Marina Blue Bulk Sale – A Closer Look

January 10, 2009 by Lucas Lechuga

Marina Blue

As many of you have already heard, a 60-unit bulk sale recently occurred at Marina Blue.  Two local newspapers published articles about the deal earlier this week.

An investment group, under the name Welcome Bay LLC, paid slightly over $13M for the 60 condos.  The transaction was recorded on December 24, 2008.

View from Marina Blue

The 60 condos included in the Marina Blue bulk sale sold for an average price of $200 per square foot.  Below, you will find the bulk condo sale separated as per the 60 recorded deeds.  As many of you have discussed in a previous post about the Marina Blue bulk condo sale, it is important for everyone to realize that these are not retail prices.  An individual cannot and will not be able to purchase condos at Marina Blue at these prices.  The 60 condos below were part of package deal with prices that were distributed accordingly to arrive at the $200 per square foot average.

Correction: I just found out that there was an error in recording the deeds with the county.  Each unit was sold for exactly $200 per square foot.

  • Unit 411 – $169,000 – 845 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 610 – $169,000 – 845 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 703 – $196,400 – 982 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 810 – $169,000 – 845 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 911 – $169,000 – 845 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 1111 – $169,000 – 845 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 1511 – $169,000 – 845 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 1703 – $188,600 – 943 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 1801 – $263,000 – 1,315 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 1802 – $168,600 – 843 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 1812 – $263,600 – 1,318 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 1901 – $263,000 – 1,315 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 1906 – $189,600 – 948 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 2007 – $166,600 – 833 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 2009 – $264,600 – 1,323 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 2012 – $263,600 – 1,318 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 2104 – $241,600 – 1,208 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 2106 – $189,600 – 948 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 2202 – $168,600 – 843 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 2204 – $241,600 – 1,208 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 2312 – $263,600 – 1,318 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 2404 – $241,600 – 1,208 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 2503 – $188,600 – 943 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 2512 – $263,600 – 1,318 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 2709 – $264,600 – 1,323 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 2805 – $239,600 – 1,198 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 2903 – $188,600 – 943 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 3002 – $168,600 – 843 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 3201 – $263,000 – 1,315 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 3202 – $168,600 – 843 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 3304 – $241,600 – 1,208 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 3306 – $189,600 – 948 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 3401 – $263,000 – 1,315 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 3404 – $241,600 – 1,208 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 3405 – $239,600 – 1,198 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 3407 – $166,600 – 833 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 3412 – $263,600 – 1,318 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 3509 – $264,600 – 1,323 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 3704 – $241,600 – 1,208 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 3804 – $241,600 – 1,208 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 3901 – $263,000 – 1,315 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 3905 – $264,400 – 1,322 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 3909 – $264,600 – 1,323 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 4002 – $168,600 – 843 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 4105 – $239,600 – 1,198 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 4107 – $166,600 – 833 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 4204 – $241,600 – 1,208 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 4212 – $263,600 – 1,318 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 4303 – $188,600 – 943 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 4305 – $239,600 – 1,198 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 4307 – $166,600 – 833 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 4407 – $166,600 – 833 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 4409 – $264,600 – 1,323 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 4504 – $241,600 – 1,208 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 4506 – $189,600 – 948 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 4601 – $263,000 – 1,315 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 4705 – $239,600 – 1,198 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 4807 – $166,600 – 833 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 5006 – $189,600 – 948 SF – $200/SF
  • Unit 5106 – $189,600 – 948 SF – $200/SF

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171 Comments on "Marina Blue Bulk Sale – A Closer Look"


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Anonymous
Cash flow
7 years 8 months ago

oh man! What was it that someone said about people elbowing each other to buy at $300/sf in MB just one week ago? Pwned!!!!!

Anonymous
Cash flow
7 years 8 months ago

Will not get these prices? I wouldn’t be so sure of that lechuga

Anonymous
Hugo P
7 years 8 months ago
While I agree that individual buyers cannot get these prices, you have to assume that if the bulk buyer bought to sell (might be the case, at least for some units), getting 10-20% more in less than a year is a great return. If this is the case, and you take a typical 2 BR unit ( 1,318 sf – $241,600 – $182/sf) that sells for 20% more than the bulk sale would still be a GREAT discount to other units ($220/sf, $290,000). AJ, want to revise your estimate or still sticking with $350/sf? These prices will continue to go… Read more »
Anonymous
Generalmagic
7 years 8 months ago

Why would anybody purchase now? If I purchase now and let’s say I need to sell down the road, I now know that these guys can always undercut my price. Isn’t this a risk?

