Miami-Dade County Pending Home Sales Soar

May 5, 2010 by Lucas Lechuga

pending home sales

In today’s edition, The Miami Herald reported that April 2010 pending home sales in Miami-Dade County are up 71 percent year over year and up 6.6 percent since the prior month.  The data was released Tuesday by the Realtor Association of Greater Miami and the Beaches.

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48 Comments on "Miami-Dade County Pending Home Sales Soar"


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Anonymous
scrivener
6 years 4 months ago

Ahhhhhhhhhh.

Nothing like starting the morning off with good news.

scriv

Anonymous
Isabel
6 years 4 months ago

And the tourism sector ended 2009 better than expected which is good news for the Miami economy. International visitor revenue alone accounted for more than $11 billion in spending.

http://www.travelpulse.com/Resources/Editorial.aspx?n=71292

Anonymous
Joe
6 years 4 months ago

I’m guessing these numbers were substantially skewed by the expiration of Obama’s $8,000 freebie to homebuyers. It will be interesting to see if the uptick remains true throughout the summer and, if so, if there’s an accompanying (and non-trivial) increase in prices.

Anonymous
mishka
6 years 4 months ago
Isabel, You are totally correct. We do not need a newspaper article to tell us about it either. I was on a cruise from Miami recently and it was completely sold out!!! No room period. Also try going to SOBE any day of the week and not just the weekends. It is almost impossible to find parking. People are visiting and spending tons of cash in Miami. Usually 1 in every 100 visitors falls madly in love with Miami and decides to buy a place here. Some of them do go the extra mile and make it happen. That is… Read more »
Anonymous
Joe
6 years 4 months ago

1 in every 100 visitors? Maybe more like 1 in 1,000. Otherwise, Miami would need even more condos than it has now.

Anonymous
Drew
6 years 4 months ago

Last time I checked cruise ship passengers aren’t considered Miami-Dade tourists but instead are considered cruise industry tourists. Most go straight from MIA -> Port ->
MIA. Citing a fully-booked cruise to claim that Miami tourism is booming is just wrong.

For a more objective analysis of ’09 tourism (rather than a self-serving press release from the Greater Miami Convention & Visitors Bureau referenced above), see article below. (Mishka: below is a newspaper article. Isabel’s link was not a newspaper.)

http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/05/05/1613444/miami-dade-tourism-down-16-percent.html

Anonymous
Hugo P
6 years 4 months ago

Joe

Couldn’t agree more… This news has absolutely nothing new.

Wait until you get the numbers for the summer and you will see that the numbers don’t look that great. The $8k tax credit is affecting these figures dramatically

Anonymous
Gixxer 1000
6 years 4 months ago
Here is a link to a PDF created by Condo Vultures that details all the active listings and pending sales by county and unit type. http://www.condovultures.com/images/stories/vdreports/april2010/cv_active_pending_inventory_running_total_04_26_10.pdf Also, here is further evidence showing that April 2009 could be the bottom. Price per Square foot of sold homes for all of Miami-Dade: Jan 09 $168 Feb 09 $152 Mar 09 $162 Apr 09 $150 May 09 $164 Jun 09 $171 Jul 09 $158 Aug 09 $158 Sep 09 $177 Oct 09 $165 Nov 09 $165 Dec 09 $179 Jan 10 $160 Feb 10 $164 Mar 10 $185 When we look at the… Read more »
Anonymous
Insured Folk
6 years 4 months ago

PMI, a mortgage insurance provider, listed what it sees as the riskiest housing markets in America. Florida rocks it.

Anonymous
mishka
6 years 4 months ago

drew, no doubt. the travel industry took a hit in 2009 and we all know that. But we are talking about about April 2010. Things are a far cry today from what they have been last year.
whether cruise pax are actually Miami tourists is really not of my concern. I am just saying that people have started to spend money again.

Anonymous
Jamie
6 years 4 months ago
All I can add to this discussion is that I closed on the sale of of my 925SF condo yesterday. Cash buyer, did not need or use the $8K credit. $250/SF for a ground floor garden apartment. I lost a ton on this this investment, but still… Also, I am looking to rent a condo when my lease expires. In the buildings I know well on South Beach, asking rents are definitely up 10% -20% plus compared to a year ago. I can’t speak for the newer buildings on the mainland, especially those in bad areas, but I am convinced… Read more »
Anonymous
6 years 4 months ago

Miami took top spot on PMI report with a 100% chance of price declines in the next 2 years see page 11

http://www.pmi-us.com/PDF/q2_10_pmi_eret.html

Anonymous
DJ
6 years 4 months ago

Gtreat, love hearing good news!

