendants. Anyone else have a pool attendant? The pool is only 5ft 1in inches deep. Is not as if anyone is going to sink.
The gym facility is weak. The locker room has one stall, one shower and one urinal for 445 units. The sauna has room for one person since it was built to small and one seat is all code will allow.
The roof top patio that was advertised as an amenity for the building is really a limited common element that can only be used by owners on the 38th floor. I have yet to find out where the “relaxation garden” is.
The unit interiors for a building with such hipe and promise were nickel and dimed. Beautiful view it seems from the curve but as usual the promise of quality and the delivery if crap.
For the first condo property of MDM they certainly have not lived up to their reputation. Maybe they are just better suited for hotel construction.
I would really be interested to hear what others have to say if they have been in the building as an owner or taken the tour..
This was recommend to me as a great place with Met 2, Met3 and Met Square but now I am hesitant. I have been blown away by the quality and detail that has gone into 50 Biscayne.
Thanks
Ps. Has anyone heard that Tibor Hollo sold 300 units at the Opera Tower to a small hotel chain? Out of 635 units apparantly only about 114 have closed and half are currently living in the building
Hi Linda, Where did you hear that news? It would be a great addition to the Omni if Opera becomes a hotel complex. Already we have the Double tree, Mariott and Hilton there. Another hotel will be good for the area. At least Opera will not be a ghost tower anymore. Is it true? Very interested to know.
Hi JR 56, I actually stopped for a while on Biscayne Blvd and observed the lit units for a while in MB to come to this conclusion.
What has surprised me is what people are willing to do to get some income off of their condo flops. People will lease for the week, week, or whatever. I think it would absolutely suck as an owner to have to play hotel manager for a condo that is losing money each month…getting renters, cleaning, the hassle. If you wanted a hotel investment better to invest in hotel stocks instead of being burdened with renting and having to sneak renters in as “guests” to get around the condo association, etc. These types of owners hurts property values and would cause me to seriously pause before buying in such a building. This is happening in the building I am renting and other high end new condo buildings…. there things are part hotel now with ZERO neighbors to get to know, etc.
AJ said: “When the whole world was buying I watched from the sidelines, now when the whole world is applying brakes, i am going full speed ahead. i am proud that I am a leader and not a follower. I have always been successful in my strategy. Time only will tell. so let us see in a year or two who has the last laugh.”
I’m going to save that quote.
Regarding your oil/condos analogy — people are still driving because, for the most part, they have to. They need to get to work, to the store, to get around town, etc.
They’re cutting back on other discretionary purchases in order to keep fuel in their car. Gasoline is fairly price inelastic – at least over the short term.
Nobody NEEDS to buy a condo. The comparison is ridiculous.
Contrarian investing only works at the bookends of cycles. The mistake you’re making is thinking that buying a condo right now just because the market is bad is the “contrarian play”. It isn’t. The contrarian play was selling a condo in 2005 when the market was at its hottest and prices were skyrocketing. A contrarian, therefore, would buy a condo when the market was at its worst.
We’re only halfway through this downturn right now. Buying a condo right now would be the equivalent of buying Yahoo stock when it was “down” to $75/share because “nobody likes it”, only to see it bottom at $8/share shortly after that.
Don’t take my word for it – look at past real estate bubbles closely. None of them were anywhere near as big as the one we just had, and none of them bottomed out quickly. Even the late 80’s bubble took almost a decade to work itself out. And if you want a worst-case scenario example, look at 90’s Japan. Housing prices went down for 14 years.
It’s absurd to suggest we’re anywhere near the bottom here. Buying a condo now is certainly unpopular, but it’s not the type of situation where a successful contrarian investor would enter. Things have to get much worse before that happens – and they definitely will.
AJ & Gables.. I have to agree with one of your points… NO RISK no RETURN…
it is just impossible to make a decent amount of money without risking a penny…. hence… people continue to be employed in south Florida for mere 30 to 40k a year…
Here’s the point.. some of these people saw the opportunity to get some dough fast! easy.. plus.. with help of some real estate salespeople (im not calling them professionals… most are not).. got into INVESTMENTS that they CANNOT afford…
For stocks they call it Qualified Investors.. you have to have some money to get to that point…
SO.. you made a bad decision.. you PAY for it… there’s no free lunch.. take the hit and loose your deposit…
Why im saying this? well.. I got into some RCRS preconstruction building.. gave 5% deposit.. for a 2/2 unit.. last november was the time when i was supposed to make a second payment… guess what? They can sit on their b..s.. …. and keep waiting…. even better.. they should send me the default letter so that i can take a capital loss against my other profits…
It does not make any sense to buy that condo today… in this market is worth at least 120K less than what i signed the contract for.. so… i take a hit and move on…
(this to say that not only people whom cannot afford to close or to carry are DUMPING bad investments….) Real Investors know when to take a loss and wait for a better price…
Still waiting sitting on my CASH to get some good deal….
Time will tell… but those units I bought in 2001 are holding very well…..
Keep posting… I love all of your opinions and information even when i dont agree with them!!
