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5 Highest Condo Sales Closed in January 2010

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The following are the 5 highest condo sales in Miami-Dade County that closed in January 2010 through the MLS:

  • Acqualina PH4501 – 5 bedroom/6.5 bath (6,353 square feet) – This penthouse sold for $4,700,000, or $740 per square foot, on January 27, 2010.
  • Continuum North Tower #TH6 – 4 bedroom/4.5 bath (2,901 square feet) – This townhouse sold for $3,482,400, or $1200 per square foot, on January 29, 2010.
  • Santa Maria #3805 – 4 bedroom/3.5 bath (4,030 square feet) – This unit sold for $2,700,000, or $670 per square foot, on January 4, 2010.
  • Asia #1903 – 4 bedroom/5.5 bath (3,813 square feet) – This unit sold for $2,288,000, or $600 per square foot, on January 15, 2010.
  • Grovenor House #2601 – 4 bedroom/6 bath (4,026 square feet) – This unit sold for $2,190,000, or $544 per square foot, on January 15, 2010. mich


504 thoughts on “5 Highest Condo Sales Closed in January 2010

  1. Bill Wong — I can show you other even more outrageous “sales” that were then used as comps….it wouldn’t surprise me. It is stuff like this that makes buying a condo more difficult and holds the market back. It certainly cause me pause to want to just jump in and buy….so I have to do a lot more homework in this market unfortunately.

  2. $3,482,400. or $1200. per square foot – Continuum North. – Well Joe it looks like you can forget about ever seeing what really does go on behind that locked door on the roof :-)

  3. ALL THIS PROVES IS THAT ……THERE ARE MORE IDIOTS THAN I THOUGHT OUT THERE….and FRAUD IS STILL RUNNING RAMPANT!!!!!! I’m with RENTER TOM. (I’m going to research who ,what and who the Salesperson was) I smell a RAT!!

  4. Those townhouses at Continuum are dreadful. You can barely see top of the ocean and the tower balconies behind them look right over into your patio. No privacy at all.

  5. GoodNews, you sound just as ridiculous with your overly optimistic bullish predictions as some other do with their overly pessimistic bearish predictions.

    If prices started to appreciate rapidly then a large amounts of inventory would enter the market counteracting the appreciation.

    We’re most likely looking at price stabilization followed by minimal appreciation.

  6. Gixxer,
    I’m not surprised by your remark. They fit nicely into that chart… Nobody can even imagine real estate being strong right now, which means exactly that it’ll be strong. It’ll hit 2006 high by 2015, then flatline for 7-10 years until long-term trendline catches up with prices.

  7. Wow, I can’t believe Continuum North @1200/sqf…Who would pay that much for a building where you can get a daily rental! The area is one of the best but something is just not right with this…

  8. Goodnews, other than your chart, are there any fundamentals to support Miami seeing 20%/year appreciation?? Without massive mortgage fraud and easy credit, the boom never would of happened. Those days aren’t coming back, Miami doesn’t have the income/population growth numbers to support such appreciation.

    I don’t always agree with Mr. Gixxer, but his prediction of “price stabilization followed by minimal appreciation” is about right.

    Nothing wrong with being a contrarion (my contrarion view points during the housing bubble/bust made me plenty of $$), but need to have some reason to support your viewpoint.

  9. Goodnews, you’re actually predicting the real estate market all way out to 2025? Wow, can you also tell who will win the next world series?

  10. Visionary, no news about Quantum smell. I spoke to my tenant. He seems to be happy with everything. I also wrote to the management of the building and they responded that the rumors were extremely exagerated. The also mentioned that they are trying to clarify the situation and once it is done they will issue a letter to all owners. That is it.

  11. How does my opinion fit into that chart. From my past comments you can easily see that I still think housing is a good investment. But I fail to see where you getting this if your using long-term trends. The historical trend for appreciation has been about 4%. If you go back to 2001 pricing and apply 4% appreciation you should be at about $193k now when were about $197, so I’d say were close to the bottom. Inventories are decreasing however we’ll have a steady supply of foreclosures and REO’s probably for the next 3 years. If anything you have it backwards. We’ll flatline until around 2013 and then prices will catch up to long term trendlines.

  12. @Gixxer: that is real logic…4% appreciation over time and we are close to bottom now. Also as @Miami Skeptic says there is no income and mortgages to support these high prices. I have been saying for almost a year who can realistically afford these $1M+ deals? There is a reason why homes that were on the market last year for $1.2M ended up selling for $750K.

    Most of these $500K condos require a larger down payment and a salary well into the 6 figures. A lot of people can ‘afford’ the $500K condo, but without easy mortgages good luck.

    Many lenders are requiring a 30-50% down payment (at least 6 months ago.) If I could rent a $500K condo for $1800/month and put my 200K downpayment in the bank earning 7%, I would be living much cheaper than even paying my HOA dues (let alone taxes and mortgage). It is safe to rent and wait for a good deal, as the market is not going to skyrocket anytime soon.

  13. I should have said invested at 7%. It is not too difficult to get 5%+ tax free muni bonds which depending on your tax bracket could be a higher value than 7%.

  14. Goodnews said housing will go back to 2006 prices in five years.

    Seriously. That was said.

    So that leaves us all with two options: (1) Write goodnews off as a blithering moron who fundamentally misunderstands what just happened in Miami and around the world; or (2) write goodnews off as another salesman on commission, willing to outright lie regardless of the consequences to the buyer.

    Take your pick. I say it’s No. 2.

  15. Elvis,

    Those 5%+ tax free muni bonds have maturities of over 15 years (with the exception of California Munis).

    Do you really want to buy long term muni bonds in an inflationary period?

  16. @RAM, I was just using an example. There are other investment vehicles out there which have better yields. And no chance of dipping into California munis! Maybe @Goodnews could make an argument why it is important to invest in California right now:)

    I will be more than happy to sit on the sidelines and give my congrats to people making money hand over fist in the next couple years in the Miami market. I don’t see enough signs that point to Miami doubling in value in 5 years and will accept my poor slumdog status since I am not buying up condos left and right.

  17. Some of these sales reek of fraud. Over a third of Continuum North is on the market right now, with more available for rent. Who in their right mind would pay $1,200/sf for a ground-level townhouse?

    By the way, I don’t want to get into another big Continuum North debate with the trolls and morons, but is it true that there are daily rentals available there? I had heard the security there was very tight. Hard to imagine people coming and going on a daily basis.

  18. The Fed best resource is predicting about an average of a 1% decline in housing prices through April of this year from December. That is the national average. Might be safe to say that Miami condos would be possibly double that??? Say you have a 4% decline in prices, in Miami that would be 8% if double on a $500K condo, that is another $40K. For the year if the price decline continued for 12 months, would be $120K. Just saying…we aren’t at THE bottom here yet, much closer, but not there yet. With Florida having the highest foreclosure rate in the country…..

  19. Yes, Mr. Joe. We have a nightly rate. With free continental breakfast 6-10am. And all rooms equipped with HBO and premium adult pay-per-view.

  20. looks like the arse holes are back. Their (his) 2 week absence was too good to be true. Squash this roach.
    Lucas, please remove #26 and show them (him) you mean business. Even if you are unable to block his IP address as he is a master of the concealing game, you can zap these foul posts as and when they appear and hopefully they (he) will get the message.
    I think a lot of people will agree with this. If anyone thinks contrary then please tell all of us why posts like this which has absolutely nothing to do with free speech should be allowed to the detriment of this blog.

  21. Lucas, Same goes with #85 in a look at the Margaret Pace Park thread.
    You are getting spammed. It is annoying but you have to take a minute to obliterate these posts.
    I am 100% sure, that the IP address of “Aj’s friend” and “Continuum North Front Desk” is the same. Please block this guy and if he changes his IP, then continue to frustrate his efforts.

    If you want to retain serious bloggers on your site, you must do this.

  22. Drew – You should see the hundreds of real vultures flying around and perching on Trump Tower III (which is vacant)….hundreds of them, sorta spooky.

  23. I actually like the continuum town houses. but then i really prefer a townhouse to highrise condo. we just dont have many options for such housing here in miami.
    but those big loft windows at continuum townhomes are fantastic. light up the unit at night and parade around naked, so all the folks walking on the boardwalk are forced to see me in all my glory, up close and personal, disgusted at the site and yet insanely jealous of the house they cannot afford! life would be grand! :)

  24. wanted to comment on the parc lofts sale.

    thoughts…

    1. yes, the location sucks.
    2. i still love the building. frankly, it’s top 5 favorite project in miami.
    3. $122k is an amazing price (3 years ago, the tool owning this place would have listed it for $450-500k).

    final take…decent deal (the location, safe or unsafe, still blows).

  25. and btw AJ, no to EPIC…

    i’m staying on the beach, closing shortly on a great place. slightly overpaying but the buyer is coming to close with 50k out of her own pocket to make the deal work.

  26. Renter Tom -

    I think you’re right. We’re getting there but we’ve a year or so to go before we hit bottom. In the meantime, park your cash in my very favorite stock – NLY – for its big fat 17% dividend; its a great play for another 6-9 months. And why shouldn’t we try to time the bottom? We’re watching closely and we see it coming…not yet…but coming.

  27. And so much for the Euros snapping up condos in South Beach. Of course there are always those “former” Venezuelan bankers on the run from Chavez and who can blame them? To be contrarian, isn’t now the time to pick up beachfront property in Margarita Island on the cheap? Buy low. Sell high. And I’ve a funny feeling Senor Chavez isn’t going to be around much longer. It’s all going to hell now in Venezuela – the country that God gave everything to: weather, beaches, gold, oil. And look at it now. Can’t even keep the lights on.

  28. Just saw this in the Miami Herald.

    The issue with this online auction site is that the people whose complaints are aired in this article are the typical “unsophisticated” rookies and/or careless buyers who got caught not doing their research.

    No one should be surprised, shocked or astounded to learn that the luxury condo they purchased for $140K at auction is encumbered with debt obligations that remain on going because all buyers must assume that a mortgage lender’s interest is a secured. No buyer should be surprised to learn that the luxury condo he is bidding on has a lien on it from the condo association as these liens are typically secured interests that do not disappear when a property is sold at auction. More importantly, no buyer should be surprised when a property is offered for sale at auction by someone other than the bank or superior debt holder remains encumbered with the outstanding debt obligation(s).

    Caveat emptor my friends. Caveat emptor.

    Here is the link and, for your convenience, I have the entire article reprinted below. http://www.miamiherald.com/news/front-page/v-fullstory/story/1488235.html

    Happy Friday!

    scriv

    Miami-Dade foreclosure auction site baffles bargain hunters
    The first month of Miami-Dade’s online auction program has led to increased sales, but some buyers say the lack of safeguards has cost them thousands.

    By TOLUSE OLORUNNIPA
    tolorunnipa@MiamiHerald.com

    A new online foreclosure auction system started with a mission of quickly moving a chunk of foreclosed properties while opening up the bidding process to regular folks.

    A little more than a month later, some of the newcomers who bought property online say they were misled by the site and ended up spending thousands of dollars on condo liens and properties laden with hefty mortgages.

    In some cases, after purchasing, they found the properties were still subject to foreclosure.

    Miami-Dade County Clerk of Courts Harvey Ruvin said the online auction process is working as planned, and the few complaints he has received have come from people who did not take the time to understand the process.

    The site has sold more than 1,500 homes in its first four weeks, with buyers hailing from all over the world. The clerk expects the number of homes sold each week to continue to rise, eventually reaching as many 2,000 a week, a pace that will help cut into the cumbersome backlog of more than 100,000 foreclosure filings.

    Those who have lost money point to the disconnect between the website’s buyer-beware disclaimers, and the county’s attempts to promote the site as simple and straightforward “just like eBay.”

    `THIS IS NOT SIMPLE’

    Alain Lantigua, a seasoned investor who had regularly attended the courthouse auctions, said that while he likes the new system, the shift to online sales has brought in hundreds of novices, many of whom don’t take the time to properly research a property before bidding.

    “This is not simple — this is a very, very complicated business,” said Lantigua who researches as many as 1,000 properties a month and generally ends up buying only one or two. “And you gotta know what you’re doing. And if you don’t, you’re going to lose a lot of money. And people are losing hundreds of thousands of dollars a day.”

    Ruvin said the site is easy to use and more welcoming to beginners than the often-tense courthouse auctions.

    But users still have to do their own research.

    “Replete on the website are very clear disclaimers that in no way are we representing title or the presence or lack of additional encumbrances on the sites,” Ruvin said. And he emphasized that “encumbrances” — such as an outstanding mortgage that would preclude owning a property free and clear — should be thoroughly researched before placing any bids online.

    Condo boards often choose to foreclose when owners default on their condo association payments, but such liens that give creditors a claim against a property are superseded when a mortgage company forecloses, leaving an outstanding mortgage to be paid. Under Florida law, a mortgage company’s foreclosure overrules a condo lien.

