New Miami Condos – Closing Rates for April 2008
April 4, 2008 by Lucas Lechuga
Below you will find the date that each condo development began closings:
- Ten Museum Park - June 14, 2007
- Star Lofts on the Bay - June 20, 2007
- Latitude on the River - July 27, 2007
- Onyx on the Bay - July 31, 2007
- Loft Downtown 2 - September 26, 2007
- 50 Biscayne - October 1, 2007
I'm quite impressed with the closing rate of Loft 2. Their closing rate has improved roughly 13.5 percentage points since the last update and is within 6 percentage points of reaching the 100 percent mark. Great job!
The rest of the condo developments in this group have not changed much since the February update. The closing rate of 50 Biscayne has improved about 6 percent while the closing rate of Onyx on the Bay has improved a little more than 4 percent. The rest of the condo developments have improved 1.5 percent or less. You may notice that the closing rate of Star Lofts on the Bay has actually gone down since the February update. Well, obviously, two closings weren't rescinded. I discovered two deeds that were re-recorded. I hadn't caught these in the February post. No additional units have closed at Star Lofts on the Bay since November 8, 2007.
The following graph shows the closing rate of various condo developments in Miami that began closings after November 1, 2007.
Below you will find the date that each condo development began closings:
- 1800 Club - November 27, 2007
- Brickell on the River South - December 17, 2007
- Opera Tower - December 28, 2007
- Quantum on the Bay - January 3, 2008
- Plaza on Brickell - January 7, 2008
- Apogee South Beach - January 16, 2008
- 1060 Brickell - January 23, 2008
For the most part, a lot has changed with this group since the February closing rate update. Of this group of condo developments, I must say that Apogee South Beach has done a remarkable job! Apogee was the second to last condo development in this group to begin closings, yet it has far surpassed the success of the others. The high closing rate of condos at Apogee proves once again that the ultra-luxury condo market in Miami Beach is still doing quite well.
The 1800 Club has pushed well through the 50 percent mark and has improved roughly 16 points. Quantum on the Bay is hovering right at 50 percent which is good considering that they received the TCO on the second tower around the beginning of March. I can definitely see it hitting the 75 percent mark within the next two months. I also want to note that Plaza on Brickell and 1060 Brickell are both comprised of two towers. I've heard that closings for condos in the 851 tower of Plaza on Brickell recently began. The condo units in the 851 tower represent 60 percent of the overall development. I also know a few people who have contracts on condos in the 901 tower who are still waiting to receive a closing date. I'm not sure if only one or both of the towers at 1060 Brickell have begun closings yet.
Next month, I plan to include Marina Blue, Wind and Midtown 4, which each began closings recently.
Disclaimer: The above closing rate information was derived from public County records. There can be a 2-3 week delay from the time that a closing occurs and the time that the closing is recorded.
the 2 towers that have done the best are Apogee and Loft II, both the related group….The developer I like the best out of the crowd, and I know that you, Lucas agree. Charts look right on the ball to me.
Both of the Loft buildings have caught my attention recently. They seem to offer a good value for a Miami condo. Does anybody have any insight, good or bad, regarding these developments? Are condo fees high or low? Parking? Rental vs residential quality of life? The high closing rate reinforces my opinion that the development would be a safer purchase, even though I get the impression from others that it is not a truly “luxury” property like other buildings are describes. From the outside i do like Plaza and Avenue, but those closing numbers are low. Any guesstimate on how… Read more »
If you are seriously considering investment in any realestate anyone should take a look at the DUBAI market. I have a 1/1 960sft apt i bought 3years ago for $240,000 a conservative estimate for the value now is $650,000 i have rented it at $5,000 /month !! there is NO PROPERTY TAX there is NO CAPITAL GAINS !! there is NO INCOME TAX on rent !! amazingly there is still an upside as a lot of liquidity is chasing a comparitively small market! i love miami !! i love to have vacations there but as an investment i would put… Read more »
Lucas- what’s the scoop on loft 3 do you really think they are going ahead with it despite current market conditions? I know loft 4 was canceled and loft 3 is running behind schedule wondering if it will be canceled also.
I know Dubai has sky rocketed in prices over the last few years just like Miami did and more, makes you wonder if that bubble bust is around the corner? Anyone have an accurate number of the number units that has recently or will soon come to market, I know it’ in the 10’s of thousands.
If not for all the negative publicity on this site, Opera Tower might have attained a more respectable rate…like maybe a whopping 16%.