“The inventory of unsold homes and condos jumped 10.5% to 4.55 million, an “uncomfortably high” level, said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the real estate trade group.”
– Ummm the bottom is nowhere in sight now. Inventories have to come down substantially before there is even talk of seeing the bottom. In the meantime, prices will drop, drop, drop… Let’s see how this thing plays itself out this year.
“For single-family homes alone, the inventory rose to 10.7 months’ supply, the highest since 1985. For condos, the inventory of 14.2 months is the highest ever.”
Renter Tom,
Yous said: “This is happening in the building I am renting and other high end new condo buildings…. there things are part hotel now with ZERO neighbors to get to know, etc.”
Please direct me tothe right buildings (preferably on the beach) where I can get a 3-monthh rental.
My current “investor – landlord” just lost this place to the lender. I’m serious! Thanks!
Ok, I am not talking about the entire Miami Market in General. Sure enough, some Miami river condos with shitty views to the west may infact sell for $125/sf as Ace and Mo wish. But how loud should I scream out that I am not talking about low end, lower middle class targeted condos?
Consider this:
1. Peak was in Summer 2006
2. We are now 2 years in to the downturn.
3. In 1800 club, the best 2 BR lines are 5 and 7 with unobstructed bay/ocean and water views.
4. Total units in line 5 and line 7 = 80
5. Building is almost completely closed
6. No of listings in MLS for line 5 and line 7 = 2
7. Price asking per SF $450 (most likely $50 -$100/sf higher than precon)
My Question:
1.Where the %^$& are the deals?
2. Why is that only 2 owners listed the choicest units?
3. Why are they asking for so much?
4. What is happening with the remaining 78 owners holding lines 5 and 7?
So all this bull about a bloodbath may be true for the crap that is coming up in Brickell, Miami River, Midtown etc.
But if you have a five star building in a superb location with killer views, forget about it. The owners may want to keep it for themselves rather than give it away.
All those who are vigorously challenging my theory, show me just 10 listings in lines 5 and 7 in 1800 club or line 01 in Quantum at $350/SF (nearly the precon prices) in the next one to two years and I will eat my hat and my shoe too!
Unrelated, pls email me at [email protected] I might have a place for you
AJ,
In 1800, I would argue that the 09 line is slightly better than 05 or 07, and the 03 is equivalent while the 01 is obviously the best. Combine those lines and redo the analysis. It also doesn’t make sense to make an argument from 1 recent building. Too many things might be going on behind the scenes.
Do you know for certain that 80 individual contract holders closed on 80 05 and 07 units? If you don’t, you shouldn’t assume anything right now.
The easiest way to gauge the high end is focus on high end buildings such as Murano Grande and Icon in SoBe.
If you have followed the listings starting from 2 years ago, you would have noticed a dramatic slope. If that slope continues for another 3 years -5 years total of downward price action would be a middle of the road reasonable assumption- , Mo just might get his wish.
The last part reads better like this:
If you have followed the listings starting from 2 years ago, you would have noticed a dramatic slope. If that slope continues for another 3 years (5 years total of downward price action would be a middle of the road reasonable assumption), Mo just might get his wish.
Hi JL, I have done a thesis on 1800 bay view units. Lines 03 and 09 are 70 sf smaller than lines 05,07 and feel a bit cramped. Initially I thought (just like you) that line 09 is better it is a corner. But all you can look from that corner is the units of Quantum! )3 is not equal as the BR’s do not even have a balcony like 05/07.
I have been to line 01. The floor plan is ok with humongous sized 3 BR apt. But the views are actually better from 05/07! You get to see a lot of Bay Parc Plaza and double tree grand from line 01 which I dont like.
Finally, I DONT want to live in Icon or Murano Grande. I want to live on the edge of Margaret Pace park. I would anyday prefer to live in 05/07 of 1800 and 01 of Quantum than Icon, Murano Grande, portofino and continuum I . The only exception I make in SOBE is the continuum II. But even if I can afford to buy in Cont. II, I will never be able to afford the ridiculous carrying costs there. So again, I do not want to average out all the units in 18 or Q. Obviously the owners of 05/07 in 18 and 01 of Q know that they have a winner. That is why you are not seeing deals on them. So only talk about the best units and show me deals there. I will hold my peace for ever.
The building looks great. Honestly a lot better than I initially expected. My only concern is the day time sunlight in the pool area. It seems like most of the sunlight is going to be obstructed by either one of the two towers, or by the office building being built next door. This would really affect it, considering most people who live and travel to Miami are highly dependent on their pool, beaches, and sun, and in this scenario I think its going to be difficult for them to catch some sun.
Please let me know if I am wrong.
AJ,
What drugs are you on? It doesn’t matter how nice the building and amenities are. It’s price and demand – or lack thereof. Who in his right mind would buy even if he could hold it for 3-5 years? Why would you want to lose money for 3 to 5 years? Why don’t you do the math and figure what that loss is for 3-5 years? But make sure to add in the increasing condo dues.
