New Miami Condos – Closing Rates for February 2009

February 8, 2009 by Lucas Lechuga

It’s been a few months since my last Miami condo closing rate update. The percentage of closed units for 25 major condo developments are provided below, starting with the first development to begin closings. Four condo developments have been added: Icon Brickell, Everglades on the Bay, Infinity at Brickell and Epic.  You’ll find these towards the bottom of this post.

Miami Condo Closing Rates - February 2009

Below, you will find the date that each condo development began closings followed by the number of closed units in each condo development:

With the exception of Onyx on the Bay and 50 Biscayne, the first group above has remained unchanged.  Onyx on the Bay was able to close one additional condo while 50 Biscayne was able to close two.

Miami Condo Closing Rates - February 2009

Quantum on the Bay and Plaza on Brickell once again were able to show a decent improvement in their closing rate.  Quantum on the Bay closed an additional 14 condos while Plaza on Brickell was able to close 21.  1800 Club did not have any new closings but I did find another deed that had been recorded twice.  This is the reason why the total number of closed condos in this update is one less than the total stated in the December 2008 post for 1800 Club.  It needs just 7 more closed condos to hit the all-important 70 percent mark.

Miami Condo Closing Rates - February 2009

As a result of the 60-unit bulk sale, Marina Blue showed the most improvement of the above five condo developments since the last update.  I did, however, find re-recorded deeds for Marina Blue that I had previously missed.  The developer of Marina Blue has now closed around 82% of the total number of units.

Miami Condo Closing Rates - February 2009

In my opinion, the five condo developments above are all likely candidates for some sort of bulk deal taking place in the future.  Met 1 was able to close 7 additional units, Asia 2, 900 Biscayne Bay 13, 500 Brickell 17 and Axis 8.  As a result of the new Fannie Mae guidelines, it is not likely that we’ll see significant improvement in any of the condo developments that haven’t thus far reached the 70 percent mark.

Miami Condo Closing Rates - February 2009

Above, you’ll find the four newly added condo developments which began closings within the past 3 months.  Timing could not have been worse for these four.  They’re going to need to find a plethora of cash buyers who are willing to pay dated prices.  Ivy at Riverfront, which began closings back in June 2008, was able to close 14 additional condos since the December 2008 update.

The bright side is that the condo construction cranes of Miami are gone.  The cranes that remain are for commercial developments.  Marquis and Paramount Bay, which should begin closings within the next 3 months, will be the last of the newly constructed condos to hit the market in Miami.  It does appear, however, that Met 3 has begun to lay its foundation.  Hopefully, the condo market will reach some sort of equilibrium by the time that development has been completed.

Disclaimer: The above closing rate information was derived from public County records. There can be a 2-3 week delay from the time that a closing occurs and the time that the closing is recorded.  The information above is not deemed 100 percent accurate as a result of delays in the recording of deeds and deeds being re-recorded.

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89 Comments on "New Miami Condos – Closing Rates for February 2009"


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Anonymous
AJ
7 years 7 months ago
They made available 10 years supply (2003-2013) in 5 years (2003-2008). So only 11,000 flats in the greater downtown area out of a total of 22,000 should have been sufficient to satisfy the end users and 2nd home seekers. The excess 11,000 are now being held by Developers, Investors and Bulk Buyers. If half of these 11,000 flats get picked up by the bulk buyers, then the rest will belong to the investors. That may bring some sort of relief or equilibrium to the market. But the question is are there enough bulk buyers to absorb 5,500 units? If no… Read more »
Anonymous
Joe
7 years 7 months ago

very impressive for the Plaza on Brickell.
Many units are leased by developer also. I heard that the first tower is sold.
The second one has few more units left. They opened later.
Because of the superb location.
REAL ESTATE RULE: location, location, location

Anonymous
H2O
7 years 7 months ago

Is AJ on record calling the bottom of the market in 2013? Seems like a big departure from previous posts.

Anonymous
Renter Tom
7 years 7 months ago

AJ said: “They can resell after 2013 for double their investment”

– I really needed a good laugh this morning! :-) Thanks for the certainty AJ….gotta love the ignorant wishing. You really ought to buy more……instead of selling now. Put your money where your mouth is.

Anonymous
Muir
7 years 7 months ago

RT,
But really, at this point if he hasn’t sold, does it really matter?
Just saying, let’s say for some unimaginable reason you owned outright one of these units today, Monday, Feb 9th 2009.
What would you do?
Seems at this point if you own it outright you may as well hang on to it.
If it’s mortgaged then it’s tricky, feed the alligator?

Anonymous
Renter Tom
7 years 7 months ago

Muir – Why hold onto the dead dog? If you lived there then it may be a different story since there are additional factors to consider.