Anonymous
John
7 years 8 months ago

Has EWM stopped updating their ‘facts and trends’? The last info for condos in Dade county is from September and shows 25,116 condos for sale, 513 sold – a little over 4 YEAR SUPPLY.

Does anyone know where to get newer inventory data?

Anonymous
mark(not zilbert)
7 years 8 months ago

Lucas, your math is wrong. The price per square foot comes out to $200/SF on the button.

Anonymous
mark(not zilbert)
7 years 8 months ago

please correct this. Otherwise you are misinforming your clients.

Anonymous
7 years 8 months ago

Mark (not zilbert),

You’re correct. I made the change. I accidentally summed the average price per square foot total and divided by 60 instead of summing the purchase prices and dividing by the sum of the total square footage. Thanks for the heads up.

Anonymous
gables
7 years 8 months ago
What are the odds that the bulk buyer bought more units than really desired, in order to get his hands on a number of premium units that he could not buy in bulk otherwise? AJ, you are good with the lines, can you possibly separate this bulk purchase into desirable vs average units? Over the next year, unless they are renting for nice profit, would be interesting to see how many of these average units the buyer unloads for minimal profit, so they can hold the desirables longer term and make a nice profit after a rebound, without tying up… Read more »
Anonymous
Joe
7 years 8 months ago

Gables, With this particular project, that type of distinction is not very applicable being that every unit has a bay view.

Anonymous
AJ
7 years 8 months ago
gables, The best line and my favorite line 08 is not there. When I first saw that line I saud, You got to be a Movie Star or a Drug Dealer to get a 08 line. It is stuff dreams are made of. OK, some lines are decent if not the best. I wouldn’t mind line 09. I would challenge anyone to go to Welcome Bay and say “Dude, you paid $200/sf average, can I please have one of those prizes for $300/sf” and see what happens. May be the bulk buyer will laugh his butt off. Hugo, There is… Read more »
Anonymous
Realist Bob
7 years 8 months ago
AJ, A bunch of guys just walked off the street and bought 60 water view units for $200 psf. This happened for real: Marina Blue flats were just had for $200 psf. Sorry. Several well-funded investors looked at the deal, did due diligence and passed. So it appears that they believe as I do that $200 psf is not the bottom. The MB investors would sell all of those units for $220 psf if they were to receive such an offer tomorrow–they would be stupid not to. If the market gets as bad as I suspect, in a few months,… Read more »
Anonymous
Wild Bill
7 years 8 months ago

The 1/1 units have 13′ wide living rooms. You enter the unit with the dishwasher and sink to your side. Hardly premium units.
I suspect in a few months the building will go from only allowing yearly rental contracts to monthly agreements. All they need is a flashing neon vacancy sign out front.

This will be a slow bleeding building.

Anonymous
AJ
7 years 8 months ago

If the doomsayers are so confident of their predictions, explain the 50 Biscayne paradox or just zip it.

Anonymous
AJ
7 years 8 months ago

Lucas,
Thanks for the recent rentals link. Absolute wealth of info. You are the first RE agent who is willing to part with privileged information. Thanks.
I am sure Good things will come your way as there are plenty of grateful people here.

To temper the praise, there is one thing that your site lacks. I have to go to a couple of other sites to get this info. It is imperative that you add this to make your site complete and a one stop Miami RE exchange (hope I’m not being too pushy):

FlOOR PLANS!

Anonymous
AJ
7 years 8 months ago
Who is talking about rents going down? Leases signed in the past month in 1800 Club: 1. A 1 BR flat signed a lease on Dec 31st for $1700 2. A 2 BR flat signed a lease on Dec 12th for $2400 3. A 3 BR flat signed a lease on Nov 15th for $3500 All these lease dates are way way after the meltdown, turmoil and job losses. And leases are signed with in a week unlike sales which have a month or two gestation periods. So the market butchery must have been heavily weighing on the minds of… Read more »
Anonymous
Joe
7 years 8 months ago

AJ, You said that you don’t believe Marina Blue flats could be had for 300-350/sf. But when I check the recent sales Lucas lists for MB it shows that one of the 3 listed sales was at 307.98/sf (unit 3701).

