Miami Condo Index – Brickell – August 2008

August 22, 2008 by Lucas Lechuga

Brickell skyline

It has been four months since the last installment of the Miami Condo Index for Brickell.  The last update for Brickell condos was provided in April 2008.   The data below was collected on August 18, 2008 from the MLS.  While crunching the numbers earlier today, it quickly became apparent that prices have continued to fall within the past four months and, in some cases, prices have fallen hard.

The Brickell Condo Index now stands at an average price per square foot of $441.84.  This represents a 7.71 percent drop in the average asking prices of the 18 condo developments that comprise the Brickell Condo Index over the past four months, or an annualized loss of 23.13 percent.  You’ll see in the graph towards the bottom of the post that about four condo developments have had significant reductions in their average asking prices within the past four months.

Average price per square foot of Brickell condos currently listed on the MLS:

Brickell Miami condo skyline

The average price of Brickell condos sold over the past six months has dropped 23.49 percent to $313.97 per square foot from April’s average of $410.38.  However, much of this drop is attributed to the fact that Four Seasons Residences, which sells at the highest price per square foot of the 18 condo developments comprising the Brickell Condo Index, has not had one closed sale in the MLS within the past six months and therefore was not included in this month’s average.  The average would have dropped around 14.37 percent had Four Seasons Residences been included using its April average.  That would still have represented an annualized drop in the average sales prices of about 43 percent!!!

Average price per square foot of Brickell condos sold in the MLS within the past six months:

  • Atlantis – 2025 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $241.89
  • Brickell on the River – 31 SE 5 St | 33131 | N/A
  • Bristol Tower – 2127 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $379.26
  • Emerald at Brickell – 218 SE 14 St | 33131 | $240.51
  • Four Seasons Residences – 1425 Brickell Ave | 33131 | N/A
  • Imperial at Brickell – 1627 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $316.83
  • Jade – 1331 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $447.72
  • Latitude on the River – 185 SW 7 St | 33130 | $323.74
  • Neo Vertika – 690 SW 1 Ct | 33130 | $264.58
  • One Miami – 325 & 335 S Biscayne Blvd | 33131 | $316.15
  • Santa Maria – 1643 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $625.05
  • Skyline on Brickell – 2101 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $296.45
  • Solaris at Brickell – 186 SE 12 Ter | 33131 | N/A
  • The Club at Brickell Bay – 1200 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $224.18
  • The Mark on Brickell – 1155 Brickell Bay Dr | 33131 | $311.29
  • The Palace – 1541 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $240.85
  • Villa Regina – 1581 Brickell Ave | 33129 | $292.44
  • Vue at Brickell – 1250 S Miami Ave | 33131 | $188.62

Below you will find some additional statistics:

Brickell Condo Index August 2008

As in the past, the first column to the right of each condo development’s name is the difference in the average sales price and list price for this month, expressed as a percentage. An “N/A” is found next to Brickell on the River, Four Seasons Residences and Solaris at Brickell since this percentage could not be computed as each building failed to have a closed sale within the past six months through the MLS, and thus did not have an average price per square foot for condos sold.  A high percentage indicates that there is a large discrepancy between the average asking price for condos currently on the market and what has actually sold within the past six months.

The second column is the number of active listings in each condo development currently in the MLS. The third column shows the percentage that these listings represent over the total number of condo units in each development. The cells highlighted in green reveal those condo developments that have active listings that represent less than 10 percent of the the overall units in the building. To me, this is one indication of a sound condo development. Bristol Tower, Four Seasons Residences, Imperial at Brickell, Santa Maria, The Palace and Villa Regina are the condo buildings highlighted in green.  All, with the exception of Four Seasons Residences, were built prior to 2000 and none were targets for wild speculation during the last real estate boom.  The ones highlighted in red reveal those condo developments that have active listings that represent over 20 percent of the overall units in the building. There’s definitely underlying risk in buying in these condo developments and I’d only advise buying in one of these if the price justifies the risk. Jade, Solaris at Brickell and Vue at Brickell are the condo developments highlighted in red.  Each was built in 2004 or after and victimized by speculation and rampant mortgage fraud.  Prices in each have fallen like a ton of bricks within the past year.  The condo developments with active listings less than 10 percent are considered safe, in my opinion, and anything in the 10-15 percent range is considered normal, even in a healthy market.