But I think Star Lofts gets the award for the poorest performance: taking over 9 months to close about 24 units. Plus, quite possibly the crappiest website I’ve seen for $500k condos.
gables, The loft buildings are nice for an inexpensive (relatively speaking) young person to live in. the units themselves are pretty open with not many walls separating anything, parking is across the street (which sux) especially if you have friends coming over, they would need to fend for themselves as far as parking goes. The balconies are useless because they are wide enough for only a human body, not even a chair fits in them, unless you get one of the few units with an extended balcony. The pool at loft 1 sux but loft 2 has a nice pool… Read more »
People have been talking about the dubai bubble for a long time, but the reality is that it is the only such (modern) city all the way from west africa to indonesea! it is so far ahead in its lifestyle from any other city in its vicinity! its like having a USA with just one major city!! Not every condo is a great investment and LOCATION is very important! but with interest rates falling and high rents for well located condos makes even a $650,000 investment great if youre getting $60,000 rent per annum! Specially with no taxes. It is… Read more »
sorry (for above) i know this blog is about miami but my point is there are better investments elswhere but for the miami lovers rent there for now!
umer ahmad,
as far as taxes, if you’re a US citizen, you pay taxes here…regardless of where you get income. and i’m not sure why anyone would pay $5k for a $600k apartment at 900 sq ft? proof morons are everywhere!
Well you look at 10 museum only 74% closed but yet you have 50 or so units for sale listed in mls. Hard to judge when there’s only 200 units in the bldg. You decide.
I think it would be useful to post the raw number of closed units with the percentages. The reason I say this is that it is a LOT easier to attain a 73% closing rate (like the Apogee) when you only have 67 units to sell. If Apogee had 600 units to sell (the average number of units in the other buildings in that second group), it would only have an 8% closing rate. Not really a fair comparison, and certainly not any “proof” that the high end of the market is doing well. Here are the raw numbers of… Read more »
Raffi, Thanks for the input. That parking situation is a significant detriment to me-dont want to park across the street everytime i come home. I’ve noticed the prices have dropped to what appears to be more reasonable numbers. these are numbers which are attracting my attention. starts to give you a floor to where the market needs to reach before generating a great amount of interest. as other buildings drop into a similar neighborhood, we will see the market pick up-not until then. the Loft buildings seem to be developing into a leading indicator of price and demand from my… Read more »
You can’t compare lofts 1 and.2 to most other buildings. Related made them for a way lower income bracket and the ammenities are non existant.
BFG,
I don’t agree. Star Lofts on the Bay only has 48 total units. Onyx on the Bay has only 119 total units. By your standards, they sure have had no problem whatsoever to close all 100% of them. Each began closings in the Summer of 2007 and look where their closing rates are now.
A tally of lawsuits might also be interesting.
I’d guess Opera Tower defending against 21 lawsuits is leading the way. That’s got to be distracting and expensive.
Quoting Perez: “A tally of lawsuits might also be interesting. I’d guess Opera Tower defending against 21 lawsuits is leading the way. That’s got to be distracting and expensive.” You obviously aren’t “related” to GOURGE Perez. Related has hit the century-mark in lawsuits! More coming with Plaza, 500 Brickell, etc. Read the following from the Miami Business Journal: “Related Group Preps in-house Army Against Mounting Lawsuits South Florida Business Journal – by Paul Brinkmann and Julia Neyman Jorge Perez smiled brightly as he walked the red carpet for the opening of Plaza at Brickell, a 1.000-unit luxury condo development in… Read more »
Related just partnered with Condo.com to market all their unsold condos as rentals. There was a press release earlier this week.
Can anyone tell me what will be the fate of Opera towers? Who is suing the developers?Apart from the fact that they are trying to selling pigeon sized units for .5 Mil what else is wrong with that development? I thought the location is great though.
