Brickell Key Condo Index – June 2008

July 4, 2008 by Lucas Lechuga

Brickell Key

The following data was collected on June 27, 2008.  It’s been quite some time since my last Brickell Key Condo Index.  In fact, the last was published in January 2008, or 5 months ago.  What’s interesting is that it has been one year since I started the Brickell Key Condo Index, so in this update we’ll be able to see how prices have fared over the past 12 months.

As many of you might have guessed, the average price per square foot of Brickell Key condos listed in the MLS has continued to go down since the January 2008 update. In fact, average list prices have gone down across the board throughout the 10 Brickell Key condo buildings represented in this index.  I’ll show you the percentage decreases in each building towards the bottom of this post.  In January 2008, the average price per square foot of condos listed in Brickell Key was $486.07. The average now stands at $450.49. That’s about a 7.3% drop in list prices in 5 months. More interesting is the drop since June 2007.  At that time, the average price of condos listed in Brickell Key was at $519.97.  That means list prices in Brickell Key have come down a little over a 13% in 12 months.

Brickell Key Condo Index - June 2008 listed

Average price per square foot of Brickell Key condos currently listed on the MLS:

The average price per square foot of condos that have sold within the past five months has gone down as well. This average dropped to $367.19 per square foot from the $416.92 that we saw in January 2008.  This average stood at $445.59 in June 2007. That’s a 11.9% drop within 5 months and a 17.6% drop within 12 months.  The average price per square foot for closed units at St. Louis was not included in this month’s index, however, because there haven’t been any closed sales within the past 6 months.  That’s why you’ll see the absence of a bar for St. Louis in the graph below.  The percentage drop may have been smaller had there been closings at St. Louis but nobody knows for sure since we don’t know where the market clearing value for these condos lies.

Brickell Key Condo Index - June 2008 sold

The average price per square foot of condos sold within the past six months:

  • Brickell Key One – 520 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $321.16
  • Brickell Key Two – 540 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $299.76
  • Carbonell – 901 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $408.33
  • Courts Brickell Key – 801 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $360.31
  • Courvoisier Courts – 701 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $336.01
  • Isola – 770 Claughton Island Drive | 33131 | $265.79
  • One Tequesta Point – 888 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $392.33
  • St. Louis – 800 Claughton Island Drive | 33131 | N/A
  • Three Tequesta Point – 848 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $465.02
  • Two Tequesta Point – 808 Brickell Key Drive | 33131 | $455.98

The chart below reveals additional statistics pertaining to the 10 aforementioned condo buildings in Brickell Key:

Brickell Key Condo Index - June 2008

The first column to the right of each condo development is the difference in the average sales price and list price for this month, expressed as a percentage. As you can see, there is, in some cases, very large discrepancies in the average list price versus the average sales price for condos that have closed within the past six months.  Notice the 36.75% difference in these two averages for Isola and about 29% differences for Brickell Key II and Carbonell.  Wow!  I guess list prices in these buildings still have a ways to go to catch up to price level where there’s actual demand to buy.

The second column is the number of active listings in each development currently in the MLS. The third column shows the percentage that these listings represent over the total number of condo units in each development. If you compare this month’s chart to the one published in January 2008, you’ll notice that the majority of the Brickell Key condo buildings have had a slight increase in the number of available listings.  The cells highlighted in green reveal those developments that have active listings that represent less than 10 percent of the the overall units in the building. As I’ve stated before, I find this to be a very healthy number. The ones highlighted in red reveal those developments that have active listings that represent over 20 percent of the overall units in the building. Proceed with caution if you’re buying in a condo building where the available listings represents over 20 percent of the total number of units. Condo developments with active listings representing less than 10 percent of the overall condos are considered very safe, in my opinion, and anything in the 10-15 percent range is considered normal, even in a healthy market.

The fourth column shows the number of pending sales while the fifth column displays the number of closed sales within the past six months in the MLS. All of the buildings have had at least 3 closed sales within the past six months except St. Louis, which laid a fat goose egg.  Two Tequesta Point experienced the most closings in that time frame with 9.