The fourth column shows the number of pending sales while the fifth column displays the number of closed sales within the past six months. There are a total of 79 total pending sales in the 18 condo buildings represented in the Brickell Condo Index. In April, there were a total of 58 pending sales at the time. The Club at Brickell Bay, Vue at Brickell and Jade each have pending sales in the double digits. The same goes for closed sales within the past six months in each of these condo developments.  In April, there were a total of 64 closed sales within the past six months.  This figure has almost doubled since April with a total of 123 closed sales within the past six months. With 25 closed sales within the past six months and 25 pending sales in the pipeline at The Club at Brickell, I question myself whether some sort of stability is finally being reached.  Again, the 25 closed sales had an average price of around $224 per square foot.  If the answer to my questions is no, then where will the dust finally settle?  Of the three condo developments, The Club at Brickell Bay was the only one which has had a reduction in its active listings since April.  That, to me, is progress.  From November 2007 until April 2008, average sales prices at The Club at Brickell Bay fell about 46 percent.  Now since April, we have seen another large drop of about 39 percent in its average sales price.  By year’s end, can prices at The Club at Brickell Bay hit the $150 per square foot mark that many of the commentors on this blog have mentioned?  A 30 percent drop in sales prices will bring us very, very close to that oft-mentioned number.  A better question is, will the pundits of this blog revise their guidance downward if that figure does become an eventuality in a few condo developments in Brickell?

The sixth column shows the difference in the average list prices from this month’s and April’s, expressed as a percentage. Those highlighted in red reveal those condo developments which had a drop in their average list price while those highlighted in green show those that had an increase. Emerald at Brickell saw asking prices drop a little over 23 percent, Vue at Brickell slightly under 23 percent, Solaris at Brickell around 20 percent, The Club at Brickell Bay about 17.5 percent, Neo Vertika 11.4 percent and Jade 11.25 percent. Only Santa Maria and The Palace experienced average list prices actually rise.

The seventh column reveals the difference in average sales prices from this month’s and April’s, expressed as a percentage. Emerald at Brickell saw the largest drop with a 41.21 percent decline, although only one closed sale was found in the MLS within the past six months to calculate its new average. It has a difference of around 46 percent in its average sales and asking prices.  This is the largest pricing discrepancy amongst the 18 condo developments represented in the Brickell Condo Index.  This just shows me that asking prices at Emerald at Brickell still have a ways to come down before reaching its market clearing value.  The Club at Brickell Bay had its average sales price drop around 39 percent, Skyline on Brickell around 25.5 percent, The Palace about 25 percent and Villa Regina around 25 percent.  Only Latitude on the River and Santa Maria experienced an uptick in average sales prices since the last Brickell Condo Index update.

Brickell Miami condo skyline

This the first month where we saw average sales prices for a Brickell condo building fall below $200 per square foot.  Vue at Brickell is now sitting on an average sales price of around $189 per square foot, calculated from the 17 closed sales in the MLS that it has had within the past six months.  A look at the listings currently available at Vue at Brickell indicates that prices will continue to fall, as over 30 listings have an asking price below the $189 per square foot average.  In fact, four listings are currently asking less than $150 per square foot.  It goes without saying that Vue at Brickell will likely hit the $150 average sales mark before any of the other condo developments in the Brickell Condo Index.

Another insight I made while pondering the figures for this month’s Brickell Condo Index is that Santa Maria is alive and kicking.  It looks healthy despite the slow down in the real estate market.  Its average listing and sales prices have both gone up within the past four months.  It has also had 8 closed sales within the past six months.  That may not seem like a lot but, with only 174 total condos, Santa Maria is not a huge mega-building with 500-plus units like we often see nowadays.  It also has the most realistic asking prices.  The discrepancy in asking and sales prices is 15.81 percent, the lowest amongst the 18 condo developments.  Couple all that with the fact that the currently available listings at Santa Maria only represent around 8 percent of its possible inventory and I’m saying that it’s good to see that there’s still one stand-up condo development amongst the 18.

