The Fate of Prices at Vue at Brickell and The Club at Brickell Bay
August 23, 2007 by Lucas Lechuga
For months I've been writing about the rampant mortgage fraud that has occurred in certain buildings located in Brickell such as Vue at Brickell and The Club at Brickell Bay.
The August Brickell Condo Index revealed that over the last six months Vue at Brickell had closed sales with an average price per square foot of $522.37 while The Club at Brickell Bay sold at an average price per square foot of $723.35. Both averages have been inflated as a result of the mortgage fraud that has occurred in these two buildings. Both figures seem outrageous to me since both are non-waterfront buildings and, by most, would not be considered top buildings in Brickell.
It is inevitable that in upcoming months both figures will come down drastically. Both have a lot of short-sale and foreclosure units that are currently listed. For example, Vue at Brickell currently has 8 condos that are marked as either short-sale or foreclosures. The Club at Brickell Bay currently has only three but I suspect that many more will arise in upcoming months.
One bank-owned property at Vue at Brickell is listed at $325 per square foot while another is listed at $343 per square foot. These represent an almost $200 per square foot reduction compared to what has sold at Vue at Brickell over the last six months. That is a difference of over 35 percent. Keep in mind also that these are the list prices. They will ultimately sell for less. These transactions will bring the averages down to a more realistic figure. Anyone who purchased a condo in Vue at Brickell about a year ago won't be able to refinance for many, many years. This will lead to more foreclosures which will bring down the average even more.
The best price per square foot currently offered of the foreclosure or short-sale units at The Club at Brickell Bay is $471. That is a difference of $252 per square foot when compared to what has sold in the past six months, or a little over 34 percent. I feel that there is a lot more room for this figure to drop. There are just too many other brand new non-waterfront units that will be coming onto the market in Brickell within the next 12 months that offer much better prices than those offered by some of the existing Brickell condo buildings that were riddled with mortgage fraud.
My prediction is that a year from now Vue at Brickell will have an average price per square foot of around $325 for units sold over the preceding six months while this figure for The Club at Brickell Bay will be around $375. Of course, this is just an average, so some will sell for less while some will sell for more. I don't think this will be the bottom though for condos at The Club at Brickell Bay. They will likely plateau around $350 per square foot. The latest foreclosure and short-sale listings shed new light as to the fate of prices at Vue at Brickell and The Club at Brickell Bay.
I feel that other non-waterfront condo developments in Brickell are in jeopardy as well. A lot of people are talking about the thousands of new units that will be coming onto the market in Brickell within the next couple of years but many fail to mention that only two, Epic and Icon Brickell, are bayfront. The rest are either riverfront or non-waterfront buildings. The bayfront buildings will have a slight downward adjustment in prices but will fare well overall. Once those two developments are completed there will only be one bayfront parcel of land left for development.
What do you think will happen with rent prices at these buildings? Right now it seems that you can’t find a one bedroom in Brickell for less than 1400. I find this a bit steep in relation to what people make. With all the new buildings coming online, do you think it will force rents to drop?
Lucas,
Again – terrific site. you really provide actionable data and great analysis. can you please share your thought process on your PSF predictions? Why is $325- $350 your magic number?
Do you have any insight into current all in PSF construction costs at the buildings going up nearby? I’d think that might be a natural floor on prices.
I’ve seen rental prices come down about 10% in Brickell within the last 12 months. There is huge demand right now to rent but there are so many new units competing with each other which is driving down rental prices. I think we’ll see one bedrooms in Brickell rent for less than $1,400 per month.
Mark,
The $325-$350 per square foot are just a prediction based on the list prices of these foreclosure and short-sale units as well as the impact that the new units will have on the market within the next year.
From what I’ve heard from a few developers, you can’t build for less than $350 per square foot since construction costs are so high. It may not necessarily represent the floor for prices though.