Anonymous
Muir
7 years 7 months ago

You may be right, I’m not sure.

Anonymous
Raffi
7 years 7 months ago
I don’t think that the argument of fully absorbing units has much relevance. Once most of these buildings have sold 90% of the units (whenever that may be) then we will be in good shape. the other 10% doesnt really matter because you always have left over supply. if we reach the 90% mark then that means that the economy has turned back around, confidence is back, and a bottom will have been reached. all we really want is a true bottom so that we can being to have a normal business cycle. trying to figure out when we will… Read more »
Anonymous
Un-Related
7 years 7 months ago
Hey AZ88 (if you are still around): No commentary, just the numbers! I would not want to further disparage your sacred white cows at Related, so enjoy…. December 2008: 500 Brickell – May 14, 2008 – (196) 30.96% February 2009: 500 Brickell – May 14, 2008 – (213) 33.69% 70% of 615 units = 450 units. 237 more closings and 500 Brickell will be at 70%!!! At 8 closings per month, they should get there in 24 yrs. and 8 mos. October 2033! Just in time to demolish it for a new structure! To their credit, 500 Brickell is doing… Read more »
Anonymous
Renter Tom
7 years 7 months ago

Raffi – I don’t doubt inflation will come in the mid-term to long-term as a consequence of bad federal government policy, but I see it more as weak dollar then through economic expansion and demand caused inflation. There is a difference and that affects whether these condos get absorbed by end users or not. We are a long long long way from end users making up the majority of owners in many of these projects. The worst is yet to come I’m afraid.

Anonymous
Raffi
7 years 7 months ago
RT, I definetly agree that its going to get worse this year (by how much is anyones guess). where i disagree is if end users buy the properties or not. If someone buys to live in it or buys to keep as a vacation home it really doesn’t make a difference. as long as they are buying for the long term and not to flip or short term gain. those days are obviously long gone. How the dollar is still strong is amazing to me, there is no fundamental reason to why it should be. I guess its like the… Read more »
Anonymous
Joe
7 years 7 months ago

Un-Related: well you compare 500 brickell with other buildings. You do the same mistake developers did, they built and hoped that everybody will make money.
Just few did.

500 brickell sucks. has building in the front plus location is horrible.
no wonder why is doing so bad.

see KIA cars are cheap but i would never drive one.
same is with condos. some people will prefer one building and leave other empty.

some building will just do fine, some will be disaster. thats the way the life is

Anonymous
gerardo
7 years 7 months ago

How much per unit are these going for? I am so confused.

Anonymous
Bmw m3
7 years 7 months ago

Lucas, you forgot 100% of the units in Jade have sold. Can you post that closing rate? We all know that building stabilized.

Anonymous
Bmw m3
7 years 7 months ago

Florida land boom ended 1926. I wonder what what the AJ of 1929 was saying. Just hold on until 1933….

Anonymous
7 years 7 months ago
Anonymous
Richard
7 years 7 months ago

Rather surprised to see so many closed at 900 Biscayne since they were pretty high priced in pre-construction. Think if I had several hundred units for sale in a building I would have signs and banners but I don’t see any in of these buidings.

Anonymous
7 years 7 months ago

some buildings are doing great but some are about to go under

Anonymous
gables
7 years 7 months ago

i have been impressed with the closings at Plaza. I do like the building and location. But closing rate is not of highest importance to me. What will be the delinquency and foreclosure rate on the building in another year? That will describe the true value of the site.

Anonymous
Joe
7 years 7 months ago

gables: i live in plaza. most of people in the building are wealthy. many wealthy people from south america, northern USA and europe bought a vacation homes. they bought in cash.
i am serious not so many average guys here. and it is easy to rent it out, they have a waiting list for rentals.

Anonymous
Wild Bill
7 years 7 months ago

Do a public records search for buildings like Plaza on Brickell. Some of the liens are are for assessments of a few hundred dollars. Makes you wonder how many liens will be placed when they have to do major repairs. How do these people not have the ability to pay a few hundred dollars? Scary.

Anonymous
Renter Tom
7 years 7 months ago

Raffi – I would consider vacation home buyers as “end users”. My concern is that non-end users are simply going to put the units back on the market in the near term so selling to non-end users doesn’t really affect absorption.