Anonymous
onemortime
7 years 8 months ago

This site is AMAZING ,Lucas you’ve done it again!!!KEEP UP THIS WONDERFUL WORK.

Anonymous
gables
7 years 8 months ago
AJ, Those rental quotes are a little misleading. The previous several leases were at or under $1500 for the 1B. And the 2B and 3B appear to be HUGE appartments-pretty good bargains when you check out price per sq ft. Not sure if you would consider them a standard 2B, although you know the building far better than myself. I would not hold my breath on rental rates hanging tough. A review of several other buildings with more transactions does show a decrease over the past year. Just a guess, but by summer I think many new buildings in the… Read more »
Anonymous
letuz
7 years 8 months ago

Can someone please point me in the right direction? I do not see the “recent rentals” link!

Anonymous
gables
7 years 8 months ago

click on view all miami condos at top of the page

Anonymous
jcrimes
7 years 8 months ago

Lucas
you’re beyond wrong. no, i can’t go to the developer and say give me one unit for 200 sq/ft please. i can however, squeeze the individual unit holder to get the best price possible. and if he’s a stubborn one, insisting on his 300-400 sq ft (which no f%^cking bank will lend to you on to purchase in any event), then i’ll talk to the bank once they foreclose on his ass.

seriously, for all of you that think bulk sales/foreclosures won’t effect pricing going forward, you’re playing checkers, not chess.

Anonymous
Realist Bob
7 years 8 months ago
AJ, This Miami condo renter (and homeowner elsewhere) is paying much less than advertised rental rates. Much lower than rates advertised on Craigslist and everywhere else. I suspect Renter Tom is paying well below-advertised rental rates. Dumb money pays full price. Dumb money exists in every market. Markets move in fits and starts and it’s often difficult to discern macro trends without the perspective of hindsight. But the trend is here and it’s downward. To paraphrase William Gibson, the deflationary future is here. It’s just not widely distributed yet. Before you bought in Miami, you were warned several times not… Read more »
Anonymous
MB
7 years 8 months ago

what does this mean to my investment at MB???

I paid a whole lot more!!!

Who can I sue!!!??

How can they get away with this?

Anonymous
DJ
7 years 8 months ago

MB, I think the best you can do is just hope that prices for individual sales don’t fall to this level. Unfortunately you can’t sue someone for making a bad investment decision.

Anonymous
jcrimes
7 years 8 months ago

MB
it means you’re underwater. as for your rights, you don’t have an action in tort nor do you have a contract with the developer obligating it to sell other units for a particular price. in short, you’re up a particularly noxious river with no paddle to boot. such is the way of miami condo investing.

Anonymous
AJ
7 years 8 months ago
Realist Bob, In the heady days 05-06, the Right Wing Extremists (RE agents, Developers, Mortgage Brokers etc) scared the shit out of everyone – It’s now or never. They told stories, lies, inane statistics and opinions – God is not making anymore land etc. Millions of people believed them and they also succumbed to their own greed too. I was a moderationist (If there is such a word). I was crowing back in winter 2004 that this is headed for a major disaster when I saw 5% price gains per month! Except for a few housing bubble blogs, no one… Read more »
Anonymous
Raffi
7 years 8 months ago
I think this bulk deal is great for everyone. Marina Blue will now be partically sold. The HOA wont have to raise the price or have any special assesments. 50 Biscayne is a stable building thanks to the bulk buy (although Jorge Perez still sort of owns them). You guys have to realize that this is 60 less units for sale. These investors are not stupid, they don’t just shell out 13M without thinking they are going to have good returns. The investment game has risks and rewards and I think this is a great long-term investment. Most people on… Read more »
Anonymous
makes me think
7 years 8 months ago
you guys are nuts! what makes you think you know what will happen in these buildings in the next 3 years? To say $300/sf is the min you will see in any building is nothing but a wild guess. Someone buying 60 units at $200/sf may help stabilize MB short term but it can’t be good for the general miami condo market because the big money will use that as a benchmark when considering other bulk sales. How can it be good for the poor slob that paid $400+/sf? What exactly do you think will happen to those 60 units?… Read more »
Anonymous
moretroops
7 years 8 months ago
Affordability, and supply and demand. It’s not that complicated. Miami condos still cost too much compared to mean incomes, and we have a massive multi-year supply (somewhere north of 50k units). Economics always wins, fellas. And to those thinking that bulk sales like the one at MB will help, guess again. The buyer is just a well-financed flipper; those units are still on the market. Supply and demand. Pretty simple. PS, if AJ’s not underwater yet, it’s only because his down payment was enormous. Bad Idea Jeans. No offense AJ, but you’ve forfeited the right to advise me on real… Read more »
Anonymous
Renter Tom
7 years 8 months ago