Anonymous
drew299
6 years 4 months ago

is that true ?? one in a hundred people that visit miami buy a place ??

thats funny !!!

its true when you visit miami, you may love it !!! when you move to miami it

can be a different story……..

Anonymous
mishka
6 years 4 months ago

I said “Usually 1 in every 100 visitors falls madly in love with Miami and decides to buy a place here. Some of them do go the extra mile and make it happen”
The key word is SOME OF THEM.
So if 1 out of 10 or 20 people who want to buy actually make it happen, then it is close to what Joe’s number is like which is 1 in every 1000 or 2000 visitors to Miami end up buying a place here. That does not seem so far fetched. Does it?

Anonymous
BillP
6 years 4 months ago

They are either jobless or retired.

Anonymous
mishka
6 years 4 months ago
I saw this on Miami Today. They quoted Lucas extensively! End-users, long-term investors snap up downtown Miami condos By Yudislaidy Fernandez After a 2009 marked by discounted bulk sales, more long-term investors and end-users with financing are now buying downtown condos. The investor-owned units temporarily occupied by renters, plus those who’ve bought into the downtown condo lifestyle, are clearly changing the direction of downtown. Even in the slowly-recovering economy, retailers and restaurateurs are drawn to downtown’s growing office and residential community. Lewis Goodkin, a Miami-based real estate analyst, says in recent months the downtown condo market has been seeing end-user… Read more »
Anonymous
Makes Me Think
6 years 4 months ago
“Mr. Lechuga said. With downtown attracting national and international investors, particularly from Latin America” I guess AJ was right after all! He was the one who said the international buyers would come in to buy these condos. Many people on this site made fun of him then. MB was selling at $200/sf last year and some people said it was still a sucker’s bet and was holding out for $100/sf. less than a year later those same condos are selling for a 50% premium. What happened to the ACE and RT by the way? Hey, RT did you finally decide… Read more »
Anonymous
Joe
6 years 4 months ago

I guess other people are a lot more easily impressed than I am. The story above says Miami’s downtown occupancy rate has increased just 12 percentage points over the past year (to 74 percent). Given that prices dropped substantially in 2008-09 and that every buyer incentive under the sun has been available, this doesn’t seem like a huge gain.

Anonymous
Makes Me Think
6 years 4 months ago

Joe, everything is relative.
Last year at this time you and your gloom and doomers were predicting for the worst possible outcome for the downtown condo market . 1 year later as it appears those predictions were not based on reality but raher fantasy you claim to be not impressed.

Anonymous
gables
6 years 4 months ago
Makes me think, a total disaster was averted by some high risk (and very expensive) policies by the government to help the bond market and housing. But things are not rosey for people who own much of these assets-very much including real estate. it is down BIG TIME. down as far as some have suggested, no. but it is not recovering anytime soon. the market seems to be hanging in between the bulls and the bears prediction-probably where it should be after all. and just as a reminder, last year there were some significant deals to be had if someone… Read more »
Anonymous
Hugo P
6 years 4 months ago
I posted this a while back and it appears it got stuck in the “Awaiting Moderation” status… interesting. Here it goes, in case it goes through this time. This is in regards to unit 5404 at Marina Blue that Lucas posted as a “very well priced listing” at $540,000 for 1,663 square feet (decorator ready). Given that everyone is talking so much about the great turnaound for the Downtown Miami Market, here is more info on that particular unit for everyone’s sake: 1) The unit was purchased in February 2009 for $339,252 from the developer ($204psf). The entity that purchased… Read more »
Anonymous
why bother
6 years 4 months ago

hugo,
there are so many holes in your theory, I don’t even know where to begin. But suffice to say, you will keep passing all your life. Home ownership will just be a dream for you.

Anonymous
6 years 4 months ago
Hugo, Your post was awaiting moderation because I didn’t have time to correct your assumptions at the time. Unit 5404 would never rent for $2400 per month. Try $3000 per month. Unit 4904 is not a Sky Loft; it’s a much smaller unit. There are only six units in the entire building that are just like unit 5404. Also, why is it so difficult for you to understand that those units at Marina Blue were sold at a deep discount last Summer? There are at least 5 units that are pending at Marina Blue that are expected to close for… Read more »
Anonymous
Makes Me Think
6 years 4 months ago

Like I said before you experts keep runing the numbers over and over again and it just doesn’t make sense tto you but the people who bought those condos last year and have already cashed out are laughing while they count their money. Just face it guys, you missed a couple of chapters in the book so you will always be left scratching you head wondering how the people at the top got there.