    Sehan Thompson, a Fort Lauderdale businessman, admits he made a beginner’s mistake when he bid $9,100 for a North Miami Beach condo with an assessed value upward of $140,000. Less than 24 hours after submitting his winning bid, he discovered that what he had actually bid on was the right to buy a $9,000 condo lien.

    The owner of the property owed more than $100,000 to the bank, which retained the right to foreclose.

    “I thought I had gotten a good deal and I was extremely excited,” Thompson said. “I don’t know what I’m going to do next. To my understanding, there’s not much I can actually do.”

    Lloyd McClendon, chief executive of RealAuction, the company that manages Miami-Dade’s auction website, said the site has multiple warning signs that remind bidders to do their own research before purchasing “what could be the largest investment product of their life.”

    For example, when users access the site, they are greeted with a 2,300-word terms of use form, which they must agree to before proceeding. Additionally, each time they bid on a property, it’s necessary to click a box that states, among other things: “I further acknowledge and understand that the Clerk makes no warranties regarding title outstanding liens or other encumbrances.”

    “There’s no way to protect people from themselves,” McClendon said.

    PROTECTING CONSUMERS

    The county has taken a few steps to protect consumers from repeating the mistakes of a select few, Ruvin said. After the issue of superseding liens came up, county officials highlighted the part of the disclaimer that addresses outstanding liens with bold, capitalized red letters, and added further details about the kinds of challenges that could come up for potential buyers.

    Samuel Sontag, a New Yorker who bid $95,600 for the right to pay off a $13,000 Miami Beach condo association lien, said the easily-skimmed-over disclaimer shouldn’t be the only safeguard against buying encumbered property titles.

    The site, which offers bidders links to information such as a property appraiser’s report and the foreclosure files, should also provide a direct link to title records, he argues.

    There should be a “red flag” attached to properties that are likely to face bank foreclosure or other lien issues down the road, he said.

    After wiring $95,600 to the county for what he thought was a clear title to a one-bedroom condo in Miami Beach, Sontag got a call from a Sarasota woman who told him that IndyMac Federal Bank had a superior lien on the property and there was an outstanding $265,000 mortgage.

    “Everything was there to give the impression that you’re buying the full lien, you’re going to get a clean title and you’ve got yourself a bargain because the real estate market in Miami-Dade County is down,” he said.

    Sontag said he would not have found out about the $265,000 mortgage until months later if the woman had not called him — a fate some say will soon face other unsuspecting buyers when they are foreclosed out of the properties they won via auction.

    Sontag later resolved the issue after flying down to South Florida to meet with lawyers and members of the condo association board, but still ended up losing about $20,000.

    A WARNING

    He has been calling people who place winning bids on condo liens to warn them not to pay the balance, typically due by noon the following day.

    After receiving such a call, Sylvia Belmonte, of Miami, walked away from her winning bid on a downtown Miami condo. She forfeited her deposit, losing more than $5,000.

    RealAuction, which began operating county auction websites in Florida in 2008, maintains that the onus remains on the users.

    “When you purchase a property at a foreclosure, you have to do your own research to find if it has liens on it, if it’s a toxic waste dump, if it’s burned down,” McClendon said.

    The Plantation-based company, which receives up to $70 for each sale processed through the site, is scheduled to launch an online foreclosure system in Broward County next month.

  29. I know some on this blog disapprove of negative news stories, but the following is worth sharing.

    South Beach has (and will have) a major image problem if this type of activity continues. How many violent crimes have occurred on South Beach within the past 2 years? Several. With fatalities.

    Its just an example of the low-life riff raff that come here as tourists or (more likely) are local residents. How can South Beach condos/restaurants/hotels/clubs attempt to create an aura of sophistication and luxury when people are getting killed on Collins Ave in broad daylight….less than a mile away where fools are paying $1200sf for a townhouse?
    ———————
    Posted on Fri, Feb. 19, 2010
    Teen fatally stabbed along Collins Avenue in Miami Beach

    The Miami Herald

    A teenager was stabbed to death Thursday afternoon, police said.
    Police said they found 18-year-old Gustavo Sanchez with stab wounds in his chest and back in the 2300 block of Collins Avenue.

    He was taken to the Ryder Trauma Center at Jackson Memorial Hospital in Miami, where he died.

    Police said they had no further details and were continuing their investigation.

  30. People come to Miami to see this type of stuff. Why would you come to Miami after watching Miami-Vice and CSI Miami? Seriously, people go to vegas to party, gamble, drink, drugs and sex. Miami isn’t much higher on the society scale.

  31. Its funny how people here ignore actual facts and would rather talk about speculation. Renter Tom takes a prediction that a national decline of 1% in 4 months (which would be just over 3% for a year) and turns it into a 24% yearly decline for 5ook Miami condos.

    But Just the Facts? posted MLS numbers showing that supply off condos in Dade county were was at 37 months in Nov ’08 and it was at 18 months in Dec ’09 and no comment.

    Furthermore the average price per sqft for Dade county condos was $176 in May ’09 and hasn’t been that low since.

    The average price per condo sold also hit a bottom in May ’09 at $210k

    Foreclosures also peaked in Apr ’09 and have been lower ever since. They are currently 32% lower YoY.

    Is there a condo that will sell 24% lower in a year…. probably. But just like in DJ’s case there are condos out there that could sell at at a profit. That why we look at things like average price sold and average price per sqft. Not only have these numbers not gone down, they’ve gone up. And this has happened during a time when most sales have come from cheaper condos. Even as more expensive condos are discounted and begin to sale there not going to be lower than $176 sqft. I think 2010 will be volatile and there will be winners and losers so you have to be a careful investor but when its written in the history books the bottom will be etched in as occurring in the middle of ’09.

    By what measure are people using when they are saying were not at the bottom?

  32. Drew, There is a difference. You are a long time poster who has posted articles of concern. You did not use a fly by night handle like “Continuum North Roof Top” etc. just to cause mischief. Jokes and crime stories are always welcome if they are somewhat relevant and not with any malicious intent.

    Lucas,
    what have you decided about such posters and such posts? You have not removed #26 and #85 in Margaret Pace Park thread. Have you tried to block his IP?

    At least let us know where we stand and you stand on this issue. Do you want to turn a blind eye to such post and posters because it will appear that your thread has a lot of posts and hence a lot of blogger participation, even though it will damage the credibility of this blog?

    Or do you believe that removing these posts amount to censorship?

  33. AJ, calm down. If people post moronic stuff simply ignore it. One person posted a stupid thread and you’ve now posted three times complaining about it. Honestly I’d rather Lucas spend his time publishing an inventory report since the last one was published back in Jul ’09 (hint, hint).

  34. Some light humor never hurt anyone. The Pace Park pitching tents and the 1800 Murder Club posts were quite funny.

    This place really needs a vBulletin forum,where members have the same name and its more difficult to change identities.

  35. Gixxer 1000 – NOOOOO, that was 1% PER MONTH. Sorry for not being clearer in my post for four months. Hence 4% or 12% IF trend continues for the year.

  36. Renter Tom, could you please provide a link. Only sources I have found pushing a 12% decrease in 2010 is a guy named Michael David White who is pushing some serious politically motivated ideological spin.

  37. Gixxer 1000 – It was from an article by First American CoreLogic on their home price index and forecast. Didn’t save the link but just do a google search.

  38. Gixer,
    you should be using case/schiller index to examine price changes. averages per sq/ft cover the entire spectrum and are biased based upon whether high end or low end sales flucuate more. case tells you whether the trend is truly rising or falling for a specific unit in a specific town. not that case doesnt have its own faults, but it does serve a specific purpose. better than aggregate numbers from the govt and realtors.

  39. How is it that supply dropped 14,000 units in one month? Am I the only one who thinks most of the statistics in the condo game in Miami are rigged?

  40. Just the facts…

    That’s clearly a typo. If you go to the websites all their numbers for Jan ’10 are off. They probably haven’t entered all the Jan info into their database yet. Just wait a month.

  41. Couldnt agree more that the last two weeks have been “idiot free” and hope it remains that way. Also agree with Gixer that Lucas should focus on what set this site apart and that is/was his graphs and statistics on an atleast semi annual basis. The Miami condo-closing rate, as well as the inventory reports. Look forward to seeing them again. Oh and the iphone app is genious..congrats lucas…

  42. Drew — South Beach started to go downhill almost precisely at the time the hip-hop crowd took over the club scene. When I first went to SoBe in the ’90s, I can remember not wanting to walk down Ocean Drive unless I was well-dressed and well-groomed. Then, around 2003 or ’04, it seemed like an NBA jersey suddenly became high style, with gangs of thugs seen roaming the streets at all hours. The best thing that could happen to SoBe is if the hip-hop rage burns out and a more mellow club scene returns.

    The funny thing is, I can remember when almost everyone was complaining — and complaining LOUDLY — that SoBe’s trend toward high-end residential was going to turn SoBe into a de facto retirement community. That prediction obviously couldn’t have been more wrong.

  43. Tsk, Tsk, Tsk Renter Tom,

    What a way to misrepresent the data. I just finished reading the article from First American Corelogic about their home price index and forecast. For everyone else here is a link:

    http://www.facorelogic.com/newsroom/pressreleasedetails.jsp?id=10618

    I’ll highlight some of Renter Tom’s misrepresentations.

    Renter Tom:
    “The Fed best resource is predicting about an average of a 1% decline in housing prices through April of this year from December.”

    “Sorry for not being clearer in my post for four months. Hence 4% or 12% IF trend continues for the year.”

    Corelogic:
    “First American CoreLogic’s forecast continues to project declining house prices into the spring months. The national HPI is projected to fall an average of 4.4 percent through April 2010″

    “Nationally, the HPI 12-MONTH FORECAST is expected to be up 3.5 percent excluding distressed sales; and up 2.7 percent including distressed sales by December 2010.”

    So Renter Tom says 12% if the trend through April continues throughout the rest of the year, BUT the article clearly states that it does not expect this trend to continue and and says the 12 month forecast is expected to be UP 2.7%

    Furthermore they also have a 12 month forecast specifically for MIAMI. And their projection is that Miami will be UP 1.7%. So he quotes the NATIONAL decrease of 4% through April but leaves out the MIAMI increase of 1.7% through December.

  44. Gixxer 1000 – I found the link of what I read on the matter:

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/02/first-american-corelogic-house-prices.html

    I then glanced through the linked article regarding loan performance:

    http://www.loanperformance.com/email/hpi/newsletter_hpi_0210.html

    “First American CoreLogic’s forecast continues to project declining house prices into the spring months. The national HPI is projected to fall an average of 4.4 percent through April 2010, as high levels of unemployment, housing inventories and foreclosures continue to exert downward pressure on prices.”

    Hey, if I misstated something, I’d be the first to pony up to the bar and admit it my error. I don’t have a hidden agenda, just want a realistic picture of what is going on. Tell me where I made an error???

  45. Gixxer 1000 – I found the link of what I read on the matter:

    TOOK OUT LINKS SINCE GOT A “Your comment is awaiting moderation.” MESSAGE. ONCE COMMENT GETS POSTED, SO WILL THE LINKS

    I then glanced through the linked article regarding loan performance:

    TOOK OUT LINKS SINCE GOT A “Your comment is awaiting moderation.” MESSAGE. ONCE COMMENT GETS POSTED, SO WILL THE LINKS

    “First American CoreLogic’s forecast continues to project declining house prices into the spring months. The national HPI is projected to fall an average of 4.4 percent through April 2010, as high levels of unemployment, housing inventories and foreclosures continue to exert downward pressure on prices.”

    Hey, if I misstated something, I’d be the first to pony up to the bar and admit it my error. I don’t have a hidden agenda, just want a realistic picture of what is going on. Tell me where I made an error???

  46. Joe
    That’s true (in part). But I think the problem is more class-based than race-based (assuming of course that you’re equating hip-hop with blacks, which I suspect you are). Instead, the area has developed a certain reputation that attracts low-class people who seem to believe that guns and knives are ok to bring out on a Sat night b/c they were raised on a culture of violence. Couple this with free-flowing booze and 5am closing times and you’ve got a recipe for disaster.

    I don’t necessarily blame the clubs themselves- they need to make money and will cater to whatever is popular at the moment… besides, all the criminals prowling the South Beach streets can’t afford to even enter the clubs, even the hip-hop clubs. These derelicts are getting wasted at Fat Tuesdays and Senor Frogs then go looking for trouble.

  47. Renter Tom,

    “Hey, if I misstated something, I’d be the first to pony up to the bar and admit it my error. I don’t have a hidden agenda, just want a realistic picture of what is going on. Tell me where I made an error???”

    How about READING THE ENTIRE PARAGRAPH:

    “Nationally, the HPI 12-month forecast is expected to be up 3.5 percent excluding distressed sales; and up 2.7 percent including distressed sales by December 2010.”