There are 3 categories: 1. Those that walk now and limit their loss, 2. Those that close for fear of losing their deposit – only to walk later when they see the deteriorating prices and other foreclosures going on – and wind up beating themselves up for not walking now, and 3. Those that keep holding for years and years and just absorb it (because they can afford to) only to look back later and see how much they lost. This group ultimately loses the most. They would be better off if they couldn’t afford it and had to walk!
AJ, Zilbert’s showing 4 units in the 05/07 line at 1800 with Unit#2107 asking $415K = $340/sq ft.
AJ said: “So only talk about the best units and show me deals there. I will hold my peace for ever.”
AJ, will you hold your peace forever if an 05/07 above the 15th floor lists or sells for under $310 sq/ft within 6 months?
PS. People are still going to pay more per sq ft. for the corner units.
Hi JL, I am aware of the 2107. I looked at it. One swallow doesnt make a summer. You will always get a deal here or there because someone just has to let go. It does not portend a trend. Of course you might find a rare deal even in line 8 in Marina Blue. It does not mean anything unless a few more follow that lead.
Yes if the next 6 months, if you can show 5 units relatively high floor in line 5/7 in 18 and line 1 in Q for $350 or less, I will hold my peace forever. You win.
Hilton,
Please follow all my previous posts. looks like either you did not read them or skimmed through them quickly without giving a thought.
AJ,
Unless #2107 is a shortsale… Your “thesis” is completely off. The fact that the unit has been on the market for 6 weeks with no takers shows nobody is in a hurry to pay less than preconstruction costs to get a high floor in what you call the best line.
You should understand the reality of this. Now, the ceiling has been set for that line at $340 sq. ft. Those current sellers and any seller in the near future with the same line will have to go below that figure.
It’s called a free market.
Amen. More power to the buyer. I have no problem with that!
Lucas,
Is there a website that lists the percentage of walkaways, defaults and/or short sales for each project?
I heard there is a project that is giving away a SMART car if each buyer closes, do you have the name of the project?
thanks,
common sense
What they should do in this area is have those car share things at some of these large condo buildings. They have them in Chicago and they are pretty neat and worth every penny. I think one is called GoCar, there are others.
Funny you bring that up. I think that would be an excellent idea when all these condos fill up with people. Philly carshare I think is the best known. You also have Austin carshare etc.
I’ve always been a sports car + SUV guy… but I can see giving up the SUV if there were a carshare thing around.
To: 500 Brickell Investors
Has anyone “missed” their closing, making the decision to “walk”?
If so, did you “get THE call? How did you react?
Anyone going to the big “owners’ party”?
just got my unit appraised today at 500 Brickell, and it came in 10K above what I paid pre-construction…..
Concrete example appraisals are like opinions; everyone has one…
Better get an honest appraisal from an appraiser you choose; not one “recommended” by your Realtor or Broker.
Welcome aboard Jorge (concrete bs)!
I would bet a large amount of $$$ that mine would come in $100K LESS than paid if appraised by an INDEPENDENT MAI guy from out of state.
Related’s ARTIFICIAL VALUATIONS (based on 2005 prices) are exculsively used by their “Related Finance” and flow-thru to to “Related Leasing” (RCRS) to present illusionary “presumed rents” for those who close.
This BS started with “Related Re-sales” (RCRS) whent they would not let you list a unit in 2006 or 2007 at one-cent less than cost plus 7.75%.
The “Related Finance” guy COULD NOT ANSWER” this question: “With these artificial valuations being used as the basis for a mortgage, what happens to everybody else when somebody closes and then has to unload a unit at a 40% loss?”
concrete, everyone hates to lose money but get real….you lost money when you bought the damn thing!
I know that if you do not close you loose your deposit, but besides that can the developer ask for more money for “penalties” or an other concept like that??….
worry about it,
You are incorrect. The contract states that if “you” are in default and do not close, “you” are entitled to the return of 25% of you original deposit back.
However, since Related has a track record of stiffing people, making them litigate, even though the contract is crystal cler, I would suggest anyone going into default WRITE THE ESCROW COMPANY AND PUT A HOLD ON YOUR ACCOUNT. That way, the longer Related holds out, the longer the escrow is holding both “your” 25% AND Related’s equal share.
Since possession is “everything”, you create a stalemate and if they want their half, they have to honor the contract.
Anybody checked in with Robert Cooper or Michael Schlesinger yet on this pig?
Un-Related,
Thanks for your comments, I was checking my contract but I can’t find the escrow account information. Do you happen to have it?, do you have any idea of where I can find the information?
By the way, are you still closing your unit?
worry,
Post an e-mail and “magic” will happen!
Make it as private as possible because Gourge has spies everywhere! LOL
worry,
WHERE ARE YOU? E-mail please?
Unrelated,
I am also an investor in 500 Brickell and have a closing date in July. Can we speak about the options as I live outside the US and am pretty clueless. The blogs are very interesting but I now need to share the pain with a fellow 500er. You can e-mail me at [email protected].
Thanks,
Sam,
Watch for an e-mail on Sunday.
Is there any person who wants to get out of the contract in Brickell Area? please let me know
[email protected]