The Ultimate Market Stat Monday: Downtown Development Authority’s Mid-Year Report
Despite the fact that many media outlets and whispers in the marketplace would leave you to believe that the cards are stacked against us in the Miami condo market, things really aren’t so bad according to the Downtown Development Authority (DDA) Mid-Year 2017 Report. As they state in the report, “2017 has not been the best of times, but it hasn’t been the worst of times either.”
I have included the full 28 page report below, but also a synopsis…
The report separates the rental market into two sub-categories. Conventional rentals are the rental-only buildings that are all managed by one company. 2017 has brought 969 new rental units to the market, leaving just under 3,600 under construction. The condo rentals are considered shadow inventory since there is no way to tell whether a unit would be a rental, resale, or final sale until after delivery.
Amazingly, despite increased inventory, rental prices have increased slightly in conventional rental communities. I had previously been skeptical about the rental community market with so much inventory going up, but our neighborhood is very attractive and people are flocking in.
The segments of the rental market showing the biggest price gains are 1 bedrooms and 3 bedrooms, showing 3.4% and 3.6% growth since last year respectively. Studios are showing a slight decrease in price, but I suspect that this is due to the fact that tenants who would typically take a studio are now taking one bedrooms. Three bedrooms are less plentiful in the neighborhood, so are almost always a good investment opportunity.
The market in new developments is also hanging on. The researchers report that 2016 and 2017 YTD have garnered about 50% of the sales experienced in 2015, which experienced 25%-50% less than 2014. It’s undeniable that things have changed, but we will survive and the projects will be sold.
While the market has slowed markedly, projects that are currently under construction and 55%-60% sold do not seem to be in distress, according to the researchers.
One submarket that could flourish in the upcoming 18 months is the smaller-scale boutique project market. According to the report and our experience, these developments tend to capitalize on infill lots between the larger developments and do very well when the larger buildings slow down.
Our resales are facing a tremendous amount of inventory with a 6% decline in overall pricing since last year. From July 2016 to June 2017 there were an average of 99 resales sold. That rate needs to be raised by an additional 500-700 listings sold per month to reach pricing equilibrium.
The conclusion of the report is that because so many new construction projects continue to be delivered and fewer projects are announced, we could see some stability in 2018 if nothing crazy happens.