Anonymous
scrivener
6 years 4 months ago

“1) The unit was purchased in February 2009 for $339,252 from the developer ($204psf). The entity that purchased it is called CINQUANTAQUATTRO04 LLC.” – – Hugo

What a coincidence, CINQUANTAQUATTRO04 LLC. was formed February 13, 2009.

scriv

Anonymous
Joe
6 years 4 months ago
Come on, Lucas. According to the latest story in which you were quoted, the average sales price of new condos bought from developers is DOWN from last year. That’s hardly indicative of a big bull market that us pessimists have lost out on. There might have been some great individual deals, but it’s not like the market as a whole has reversed and we’ve all missed the boat. As I said above, a 12-percentage-point increase in Miami condo occupancy at a time when unit prices and mortgages were low and buyer incentives were high isn’t a huge increase. Again, according… Read more »
Anonymous
Joe
6 years 4 months ago

Makes Me Think — Who are all these people who bought low and have already cashed out at huge profits? If there were dozens or hundreds of such deals, I’m sure Lucas would be listing them here on the site.

As the article above states, more than 1 in 4 Miami condos still sits unoccupied. That doesn’t sound like a big bull market to me.

Anonymous
gables
6 years 4 months ago
Lucas, my guess is Hugo is less critical of the previous purchase as the latest purchase. If you got the purchase at $200 sq ft, it is a great deal (although one has to wonder the legitimacy of unit 5404 being sold to the entitiy CINQUANTAQUATTRO04 LLC). But the current price is $325 sq ft. From your listings (not developers obviously) there were 6 of 16 sold above $300 sq ft. The price is within the range of previous sales, but “well priced” for a decorator ready unit? Great unit and view, but what do you think it will sell… Read more »
Anonymous
6 years 4 months ago

Joe,

Let me refresh your memory. I wrote the blog post below last June. I was referring to the exact units at Marina Blue that are now being sold to individual buyers, less than a year later, at “huge profits”. There were many who felt that prices would continue to plummet.

http://www.miamicondoinvestments.com/2009/06/09/looking-to-build-an-investment-group-to-qualify-for-bulk-pricing/

Anonymous
6 years 4 months ago
Yes, I stand by my words that unit 5404 is a well priced unit even though it’s decorator-ready. There are only six units like it in the entire building. This past December we sold unit 5108, another premium unit, for $431 per square foot. That was BEFORE the building became Fannie Mae approved. The availability of financing creates an increase in demand. That should go without saying. Try to find a 2 bedroom of that size, with that type of view, in a newer building for under $600K. There are only a few of them. Let’s forget about bulk sales… Read more »
Anonymous
Joe
6 years 4 months ago
Lucas — I’m not sure what we’re arguing. As I said above, there have been some great individual deals and even some great small-bulk deals. But I haven’t seen any evidence that individuals have been raking in huge resale profits over the past 6-12 months. If there was a list of such sales, I’m assuming you would have posted it here by now. As for the Marina Blue units you’re talking about, as was discussed in your post last year, “50% off preconstruction prices” didn’t exactly sound like a great deal at the time, given that just about everything in… Read more »
Anonymous
Hugo P
6 years 4 months ago
why bother Please go ahead and fill in the holes. Very interested to hear your views, but please provide facts and numbers and not the usual “the market will rebound” kind of stuff. And BTW, I am a home owner, thank you. I brought this up because this website is called MIAMI CONDO INVESTMENTS, and everytime I have posted in this site I have mentioned that some of these purchases don’t make any sense AS INVESTMENTS . If you are to live in one of these units, things change dramatically. Lucas, if the unit rents for $3,000, then using my… Read more »
Anonymous
Wild Bill
6 years 4 months ago

Hugo P,

You hit the nail on the head. More people should look at http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/ Once you do all the numbers all these deals stink.

Anonymous
andi
6 years 4 months ago

w/ stock market reflated, and govt support it did support RE prices a bit..But mark my word..2011 would be a horror….

Anonymous
why bother
6 years 4 months ago
Hugo, you said “you are expecting significant appreciation in the next 5 years. That means you probably think this unit will sell for something like $700k in 5 years. Like gables said, very interested to see what you think it will be worth in 5 years. ” Let me tell you something. In 5 years, this unit will go for a minimum 850k if not a million dollars+. From a glut scenario in 2008, we will have a severe housing shortage in 2015. So severe that it might create another bubble. In fact I am afraid that if developers do… Read more »
Anonymous
gables
6 years 4 months ago
why bother, i agree with you on possible future supply of housing. it will create a bit of a conundrum. as supply dwindles, demand will rise along with prices-in theory. my big question mark is on the demand side. will demand be as voracious as the past decade? this was fueled by investors AND homebuyers with access to cheap money following the belief that housing prices never fall-so no matter what price you purchase at you can still sell out of the position at a future higher point. we will have fewer investors and homebuyers going forward-and cheap money at… Read more »
Anonymous
JL
6 years 4 months ago

Expect a fairly stagnant market in the $400K+ market for the next decade. You need very loose lending guidelines to juice the upper end. Don’t hold your breath.