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191 Comments on "Miami Condo Index – Brickell – August 2008"


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Anonymous
leaner
8 years 1 month ago

Hi Lucas, is there a website one can use to find how many ‘pending sales’ there are in a specific building, how do you get that number?

Anonymous
Cletus
8 years 1 month ago

Dad gummit! Prices are fallin’? But Lucas, you promised me that prices wouldn’t go below $400/sq foot just a few weeks ago!!! Dammit boy!

Anonymous
Visionary
8 years 1 month ago

Cletus,

Why do you use such a coarse language ?
Where did you grow up ?

Whith this behaviour, you only disqualify yourself !

Anonymous
leaner
8 years 1 month ago

He’s trying (unsuccessfully) to be funny. Different alias, same bozo.

Anonymous
Probably too cynical
8 years 1 month ago

how did the Club, with 1/8 of total inventory, account for 1/3 of total sales? this doesn’t make sense to me. (if I could think of anything redeeming about this building, I might understand, but….) were those 25 part of a bulk sale?

Anonymous
Interested
8 years 1 month ago

Cynical,

This is your reason: $224.18 (lowest price/sf)

They are ahead of the market in dropping prices and anyone who drops first gets the sales. They will all eventually follow to around that $225 level and by then Club will be at $150/sf and still make up most of the sales. And so on and so forth.

Anonymous
Hugo P
8 years 1 month ago

Great info Lucas… This is why this blog is so great. Difficult to argue HARD data with great analysis.

I know I’ve said this a lot, but it might be great if you could just add a small column that calls out the number of units listed on MLS so we get an idea of how much is out in the market.

I definitely see prices in Brickell averaging at under $250/sf in the next year.

Thanks

Anonymous
Renter Tom
8 years 1 month ago

I really think there should have been a column that broke down those condos with ping pong and air hockey tables and those without such luxurious amenities. Those without are really skewing the numbers on the downside… :-)

Anonymous
Mark
8 years 1 month ago

Hey Renter Tom, do you think that some of these high end amenities (like valet and conceirge) will be eliminated in a lot of these units to reduce the HOA? Because $700 per month HOA is ridiculous. Even if I can afford it, I would rather park my car myself and save the money. What do you think?

Anonymous
Miami2008
8 years 1 month ago

This may be a better place to post this question:
What do you think about areas like exclusive Brickell Key and Aqua Island? Any thoughts on if values will hold on this type of private gated island communities?
Also, did the 1/1 at Jade listed at 289K sell? What did it go for finally?

Anonymous
8 years 1 month ago

Lucas, where in here can I find average sales price for all the closings in the past few months for the new stuff like Plaza-Quantum-Marina Blue-1800? Thanks in advance.

Anonymous
Renter Tom
8 years 1 month ago
Mark – I agree. The services for silly things is a bit much and when you add them up just not worth it….would rather spend the money on cleaning lady inside my place instead. Valet parking is a pain….tipping someone to pick up your car after waiting for it is a joke (and already paying for it in the dues too)….felt like I have to go ask for permission to use my car! One problem is some of the buildings have tandem parking or other similar things where cars are blocked in to squeeze more cars in. Those spaces would… Read more »
Anonymous
bc
8 years 1 month ago

Is there a place where you can see the association dues/month for each building?

Such an often overlooked expense that really should be considered in price.

Anonymous
Miami2008
8 years 1 month ago

Monthly HOA dues is one reaason I have hesitated to purchase a unit in Miami thus far. Declining market is the main reason of course, but HOA at 700 – 800/month is a deal breaker and not worth it. Maybe some of the amenities could go alacarte…eg, gym membership, etc.