Anonymous
7 years 7 months ago
Luca, Thank you very much for this very interesting information. Something that always surprise me as a real estate broker is how easy it is to become an expert on the Internet. You cannot mix and match the buildings nor the locations. You have some buildings who were poorly built, or built in a not so nice location. They will just become affordable housing and we badly need that. That will be good for the city. Some other are nicely built in nice locations and I bet that many people will love to live there later. If you witness the… Read more »
Anonymous
AJ
7 years 7 months ago
I don’t understand why Raffi, RT, Gables say that absorption of the excess inventory by end users does not make a difference. It will take the inventory off the market for a quick stabilization and quicker reaching of the bottom. H2o, I did not predict bottom in 2013. In the absense of bulk buyers, yes, ofcourse, it will take that long. But if the bulk buyers pick up at least half the excess inventory (to the tune of say 5,500 flats) by the end of this year or mid next year, and the remaining half would remain with individual investors… Read more »
Anonymous
fairkim
7 years 7 months ago

RE: Lucas’ comment on Wind suit:

Lucas, as jcrimes and a few others ably pointed out, suits like this will go nowhere. Please update us on the case, but even a HLS-YLS double-team will not get much mileage on this one — and as I mentioned earlier, even if Plaintiff’s win the suit, how do they expect to collect? The entity they are suing don’t have the money…

Anonymous
moretroops
7 years 7 months ago

fairkim — they expect their deposits back. Deposits are typically held in escrow.

The “economy sucks” tactic is not going to get these people out of their contracts. Not only is the legal argument misplaced (the economy is not an “Act of God” rendering performance impossible), it will strike the courts as grossly unfair. Not to mention setting a terrible precedent.

I predict that even if these opportunists win at the trial court level (unlikely), the appellate court will reverse. What an awful lawsuit.

Anonymous
Muir
7 years 7 months ago

Seems the posts just miss the big picture.
You are all talking about the concrete barriers that will stop the German tanks (1939) meanwhile the faint sound you hear is the Luftwaffe overhead.
These condos are not sold in a vacuum.
Just exactly how are you going to sell these things if we end up in a depression?
Unlikely? Well, how about ‘a prolonged deep recession?’
How unlikely is that?
Because I put the last at about close to 100%

Anonymous
AZ88
7 years 7 months ago
Un-Related, Yes, I did take a look at the numbers. What you fail to mention is that 500 Brickell had the second HIGHEST number of units closed (excluding the Marina Blue bulk sale) of all the new condos listed since the last update. Rooting for the failure of a building and its developer says a lot about you…. The only one being disparaged is yourself. No commentary, just the numbers! I would not want to further disparage your sacred white cows at Related, so enjoy…. December 2008: 500 Brickell – May 14, 2008 – (196) 30.96% February 2009: 500 Brickell… Read more »
Anonymous
AZ88
7 years 7 months ago

Un-Related,

Yes, I did take a look at the numbers. What you fail to mention is that 500 Brickell had the second HIGHEST number of units closed (excluding the Marina Blue bulk sale) of all the new condos listed since the last update.

Rooting for the failure of a building and its developer says a lot about you…. The only one being disparaged is yourself.

Anonymous
H2O
7 years 7 months ago
FD-Miami-Real-Estate, You have a remarkable talent for writing entire paragraphs that don’t actually say anything. You should get into politics. “You cannot mix and match the buildings nor the locations.” Hmmm. Insightful…. “You have some buildings who were poorly built, or built in a not so nice location. They will just become affordable housing and we badly need that. That will be good for the city.” Well, that’s certainly one take on it… “I just know that you should focus on buildings with intrinsic qualities and nice floor plans and you should do just good in the long term. You… Read more »
Anonymous
Mark
7 years 7 months ago

Joe — I am considering renting at Plaza. Do you have any complaints about the building? How is the elevator in the morning? Any issues with the garage, internet, hot water, or anything like that which wouldn’t be readily apparent on a tour? Thanks!

Anonymous
gables
7 years 7 months ago
AJ, i never intended to say that absorption by end users will have not effect-maybe just a miscommunication. end users are required to salvage the condo market-not investors, speculators and renters. a major problem will arise, however, if end users are unable to acquire financing through the fannie (and similar) programs. note investors are not eligible for fannie anyway. without financing available, the average good credit end user will not be able to buy a unit unless it crashes in value. we need end users, like myself, more than ever. but the forces are aligning against poplulating miami condos with… Read more »
Anonymous
Raffi
7 years 7 months ago

AJ- I said “full absorption” doesn’t matter and that once we reach a 90% level that will indicate we are in a healthy market.

FD- what the hell are you talking about? worst written paragraph I have ever read. looks more like you wanted to promote your website.

Anonymous
Renter Tom
7 years 7 months ago

AJ – I never said what you said I said. Why do you like to put words in people’s mouths? End users are those people who don’t plan on just putting the unit back on the market in the nearer term.

Anonymous
Wild Bill
7 years 7 months ago

Miami and Miami Beach areas have a huge amount of owners who are going to try to unload their units as the economy gets better. I don’t know if these people have the money to survive their taxes or special assessments. These were short term flips that turned into rental units which are now long term investments.