    I mean it’s in the same freakin’ paragraph. They are predicting a 4.4% national drop through April ’10 but also expect prices to actually be up by 2.7% by December ’10. They also specifically stated the forecast for Miami to be up 1.7% by December ’10.

  48. Gixxer 1000 – Read:

    ““First American CoreLogic’s forecast continues to project declining house prices into the spring months. The national HPI is projected to fall an average of 4.4 percent through April 2010, as high levels of unemployment, housing inventories and foreclosures continue to exert downward pressure on prices.””

    What part of that did I misread??? Moreover, that is keeping with many views that home prices will fall another 10% in 2010 and the Money Magazine article predicting 29.6% for our area. If you think home prices for the Miami area will be up 1.7% then I’d say you’ve been hanging out at Pace Park waaaay too much!

  49. Renter Tom,

    READ THE ENTIRE PARAGRAPH:

    “First American CoreLogic’s forecast continues to project declining house prices into the spring months. The national HPI is projected to fall an average of 4.4 percent through April 2010, as high levels of unemployment, housing inventories and foreclosures continue to exert downward pressure on prices. The forecast indicates that April will be a critical month for the housing market, given the current scheduled expiration of the federal homebuyer tax credit. While the tax credit provided some significant support to house prices in 2009, the forecast model currently indicates that the future path of house prices after April will be significantly impacted by whether the tax credit is allowed to expire or is once again extended. Nationally, the HPI 12-month forecast is expected to be up 3.5 percent excluding distressed sales; and up 2.7 percent including distressed sales by December 2010.”

    I will repeat one more time. This is an article that you quoted. It clearly says as the last sentence of this paragraph that you are quoting from:

    “Nationally, the HPI 12-month forecast is expected to be up 3.5 percent excluding distressed sales; and up 2.7 percent including distressed sales by December 2010.”

    I don’t see how you can read the first half of the paragraph and then all of a sudden forget English and not read the last sentence in it. They predict that prices will decrease until April and then rise from April to end the year 2.7% higher than NOW.

    Also here is another quoted from the same source in an article dated 1/21/10:

    “First American CoreLogic is projecting further declines followed by a recovery in the spring”

    The last time I checked April is in the spring.

    http://www.facorelogic.com/newsroom/pressreleasedetails.jsp?id=10548

  50. Gixxer 1000 – What part are you intentionally being dense about? I provided the full paragraph quote from what I read:

    “First American CoreLogic’s forecast continues to project declining house prices into the spring months. The national HPI is projected to fall an average of 4.4 percent through April 2010, as high levels of unemployment, housing inventories and foreclosures continue to exert downward pressure on prices”

    That statement is pretty clear Gixxer 1000. The blog won’t let me post links so I will try again but taking off the first part that you can fill in.

    “calculatedriskblog.com/2010/02/first-american-corelogic-house-prices.html”

    Again, Gixxer 1000, are you saying the Miami area real estate market will be up 1.7% for 2010 or not??? Answer that please.

  51. Oh I see, Gixxer 1000 thinks you should EXCLUDE “distressed” sales which will make up 25%-50% of sales in our area. Yeah, that makes a lot of sense….yep (sarcasm). Home prices are UP for the last two years if you take out the cheap prices!

  52. Why are YOU being dense.

    You are reading PART of a PARAGRAPH on calculated risk blog that did not publish the entire paragraph of the article from First American Corelogic.

    I have provided you links to the original source with the ENTIRE paragraph. I have even posted the entire paragraph. The entire paragraph says prices will decrease 4.4% to April and then rebound and end the year 2.7% higher.

    I’m not saying this will or wont happen. I’m saying this is what the original source that you quoted is saying. First American CoreLogic is the author of this home price index NOT calculated risk.

    Yes I think the Miami real estate market could be up 1.7% by DECEMBER 2010. But AGAIN this is NOT my forecast, this is the forecast from First American Corelogic, the source that YOU quoted.

  53. Renter Tom,

    “Oh I see, Gixxer 1000 thinks you should EXCLUDE “distressed” sales which will make up 25%-50% of sales in our area. Yeah, that makes a lot of sense….yep (sarcasm). Home prices are UP for the last two years if you take out the cheap prices!”

    No the 1.7% figure is INCLUDING distressed sales. And again I’m simply quoting the original source that YOU quoted from.

  54. BTW, isn’t calculated risk blog authored by someone on this site? I’ve looked at it a few times and always thought it seemed heavily biased. If they only posted a portion of the original article being discussed now, I think that is pretty misleading, and obviously highlights that bias. I’d rate calculated risk blog as a source of info on RE about the same as I’d rate FOXnews as a media outlet.

  55. Drew — I do associate the hip-hop scene with blacks, but that wasn’t the point I was trying to make above. Regardless, whether you call it a race issue or a class issue, the same point applies: Miami Beach started to decline when hip-hop became the main attraction rather than an occasional sideshow event. Otherwise, I’d love to know people’s theories as to why SoBe has declined so much at the same time SoBe real estate prices have doubled or tripled. Personally, I see it as this: Too many clubs = too few dollars to go around = clubs cater to the lowest common denominator, which has brought the dregs from other areas over to cause trouble.

    And again, while by no means am I blaming blacks for all of SoBe’s problems, Black Beach Week has been a major contributor to the Beach’s declining image/reputation. That whole event is a human debacle.

  56. Yes DJ,

    Renter Tom read part of the article from a website that cherry picked a portion of the paragraph and conveniently left out the end of it because it didn’t support their views.

    It’s like me saying” I don’t like steak, unless its cooked medium rare” and someone just posting the quote that says “I don’t like steak”.

    Looking at the link I can see that Renter Tom did not intentionally try to mislead anyone. He was simply being misled by the irresponsible tactics at calculated risk.

    I’m curious see how he reacts to the information from First American CoreLogic now. When the information supported his views he felt confident quoting it. Now that he knows that home price index contradicts his views and predicts a rebound how will he view the info now. …

  57. DJ, calculated risk blog is quite useful. their is some bias but still a very educated blogger.

    gixxer, case/schiller is still dropping year over year at 4% (much improved on the 20% yoy we saw in the past). the index itself seems to have possibly stabilized, but will take until early summer to know for sure. at some point we had to get a positive showing off of the horrendous declines from the past two years.

  58. gables,

    Case/Shiller is not dropping 4% year over year. It says that current house prices are down 4% year over year. There is a difference. Case/Shiller data is present as YoY. Therefore it would actually take a year after the lowest point to show you where the lowest point is at.

    http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices/en/us/?indexId=spusa-cashpidff–p-us—-

    Here is the latest Case/Shiller report from Nov ’09. Click on the first link at it will take you to a PDF of the press release. The first chart shows the YoY percent change and you’ll see that right now that prices are 4% lower than they were a year ago. But that’s because they decreased from Nov ’08 to around mid ’09 where they begin increasing. So they are still lower than a year ago but they are higher than six months ago. A bottom has been reached.

    Scroll down to the next chart which shows the actual index levels. You can see that the national 20 year composite index level decreased to around 150 in mid ’09 and has increase since then. It also says that prices have leveled off to about 2003 prices.

    That’s not to say that prices couldn’t change and go negative again. I’m simply stating that Case/Shiller, average price per sqft, and average sales price all bottomed mid ’09 and have increased since then.

    So argue a double dip if you want, but a bottom has clearly been reached.

  59. Calculated Risk has been one of the best Econ/Finance blogs for several years now, and very accurately called the housing bubble and subsequent events.

    It is one of the most read econ blogs out there, and has been cited in the mainstream media various times. It has been a very useful source of information for me personally for awhile now. The mainstream media is financially illiterate, so blogs are an important source of info.

    Also, note that the widely cited Case Schiller numbers exclude condos and co-ops. There is a condo index, but it usually isn’t the one cited.

  60. Hey guys!! I see you know this market pretty well. I just moved in from LA and I’m looking to buy a NEW 1/1 apartment in Brickell or the near area in Downtown. I would like to buy from a developer not a third party… but my best friend, who’s a Realtor has not much clue in this market, he’s more in the FTL area… Could you advise so I can give him hints of good Condos we can visit??

  61. Lucky us, another socialist from bankrupted California is trying his(her) luck in Miami. What, Pelosi, Boxer, and Feinstein didn’t work out for you?

  62. gixxer, that “bottom has clearly been reached” becomes nothing more than a relative minimum, and not a bottom, if we are in a double dip. hey, i’m all for a bottom and then hold steady. lets me buy a new pad sooner rather than later. not worried much about appreciation over the next year or two, either.

  63. Joe
    I do agree that 2002 (or was it ’03?) Memorial Day Weekend South Beach was a watershed event. And it took everyone by surprise. I remember going to South Beach that Sat night and have never felt so out of place in my entire life. I thought I was an extra in a Rick Ross video.

  64. Drew — Agreed. I guess they’ve cleaned it up a little, but I’m not sure if that’s because the event has gotten better or simply because the M.B. police dept. relaxes its arrest policy that weekend to avoid the inevitable NAACP outcry that happened after each of the first few events.

    As I said above, I’m not trying to turn this into a “blame the blacks” kind of thing. Clearly, Miami wouldn’t be my favorite city if I had a problem with minorities. I’m just saying that the trend toward hip-hop seemed to mark the decline of SoBe as an “upscale” destination. Catering to the hip-hop crowd might be putting some money in some clubs’ cash registers, but I can’t see how it’s been good for SoBe overall. Call me an elitist, but I’d much prefer the old house-music-and-velvet-ropes days to the current I-hope-I-don’t-get-stabbed-here scene.

    One of the things that I loved the most about SoBe was that you could walk out of a club at any hour and wander the streets, with the biggest hassle being a panhandler or a hooker. But when people are getting stabbed to death on the 2300 block of Collins in broad daylight, the times have changed for the worse.

  65. Some ill informed; dare I say “retard” for fear of offending Sara Palin stated above that historically houses have appreciated 4% per year, that is absolutely untrue. The truth is; historically houses have been what they were always designed to have been, a frigging roof over your head as opposed to an investment. It has only been this decade whereby the masses (read idiots) have viewed houses as an investment.

    The absolute truth is; while real estate has indeed been an investment, it has only been such for the savvy (read pros of which The Ace is a proud member) and the elite (read rich and connected of which The Ace is also a proud member). For the masses (read most poeople prior to 2000) it has been a break even deal at best but as we all need a roof over our head a break even point from buying a house verses renting a house is a simply matter of personal choice (read freedom).

    For the record; house appreciation has been tracked in Europe for over 500 years and has NEVER EVER exceeded 3% per year on average during those 500 years the exception being this decade. And once you factor in inflation the end result is a net loss, how great is dependent upon other costs such as taxes, maintenance etc, again the exception being the earlier part of this decade . The fact of the matter is house prices have to stay on par with income and any deviation from this will as has been witnessed around the world; result in a correction and in this paricular case a massive one.

    For those of you still dreaming of the return of $700.00 a square foot dream on, meanwhile The Ace continues to cheerfully cherry pick the pie (read real estate carcuss) at $125.00

    Telling you like it is, fair, balanced and unafraid for five years plus:

    The Ace.

  66. so joe, one week out of 52 “has has been a major contributor to the Beach’s declining image/reputation. That whole event is a human debacle.” You racist idiot

  67. Ramon Sykes #87 — Thanks for the feedback. Always great to hear from a fan.

    To repeat, Black Beach Week is, indeed, a human debacle. It features every form of human misogyny imaginable — shootings and stabbings, rampant drug use, public urination and copulation, lewd comments hurled at every female in sight, etc. — and Miami Beach would be much, much better off without it. (And lest this statement offends anyone else’s P.C. sensibilities, please rest assured that if a huge group of Hispanics or whites or Asians or half-Asian Australians comes to the Beach and collectively comports themselves in the same manner seen during Black Beach Week, I’ll bash them just as much.)

    ——

    GoodNews — What’s a Realtard ™ like you doing up so late on a Friday night? Don’t you have showings scheduled for tomorrow (Saturday) morning?

  68. Joe, go grab yourself a bungalo in Model City and get started in appreciating it by 3% per annum for the next 700 years. Compound interest, mind you. No less authority than The ASSE had told you so. You boneheads make my day every time…

  69. Yeah, 6th place is not bad.. the classic photo shows the neighbors of the so-called ” Biscayne corridor”
    And some people here still say I am delusional when I say those buildings are surrounded by hobos!
    As, I have said before, maybe when Camillus House is finally removed from the area, this will improve. The world project would definitely be an improvement, but it seems they are just lingering on with another project, like most things in Miami ( they are talking about 10 years to get it done, and there is no indication that someone is really doing it – as a matter of fact, the latest news were that the developers had jumped out of the wagon ).
    What’s the logic of living in a pseudo-classy building if this is what the area you live in looks like?
    Prime views if facing east,but living with the homeless. Go figure!