Anonymous
Mark
8 years 1 month ago
Yeah, I actually would hate to have valet. TINSTAFL (There is no such thing as a free lunch). We’re paying for something I avoid in the real world. Also, this is no joke (my brother worked valet for years) – if you have a high end car you’re screwed. Valet drivers will teach other valet drivers how to use stick on your car and they will grind your gears. They can also use your car for joy rides (a la Ferris Bueler). Everytime my bro would get a Ferarri or something like that they would rag it out in the… Read more »
Anonymous
Miami2008
8 years 1 month ago

Mark, I agree about valets. Working in NYC, I have to valet my car all the time. Myself and co-workers have had everything from money, satellite radios to cell phone chargers stolen from our vehicles. I have had damage to my car countless times. Once the valet backed my friends car into a pole and then claimed he dropped it off that way…the car was un-driveable…lol. Valet parking really sucks.

Anonymous
TNT
8 years 1 month ago

LUCAS, Anyone?

Have you done this index analysis for Downtown buildings? Not sure if you had it in a previous post?

Anonymous
Samson
8 years 1 month ago

Great analysis. Wish you would do the same for South Beach.

Anonymous
Mark
8 years 1 month ago

Yeah, Miami2008 I agree. I work out, and I find these gyms to be totally inadequate. NO FREE WEIGHTS, NO BENCH PRESS?! They usually have like 2 treadmills, 2 eliptical machines, bowflex (or similar) device, and a gym matt for doing yoga. I would have to buy a gym membership on top of the condo membership I’m paying….its ridiculous. A la carte won’t work because then the people who are happy with the crappy euqipment would have to pay more and they’d be upset. They want to be subsidized of course. Yet another headache of condo ownership.

Anonymous
Wild Bill
8 years 1 month ago

Some new buildings with ground retail and limited parking spots are required to have valet. It cannot be eliminated. Amenities cannot just be eliminated because they cost the HOA money. A majority vote would have to approve any elimination of amenities. Unlikely that will happen because most these units are still developer owned and not run by a condo board yet. The developers cannot eliminate things or they will get sued.

Anonymous
Angel
8 years 1 month ago
I heard that Ten Museum was valet only. Is this still the case? No way would I live in a building where I am forced to hand over the keys to my baby to some valet guy each and every day. I see this as a huge impediment to the sale of units in bulidings with forced valet. I cannot imagine too many people with the type of income required to live in some of these buildings being remotely comfortable with handing over the keys to their hundred thousand dollar cars to some valet guy on a daily basis, probably… Read more »
Anonymous
Angel
8 years 1 month ago

900 Biscayne, 50 Biscayne and Marina Blue are not forced valet are they?

Sorry to go off topic by the way.

Anonymous
Probably too cynical
8 years 1 month ago

agree on valet parking. I’ve seen at least twice at Plaza cases where someone I suspect (repeat: suspect, cannot prove) was valet were driving a car like a complete jackass. Was told by a guest coming from garage on another occasion that they saw valet parker active very irresponsibly in someone’s car. I’m sure most of them are responsible, but why take a chance? I would NEVER valet park there.

Anonymous
Interested
8 years 1 month ago
Another thing about condo valet. They can learn your schedule….so watch your mileage people. Valet kid one: “old man drops off his Maserati every night at 8.” Valet kid two: “Poor bastard works his ass off every day to pay for his car and home….whatever….” Valet kid one: “Al isn’t working tonight, but he’s got a date with that hot chick he met Saturday….” [Al stops by at 8:15] Al: “Hey guys, gotta car for me? Old man Jones drops his car off after 8 everyday like clockwork….That Maserati would get me laid for sure. Bitch’ll think I’m a baller.”… Read more »
Anonymous
teepee
8 years 1 month ago

I live at the Plaza. Valets do drive like a**holes.

Anonymous
Mark
8 years 1 month ago

Well okay, what if old man jones is going on vacation. That makes it even easier. Better keep a record of your odometer.

Anonymous
bc
8 years 1 month ago

Developers like to build those valet only garages because they require far less spaces and size than a normal garage. Just a tactic to trim costs.

And I agree – they suck and I would never live in a valet only building.

I almost bought into Bentley Bay in south beach until I found out it was valet only.