The sixth column shows the difference in the average list prices from January 2008 and this month, expressed a percentage. Those highlighted in red reveal those condo developments which have had a drop in their average list price.  As you can see, each of the 10 buildings in Brickell Key, represented in this index, have experienced a drop in their average list prices within the past five months.

The seventh column reveals the difference in average sales prices from January 2008 and this month, expressed as a percentage. Only Two Tequesta Point and Three Tequesta Point have had increases in their average price per square foot for units sold within the past six months.  With 9 and 6 closed sales, respectively, within the past six months, perhaps these two buildings have established a floor?  I guess time will tell.

It’ll be interesting to see where prices for Brickell Key condos will reside in another 12 months.  My take is that about 4 or 5 of these condo buildings are close to reaching their bottoms while the other half still needs at least another 4-6 months to reach that point.

Leave a Reply

131 Comments on "Brickell Key Condo Index – June 2008"


Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Anonymous
AJ
8 years 2 months ago

Sorry to repeat this question. Before someone could answer to this in a previous thread, a new topic got posted. Can some wise person throw some light on this?

Which lien is inferior and which lien is superior?
Is it something in this order?

1. Prop Taxes
2. HOA
3. Mortgage (or)

1. Mortgage
2. HOA
3. Taxes (or)

1. HOA
2. Prop Taxes
3. Mortgage

Second Question:

Can any aggrieved party initiate the foreclosure proceedings, regardless of the inferiority of its lien?

Thanks

Anonymous
Un-Related
8 years 2 months ago

AJ,

TAXES (liens) are always superior (LOL)!

Anonymous
Renter Tom
8 years 2 months ago

Any lien should be able to be foreclosed upon. The government is always has priority. Don’t they teach that to Realtors®?

Anonymous
moretroops
8 years 2 months ago

Yes, and unlike the others you can go to jail for failure to pay taxes. My buddy Wesley
Snipes will fill you in.

Anonymous
8 years 2 months ago

moretroops,

Wesley Snipes didn’t pay his income taxes. That’s completely different. I don’t think they’ll throw you in jail for failure to pay your property taxes. They just take away your property and sell it to recover the money.

Anonymous
Renter Tom
8 years 2 months ago

Not paying your income taxes isn’t the problem with Mr. Snipes, it is filing false returns or failing to file. You won’t go to jail for not paying property taxes…although you might need a cell for a place to sleep if you lose your house!

Anonymous
gables
8 years 2 months ago
throwing people in jail for not paying property taxes might not be a bad idea. takes away the incentive for mortgage fraud since the higher sale price will correspond to higher assessment, and more jail time! Lucas, thanks for the update on Brickell Key. Of particular use for us prospective RE buyers is the difference between list and sale price. This issue is creating a big drag on sideline buyers. List prices that are too high wont even get me to look twice at a property, even to negotiate lower. The more info we have to show the list prices… Read more »
Anonymous
BFG
8 years 2 months ago
AJ – I believe you got it right the first time: taxes, HOA, then mortgage. Any one of them can foreclose on a property. However, if the bank wants to foreclose, there will still be oustanding liens for HOA and taxes. If the primary mortgage holder forecloses, then any secondary mortgages are, of course, wiped out. If the HOA wants to foreclose, they don’t have to pay off the mortgage to do so. When someone doesn’t pay their taxes in a given year, the amount of taxes owed, plus penalties, is rolled into a “tax certificate” that is auctioned off… Read more »
Anonymous
8 years 2 months ago

Lucas,

I have been proven right this whole time. When will you start listening to me? :)

Miami condo prices will still fall another 70% or so until prices are about 150 a sq foot/