For the record, listed rental rates are meaningless. I pay 23% less than the listed rate. Could have driven it down a bit more too I suspect….

Anonymous
Wild Bill
7 years 8 months ago

Bulk buyers turn units into rentals……. banks see buildings with high amount of rentals as invesment properties……investment properties are charged higher intrest rates………..higher interest rates means less people can qualify for a certain purchase price………more buyers look elsewhere. That’s your downward spiral. Takes time, but in the end the original owners are screwed.

Anonymous
AJ
7 years 8 months ago
Rt, I rented my unit outside of the MLS system for more than the average list price. It won’t show on the compiled list either. So cases like mine neutralizes cases like yours. Makes me think, you said “How can it be good for the poor slob that paid $400+/sf? “. It is great for him. Now he bought into a stable building. Tell me something. The guy who bought stocks when the Dow was 12000 was better off than the guy who bought it at 14000. Similarly the guys who bought at Dow 10,000 or 8,000 is better off… Read more »
Anonymous
jcrimes
7 years 8 months ago
AJ i don’t know what to say to you. first, i don’t agree with your groupings of folks. there’s far more strung out investors in these buildings that actually closed than you care to acknowledge. second, the simple fact is, if you’re an individual unit holder, unless you find someone willing to do an all cash offer, you will not be able to find a buyer who will be able to get financing at 300 sq ft or more for a prolonged period of time. you either keep on holding even if you don’t want to (and shell out cash… Read more »
Anonymous
jcrimes
7 years 8 months ago

AJ
the problem with your stock analogy is that you fail to realize i can liquidate instantaneously and more importantly, don’t have to pay several hundred dollars a month in hoa and taxes. thus, my breakeven point is far easier to reach.

Anonymous
Realist Bob
7 years 8 months ago

AJ, truly amazing arguments. Entertaining, but so far off the mark, I don’t know where to start… anyone who acts on your “logic” deserves whatever happens to their pocketbook… natural selection has its uses.

Anonymous
DJ
7 years 8 months ago

I don’t care what anyone says, if you paid $400/sq. foot, and now units are going for $200/sq. foot (bulk sale or not), that’s gotta be a shitty feeling.

Anonymous
AJ
7 years 8 months ago
jcrimes, 50 Biscayne paradox: Bayfront flats $400-$500/sf West facing flats $350-$400/sf. No discounts, no deals. Of course I agree with your #35. I know stocks are more liquid. I used this analogy to assure MB not to lose heart over the evil dance of the LWEs (left wing extremists). I am front in line to wish you to get your river view loft in Epic for $300/sf or less. I don’t know where some of these guys are getting the idea that I don’t want you all to benefit. By all means, if you can buy a flat for less… Read more »
Anonymous
AJ
7 years 8 months ago

Realist Bob,
You sound exactly like Renter Tom, including the moniker!