  70. Joe

    Stereotypes ingrained at an early age are difficult to shake. So yeah you probably are a closet racist. The firsy step in recovery is to admit to yourself that you have a problem.
    All of the nasty deeds that you mention – rampant drug use – public urination and copulation etc. etc. etc. I have personally witnessed those acts and more in South beach – mostly by latinos and whites but for some reason no asians haha. Just sayin.
    And finally you only damage your credibility when you reveal to all the world that you don’t even have a clear understanding of the defenition of misogyny.

  71. His douchery aside, The Ace is absolutely correct about the historical value of housing. In reality, a home is an “investment” like a car is an investment. You might make money if you hold on to them long enough and tend to maintenance, but their long-term value of is in their utility. A car gets you to work. A home gives you shelter.

    The idea of housing as an investment is, in fact, a fairly recent one. For a variety of well documented reasons, during the credit bubble era of 1999-2007, that idea became some sort of unwritten law. Housing “always goes up,” we were told, because they’re “not making any more land.” I don’t have to remind anyone of that sales pitch. Some of us are still spouting it.

    All of this is another was of say that Goodnews is a dangerous idiot.

  72. Gixxer 1000 – As I said in my post that you criticized, and which I just re-read, I said “IF THE PRICE DECLINE CONTINUED FOR 12 MONTHS”, not that the source said it would. Other than making a mountain out of a mole hill, my opinion is that the Miami area will continue price declines. I think I had posted before that it would go for at least 6 months if not the entire 2010. I was also a bit skeptical about a 30% price decline as projected by Money Magazine. 10% is very probable. Taking into account persistent high unemployment, mortgage rate resets, increasing strategic defaults, traditional lend and hold lending standards, the Fed exiting the MBS market (no new purchases but still holding these things potentially for decades and hopefully not unloading them), income stagnation, persistent high inventories, probably nationally 5M in new foreclosures/short sales, shadow inventory of people/investors waiting to sell, owners paring down their real estate holdings and eliminating second/third/fourth homes, Europe in continued economic trouble, general loss of enthusiasm for real estate, high bank failure rates, higher local and national taxes, increased insurance costs, etc….. I just don’t see the drivers in real estate for our area and think it is premature to call the bottom here. Certainly, absolutely, no bottom in REAL dollar terms for the Miami area. With that said, it is not unreasonable to be of the opinion that 2010 would be the year of the real estate bottom in nominal dollar terms for most of the country, but for Miami it is less reasonable.

  73. Kramer, you took the words right out of mouth. There is definitely an abundance of all flavors of people acting crazy on south beach.

  74. I’m so confused at to why so many people are on a blog titled “Miami Condo Investments” when it’s clear to them that housing in not an investment. It’s like a christian always going on an atheist blog. What’s the point??

    moretroops wrote:

    “Housing “always goes up,” we were told, because they’re “not making any more land.” I don’t have to remind anyone of that sales pitch.”

    Just because some lame Realtor tried to twist the facts in their sales pitch doesn’t make it false. Smart people understand that a view like “housing always goes up” is clearly wrong. No one is trying to argue this. Housing in some markets could go up while housing in another market goes down. But the argument is that over a LONG period these fluctuations have average about 4% nationally. The exact same could be said for the stock market. Does it “always go up?”. Of course not. But over a long period of time the average is positive. Housing is a LONG term investment. No one with common sense has ever argued that it will always go up in the short term. Just because most people here have the knowledge and memory of a 5th grader doesn’t mean housing isn’t an investment.

    Funny enough moretroops wrote:
    “In reality, a home is an “investment” like a car is an investment. You might make money if you HOLD ON TO THEM LONG ENOUGH and tend to maintenance, but their long-term value of is in their utility. A car gets you to work. A home gives you shelter.”

    That’s sort of a requirement for a LONG TERM INVESTMENT. It’s kind of hard to make money from a long term investment in the short term.

    Furthermore the difference between a house and a car is that a house appreciates while a car depreciates. But the vast majority of cars are never sold at a profit.

    The Ace wrote:

    “Some ill informed; dare I say “retard” for fear of offending Sara Palin stated above that historically houses have appreciated 4% per year, that is absolutely untrue.”

    What a complete moron. Nominal housing prices have increase nationally by about 4%. You can argue that inflation is about the same level so you wouldn’t really see any actual return based on just appreciation alone and I’d agree. But to say houses don’t appreciate is ridiculous. You can look at records and see the sales prices for the EXACT same house. If a house sold for $200k in 1980 and then $215k in 1985 that is an appreciation of 7.5%. Now inflation could have be 8% over the same period but none the less that house still appreciated. In contrast a car bought in 1980 that cost $50k could likely only be worth $35k in 1985, that’s called depreciation.

  75. gixxer, “Miami Condo Investments” blog is not just biased by the people who believe condos are a good real estate investment. many here believe they are a bad investment, or have been over the past few years. This is a very valid stance to take, and still gives me just as much right to voice my opinion on this blog as any bull out there.

    and if housing appreciates 4% annually but inflation persists 4% annually, you are technically correct in saying it is an appreciating asset. but i hope you are not in the investment business, because if you truly believe that to be the reality, you have a very flawed view of profitability.

    and as for the appreciation issue, its really the land (or air space in the condo) that has rising value, not the house itself. this is what has been overlooked in the past decade. the house will behave very similarly to an auto and lose value over time. its the lot its located on that increases in value. this is why you see so many “new” homes built onto existing lots in areas like the gables and grove, with the old homes torn down. also why the new tract homes built in the exburbs are losing value so drastically.

  76. Renter Tom,

    “As I said in my post that you criticized, and which I just re-read, I said “IF THE PRICE DECLINE CONTINUED FOR 12 MONTHS”, not that the source said it would.”

    And I noted that in my rebuttal. I also noted that after reading the link to calculated risk that I can see that you would have only read the negative aspect of the article. See my post #72. So I apologize for the accusation that you were intentionally trying to mislead anyone.

    If it’s not apparent I have no horse in this race. I personally would like prices to go to $125 that the ACE ridiculously expects as that would only be more purchasing power for me. But the information I looking at is telling me otherwise.

    But I am curious to what you think about the FULL article from First American CoreLogic. After all even calculated risk quoted them as “The Fed’s favorite house price indicator” and you were quick to quote their 4.4% national loss prediction. Do you think their 1.7% 12 month forecast for Miami is accurate. And if not why would you rely on their 4.4% nation loss through April and not their 1.7% gain specifically in Miami.

    I actually read through the archives on this forum. It was very information to see peoples assessment as things changed. I followed your transformation from Buyer Tom to Renter Tom. While your assessment of the downward market only came much after the market had already headed downward I do give you much credit for being one of the first few on the blog to understand the severity and position yourself properly. But what I hope doesn’t happen is that while you have been right that a renting position was much better in Miami and still currently is that you don’t lose your objectivity. Afterall your objectivity when you first started posting here is what helped you see what others couldn’t on the way down.

  77. Interested to know if Renter Tom and Gixxer 1000 have read Nassim Taleb (pretty sure they have, they seem well read) and if so, isn’t it rather absurd to be arguing over whether the market will be up 1.7% or down 4% for the year since it is simply a guess.

    Has anyone read “A Random Walk Down Wall Street”? Isn’t it clear that the people giving long term advice, the ones quoted by RT & Gixxer are no better than random chance in their advice, and in many cases worse.

    The point being that that the argument seems to be more about interests. The interests of the buying public vs. the interests of the real estate industry. Am I wrong?

  78. Kramer, Ramon Sykes — blah blah blah.

    First of all, I meant to say “human pathology” instead of “misogyny,” but since there’s no edit function here, I let it slide. But make no mistake, there’s no shortage of misogyny during Black Beach Week. (By the way, Kramer, since you misspelled both “firsy” and “defenition” in your post, you might not want to throw stones. Just sayin’.)

    As for the whole Kumbaya, We-Are-The-World tone of your rebuttals, please spare me. Black Beach Week sucks. Plain and simple. I haven’t seen recent arrest numbers, but a couple years ago, that one weekend accounted for something like 20% of the arrests made in Miami Beach for the whole year. Go spout your egalitarian nonsense elsewhere; no one with an IQ over room temperature could look at Black Beach Week and not be embarrassed for humanity.

  79. “just the facts”, you observations are not correct. when educated people make a prediction on the direction of a market, it is not based on the flip of a coin. it is based on data and research. now granted, the data and research may be flawed, but it does serve as a logical reason for the prediction. leaving long term financial decisions to chance would really be an absurd approach to investing. we do not know the risk component well, and sometimes overstate our knowledge of the reward component. but the long term financial success of millions of people around the world indicates to me skill does make a difference. recent articles in the news (maybe by taleb?) hinted that the accumulation of wealth by warren buffet was purely chance. hogwash. been in this business long enough to know knowledge and hard work gives you a decided advantage over random chance.

  80. Gables,

    I really don’t disagree with most of what you are saying. I also welcome contrasting views and feel they are very helpful. But completely diametrically opposed views usually don’t help. I mean seriously Rush Limbaugh and Keith Olbermann having a conversation isn’t going to do anyone any good. So someone trying to evaluate the condo X as investment and someone coming in and saying I don’t think condo X is a good investment because of A, B and C is definitely great. But then someone else coming in and saying “you retard, no housing is good as an investment you don’t need any facts” doesn’t’ help much.

    “and if housing appreciates 4% annually but inflation persists 4% annually, you are technically correct in saying it is an appreciating asset. but i hope you are not in the investment business, because if you truly believe that to be the reality, you have a very flawed view of profitability.”

    The profitability on real estate is based on more that just appreciation. This is where I do actually agree with moretroops, the Ace, etc that you’re not going to see a return off of appreciation alone. This was part of the problem during the bubble. But that doesn’t change the fact that you can make nice returns off of real estate when you do a complete analysis.

    Here is an article that describes my point of view on a single homeowner buying a house as an investment:

    http://michaelbluejay.com/house/investment.html

    I welcome any critiques.

    “and as for the appreciation issue, its really the land (or air space in the condo) that has rising value, not the house itself. this is what has been overlooked in the past decade. the house will behave very similarly to an auto and lose value over time. its the lot its located on that increases in value. this is why you see so many “new” homes built onto existing lots in areas like the gables and grove, with the old homes torn down. also why the new tract homes built in the exburbs are losing value so drastically.”

    I really don’t disagree here either. But you do buy the land along with the house so it’s really a moot point.

    “gixxer, that “bottom has clearly been reached” becomes nothing more than a relative minimum, and not a bottom, if we are in a double dip. hey, i’m all for a bottom and then hold steady. lets me buy a new pad sooner rather than later. not worried much about appreciation over the next year or two, either.”

    Yes if we double dip then this wouldn’t be the bottom. The info I’m looking at leads me to believe that were not going to double dip. That my opinion. However I agree with you that regardless were not going to see much appreciation in the next year or two.

  81. gables — I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. Most financial “experts” are just charlatans whose annual returns are beaten by the indexes. That’s been true since time immemorial. More often than not, the big money in the markets is made with things like IPOs, which John and Jane Q. Public don’t get access to unless their brother happens to be the broker.

    As for guys like Buffett, the key question is how and when did he amass his initial fortune. The old adage about the first million being the hardest to make is as true as ever. Let’s face it: Once a person has a few million in the bank to invest, it’s almost impossible to lose money over the long term, unless the person is a moron who thinks Bentleys and champagne bottles are “investments.”

  82. Gixxer 1000 — Putting aside our prior skirmishes here, on what info. are you basing your opinion that there won’t be a double dip in the Miami market? (This isn’t a “gotcha” question; I’m simply curious what you’re looking at.)

    Personally, I’m not sure what would cause a double dip in Miami, but I’m curious to see what happens with all of the rentals over the next 1-2 years. I’d bet any amount of money that at least 90% of the rented condos in Miami and Miami Beach that were built after 2002 were intended to be flipped. It will be interesting to see if those owner-investors continue to subsidize rents for a second or third year or if they get out of the rental market en masse.

  83. Gixxer 1000 — That’s an interesting article you posted, but it seems a little overly optimistic, and also seems to be premised on facts that are irrelevant for the majority of buyers — specifically, the “when the loan is paid off” part. I might be wrong, but I believe the average home buyer is only in their home for 5 years or so these days, and when they sell, most “upgrade” to a bigger (and more expensive) home. This means the loan almost *never* gets paid off, which moots the whole second half of the article (and, thus, moots a large part of the so-called “investment”).

  84. From a broader perspective, we have experienced the greatest expansion of credit in human history. For many, this expansion of credit spanned pretty much their entire lives as it has been going on for decades and these people know nothing different. The credit bubble burst first (primarily) in real estate. The total investment in real estate really was astounding, the size of homes, the finishes, the backyard wonderlands, the surge of owning more than one home, etc. The fuel that lit and sustained this fire has burned out. It is too early to call the bottom in the Miami area… I remain a bullish bear. Deals can be found but there is no rush.