Dubai, bye bye. Umer Ahmed, I have quite a few freinds living in Dubai and they curse their luck every day. If not for the job they have there, they would run from Dubai. The complaints range from absolute boredom and monotony to Living in fear. There was a news story not long ago that the police raided a simple gay party happening between Dubai and Abu Dhabi and carted off everybody to jail and deported the foriegners. America can take a hit like Sept. 11 and still survive and flourish cause we are so big and also due to… Read more »
Gables…Recently, I spent 10 days visiting condo complexes in Miami. Before visiting, I was sure I wanted to live in one of the Loft bldgs. I fell in love with the spaces and that rooftop area in Loft 2 is beautiful. Unfortunately, that parking situation is the worse. Each unit has a space in a municipal deck across the street. That area is not a place I want to be walking around in a semi-lit parking deck. In addition, after 5 pm, they offer valet. But with so many units, how long will you have to wait for your car?… Read more »
Dubai has been described as a cross between Las Vegas and Orlando. There is a tremendous amount of wealth there and it is the most liberal of all arab countries. I get a lot of job opportunities from other divisions of my company to move there. As a US citizen working in dubai, you pay no federal tax here and dubai is tax fee. Also most companies who transfer you to dubai will pay for room and board there. So it works out well for people who are based in US (and other countries) to move there for a year… Read more »
i do have to say that slowly slowly, SOME decent deals are popping up every now and then where it makes sense to buy. not everywhere but in certain instances…
Juan, Could you explain your amenities comment more? If a building has a pool, concierge, gym and parking, what are the additional amenities which make it luxury vs standard? Other than the parking situation (which is a disaster), at Loft buildings, dont they have all the other amenities? Now I am sure the interior amenities of a unit might vary by building, but that should be showcased in the price of the unit, not a general comment on the status of the building. It seems to me, many of these buildings justify the unit price by claiming luxury amenities in… Read more »
how do you relate the note below to the notion that smart money is staying away from miami – you figure this $1B is to pay for lawsuits? btw, biscayne 50 occupancy, with 62.71% closings, seems to be healthily lit at night. Some buildings will certainly fare much better than others. Lucas- I hear that MarinaBlue has closed 160 units so far, which seems to be a good number for just 1 month. what do you think? —– Related Group gets $1B investment The Related Group said it received a $1 billion investment vehicle from Philadelphia-based real estate private equity… Read more »
Gables,
If you are looking for good price and great location go to the plaza at brickell. Even though closings are not reflecting good numbers, from what I know many buyers requested for extensions and many closings just starting happening. The building is beautiful and if you would ask me what I don’t like about the building I will say the carpet in the units and that is it. So just take the carpet out, put some nince flooring and you will have an awesone unit. You can get 2 bedroom from $320K.
why would anyone buy in Dubai unless they are a rich oil sheik??
other than opulent buildings, how can you compare it to Europe or the U.S.?
they do not afford the same liberties as other developed nations.
it certainly isn’t a place for gays, women or ethnic diversity—but it’s great if your a man with $$$$
but there’s a market for everyone in this world.
Hello, I have been reading this website for a month now and I see some interesting comments. Can somebody please tell me which building is better 1800 club, opera or Quantum. I am looking to rent a 1/1 for around 1300-1400 in that area. Everything I see listed right now for that price range is kind of small with a few good deals for around 1500. Can we offer less? 2 bedrooms are so overpriced!! Or would you recommend going to another building like plaza or 50 biscayne. Thanks a lot for your help. PS: Mr Lucas , great website… Read more »
Today in miami herald:
Brickell’s draw: A feel of city life
A showcase Miami neighborhood is humming with an infusion of urban life — a growing skyline, new places to eat and mingle, and a vibrant street scene.
The whole closing rate numbers tells you everything about the health of developers/Construction loans and nothing whatsoever about the state of supply/demand for end users. Take super-dooper Apogee. Already has 13 units on the re-sale market. That’s nearly 20%. Realtors tell us that’s bad – and since they know best, who am I to disagree. Continuum II, not so bad, yet. But early days So let’s have some analysis. Take closing rate and subtract from that units on sale on the MLS to capture a real ‘non-flipper’ or ‘non-I-might-as-well-close-because-I don’t-want-to-lose-my-depost”. The picture would be wholly different, wholly relevant, and wholly… Read more »
Lucas said: “I don’t agree…. By your standards, they sure have had no problem whatsoever to close all 100% of them” I didn’t say it is “no problem” to close all the units in a smaller building. I said it is easier (generally speaking) to close 67 units than 600-1000 units. Do you disagree with that? The fact that a couple of these smaller buildings have horrible closing rates doesn’t invalidate my point. Your graph compares the buildings by percentages equally. That is misleading, since the buildings range in size from 48 to 1000 units. A 50% closing rate in… Read more »
Hi Denise V, Don’t know if I can give you a side by side comparison of those buildings, but can help with the rental aspect. I have been following a few buildings/areas for several months now ever since I accepted a job in Miami. You can negotiate the rental amount, along with the move-in costs. Some building associations, like Quantum, require that you give them a deposit equal to one month’s rent, so that may be something to keep in mind. In addition, some bldgs require that you give them a move-in deposit in order to protect them against any… Read more »
This is a very interesting site. Does anyone know anything about Nordica?