Anonymous
Realist Bob
7 years 8 months ago
MB, There are 60, fully arms-length, publicly-recorded comps in MarinaBlue that say you are seriously underwater. No sane lender will ignore those comps so you will not be able to sell at your full price (or any price above $200 psf) to any buyer who requires substantial mortgage financing. Additionally, MarinaBlue will have so many renters and non-occupant owners that most lenders will not lend to any potential buyer at virtually any price. You can sue but you almost certainly will not win. You can try a short sale and hope for the best… or you can walk, and get… Read more »
Anonymous
Realist Bob
7 years 8 months ago
No, AJ, I am not Renter Tom. Notice that I did not rail against Obama because of the bk law changes that are sure to come under an Obama administration… changes which will allow judges to modify mortgage contracts to the detriment of lenders. I believe such changes are necessary because they will help the market reach bottom sooner. Those who have been paying attention will have observed that Citi now says they support changes to the bk laws to allow mortgage cramdowns. I suspect Citi looking for legal cover that will allow them to modify mortgages originated by their… Read more »
Anonymous
moretroops
7 years 8 months ago
AJ thinks buyers can “ride out” this trend for a couple of years and be alright – simply because they’re in a “stable” building. AJ, my man, you will not see 400/sq ft. in places like MB for many many years. You and I know that those prices were the result of a false market — a speculative bubble built on (1) nonexistent/lax lending standards; (2) temporarily low supply; and (3) MSM-fueled hype. Every one of those three factors is working against you right now. They’re killing you. Credit is incredibly tight. Supply is literally at an all-time high (and… Read more »
Anonymous
Realist Bob
7 years 8 months ago

Sorry Citi did not acquire Countrywide; the smarties at Bank of America did.

Anonymous
gables
7 years 8 months ago
AJ, One major assumption you are implying is that the bulk buyers can rent all of their units at positive cash flow. Under normal circumstances a 10% vacancy rate may be expected. In these times in Miami, you can bet the rate will be higher, or the rental rates will be much lower. This will put significant pressure on individual buyers expecting to rent and cover costs on their units. With many buyers, I would bet the carrying cost of mortgage, HOA and taxes will push $4k per month on a 2B-when the rental rate will be closer to $2k… Read more »
Anonymous
makes me think
7 years 8 months ago
AJ, from what I’ve read on this forum about you, I think you are one of the good guys. Please don’t take it as a personal attack when I tell you that you have no f***king clue what you are talking about when it comes to investing and financial matters. You are probably one of those stock market investors who bought all those high flying nasdaq stocks in 2001 still waiting for them to come back. Didn’t you say you are eating $3oo/mo on one of your condo investment an investment that by the way is rapidly depreciating. At this… Read more »
Anonymous
Realist Bob
7 years 8 months ago

makes me think, well said!

From the movie The Patriot with Mel Gibson: “Aim small, miss small.” This also applies to investing in turbulent (risky) markets.

Another movie: know when to fold.

Anonymous
Renter Tom
7 years 8 months ago
AJ, regarding your post #33….man oh man oh man. I don’t even know if a response is necessary since your post speaks for itself….nuts! Or should we start calling you “AJ the Shill”? You simply can not compare buying real estate to buying stocks….they are two different animals. Why not compare it to buying pickles? A condo is “consumed” through remodeling, repairs, replacements, taxes, HOA fees, etc. It can’t really change, expand its income, grow, etc. At most it can make a small profit in rents each year and maybe appreciate at or around inflation in an attempt to preserve… Read more »
Anonymous
Raffi
7 years 8 months ago

jcrimes, I just wanted to point out that the HOA will be stable, no sudden increases year over year, the place will be well maintained, etc.

I’m sure these investors did their due diligence, I’m sure they calculated their carrying costs, market situation, etc. They are probably investing long-term i.e. 10-15yrs. If you look at it from that perspective I don’t see how they can lose.

Anonymous
gables
7 years 8 months ago
Equity markets around the world have fallen 40%, give or take. These are very liquid markets-at least in the US. Newspapers report that the US RE market has fallen anywhere from 10% to 20% from peak, across the country. Local areas such as Miami RE have been reported to drop 40% to 50% from peak. Similar drop to the equity markets. Difference is, the RE market is quite illiquid. Foreclosures and bulk buyers are actually buying at these discounts. But there is a false hope that individual buyers will be unable to capitalize on these discounts-citing the MLS listing for… Read more »
Anonymous
makes me think
7 years 8 months ago

I have noticed that banks have not been foreclosing on properties the last couple of months. I am suspecting it is because of the holiday season and the slow resale markets at this time of year. They don’t wan to pay HOA dues/maint cost while properties sit on their books. I believe foreclosure activity will pick up in the coming months for spring selling season. Look for deeper discounts on those condos in miami.

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