    With respect to Black or Urban Beach Week, whether you are black, white, asian, hispanic, or a mute the mentality as illustrated in the article below, even if by just a small % of the total visitors, ruins it for the majority. I know black people that won’t go to South Beach that week stating it is “too ghetto”. My understanding is that it is not just the visitors to SoBe (majority who just want to have a good time and get a little bit wild) it is the locals from Miami area that come to peddle the drugs etc. that incite a lot of problems and it gets blamed on the visitors.

    chicagotribune.com/news/education/ct-met-youth-violence-pride-20100220,0,248470.story

  85. Gables, I am not suggesting that people make financial decisions based upon the flip of a coin. I am suggesting the pissing match between Renter Tom and Gixxer is absurd because the difference between the two (-1.7% & 4%) probably falls within a statistical margin of error. Moreover basing decisions from investment managers (many of who were fatally wrong calling the R.E. bust) and the ridiculous assumption of certainty they provide is patently absurd.

  86. Just the facts?

    Honestly I’m not making much of a “prediction”. Renter Tom was quoting an article that predicted a 4.4% decline through April and then extrapolated that to a 24% decline for a 500k Miami Condo. I was simply pointing out that the same article was also predicting a 1.7% increase for Miami. If Renter Tom simply said he thinks prices will decrease 4% and I thought prices will increase 1.7% I would say cool were both agree that were near the bottom.

    Secondly yes basing decisions based on “investment managers” is absurd. You should be basing your decisions based off of the “information” that investment managers (or from anywhere for that matter) gives you. It is your personal responsibility to understand the information behind the argument and make your own judgment to its validity.

    Why complain about people arguing over the value of a condo investment on a blog about condo investments?

  87. Gixxer 1000 — Putting aside our prior skirmishes here, on what info. are you basing your opinion that there won’t be a double dip in the Miami market? (This isn’t a “gotcha” question; I’m simply curious what you’re looking at.)

    Well I believe one of the biggest factors governing price is inventory. This was Renter Tom’s main argument for the price declines, simply too much inventory. I think actual inventory is decreasing to acceptable levels. But we have a backlog of properties that need to be foreclosed on. Here is another study from CoreLogic about shadow inventory.

    http://go2.wordpress.com/?id=725X1342&site=whitelocust.wordpress.com&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.generationaldynamics.com%2Fcgi-bin%2FD.PL%3Fredir%3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.facorelogic.com%2FuploadedFiles%2FNewsroom%2FRES_in_the_News%2FFACL_Shadow_Inventory_121809.pdf

    If you look at the graphs in the study you see the have broken the pending inventory down into three groups. Pending REO inventory, pending foreclosure inventory and seriously delinquent inventory.

    The pending REO inventory is actually decreasing. This is what is starting to cause prices in some areas to slightly increase. Regular inventory has decreased to acceptable levels and people in some cases are entering bidding wars for the available REO’s. This is also why many people have been calling for a wave of foreclosures and are screaming about shadow inventory. But this shadow inventory doesn’t exist and a wave is never going to come. Instead, because of the policy efforts like HAMP and the fact that politicians are trying to push banks not to foreclose we have this huge built up supply of people that are delinquent (not shadow). Now eventually a large majority of these people will have to be foreclosed on. But because of the length of the process what will most likely happen is that we will have a steady supply of foreclosures for the next 2 or 3 years that will keep the market from appreciating much and will probably also hurt housing starts for a while.

  88. just the facts, i agree with the initial view that arguing over -1.7% and +4% begins to split hairs. but people do tend to extrapolate those views out beyond a year. and over several years there is a huge difference between what appear to be numbers within someone’s view of statistical noise.

    and a good money manager (though quite rare) will provide you with a significant advantage in the markets. the arrogant know it all managers are dangerous, will agree with you. but good ones who are utilized properly are an asset.

    joe, regardless of buffett and how he made his first $million. he did it. and then was extremely successful for the next $50 BILLION. not a snowballs chance you become a billionaire from luck-although it certainly may help you get their faster along the way.

  89. Gixxer 1000 – The bidding wars are only for the properties that sellers/banks WANT bidding wars on. They price it so low that it attracts a lot of attention to try and unload it at about market price at the end. They would have held onto it longer had they just listed it at the market price. People want to feel they are getting a bargain and something that others covet. Sooooo, the RE games continues. On the flip side, there are a lot of stagnant REO’s and short sales (approved and not approved). As I have posted, it is my opinion that 2010 is the year of the REO/Short Sale. Short sales may overtake REO’s as banks work through that instead of pursuing a straight out foreclosure, for various reasons. I don’t take the dip in foreclosures as an inflection point that is noteworthy.

  90. gables — I didn’t remotely suggest that Buffett became a billionaire by luck. I was simply pointing out that, once a person has that first million or first $5 million, they have access to investment opportunities that are unavailable to the schlubs on boards this like this one. Having that kind of capital gives a person an investment momentum akin to a speeding freight train.

    In other words, unless someone here is planning to buy 200 condos, arguing over the difference between a 1% loss and a 3% gain is senseless. Neither are the types of number from which fortunes are made, at least not in a 5- or 10-year period.

  91. Kramer and Ramon,
    I appreciate you trying to set the record straight but Joe is a damn fool. Unfortunately people like that minds can’t be changed. I don’t know why you even give him any credibility by trying to counter his racist opinion. He is a moron and he will die a moron nothing you can do to change that fact, why even bother.

  92. Makes Me Think — Excellent – another fan! Maybe I should start a fan club.

    It’s amazing how speaking the truth makes people go nuts. I haven’t said anything about blacks that even remotely rises to the level of “racism.” I’ve simply stated, and re-stated, my opinion that Black Beach Week is the worst large-scale event of the year in Miami Beach, and that M.B. would be better off without it.

    If anyone cares to offer rebuttal examples, I’m all ears. In the meantime, please spare us the P.C. bullshit, or at least be consistent about it. It’s comical how some of the same clowns who feel no compunction about making fun of the “homeless bums in Pace Park” or the “corrupt Cubans” get all self-righteous when one mentions the word “black.” Give us a break.

  93. some people on this blog are completely clueless. Wow, to equate real estate to a car is beyond comprenshion. I don’t know, let me see, I bought a car for 20K in 200o a year before that I bought a house for 19oK. Fast forwarde to 2006 the car was worth about 3K even though the car was in good shape, that same year I sold the house, the value at that time was 55oK. Please try to find me a car that appreciates like that.
    So looking back the 20K I put down to purchase the home turned into 350K in a span of 7 years while the car I still own but wish I had taken that 20K an bought another house at that time. I know some will say that I got lucky and purchased at the right time when the maket was just taking off well I’ll give you another example. My mother bought her house a decade before me she paid about 170K for her house, she paid off her house about 12 years after she bought it and today the house is paying her 4K/month and it is worth about 60oK, So when some expert comes here telling you about 500 year appreciation rate of real estate please ignore them. Do you really think people with money look at the 500 year appreciation rate of anything?

    500 years, what a f****ing joke!
    let me see 500 years ago…. were there even people living on this earth. Was adam and eve in the garden of eden then? I mean, wasn’t that like day 1 when the lord created the heavens and the earth?

    500 year appreciation rate. LMAF! yeah, that was good one!

  94. “my opinion that Black Beach Week is the worst large-scale event of the year in Miami Beach”

    Joe, you are a fucking moron and a liar! That is not what you said. I am in no position to argue that point. I have never been to that event I have no interest in being there at that time so I couldn’t possibly disagree with that statement. It is not the first time I’ve heard that statement and I’ve heard it from several sources so I don’t doubt that it might be true. That is not what you said. Don’t try to soften your racist tone now.

  95. Nice article ( I mean to get informed )
    Unfortunately, this is why our problems are far from over.
    So every single article on the paper that claims that house sales went up or down or foreclosure numbers went up or down a certain percentage means nothing when we look at the big picture of what is really going on, and not at what we wish to see.
    Reality is tough and is here to stay for a while.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/21/business/economy/21unemployed.html?hp

  96. I’ve since moved from Miami (and out of Florida entirely) but know that every year I lived there (2002-2009) Memorial Day weekend was a time of white flight from Miami Beach. Crime went through the roof and traffic was ridiculous. The waiters didn’t even want to work because no one tipped. Every shop owner, home owner, and cop I knew was in agreement that they would rather not be there. Spare the PC nonsense MMT, it’s common knowledge.

  97. Makes Me Think — Every comment I’ve made about Black Beach Week is right in this thread. If I’m such a “fucking moron and liar,” why not take 30 seconds and list all of my egregiously racist comments?

    The simple fact is, I’ve made no such racist comments. I’ve said the trend toward hip-hop has been bad for the Beach, and I’ve said Black Beach Week — the ultimate example of the trend toward hip-hop — is bad for the Beach.

    Quit acting like a self-righteous moron and use a little logic. It’s not like Black Beach Week is the only week of the year in which blacks are at the Beach. If I didn’t like blacks, I’d *never* go to the Beach, let alone (intend to) buy a condo there.

  98. Did I not say I don’t doubt that?
    I have heard the same from many people, there is no agrument about that?
    i wouldn’t want to be there either. I’ve heard about the crime and mayhem.

    I SAID “I couldn’t possibly disagree with that statement. It is not the first time I’ve heard that statement and I’ve heard it from several sources so I don’t doubt that it might be true”

    Can you guys even read?

  99. Joe you are a moron!
    You go back and read your own statements, I don’t have a second to waste on your ignorance. As I said before you are hopeless, why waste time.

  100. Carlos, what are you reading funny papers for? Within last 700 years in Europe, there were Dark Ages, Black Death pandemic, wars in which whole countries went up in flames, religious vilolence – and real estate still doubled every 27 years ( 3% yearly appreciation).
    Listen to the Ace, buy real estate, and be happy. You still have few hundred years of tax-free returns left in Miami market.

  101. Makes Me Think — What the hell is your problem? If you “couldn’t possibly disagree” that Black Beach Week is terrible, then either (A) you’re a racist, too; or (B) you have no reason to be calling *me* a racist.

  102. GoodNews – While “there were Dark Ages, Black Death pandemic, wars” which kept home demand down and thus prices down, it doesn’t compare to the devastation that Urban Beach Week causes on South Beach!

    - For the truly dense, this was a joke people.

  103. Joe,

    “Then, all of a sudden, around 2004, Ocean Drive was overrun by the Allen Iverson-jersey crowd, and it’s been all downhill since. I don’t mean to sound elitist or racist, but this is the simple truth about SoBe right now.”

    “If it makes you happy, I’ll say “blacks have ruined SoBe for me”

    “I simply noted that the decline of SoBe coincided almost exactly with the massive increase in the volume of the hip-hop crowd flocking to SoBe — blacks, whites, Hispanics, whomever.”

    “South Beach started to go downhill almost precisely at the time the hip-hop crowd took over the club scene. ”

    “I do associate the hip-hop scene with blacks”

    “And again, while by no means am I blaming blacks for all of SoBe’s problems, Black Beach Week has been a major contributor to the Beach’s declining image/reputation. That whole event is a human debacle.”

    “As I said above, I’m not trying to turn this into a “blame the blacks” kind of thing.”

    It seems like you even realize that you’re blaming blacks.

    I’m not saying you’re racist but you do seem to be blaming the “downfall” of south beach on hip-hop and you do associated hip-hop with blacks. If A then B if B then C. Then you actually say that black beach week is a MAJOR contributor to the beach’s declining image???? Seriously when you think of south beach, black beach week is not the first image that comes to mind for most.

    I agree a lot of ridiculous things happen. But you’re constant blaming of south beach’s downfall on hip-hop which you clearly associate with blacks gets old. Especially when you don’t seem to blame anyone else. And the hip-hop scene has very little to do with actual black people. It’s what people like to listen to in clubs whether they be predominately white, black, or anything else.

    And what measure are you using to gauge this “decline” in south beach that has been caused directly as a result of hip-hop music?

  104. Gixxer 1000 — You’re a moron, but I guess you knew that already. The first half of the quotes you cherry-picked above were from about a year ago and were in response to a guy who was trolling for me to give such answers, in much the same way as “Makes Me Think,” who says he agrees with my position but then calls me a racist anyway. Totally ludicrous.

    – Gixxer said: “But you’re constant blaming of south beach’s downfall on hip-hop …”

    Um, by “constantly,” do you mean my small number of comments in the last 36 fucking hours, which were my FIRST COMMENTS on the topic in probably 6-12 months? If so, you need to look up the word “constantly” in the dictionary. (And while you’re at it, you might want to check into the proper usage of “you’re” vs. “your.”)

    – Gixxer said: “And what measure are you using to gauge this “decline” in south beach that has been caused directly as a result of hip-hop music?”