Anonymous
8 years 2 months ago
Chris, I don’t think anyone ever doubted that prices would continue to fall. In fact, a little less than a year ago I wrote a post entitled “Advice to Miami Condo Sellers” (http://www.miamicondoinvestments.com/2007/07/26/advice-to-miami-condo-sellers/) in which I encouraged condo sellers to be priced very aggressively if they wanted to sell their condos before prices fell further. I have to disagree with you though on your prediction for another 70% drop. Investors will step up to the plate long before that because the break-even cash flow scenario will be in play. That’s what everyone is waiting for and I don’t think we’re… Read more »
Anonymous
shwin
8 years 2 months ago
I have gained a tremendous amount of good information on this site. Thanks to all the contributors. Here’s an article from CNN that I found interesting: http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/30/real_estate/vulture_investors_take_flight/ Perhaps even more interesting… I’ve found a way to live in relative harmony at home with my parents and saving some $$ while I continue to study at UM Jackson. I’ve been looking out for some rental bargains and am planning to move Sept 1. Some of the popular rental properties previously mentioned on this site include the Plaza and Quantum. Any other places I ought to take a look at. thanks again… Read more »
Anonymous
Renter Tom
8 years 2 months ago
I have been watching a boutique condo building built about 2 decades ago. Several owners were trying to sell at X, then 75% of X, 55% of X, and now one unit is 27% of X listed right now (granted it is the lowest floor with the least desirable view in the building, but not a bad view, and was foreclosed upon being approved at that price by Countrywide….they or whoever is the actual mortgage holder are taking a hit..hoping to get 60 cents on the dollar). The seller for X was obviously wishful, but it was listed on the… Read more »
Anonymous
Renter Tom
8 years 2 months ago

Another thing I had seen…Trump Tower Tampa developer filed for bankruptcy. Makes one wonder about the Trump Towers in Sunny Isles Beach where Trump lent his name to too….

Anonymous
AJ
8 years 2 months ago

Thanks to all who chipped in to clarify. Especially to BFG for an indepth perspective.

A freind of mine from Quantum asked me this question:

“Can I stop paying the maintenance dues because the developer is charging the dues and the HOA has not yet formed? What can the developer do?”

I advised him against any such thing. I presume, even if the HOA is not formed, the maintenance dues charged by the developer has the same sanctity as a HOA dues (?)

Anonymous
8 years 2 months ago
I love this chart: http://mysite.verizon.net/vodkajim/housingbubble/miami.html Just puts in perspective how ridiculous this market was and is. Pretty tough to tell where the bottom of the falling knife is going to be from looking at the chart. My 2c is that there is another leg down, but not in the low or middle ends of the housing market. The next phase will be in the higher end of the housing market. ie. 500K+. You see it in the toys. Boat prices drop then small yachts then middle sized yachts. Normal cars start faltering first and just recently the Ferrari F430’s. I… Read more »
Anonymous
The Ace
8 years 2 months ago

The smart monies gunna party like it’s 1999

Anonymous
Un-Related
8 years 2 months ago

Renter Tom said: “Makes one wonder about the Trump Towers in Sunny Isles Beach where Trump lent his name to too….”

Several weeks ago, there was Miami Herald article mentiong some litigation against Related and the Dezer Brothers (the other “partners”). Sorry, I don’t recall the specifics but it mentioned the promised use of the “Trump brand”.

I guess if Trump takes a fade on the deal, it can officially rervert back to what the project really always was, to quote their ads, “Another Related Development”. Whoopee, Gourge, another town, another condo glut!

Anonymous
movin' metro
8 years 2 months ago

perhaps their slogan can become, “Yet Another Related Development.”

Anonymous
Renter Tom
8 years 2 months ago

Or they should say “A Related Development, but unrelated to Trump”. I guess the Donald doesn’t hesitate to divorce. I think Trump has indicated he may not renew the name license after construction is completed and turned over to the HOA, whatever that contract says… Will be interesting.

Anonymous
Renter Tom
8 years 2 months ago

BTW JL, that graph would indicate we are 60% through the price declines in real dollar terms…back to 2004 real dollar pricing…will we get back to 2001? Or will it fall even further? Investment rule: things always return to the mean….