Also, the stock market is probably going to suck the next couple months and housing macro data will suck likewise with the absence of the tax credit-buying. Expect alot of double-dip talk in the near future.

These past few months were noise to the upside and the next few months will be noise to the downside. Reality will show itself 4 months from now… wherever that may be.

Anonymous
Joe
6 years 4 months ago

gables, why bother — Downtown Miami has a 74% occupancy rate, with full occupancy not expected to be reached for 2-3 more years based on the current absorption and rental rates. That would bring us to between mid-year 2012 and mid-year 2013. Even if the economy recovers in roaring fashion, I can’t imagine there will be a “severe shortage” of housing by 2015, least of all in Miami. I’m really curious about your underlying logic on those projections/fears, especially given the lack of cheap and easy credit (and the general lack of good jobs coming to Miami).

Anonymous
gables
6 years 4 months ago
joe, there is most definately a slowdown (almost complete) of new housing and condo stock occuring now and probably into the future. this will soon create an “apparent shortage”. it wont be a crititcal shortage, but over the past few years people have become accustomed to choosing from 100 different potential units. in the future that selection will be down to 10. historically this is not a problem, but compared to the recent past, psychologically buyers will feel pressured into what seems to be disappearing stock-and act accordingly. if cheap money is available when this happens you will get another… Read more »
Anonymous
Joe
6 years 4 months ago
gables — I understand that housing starts are way off, but after the historic overbuild during the boom years, it seems like it will take more than 3-5 years for a shortage — real or perceived — to affect Miami r.e. prices. I understand your point about buyers wanting to see 100 units instead of 10, but I think the probable lack of easy, cheap credit will more than offset that factor. —— JL — I forgot to reply to you last night, but I agree 100% with your comment about the $400+ market. That segment is all but stagnant… Read more »
Anonymous
Mark
6 years 4 months ago

For the ones who believe in Santa Claus!

Today in Miami Herald

Four of 10 South Florida homes are `under water”

http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/05/10/1622081/four-of-10-south-florida-homes.html

Anonymous
6 years 4 months ago
Mortgage borrower delinquency rates in the first quarter of 2010 continued to be highest in Nevada (15.98 percent) and Florida (14.65 percent), With regard to regional forecasts, Florida is anticipated to experience the highest mortgage delinquency rate by the end of 2010, reaching as high as 18.2 percent. http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/TransUnion-National-Mortgage-Delinquencies-Fall-174-Percent-in-2010-Opening-Quarter-1256842.htm More than four of every 10 owners of single-family homes in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale area owed more on their mortgages than their homes were worth at the end of March, according to a report released Monday. In March, just over 51 percent of all homes that sold in the area, which… Read more »
Anonymous
why bother
6 years 4 months ago
first off, 4 in 10 is nothing. it used to be much higher. so actually things are getting better. Second, the reason these people own homes and you dont is because, they value home ownership. just because the paper value dipped below what they owe does not mean that they will walk away from their homes unless of course they lost their jobs or some thing like that. as long as they are able to afford to service their loans, 99% home owners will do it, especially if it is their primary residence, market value be damned. You guys sound… Read more »
Anonymous
Joe
6 years 4 months ago

why bother — “4 in 10 is nothing”? Seriously?

The article says 83% of Miami’s homes declined in value year over year, so how do you figure the number of homes underwater “used to be much higher”? Did Miami homeowners dump a lot of extra cash (equity) into their homes over the last year to make up for the declining prices? If not, your math doesn’t seem to add up.

Anonymous
gables
6 years 4 months ago
why bother, the concern is people who bought homes in the past 5 years. many of these folks have no equity in their homes. they purchased with very little, if any, down payment. and they have not owned long enough to have reduced any principle. these people lack mobility for better jobs because they cannot sell without taking a huge loss. thus foreclosures and shortsales are so common. i agree not many of the people underwater will walk away. but this still adds up to alot of homes entering the market. remember, only a small percentage of total homes are… Read more »
Anonymous
Gixxer 1000
6 years 4 months ago

Here is a blog post addressing the situation of people underwater who should be walk away but aren’t:

http://blog.altosresearch.com/maybe-ltvs-dont-matter-as-much-as-you-think/#more-1548

Anonymous
Drew
6 years 4 months ago

JP Morgan just warned investors in an SEC filing that their underwater borrowers may walk away. Do you think the bank would want to disclosre that to investors? Of course not. Has the problem of strategic defaults grown so significant that it may materially affect the bank’s value? Clearly.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/05/11/jpmorgan-chase-warns-inve_n_571103.html?source=patrick.net#title_permalink

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