    In case you didn’t notice when you were so busy researching all of my comments from the past 12 months, I didn’t even start this discussion. My comments about the decline of SoBe were in reply to other people who posted above about the alarming uptick in violent crimes in SoBe, including the recent stabbing death, in broad daylight, on the 2300 block of Collins.

    That aside, are you claiming SoBe is the same high-end hot spot that it was in the late ’80s, or ’90s, or early 2000s? Are you claiming my position re: Black Beach Week is somehow unique, when not only is that weekend famous for “white flight” from Miami but even some *black-owned* businesses close for the event?

    All of that aside, if SoBe is so great in your eyes, then why are you constantly harping on how great downtown is now? Has Brickell become a big hip-hop mecca of which I’m unaware? Are you and others racists for preferring downtown — a place that has a noticeable dearth of blacks?

    I shouldn’t be surprised a moron like you invited yourself into this dialogue, but, as with Kramer and Ramon Sykes, a little common sense is a good thing sometimes. There are blacks in SoBe every day of the year. If I had a problem with *all* blacks, as you dolts keep surmising, then why would I want to live in SoBe at all instead of in some other area? Are you really so dense as to not understand that disliking the thug crowd at Black Beach Week does not = disliking all blacks? What part of that is so difficult for you to understand?

  105. Gixxer 1000, Makes Me Think, Kramer, et al — Let me give you simpletons a couple more quick examples: If the Klan came to Miami to protest, I’d call that group a “human debacle.” If, as rumors claim, the cast of Jersey Shore comes to Miami Beach to film its next season, I’m likely to call them a “human debacle” as well. But in neither case would it be logical to extrapolate that I dislike all whites, all Italians, all reality-TV cast members*, all residents of New Jersey, etc., etc. See how that works? Simple, right?

    (* I might, in fact, be guilty of this one, though I make no apologies for it.)

  106. To Post #122

    Bought house in 2000: 190K

    Sold house in 2006: 550K (either one of the savvy (read Ace) or a lucky fool.

    Fast forward to 2010: House now worth 145K a depreciation of 24% in 10 years.

    Still think houses are a good investment for the masses; tell that to the smuck who bought the house in 2006 and is now 100% certain to have been foreclosed upon being that the fool in now underwater to the tune of 405k smuckeroos.

    The Ace: fair, balanced and unafraid.

  107. here is a link to Mish with an example of ORLANDO distress vs nondistress homes and how they affect the perceived price behavior of RE in an area. note Mish is a conservative idealogue, but the example is something people need to take into account when figuring the direction of RE.
    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/02/median-home-prices-in-orlando-area.html
    you can find the story at globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com under the headline
    Median Home Prices In Orlando Area Plunge 14% In January; Orange County Has 13 Months of Unlisted Foreclosures

  108. The Ace,
    what you haven’t taken into consieration is that many and I mean many people took out mtgs during the bubble with very little of their own money into it. I was amazed how many people took out 80/20 loans or other types of loans that required no money down and some people ended up buying houses and walking away with cash. Plus many people spent 6-12 months living in those houses paying no mtg and doing no maint.

    that smuck probably put 0-3% down and paid $0 in closing cost and got to live in the house for 9 months rent free. In 3 years he can go back an do it all over again. That poor smuck probably came out better that most renters. who is the real sucker here?

    I never got how a guy making 35K/yr can go out and secure a mtg on a 450K house with no money down. years latter the house is now worth 200K the guy decides to stop making payments, live in the house for months making no payments while still enjoying the amenities and lifestyle. Then when he is finally kicked out people feel sorry for him,
    Why? That guy made out like a bandit, He came out much better that those so called smart money renters. His credit score took a ding but his credit was probably messed up to begin with. maybe someone can explain that to me

  109. Joe,

    I didn’t call you racist. I simply point out your exact comments. Argue about word usage all you want (which you just used to try and get out of when you incorrectly used the word misused misogyny). Were all typing fast here. I also type “teh” instead of “the” but spell check catches it.

    I was simply point out that YOU have said that you think hip-hip is the reason for the decline of south beach and you associate hip-hip with blacks. Therefore you are associating the downfall of south beach with blacks. The only times I have heard you talk about the decline of south beach, blacks are right there in the mix. No one here including MMT is arguing that black beach week is good. But you can’t think this is the single most detrimental thing in south beach. For example the last time I was out in south beach at Liv people were in the bathrooms doing coke. As a matter of fact every time I go out in south beach I see someone doing coke. And they are NEVER black. But drugs usually run hand in hand with nightclubs. But somehow the “misogyny” of a one week event seems to overshadow nightly activity.

    You’re actually making comments like “I don’t want to sound racist, but…” or “I’m not trying to blame blacks, but…”

    Chances are if you have to prefix a comment with these qualifiers, what comes next is probably going to sound racist to many people, hence the need to defend them as you’re saying them. But if you’re comfortable saying these comments to people in person then let’s simply agree to disagree. No need to call me a moron. Again I clearly stated I don’t think you’re racist. I do think hip-hop culture has had a negative impact on young culture in general. I just don’t have a stereotypical view and associate it with black people. Especially considering the main people that push it are wealthy white record executives and studies show 70% of the people buying hip hop are white kids. But night clubs are night clubs, they attract this kind of attention, white, black or indifferent. You’re beef with hip-hop seems to be about the entire younger generation. This aren’t how they were when you were younger.

    And all of this is besides the fact because if we substituted rock or techno or whatever else the racial make up of the clubs would be the same. I mean seriously, Miami is less than 20% black.

    But “you’re” right I should have stayed out of this type of conversation with a person like you. It won’t happen again.

  110. Ace,

    “Bought house in 2000: 190K

    Sold house in 2006: 550K (either one of the savvy (read Ace) or a lucky fool.

    Fast forward to 2010: House now worth 145K a depreciation of 24% in 10 years.

    Still think houses are a good investment for the masses; tell that to the smuck who bought the house in 2006 and is now 100% certain to have been foreclosed upon being that the fool in now underwater to the tune of 405k smuckeroos.

    The Ace: fair, balanced and unafraid.’

    This has got to be a joke. How are you going to use one example to decide if something is good for the masses. I can give you countless examples where people made money so does that mean it’s good for the masses???

    Can you clowns at least try and use facts. You’re using an example where someone bought a house in 2006 in the HEIGHT OF A FRAUDULENT REAL ESTATE BUBBLE and then are selling it at about the bottom of price declines 4 years later as your example??? The exact same could be said of the stock market. If you bought in ’06 and sold in ’10 you would have gotten hammered. This has nothing to do with the value of stocks or real estate as long term investments.

    Why don’t you try and look at some real data like Case/Shiller (which you quote when it’s appropriate). The Case/Shiller composite index is UP from its inception until now. Prices are currently at 2003 levels. Everyone who bought BEFORE 2003 is doing fine. And people who bought in the 80′s and 90′s are up a lot.

    Real estate has always been a long term investment, hence the 30 year mortgages. Why do you think they don’t give you 30 years to pay off your car? Just because people got greedy and tried to turn real estate into short term investments and it failed does not mean they are still good long term investments like they’ve been for decades.

  111. The last sentence should read….”does not mean they are NOT still good long term investments like they’ve been for decades.”

  112. What a moronic realatard, a 30 year mortgage exist because the masses need 30 years to pay or they’d not be able to afford these ridiculously over priced houses and has nothing to do with a long term investment which I repeat, there is no such thing when you factor in inflation, insurance, taxes, HOA and maintenance then ALL real estate is a bad investment.

    The exceptions being:

    1: Unusally high short term appreciation (a bubble) as was the case at the beginning of the this decade.

    2: Savvy buying by the “smart money” (cash only) for a short sharp turnaround resale to dumb investors late to the party or the massess.

    3: Rental properties with positive cash flow.

    The Ace; fair, balanced and unafraid for over 6 years.

  113. The Ace,

    “when you factor in inflation, insurance, taxes, HOA and maintenance then ALL real estate is a bad investment.”

    Wow here is a simple rent/buy calculator that proves otherwise:

    http://michaelbluejay.com/house/rentvsbuy.html

    Give me any scenario and I’ll prove that buy can be a good investment IF you hold it long enough.

    And sorry Renter Tom the picture of that guy sure as hell ain’t me. But who knows, could be AJ.

  114. To Post #133

    In those scenarios you are correct, lots and lots of fraud was and still is being perpetrated for which you the masses are picking up the tab via higher taxes.

    To further clarify my Post #142 above I know that you’ll all ask The Ace “If ALL real estate is a bad investment for the average Mr & Mrs Joe Smoo when then buy a house in the first place”? A good question my friends but the answer comes down to personal choice do you rent or do you buy, both are losing propositions but as you have to have a roof over your head it comes down to a matter of personal choice.

    The concept of a house as an investment is a lie perpetrated by the NAR that began in the 1970′s prior to that people bought houses simply to live in. We now have an entire generation believing that real estate is a good investment and that “bubble” prices will come back and they will get rich investing in real estate. Wrong, my advice is to leave that to the pros like The Ace and The Donald.

  115. PS: Don’t forget to add the expense of owning or selling a house the 6% paid to the realtards by the masses., two years worth of appreciation down the toilet.

  116. “The Ace; fair, balance and unafraid for over 6 years.”

    Funny enough the last six years have been during the bubble. It seems you have no understanding of the real estate market out side of this bubble.

    “The concept of a house as an investment is a lie perpetrated by the NAR that began in the 1970’s prior to that people bought houses simply to live in.”

    If someone bought a house in the 70′s they would be sitting very well right now. They would have a $400 house payment on a house they probably bought for $50k that is currently worth about $175k with average rent prices more than double what they are paying.

  117. RE has not always been a long term investment which required 30 year mortgages. those did not exist until government guarantees appeared in the 1930′s. before then, nobody was willing to take on any type of risk over a 30 year repayment period. even today that does seem quite absurd-but 40 and 50 year mortgages actually exist as well. before the Depression you bought land based on 50% down and 5 year mortgage scenarios. this is why the Depression was so hard on common folks who were foreclosed on-they lost ALOT of skin in that game. today they are losing less-its the banks and mortgages holders left with the stinging losses. but at least they keep the property.

    in the late 70′s and early 80′s, when interest rates skyrocketed, mortgages originated in the range of 1,5, 10 and sometimes 15 years. 30 year mortgages were not taken out at 15% interest rates. my guess is many of the folks who extol the virtues of RE investment may have made their money from this very unique situation many years ago-think guys like trump. principal costs were low and over time that became profitable. the current collapse in residential and commercial RE may provide similar opportunities-but only if interest rates rise. long term value from RE is made from low capital costs. low interest is not an advantage if everybody has access to it-it keeps the principal values too elevated. the past decade provide both low interest and rising capital value. this combination probably will not happen at that scale again in a long time-it makes no long term economical sense.

  118. Ace,
    I am just curious. How much do you spend on housing each month right now?
    when you have a family, how much do you expect to spen on housing then?

  119. RT #131

    YIKES! Hide the children. Rentertom has a sense of humor. Good one RT. You made me chuckle.
    I am thinking about taking up a collection. Would anyone else be willing to donate to a fund that we could use to bribe Joe to not move to Miami? You know – bribe him to stay in Poughkeepsie and not tarnish our image here in Miami. I have $20. Dollars to kick this off. Anyone else???

  120. Well said Gables Post #148

    They just don’t get it, buying a house has and will never be a long term play it is merely a means of putting a roof over your head. If after 30 years you’ve paid off your mortgage then you have indeed accumlated a nice little nest egg. However, that nest egg has had a 0% return at best even if it appreciates at the 500 year historical norm of 3% because of expenses associated with owning a house. You would have been much better off renting and depositing the savings from renting versus purchasing into a simple savings account paying 3% and after 30 years your nest egg would be far greater than the the nest egg of the person who was a slave to his house for 30 years. But most people don’t have the kind of discipline it takes to creat real wealth for if they did the Goverment would never created the biggest scam ever conceieved; that being Social Sercurity.

    No amount of spin from the NAR and thier legions of realtards can change these facts nor the fact that $125.00 is the bench mark set by non other than The Ace over six years ago.

    Are we there yet :-)

    The Ace; fair, balanced and unafraid for the past six years

  121. Hmmmm – Ace – “Over Six Years Ago”

    That would have been 2003> No? When none of the buildings in Downtown Miami were even built yet Ace was predicting they would collapse to $125. per sq ft. Ha Ha. Nostradamus brother?

  122. Gixxer 1000 — Seriously, are you really this dense, or are you just trolling because you’re a bored Realtard ™ with nothing better to do?

    I associate hip-hop with blacks because — drum roll — IT ORIGINATED IN THE BLACK COMMUNITY. I also associate spaghetti with Italians. Does that also make me racist against Italians?

    Good grief … It’s unbelievable how self-righteous people get when one mentions the word “black.” It’s like all common sense goes out the window.