The person calling for raw numbers to be posted is incorrect in his/her reasoning. Anyone with basic training in statistics will tell you that percentages (as Lucas uses) or ratios ARE the right way to report numbers. The percentages place the raw numers into context, as they are essentially calculated by dividing (in this case) the number of units closed by the total number of units in the building, and then multiplying by 100. This is in fact the fairest way to compare the closing rates in these buildings. On another note, I realize this site is dedicated to new… Read more »
likelybuyer said: “how do you relate the note below to the notion that smart money is staying away from miami – you figure this $1B is to pay for lawsuits?” — It’s smart money only when you make money on the investment. Long-Term Capital was the smartest money around until they became the dumbest money around. John Devaney was supposed to be S FL genius money but it turned out he was just another guy riding a bull market. Let’s face it, Perez did great as a condo developer during a condo boom. But how much experience does he have… Read more »
Denise V – I just rented after looking around for a bit. I offered 30% off the reasonably competitive listing rate. They countered at 20% off, I recountered and got for 25% off with a one year lease with tenant options going forward. Everyday the unit didn’t lease was >$100 loss for them so use the fact that this is a buyers market AND a renters market. Some of the renting deals are just silly low right now….. Good luck.
[…] 3. To condo buyers: Some of the recent callers to my office who have mentioned that they are readers of this blog have been condo buyers seeking legal advice with respect to their purchase agreements. I highly encourage those in this position to have the condo documents — and especially the contract – readily available when calling, as it facilitates the process of providing advice on potential options. Given the growing number of buyers who are calling my office after having visited this blog, I thought it would be helpful to link back to one of my popular older articles titled Choosing… Read more »
Jared
you’re ambulance chasing on lucas’s website? good god. is cooper stealing your thunder?
Is there a Mortgage Broker on this site? Can you or anyone else with some insight into this matter answer my question? I have mentioned elsewhere in this blog my situation. I have 800+ FICO Score. I am willing to put 20% down. My bank (HSBC) says it will not touch a condo in Miami. They said they will gladly finance my purchase if it is a single family home though. That brings us to the question; how are all these people able to close in these new buildings? Obviously not everyone has .5 million sitting around. How are they… Read more »
Just to add to the above, The tentative rate offered to me by HSBC is 5.75. When I decide to lock, it might be even less. I have been loyal to HSBC for 10 years (financed my Riverdale NY co-op at 5.5% – 15 Year and another SOBE condo at 6% – 15 Year from them. Riverdale is paid off and I have just 55K left on the SOBE condo currently valued at 300K) I am willing to dump HSBC if another Bank is willing to offer me a loan for a condo. But ofcourse, as you have seen above,… Read more »
AJ – my two favorites right now are http://www.madrate.com (Madision First Financial) and Pentagon Federal Credit Union (www.penfed.org). Penfed has an amazing 5/5 ARM. 5 year fixed, and then it resets only every 5 years. Rate is in the low 5’s for that one.
AJ
first, you can get financing in this market. second, not sure why you wouldn’t put your loan out to bid. loyalty to your bank means nothing. third, as a more practical concern, unless there is pressing financial reason for doing so, you should not maintain your mortgage with the same institution that you have a depository relationship with.
It’s going to be a renters paradise if developers don’t drop prices!
Hi nightowl and jcrimes, thanks for the tip. I will look into all possible situations. I am a bit uncomfortable with ARMs. Much before ARMs got a bad name in the past 3 years, I never went near them. You might call me financially concervative and old fashioned. But if that is the only way to go to secure a loan in these troubled times, I will probably lean that way, provided there is no prepayment penalty and I will pay off the mortgage before the rate resets. Jcrimes, can you elaborate why you said : “you should not maintain… Read more »
god forbid if experience financial turmoil, your bank now has easy access to setoff against your account(s) for any outstanding debts. same reason why you should avoid using a credit card issued by your bank.
Richard said: “The person calling for raw numbers to be posted is incorrect in his/her reasoning.” I think you misread what I posted. I was calling for the numbers to be posted in addition to the percentages – not that percentages are an incorrect way to compare. Using only one stat (percentage of closed units) to draw conclusions about the market is not wise. Percentages alone can be misleading, depending on the sample size. In the Feb 2008 “Condo Trends” post, it was stated that the market supply for ultra-high end condos went down 38%. When I looked at the… Read more »
Can anyone comment on the Sunny Isles Trump Towers? Is Chi going to be developed, or Solis for that matter?
I own a very high floor unit at Trump Towers with both ocean and intercostal views, 4 terraces and 11ft ceiling, and am trying to price it for my own reference
MBR – The Solis, amazingly, is being built. It has about 5 floors now but will tower somewhere in the 55 story range with around 150 residences and 150 condo-hotel units (that’s a lot). The Chi has not started and word from a realtor that I know is that it will never get built…who knows really for sure. I do think there are going to be a bunch of Trumps for sale and lease though.
MBR- It sounds like you have a D unit either the 04 or 06 line, which is a very large and spacious floor plan. It all depends on when you bought, trump 2 was sold preconstruction about 25% more then tower I and tower 3 was 25% more then tower 2. So as you can see there was significant price increases. If you bought early on in tower 1 the price in tower 3 increased over 50%. In a slow market like we are in today an owner in the first tower would be in a much better position.