Anonymous
8 years 2 months ago
While Chris @ housingfear might be a bit extreme (just a bit?!?!) a return to 2001 pricing is not out of the range of realistic possibilities….back to 1999 pricing in REAL dollar terms is also possible for south Florida. Glad I am renting! __________________________________ Prices were 150 a sq foot in 1999/2001 so I don’t know how I am being extreme. We are both predicting the same thing. I guess people forget what real estate cost in Miami in 1999/2001. a 70% drop from 400 a sq foot brings the price down 120 a sqaure foot. I know that sounds… Read more »
Anonymous
Renter Tom
8 years 2 months ago

I thought you had said an ADDITIONAL 70% drop from today’s pricing???

Anonymous
AJ
8 years 2 months ago
Ace and Chris (And MO if you are still around!), I can only presume 2 things about you guys for constantly wishing $125 (now you changed the tune to $150)/SF 1. Either you are anarchists, you hate the governments, the world and established order and wish chaos and anarchy to rule the roost for no apparent reason other than you are jaded or confused or 2. You want such a dramatic roll back of prices, so that you can finally afford to buy a condo that you guys never cared to buy 5-10 years ago by the way of saving… Read more »
Anonymous
AJ
8 years 2 months ago
Hi JL, as per the chart, 2001 inflation adjusted prices are the same as 1989 prices. Is the inflation – the only parameter in measuring the housing price curve? Are there no other variables? It is convenient and easy just to compare the inflation, but there are so many other forces at play. Some points to ponder: 1. In 1989 the American population was : 232 Million In 1998 it is 255 Million in 2008 it is between 305 to 310 Million (Extrapolated from the 2005 figure of 300 Million). Prices rolling back to 99 or 89 levels( Which by… Read more »
Anonymous
AJ
8 years 2 months ago

Correction:

1. US population in 1989 is 246 Million
2. US pop in 1998 is 270 Million

Anonymous
Melt Down and Evaporation of Wealth
8 years 2 months ago
I guess no one is factoring in the melt down of the stock market and evaporation of wealth. Wealth that has evaporated in blue chip stocks which has not happened since the great depression. The next great debacle will be the credit card crisis and the banks not being able to collect of credit card debt, throw in upside down car loans on trucks and Suv’s that no one will buy at any price. What you have is the perfect storm. You would have to a bit daff to buy right now, or have very deep pockets to hold on… Read more »
Anonymous
8 years 2 months ago

Regarding the chart:
http://mysite.verizon.net/vodkajim/housingbubble/miami.html

I wouldn’t try to argue the merits of any specific pricepoint for a bottom from looking at the chart. What I would say is it would be pretty odd for that slope to go flat in just another year.

I’m pegging another 2-3 years before you get something looking like a bottom and the brunt of the losses over the next 2-3 years will be skewed to the higher end stuff.

Anonymous
8 years 2 months ago
AJ Wishing for 2001 prices is a good thing for the economy not a bad thing. Yes, Greedy speculators like yourself will take a bath because you bought in at the top of the market hoping to sell your unit to a greater fool for more money. However, the result of this epic price crash back to 2001 levels will mean that end users will actually be able to buy the units again for a price that is in line with the median income in the area and that will be a good thing for the economy. Paying 50% –… Read more »
Anonymous
waiting game
8 years 2 months ago

Yes …I too believe that we will see $150-$175 a sq. foot very soon.Who would have believed $5.00 a gallon gas???It’s CUMMIN along with down to earth Miamo condo price’s.Anyone agree with that???

Anonymous
AJ
8 years 2 months ago
Chris, I never denied the fact that affordable housing is good for the economy. In fact it is essential. Yes, teachers and fire fighters can still pay 30-50% of their incomes and live in Miami. No one is expecting them to be living in Marina Blue or 50 Biscayne. These buildings were never built for middle class people in the first place. There is plenty of affordable housing from Kendall to Doral and in between. So if you are expecting an electrician or plumber to get into a 1/1 or 2/2 in Icon Brickell, it is not going to happen.… Read more »
Anonymous
8 years 2 months ago

Amen to that!

I just finished the latest condo closing rate update. I should have it up either tomorrow night or the next day.

Anonymous
Visionary
8 years 2 months ago

AJ

It might be of interest for you.
In Quantum they installed allover mirrors in the garage !