Anonymous
Shelley
8 years 1 month ago
I used to live in a valet only building and it was the worst. My car had has numerous dings after only 1-year of living there. It’s also very annoying to know that it costs you between 2 and 10 bucks a day (depending on how many times you come and go) just to get your car. I know it’s not mandatory to tip them, but I used to work on tips and could never stiff someone making a living off tips. That really adds up over the course of a year. Furthermore the fact that if you forget something… Read more »
Anonymous
Probably too cynical
8 years 1 month ago

what makes this index even more interesting (and by ‘interesting,’ I do in mean, “frightening”) is that this list of so many buildings with ~20% of their units on the market does not include buildings that are still under construction or only a few months into closings (500 Brickell, Ivy, Wind, Icon, Plaza.) In a rational market, how could such supply be added…

Anonymous
Renter Tom
8 years 1 month ago

Shelley – I could not agree with you more….valet is not a positive “amenity” just a long term cost and a long term pain.

Anonymous
Wild Bill
8 years 1 month ago

Ten Museum Park: Features Clinique La Prairie spa. Because of the spa, lack of spots and insurance reasons I was told it was a valet only building.

Anonymous
Visionary
8 years 1 month ago

Please abort the valet issue !!

Anonymous
Miami2008
8 years 1 month ago

Visionary agreed. Nobody likes valet parking other than the valets themselves!

On the Brickell topic, how do you think Brickell Key values will hold up in comparison to Brickell, Pace Park, Downtown, Park West, or even the beach??? Being there is a limited supply on the island. I do see prices dropping but is any area a safer bet?

Anonymous
RCR
8 years 1 month ago

Get real. It is all going to drop drastically. It has dropped already. One can’t see it because there is no action. Better places with better locations and better views will of course be worth more than inferior units. But ACROSS THE BOARD PRICES ARE DOWN DRASTICALLY AND YOU CAN NOT TELL A THING BY WHAT PEOPLE STILL ASK FOR THEIR PROPERTIES IN THE MLS.

Anonymous
Probably too cynical
8 years 1 month ago

I’ve always had a deep fear of valet car parkers.

I think it goes back to my early childhood, when a valet car parker shot my dad.

Anonymous
8 years 1 month ago
TNT, I haven’t done this sort of analysis for Downtown Miami buildings yet because most are rather new and don’t have many closed sales in the MLS. However, you can find a “Recent Sales” link for each building on its sales page. For example, here is the link for the recent sales at Loft Downtown 2: http://www.miamicondoinvestments.com/sales-data/?building=Loft-Downtown-II My developer is working on a way to add pending sales and also a way so you can view closed sales within the past 3 months, 6 months, etc. You’ll also be able to view closed rental prices as well. It’ll take some… Read more »
Anonymous
dlr
8 years 1 month ago

Sorry to go off topic, but Unrelated mentioned that there was no Miami World Center…..He was wrong. Go to miamiworldcenter.com….This will show you what is planned behind the Biscayne Wall. May be well in the future, but I hear the developers are meeting every week in the Penthouse of 900 Biscayne….this is not a stalled project. BIG, BIG money behind this.

Anonymous
8 years 1 month ago

I’d like to concur with TNT about an index for downtown buildings.

How about splitting things along the lines of the Miami River?

South- Icon Brickell, Jade, etc.

North- Epic, 900 Biscayne etc.

After a North/South maybe we can then work on Big Ten, Pac 10, ACC etc.

Anonymous
TNT
8 years 1 month ago

dlr,

Did you decide on close / no close for 900? Sounds like you got some intell/done good work on Biscayne wall 411… let’s compare notes …. shoot me a note (I posted my addy for you per request on the Ivy marathon post).

Cheers!

Anonymous
TNT
8 years 1 month ago

Thank you LUCAS for the reply… yep, hard to do analysis with no data 😉 Your efforts are amazingly helpful for folks like myself that do not live in town. You are truly appreciated for creating this exchange medium!!! the work you do here I hope will be paid back to you tenfold.

Anonymous
Upper East Side 10021
8 years 1 month ago

Have you ever heard the phrase “no one should try to catch a falling knife?”

Who is buying?

Credit is tight. 20% down is mandatory.