    As for your allegation that the club (and Beach) demographics would be the same regardless of the type of music, this is demonstrably false. Regardless, even if it was true, I don’t recall people getting shot and stabbed in broad daylight back in the ’80s and ’90s (other than Versace, of course).

    Why is it so damn difficult for you, Kramer, Makes Me Think, Ramon Sykes, et al., to admit that hip-hop attracts a rougher crowd? Seriously, this is about the least controversial and least disputable comment a person could make here in 2010 in the context of the club/entertainment scene.

    When was the last time you were forced to pass through a metal detector on your way into a place that plays country or rock-and-roll music? Are the clubs on SoBe a bunch of racists for using metal detectors on hip-hop nights when no such devices were used in the old house-music days? Please tell us, enlightened one. Please share your P.C. wisdom with us unwashed, racist masses.

  123. Kramer #151 — Typical Miami resident … first impulse is to bribe someone.

    Oh, damn! Now I’m an anti-Miami racist, too! Oh, I hate myself! I hate myself! Aaaahhhh!

  124. Kramer #153 — I can distinctly recall hearing about Miami’s growing real estate bubble as early as 2004, when I wasn’t even living in Miami yet (or paying much attention to Miami’s r.e. market). A person certainly didn’t have to be Nostradamus.

  125. – Gixxer 1000 said: “studies show 70% of the people buying hip hop are white kids.”

    Um, this would only have been a relevant statistic if blacks and whites populated the U.S. at a 1:1 ratio. Since they don’t, this was a silly comment, especially for someone who clearly considers himself to be some sort of statistical and/or investment guru. Nice try, though.

  126. The Ace — Keep preaching. The accurate analysis aside, your commentary has always been the most entertaining here.

    That said, I don’t know why you bother anymore. It’s obvious this site, like most other r.e. sites these days, are overpopulated with people who have little education and few job skills, who got used to slapping properties on the MLS and collecting fat commissions for doing little or nothing. Those days are long, long gone, but if I was one of them, I’m sure I’d be clinging to the hope that somehow, someday, that gravy train will ride again.

    (My prediction: By the time the next r.e. boom occurs, people will be listing their homes online in a FSBO-type situation and will be paying no more than 1 or 2% for the privilege/transaction. Especially with stagnant r.e. prices likely to continue for years, people (and especially people under 60) aren’t going to keep paying 6 to 8% to sell their homes. No chance in hell.)

    This board, in particular, is full of people living in fantasyland — people who are unable to bring themselves to understand that the American standard of living is trending downward, both because of the lack of easy credit and because of the country’s overall financial state and demographics.

    Miami residents, of all people, should know this more than anyone, but Miami folks seem to be a tad slow on the uptake. Two years after a historic r.e. boom that netted Miami Dade record tax receipts for a 7 to 10-year period, Miami now teeters on the verge of bankruptcy. Yet people here seem to think the next boom is just a couple glossy ads away. It’s astonishing.

  127. This blog is getting populated by those who
    1) Cannot afford a $10 movie ticket, a drink at a bar or some Prozac,
    2) Who has no friends to talk to
    3) delusional or delirious
    4) bored with life
    5) has no life

    Reading the posts from the past few days just makes me wanna throw up.

  128. hey pink panther, give me the name of the SOB who is chaining you down to your computer chair and forcing you to click your mouse onto the miamicondoinvestments link you have bookmarked on your browser. i wont let that unpatriotic bastard continue to mistreat and abuse you like this. how unamerican! you certainly deserve better! :)

  129. Pink Panther — hahaha. Sorry. Personally, I’m stuck in a Spanish-speaking locale right now for work, so I’m just happy to have a place in which I can argue in English for a change. ;-)

  130. Ace, you little moron, you had conveniently forgotten to substarct from your 3% savings accruals the costs of renting, moving between rentals after being kicked out, unreturned security deposits, etc. Add to that inability to enjoy your own furniture, paint your walls in the color of your choosing, and raised eyebrows of any decent chick upon hearing that an old fart like you couldn’t accumulate enough funds to buy own place. That’s got to be worth something too, no?

  131. To Post# 150

    The Ace does not disclose our personal real estate transations or any other financial transactions for that matter, suffice to say that its in the $10′s on millions a year. And he ceratiny does not discuss family matters.

    To Post# 153

    You are correct; The Ace was one of the very very few who predicted the real estate bubble back in 2003, nuth said.

    “The most powerful force in the Universe is compound interest”

    Albert Einstein

    The Ace; fair, balanced and unafraid for over six years.

  132. Pink Panther, I agree with you.
    I myself admit to falling under 4 of the 5 categories you mentioned.
    I won’t say which ones though.

  133. Well if I were you i wouldn’t disclose that either.
    Must be nice living in mom’s basement paying $0 rent.
    I hope for your sake mom is not currently renting.

  134. To Post# 162

    You are correct in some matters so the Ace offers up his profound apologies, not only for forgetting the cost of moving (U-Hual $500.00 tops) but for also forgetting to itemize the maintenance cost to own a house. In 30 years of ownership a typical owner has to replace the roof twice ($20,000 average x 2) the Air Conditioning four times ($3,000 average x 4) plus lawn and pool care, plumbing, gargage door replacement, leaking windows, paint, fix or replace carpets, siding, refrigerator, dishwasher, washing & drying machines, stucco, driveway, landscape, floors, bathroom fittings etc etc; the list and cost of which never ends.

    As for a renter “not having the pleasure” of painting the walls why would he, he would simply let the Landlord have “the pleasure” of doing it for him for FREE LOL. As for his own furniture, we as Landlords do not provide or rent furniture so it matters little to us if our tenants eat or sleep on a bed or dining table that they purchased or on the floor that we provided. And prey tell; if there is the pleasure in doing work for and improving someone else’s property without pay, would you like to be one of our tenants? We will happily supply to you the any color of paint of your choosing absolutely free of charge and while your at it why not install new carpets, a new sprinkler system and a new hot water heater and for all of the above we will gladly provide to you free of charge a bed and a dining table just in case that you do not have your own :-)

    The Ace; fair balanced and unafraid for over six years.

  135. Ace, again, you have forgotten that the owner gets the rent to cover all of the expenses (mortgage, maintenance, taxes ) plus 3% appreciaition for the next 500 years.
    Nothing is free for the poor renter, ever. One would think that even your educational level would suffice to grasp it.
    For the owner on the other hand almost every expense is tax-deductible.
    See how it works?
    That’s why real estate outperformed stocks in Japan and Europe in the last 50 years, and is bound to outperform them in America in the next 50.
    Live and learn from the real master, which would be me.
    The GoodNews.

  136. Post #167

    You are an imbecile, The Ace was not referring to Landlords he was referring to house buyers enslaved for for 30 years.

    The Ace owns hundreds of properties (none between late 2005 and late 2009 during which period he liquidated his entire portfolio and kept his powder dry as indeed he advised all of you on this board to do) and those that he does not sell for a quick profit have a positive cash flow, so please don’t begin to lecture The Ace or his legal team on the intricacies of being a Landlord.

    The Ace: fair, balance and unafraid for over six years.

  137. PS:

    Japanese real estate has been flat for 30 years, flat meaning zero appreciation and Europe has followed the United States into the abyss. Get your facts straight if you are going to question The Ace.

    The Ace; fair, balanced and unafraid for over six years

  138. Good news,

    I am sorry if you think that the New York Times is a funny paper. I don’t get my info form that. People who are really in the game have real inside info. However, I feel that whenever very few people are defending that the market is rebounding, that makes it very silly and sad, considering the real situation.
    As an investor and owner of many properties, in the US and abroad, falls in prices are good for me. However, if you are a desperate seller trying to flip your overpaid condo or a realtor who is not making any money, then you really must be trying to convince you that the good news are all around.
    Or maybe you are right: the good news are all around for people who have cash, can take advantage of the deals that show up on the market , such as the ones The Ace advocates. Unfortunately, for the average American citizen, a lot of suffering is still under way. The Plague, wars and many incidents were overcome as this eventually will, but the ones who walk the talk will come out stronger.
    Crisis creates opportunities. This is what the article in the funny paper serves for. I am sorry if you just saw it as a story about American misery.
    If you want to make real money, look at offshore opportunities. I can tell you that while people lost money in the stock market ( 2008) , mine appreciated in currency funds over 50 % and last year alone it went up 287% in value! Not to mention my properties.
    I must be a real terrible investor. Sorry!

  139. GoodNews said: “For the owner on the other hand almost every expense is tax-deductible.”

    - I am not trying to nit-pick, but that is just false for a home owner.

    - Also, perhaps the property appreciates 3% but there is maintenance/updates etc. which severely erodes this “return”. A renter can invest the $500K instead. I know the $$$ that if I bought the place I rent now more than pays for the rent with interest earned. Plus, I only rent place with top notch decor and furnishings so that isn’t really an issue, at least not for me.

  140. Post 154: As a reader of this blog for many years I can recall vividly recall the Ace predicting $125.00 per square foot in or around 2003 simply because every post that he posted on here then and there where many began with the phrase “$125.00 per square foot and not a penny more” as many can attestify to this fact including Lucas. Somewhere around 2005/06 he began advising everyone to not buy but and I quote “keep your powder dry” meaning cash as $125 per squre foot was coming”. Again, everyone reading this blog during that period will trestify that this is a fact as will Lucas. We love the Ace on this board, when the Ace speaks EF Hutton listens.

  141. Speedy, you loser, This blog started in May 2007.
    In 2003, you probably were washing dishes at cheeseburger baby, let alone reading a blog.

  142. Speedy,

    Could not agree more with you.
    Ace is a great poster and he has sure proved everyone here he knows his shtick.
    Ace, thanks for sharing.

  143. Speedy Gonzalez #174 — Hey, watch it: don’t knock Cheeseburger Baby. I enjoy irreverent comments here as much as the next guy, but let’s not cross the line.

  144. That’s pretty good price per square at the Santa Maria. Anyone hear about air-conditioning problems there? What kind of system?

  145. Ace wrote:

    “You are correct; The Ace was one of the very very few who predicted the real estate bubble back in 2003, nuth said.”

    Can you direct us to where you were “predicting” prices would be $125 sq ft in 2003. Because as Kramer pointed out these condos weren’t even built.

    Speedy wrote:

    “As a reader of this blog for many years I can recall vividly recall the Ace predicting $125.00 per square foot in or around 2003 simply because every post that he posted on here then and there where many began with the phrase “$125.00 per square foot and not a penny more” as many can attestify to this fact including Lucas. Somewhere around 2005/06 he began advising everyone to not buy but and I quote “keep your powder dry” meaning cash as $125 per squre foot was coming”. Again, everyone reading this blog during that period will trestify that this is a fact as will Lucas. We love the Ace on this board, when the Ace speaks EF Hutton listens.”

    I’m confused about how you “vividly” recall Ace making these predictions in 2003 and how he began advising people not to buy in 2005/06 when this blog was not created until MAY 2007! Here’s a link to the very FIRST post:

    http://www.miamicondoinvestments.com/2007/05/12/hello-world-2/

    Ace’s very first post mentioning $125 was not until March 2008. Are you people that ignorant that you can’t remember between 2008 and 2003?!?

    No one here was making any such predictions in 2007. You could argue that Renter Tom (then Buyer Tom) was ahead of the curve but that wasn’t really until early 2008 either.

    And this $125 sq ft prediction is ridiculous when were at about $190 sq ft right now. We would have to fall another 65% to hit $125. Which is even further compounded by the fact that most of the price reductions have take at the lower end of the spectrum. Reducing condos from $450 to $350 or $300 to $200 is NOT going to lower the average price per sq ft. It’s mathematically impossible for the average or median price per sq ft to reach $125, unless south beach condos start selling for $300 sq ft and cheaper condos start selling for $10 sq ft.

  146. I just want to re-state….WHY in the world is valet parking a desirable amenity at a condo building that you would live at, that is, do more than just visit. All it did was save the developer money and cost all future owners a ton in HOA fees to pay these guys. What a stupid pain in the arse. Then, to top it off, some buildings have self-park spaces you would have to pay extra for but still pay for the valet parking via HOA fees. How stupid and screwed up is that?

  147. Gixxer 1000 – I didn’t find this blog until early 2008. I had already positioned myself before then though. I just wanted to buy a nice condo on the beach and walked into this crazy market in So. Fla. What the heck was going on down here? Crazy, fraud, greed, and thieves…..makes it hard to buy something.

  148. Valet service is one of those things that sounds or looks great in a brochure but practically the concept is absolutely terrible. Prospective buyers have some romaticized image of their car being front and center in the condo driveway with valets hustling around at their beck and call, opening car doors and kissing their ass.

    The reality is much different: calling 45 min in advance for your car, scratches and dents, lazy valets, thieves, waiting in lines, etc , etc. Very inconvenient.

  149. Renter Tom,

    I agree with you. You came here looking to buy, did some research and then decided buying wasn’t the best option in early ’08.