Anonymous
DLJ
8 years 2 months ago
AJ, Not only did they start installing mirrors, but we took your advice and formed our own “association” by distributing flyers under the doors as management wasn’t very cooperative to say the least. You can’t imagine how many people turned up. Suffice it to say, we are taking matters into our own hands and as we speak there are a lot of Quantum owners working very hard to make Quantum a great place to live. We met on the 1st of july and we will be meeting on the 15th again. We had over 50 homeowners show up; we created… Read more »
Anonymous
gables
8 years 2 months ago
AJ, I am wishing for dirt cheap condo prices because i am greedy for a good price on a long term deal. last time i checked, nobody who was contributing to the unchecked increase in prices was worried about long term stability-it was all about how much can i make flipping this unit to the next sucker. these people have cost me because rents suddenly increased to match the mortgage, taxes etc that were driven up by speculators. i had to pay for those through rent, and could not even take a tax deduction on them. i have deliberately saved… Read more »
Anonymous
AJ
8 years 2 months ago
Hi DLJ, I am so happy that you guys have formed a group to make your building a great place. Congratulations and good luck. I have left 1800 and came back to NYC but I hear that the laundry list we gave to the developer is being worked on seriously and quite a few jobs have been tackled from that list. I think what is good for 18 is good for Q and Vice Versa as they are more or less, twin buildings joined at the hip with a lot of influence on each other. Looking forward to working with… Read more »
Anonymous
AJ
8 years 2 months ago
Gables, I completely understand. What I don’t agree is the likes of Chris who say that the greed of speculators who buy low to sell high is some how unacceptable but the greed of his ilk who will buy low from a desperate person is somehow kosher. When a speculator is selling high, the willing person who is buying is not a victim. When Chris is waiting to buy low from someone who is down and out or taking advantage of the situation and squeezing evermore concessions from a person who is moving out of state, job loss or any… Read more »
Anonymous
Mark
8 years 2 months ago

Lucas, what do you mean by “break-even cash flow scenario”?

Anonymous
gables
8 years 2 months ago
AJ, I certainly appreciate your thoughts and actually tend to agree with you for the most part. You are absolutely correct about being careful what you wish for as the outcome could be terrible. I just dont think that will occur. Most of the rest of the country could revert to 2001 prices without significant losses to those holding the property. Most of these properties did not experience a significant bubble and thus the loss, while real, would not be life altering. The price appreciation in places like Miami,Vegas and LA were mind boggling and extremely unhealthy. These are the… Read more »
Anonymous
Shell Smith
8 years 2 months ago

I have found great information on Miami homes for sale using this website that has a google maps/mls mash-up and also lets you search specific areas. I actually was able to find more information on this listing, which you provided some great stats for. Thanks for doing all that work! It helps a lot to see some hard numbers.