I think that some of these “sales” are wash sales to prop up the values.

The iceman cometh.

Anonymous
seanjohn
8 years 1 month ago
Lucas Thanks for the update. As you addressed I think one of the most salient data points highlighted was pending sales versus # of sales closed within last 6 months. If we can believe “pending” its a spike certainly given its ~65% of closed sales number. Inventory %’s, even in some troubled larger South Beach buildings has ,on the MLS at least, been decreasing this last quarter as well. My only concern is that there is a hidden pipeline of pending shortsales & forclosures that the data doesn’t reflect. I think there are also closings that are not reflected in… Read more »
Anonymous
Un-Related
8 years 1 month ago
dlr said: “Sorry to go off topic, but Unrelated mentioned that there was no Miami World Center…..He was wrong. Go to miamiworldcenter.com….This will show you what is planned behind the Biscayne Wall. May be well in the future, but I hear the developers are meeting every week in the Penthouse of 900 Biscayne….this is not a stalled project. BIG, BIG money behind this.” Perhaps you should do yourself a favor and read what it is I posted.l It was an article from the Daily Business and here is the first paragraph and the link. I said there was a glitch… Read more »
Anonymous
dlr
8 years 1 month ago
Geesh, hostile crowd. Why don’t you do YOURSELF a favor and read Miamiworldcenter.com I REPEAT, this is NOT the same project that you are referring to in your Bizjournal article Go to skyscrapercity.com….do your homework. Look up 2 topics….1. Empire World Towers…this will tell you all you need to know about the developer in your reference article (Cohen)…yes, your article indicates this project may never happen due to Cohen’s shady dealings. 2. Then go to “Billionaire’s Plan for Park West” and it will tell you all about Miami World Center These developers (Falcone and Roberts) have assembled the MOST amount… Read more »
Anonymous
dlr
8 years 1 month ago

By the way LUCAS, why don’t you clear up Unrelated’s confusion. I’m sure you know he’s a bit confused.

Anonymous
Valet Parking Dude
8 years 1 month ago
To Angel, I used to think that a valet parking building ONLY was a problem. However you get used to it. All of Williams Island is valet only, and though it is an older development that has some of it’s luster, it is still unique and there are many die hards which will never, never leave. The biggest negative of a valet only building is I imagine increased building costs associated with this expense and insurance. You also have the risk at 5 bucks a gallon of a valet guy (who makes 3 dollars plus tips) taking your car for… Read more »
Anonymous
deflation risks
8 years 1 month ago

No one is talking about deflation risks. Right now the two largest deflated assets which are losing significant values are homes and autos. The risk is that the prices still keep going down and still no one buys, they just rent or stay put or repair their car.
If fannie mae and fredie mac go bust there will be significant further fall out in real estate. They handle 50 percent of the mortgages out there, and the financing/loans will dry up totally compared to now and more deflation on home values.

Anonymous
Rob Roe
8 years 1 month ago

“All of Williams Island is valet only, and though it is an older development that has some of it’s luster, it is still unique and there are many die hards which will never, never leave.”

I live in Williams Island and I park my car myself…. im pretty sure all other buildings either have the choice of valet or parking themselves… i hate valet parking its such a pain… not only do you have to tip the guy everytime then there’s that extra couple of minutes you have to wait for your car to come around…

Anonymous
Wayne
8 years 1 month ago

Anyone have a feel for the strength of the HOA at Jade? Are unit owners feeling the effects yet of the defaults? What are your thoughts on upcoming HOA bankruptcies? Also what is the rental policy at Jade? Any restrictions?

Anonymous
8 years 1 month ago
There is not only residential condos under construction north of the Miami River in downtown. The Met 2 project is almost half way upwhich includes a 40 story office building on one side with a 4-5 story 4 or 5 star hotel with The brand JW Marriot Beaux Artes or the like on the other side of the office tower. Coming -with established developers who are walking the walk within a year or so Is the MET retail complex with bookstores etc. and restaurants and a 14 theater movie house complex Then a 1000 foot double tower at Biscayne and… Read more »
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