The second wave of mortgage resets isn’t going to hit until 2012. Isn’t this correct?

Anonymous
GN
7 years 7 months ago

Hi Guys- This is off topic, I’m considering renting at Aventura Marina and was wondering if anyone can give me some insights on the building. Any issues with noise level etc..Thanks

Anonymous
Marky Mark
7 years 7 months ago

According to Moody’s…..Miami’s housing will not bottom until early 2011!!!!!

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/breaking-news/story/897041.html

Anonymous
jcrimes
7 years 7 months ago

GN
I have an ex-girlfriend who now lives there. I don’t particularly like her. I’d be fearful of whatever demonic effect she may have on the building.

Anonymous
Raffi
7 years 7 months ago

I wouldn’t really take into account anything the morons at Moody’s have to say. we all saw how well their AAA rated investments fared.

Anonymous
Juan
7 years 7 months ago

I heard that there was a bulk sale at Quantum and 900. Can anyone confirm this?

Anonymous
Hugo P
7 years 7 months ago

Moody’s or not, anyone who thinks that the market will rebound in 2009 is completely wrong. For those of you who still not believe this is the case (like AJ), please visit: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=4590 which has 5 articles from 5 great economists.

We keep sliding and we have not yet seen the real impact of foreclosures and unemployment. Hold on… worse is definitely to come.

Anonymous
7 years 7 months ago

Lucas, please give us more details about the closings in Sunny Isles Beach.

Anonymous
7 years 7 months ago

What was Jorge Perez thinking when he got into the Icon Brickell deal???

He is was probably thinking that the taxpayers where going to foot the bill while he takes the profits….LOL….long live the bail out!!!

Anonymous
Probably too Cynical
7 years 7 months ago
Mark: the good on Plaza on Brickell: excellent building management, security, and door people. professional and first rate. attentive. not even a pizza man will get by without having to call up. (I consider this a plus.) this does not apply to the valet parkers, whom I recommend you never, ever use. I’ve seen too many of them driving like jackasses. Location is pretty awesome, too. the bad: walls are thin. pray you have quiet neighbors. the entrance to the garage is criminally-poorly designed. backs up with just a few cars trying to get in or out, and you need… Read more »
Anonymous
7 years 7 months ago

Mark:

Stay off big buildings, they are nothing but trouble. Check out west brickell where you have 3 new small buildings.

Anonymous
Un-Related
7 years 7 months ago
Lucas, FYI – Reference your post about having lunch with Beck and Lee. http://southflorida.bizjournals.com/southflorida/stories/2009/02/09/daily11.html?ana=e_du_pap “Monday, February 9, 2009, 6:14pm EST | Modified: Tuesday, February 10, 2009, 12:00am Wind condo buyers want out, blame financial crisis South Florida Business Journal – by Paul Brinkmann Add a new reason to the list of tactics being used to get condo buyers out of contracts: the “global financial crisis.” Four condo buyers at Wind by Neo in downtown Miami say they are unable to obtain mortgages, and therefore should be released from contracts. Blanca and Julio Hernandez, Claudia Gomez and Miryam Gregory filed suit… Read more »
Anonymous
AJ
7 years 7 months ago
Tue, Feb 10 02:30 PM Chavon Sutton, Forbes.com Those living in Monte Carlo may enjoy the Côte d’Azur’s beaches, glamorous nightlife and status as a tax haven, but they pay for it. For the second consecutive year, the resort area tops a list of the world’s most expensive housing markets, boasting average prices of $4,420 per square foot. “Monte Carlo is a city of the rich, small and concentrated,” says Matthew Montagu-Pollock, publisher of Globalpropertyguide.com, the online real estate research firm that released the report Monday. “The primary reasons for such high prices are related to a shortage of space… Read more »
Anonymous
Renting at Plaza on Brickell
7 years 7 months ago

Lucas,

Any reason that the last recent sales and rentals information at the Plaza is from September? Lack of information or no movements (MLS rentals/sales) since September?

Thanks!

Anonymous
Julian
7 years 7 months ago

Dream on AJ and do your homework. You can’t get £1000 a sq ft even in prime Chelsea anymore. So 2 years ago.

Anonymous
AJ- Let me break it down for you. There are two types of people who purchase housing. The first type of person is the one who buys housing as shelter to live in, or a second vacation home that they intend to own for many years. The thought of selling the house for a profit does not really enter into the equation. They just hope to have the home keep pace with inflation, provide a place to live. Imagine a woman saying this is my dream home, or an old couple saying this is where I want to retire. These… Read more »
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