Anonymous
AJ
8 years 2 months ago
Hi Gables, I agree with you on all except the line “thus the loss, while real, would not be life altering”. Most home owners in this country refied or cashed out some of the gains. I am not too sympathetic towards those who cashed out the ugly gains of 04-06 (I call it the blood money), but a vast majority have taken out equity and the gains built up until 2003 for college, home improvement, a wedding or even everyday living. Now millions of those home owners will have an upside down home (worth less than the mortgage) if prices… Read more »
Anonymous
Bender
8 years 2 months ago
Expecting to buy units at 2001 prices isn’t exactly “greed”. It’s just good sense. A lot of people were priced out of affordable housing for the past few years, and yes, we’re quite happy to see people suffering; because the people who are suffering are (for the most part) carpetbaggers and opportunists who don’t live here and have denied us a realistic chance at home ownership the past 4 years. Yes, Brickell units aren’t exactly built for people living on teachers’ salaries, but Midtown shouldn’t exactly be out of a teacher’s reach, either. I make $70K/year (which, from my understanding… Read more »
Anonymous
moretroops
8 years 2 months ago
AJ, You set up a false choice: boarded up businesses and anarchy (!) one one hand, and luxury living at $300/sq. ft. on the other. I reject those choices. There is a middle ground: affordable housing for the middle class, with condo investors (a wholly new species anyway) and conspicuous-overconsumers as casualties. In other words, if affordable housing means that ” life in America will not look like the way [I] remember,” then so be it. I don’t remember life in America being particularly great the past few years anyway. Materialism, debt spending, and criminal incuriosity sucks. But that’s just… Read more »
Anonymous
AJ
8 years 2 months ago
Bender, There are quite a few misconceptions and wrong finger pointing in your diatribe. 1. Carpet baggers and opportunists who do not live here: In fact for every one investor/speculator that I know of from say Chicago, New York or Toronto, I know of two who actually are either Miamians or Long Term residents of Miami! 2.$500-$600 maintenace fees: Give me your $275 K, I will pocket $50K and with the rest I will buy you a beautiful single family home in a very good neighborhood. You dont have to pay a penny in maintenance . If condo living is… Read more »
Anonymous
AJ
8 years 2 months ago
Moretroops, Yes, I am all for a middle ground. You said it, not me. If the prices started rising slowly in 2000 and rapidly in 2004 and peaked in 2006, I am very right in calling for a middle ground of 2003. 2001 or 1999 is not middle. Yes, I 100% agree with the ugly American attitudes of Debt spending and materialism. But what has happened has happened. I think the ugly American is learning a bit. Americans who constitute 20% of the World population using 80% of its resources are now getting the taste of their own medicine. When… Read more »
Anonymous
AJ
8 years 2 months ago
Bender, You actually got me thinking. A few years ago, when I was making 40K/year, I bought my first co-op in New York. 2 years later, when I changed my job and my salary went up to 60K/year, I bought a vacation home in Miami. I do not have a inheritance from a rich dad either. How is it that I can do things with my limited income when you guys cannot buy a simple condo all these years with a pretty decent income? OK. Let us see. If you let me, I will get you into a 1 BR… Read more »
Anonymous
Bender
8 years 2 months ago
AJ, notice I said carpetbaggers AND opportunists. I am aware that there were South Floridians that also got burned, and what I said goes double for them. It didn’t take too much common sense for someone down here to say to themselves, “Hey, if people down here can’t afford to live here at these prices, then who’s going to buy this condo off of me?” Sure, I could pay $200K and get a very nice house in Homestead…if I want to waste 3 hours/day out of my life in traffic. For that matter, I could probably get a good deal… Read more »
Anonymous
Bender
8 years 2 months ago
AJ, do you even believe what you’re writing? Why on Earth would I, or anyone, lay out $1700/month for a 1-bed place? Rental rates aren’t even close to that. I’m living comfortably in a 1 BR right now for $950/month. So, I’m spending an extra $800/month for what, exactly? No, thanks, I’ll continue to pocket it. I’m looking to move up to a 2 br/2 ba place, so I can have an extra room for family and friends to stay when they come visit me. I figure an outlay of $1500-$1700/month total, while a significant jump over what I pay… Read more »
Anonymous
AJ
8 years 2 months ago

Bender,
Renters are gladly paying $2200/month for a 2/2 in the 1800. Don’t ask me why, go to the pace park in the evening and ask some of those renters why they are paying so much. They will tell you.

Anonymous
Bender
8 years 2 months ago

And a lot of secretaries drive BMW 3-series cars down here and have zero savings while living with roommates or mommy and daddy. It’s being “Miami Fabulous”. People like that deserve the financial woes that they’re bringing upon themselves, but at the same time, responsible people shouldn’t be made to pay for their extravagance, either. It looks like people are finally waking up, and I say good for them.

Anonymous
Renter Tom
8 years 2 months ago
Bender – You should go to the 826 North Miami Beach Wal-Mart and see what people are buying on foodstamps…then getting into expensive cars to drive off. It is absurd. I don’t know the criteria for qualifying for public assistance but it sure seems like a lot of fraud to me. All the food stamps seem to do for many is free up cash for gold teeth, pedicures, and SUV’s. One way or the other, it always seems the responsible taxpayers end up getting stuck supporting these freeloaders. I don’t want anyone in the U.S. to starve, but for goodness… Read more »
wpDiscuz

For Real Estate
Related Needs And Inquiries

please complete the form below

  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.