    My point was simply that no one here was AGAINST buying anything in ’07, minus a few people that aren’t here. Hind sight is 20/20 and now we all know everyone should have been bailing out in ’06. Now we’ve got all these false prophets claiming they predicted it from the beginning, even as early as ’03 as the Ace suggest even though the condos didn’t exist. And while I can’t say that he didn’t for a fact, I can say that he never predicted any of this on this site that early. March ’08 is the earliest record of this.

    Furthermore his prediction is nothing more than pandering to the hype. Not once has he ever given any sort of information to support his $125 sq ft prediction. Other than his repeated claim that ALL real estate is a bad investment. Which does even make sense because if it’s a horrible investment and prices did go to $125 sq ft then you could easily buy much cheaper than renting which would make it a good investment.

    At the beginning of a war I can predict that there will be 1 million deaths. And as more and more people die my prediction will look like it’s more and more correct. But if the deaths start to taper of at about a half a million as we begin to start exiting the war then I think its obvious my prediction is wrong.

    If he had said (in 2007) “I think increased unemployment, foreclosures and government intervention will lead to an average sq ft price of $125 in 2010″ that would have been one thing. But he basically just said “$125 at some point in the future because I said so”.

    He then uses examples like a foreclosure sales at Uptown Lofts to support his prediction. But he is clearly talking about condos of a higher caliber:

    The Ace /Sep 15, 2009 at 7:58 pm Wrote :
    “Will the Ace retract his three year ago prediction of $125.00 per sq ft for a high end Ocean View Condos you ask; Never”

    $125 sq ft for HIGH END OCEAN VIEW condos. How is everyone not calling BS on this. What high end ocean view condos are even remotely close to $125? And again how is this a three year old prediction when this blog didn’t exist Sep 15, 2006.

    Its like when you see a rapper talking about how rich they are before they’re even rich. If they talk about it long enough then it starts to become true. Someone who started reading this blog in early ’09 reads his statement about how he’s been predicting this for 3 years and they believe it even thought this blog didn’t even exist three years before 2009.

    And why does his claim that he predicted this in 2006 now change to him predicting this in 2003?????

    The Ace /Sep 15, 2009 at 7:58 pm Wrote :
    “Are we at the bottom you ask; no we are not at the bottom we have another 25% nationally to fall and somewhere in the region of 40% to 50% to fall in Miami.”

    Here is another one of bonehead predictions. 50% fall from Sep ’09 prices. But unbeknown to him Case/Shiller’s Miami indexed had not only stopped going down but had started going up. The Miami index bottomed in May ’09 at 144. Then moved higher to 145 in Jun, 147 in Jul and then to 149 where it has held since. As he continues to predict another 50% drop from Sep ’09 prices (which were about $190) prices were inching higher.

    High end ocean view condos will NOT be sold for an average of $125 sq ft. I’ll take it a step further and say that the average condo price per sq ft for all Dade county condos will also not reach $125. And that is no prediction, just an assessment of the current facts.

  150. Honestly, I don’t know what so many people on here gobble on The Ace’s nuts. I’ve thought all along he was an alt-nick or a troll just looking for laughs.

  151. Gixxer
    If you are going to search this site’s archives and cite all the unsubstantiated, unverifiable or otherwise riduculous and preposterous quotes, you have a lot of work ahead of you.

    So you don’t waste any more of your (apparently abundant) time, please recognize that many of the comments on this site, particulary by The Ace, are made in jest, embellish the truth or are laden with sarcasm. I think you are taking this way too seriously. I’m sure there are plenty of wonkish economics blogs out there for guys like you, lacking in the humor department.

  152. Gixxer
    Its about time for you to deconstruct, analyze and cross-reference comments #192-195 while simultaneously failing to comprehend that the joke’s on you.

    Sucker.

  153. Caribbean

    So can we assume by this article that they were re-sold to another bulk buyer? Suspicious. And “Many” of the remaining 59 units are “SAID” to be under contract. Very strange…very strange.

  154. Drew the Ace is a clown. I’ve done some research and found he is a pimple faced preadolescent living with is mom an 2 sisters in a northwest suburb of Miami. He has a difficult time relating to his contemporaries at the local middle school so he spends most of his time on Internet blogs. Apparently he has strong interest in Real Estate, Economics, Gaming and Star Wars. He spend most of his time Visiting blogs and websites relating to these subjects. He often post comments under several different handles and have even been known to complement himself using various screen names.
    He has some entertainment value but this value is often short lived and he quickly becomes quite annoying. It is best to ignore him, any attempt to engage him will only encourage his moronic behavior.

  155. sorry “with is mom an 2 sisters ” should be “with his mom and 2 sisters ”
    must have gotten some food in the keybords.

  156. While Gixxer 1000′s over analysis and time consumed on it may be “excessive”, you’ll have to cut him some slack, after all, the weather these last two months has been terrible so he couldn’t go out and ride his motorcycle. :-) I do appreciate that he took the time to read the entire blog, interesting I’m sure and look forward to his analysis of AJ!!! LOL

    By the way, The Ace et al pretty much posts the same stuff over and over and over again. We get it, so perhaps just one post about it is sufficient instead of repeating the same stuff under several names then patting yourself on the back under different names. We get it. Just sayin’…… Thanks Ace BUT, you know, economy in posting is worth more than 10 posts!

  157. He are just a few of the Real Estate Blogs that The Ace is a regular contributor and advisor; fair, balanced and unafraid for over six years so please reserach and enjoy.

    AmericaPANIC
    Angry Bear
    Angry Renter
    Bank Implode-O-Meter
    Big Picture
    Blown Mortgage
    boom 2 bust
    Bubble Blog News
    Bubble Markets
    Bubble Meter
    BusinessWeek Hot Property
    Calculated Risk
    Case Shiller Graphs
    Charles Smith
    CNBC Realty Check
    CondoVulture
    Contrarian Chronicles
    Countrywide Foreclosures
    Deflationland
    Denninger Market Ticker
    Dirty Scottsdale
    Dollar collapse
    Dr. Housing Bubble
    Drudge Report
    Fed Up USA Protest
    Financial Sense
    firedoglake
    Flippers in Trouble
    Foreclosure Data
    Gawker
    Gold equals money blog
    Gold Prices
    High Probability kid
    homegain blog
    Housebubble blog
    Housing Blog Recap
    Housing Bubble Bust
    housing bubble hall of shame
    Housing Doom
    Housing Fear
    Housing Panic
    Housing Tracker
    Housing Watch Price Tracker
    Housing Wire
    I Can’t Sell My House
    Infectious Greed
    Inventory Overload (realtor)
    Irvine housing blog
    itulip
    J-walk blog
    Jim the Realtor
    Kitco
    Kunstler
    LA Times Bubble Blog
    LA Westside Bubble
    Lasner on Real Estate (OC)
    Lawrence Yun Watch
    Long Island Bubble
    Marin Bubble
    Media – BusinessWeek
    Media – Financial Times
    Media – New York Times
    Media – News Hounds
    Media – Olbermann Blog
    Media – TV Newser
    Media – Wall Street Journal
    Media Matters
    MiamiCondoInvestments
    millionaire mommy
    Mish’s Global Economic
    ML Implode-o-Meter
    Moneyfiles Bubble Blog
    Mortgage Fraud Blog
    Mortgage Insider
    Mortgage Ledger
    mortgagefit portal
    My Two Cents Blog
    National Mortgage News
    News: Reddit
    Northern New Jersey Bubble Blog
    NYC bubble
    Paper Economy Blog
    Paranoid Ben’s boring blog
    Patrick.net
    PeakOil – Life After the oil crash
    Phoenix Flippers in Trouble
    Piggington
    PIMCO Bill Gross
    Politics – C-Span Videos
    Politics – Dick Morris
    Politics – First Read
    Politics – FreeRepublic GOP Talking Points
    Politics – Huffington
    Politics – Kos
    Politics – Malkin
    Politics – National Journal
    Politics – Politico
    Politics – PoliticsTV.com
    Politics – realclearpolitics.com
    Politics – RedState GOP Talking Points
    Politics – The Note
    Politics – TPM Cafe
    Portland Oregon Bubble
    Prudent Investor
    Ramen Recipes for Realtors
    rancid truth
    Real Clear Politics
    Real Estate & Housing Outlook
    Real Estate Bloggers
    Real Estate Decline
    Redfin.com
    Republicans Are Assholes
    Sacramento Landing
    Scottsdale Sucks
    Seattle Housing Blog
    SlackerRevolution
    SoCal Bubble
    Soot & Ashes – New from HousingPANIC
    Speculative Bubble
    Stocks – Blogging Stocks
    Stocks – Bob Brinker
    Stocks – Cramer Mad Money Videos
    Stocks – DealBreaker
    Stocks – Denninger
    Stocks – Financial Times
    Stocks – Forex expert
    Stocks – I Bank Coin
    Stocks – Market Ticker
    Stocks – Money Week
    Stocks – Motley Fool Caps
    Stocks – Option Addict
    Stocks – Options Trader
    Stocks – Portfolio.com
    Stocks – RealClearMarkets
    Stocks – Seeking Alpha
    Stocks – TheStreet.com
    Stop the Mortgage Bailout
    the greenspan mess
    The Superficial
    Trulia
    Truth about mortgage blog
    UK House Bubble

  158. I fail to see how reading through the archives is excessive. It’s not like its a novel. It took a couple of hours over a couple of nights. By the way I’m here in DC so yes Renter Tom not only can I not ride my bike, but I was also stuck in the house for a week as we just had the biggest snow storm in DC history here. And given the state of the market I would like to be as well informed as possible before I make a purchase.

    It was actually very interesting to see how the commentary changed and rationalized what was happening over the years. And by the way spending 6 hours while trapped in your house reading the archives seems like less a waste of time than constantly posting random useless stuff on a blog for 3 years.

    As for my analysis of AJ he actually seemed like more of a sensible guy back then. I just think that once he committed to 1800 he started over rationalizing his decision.

    As for the commentary here I’m all for a joke as much as the next guy. And I think there is ample opportunity for us all to have a laugh as AJ’s expense. But I guess at some point considering I’m looking to buy and thats why I’m here, I’d like some discussion of the market with actual facts. And every time the ACE and his followers (which I guess are in his head) post the whole discussion goes sideways with a back and forth about $125 sq ft which is absurd.

    Imagine how helpful this site would have been to Renter Tom if when he came to this site all the discussion was dominated by the Ace posting constant predictions that the market was going to $1000 a sq ft and Lucas was NOT publishing things like inventory supply and trends.

    And I didn’t think discussing actual trends, price per sq ft, Miami’s case/shiller index, foreclosures, etc is advanced economics. And I would assume Lucas didn’t create this blog as a self help group for people who want to share their feelings.

    So to Lucas I say “Please” take the time to publish some more threads like your condo trends report that you used to publish every six months. These are the the things that set you apart and show that you understand the market. Any dumb@ss Realtor can publish the top 5 closed sales and then have have random people argue about whether they are legal or whether black beach week is destroying south beach or that high end condos will sell at $125.

    Your analysis of these issues (right or wrong) show that you have a deeper understanding of the market and not just a sales pitch. Why have prices stop falling, do you think we’ll double dip? If I’m looking at places around $200k is it worth it for me to pull the trigger before the tax credit expires considering thats about 4% of the price and mortgage rates are expected to inch higher? This blog and your new iphone app is great but without this type of analysis it only shows that you understand technology and not needs of me as a future buyer.

  159. Gixxer 1000 — Unless you’re prepared to pick up and move from D.C. to Miami tomorrow, I can’t see any urgency to buying. The only real argument is whether there will be a double dip; no one except the most ardent Realtards ™ is predicting Miami’s condo prices will spike *upward* anytime soon. Thus, when factoring in the carrying costs, it’s still prudent to wait as long as possible before making a play.

    On a more general level, people have come to expect far too much from this site. Trying to analyze the r.e. market on a day-to-day basis is akin to being a day trader in the stock market. I’d bet the average reader of this blog could come here only once every 2 weeks, or even once every 4 weeks, and not have missed anything of note and, thus, not be any worse for wear. (And before anyone asks (or begs!) me to take my own advice, no such lunk. I’m stuck in a Spanish-speaking locale for work, so I have a lot of time to waste online.)

  160. MMT, #196, Hilarious and spot on.

    Ace,
    After reading the list of all the blogs that you partake in, I am actually getting worried for you and the people around you. I am afraid one day you are going to go postal. I wish help arrives to you sooner than later and I really hope that you do not have any access to small planes and such.

    Here is some bright news by the way:

    Improving Prices May Herald Housing Recovery
    Kelsey Swanekamp, 02.23.10, 12:50 PM EST
    S&P/Case-Shiller reports higher prices for seventh-straight month, but annual prices are still falling.
    The housing market seems to be on the mend, at least according to a closely watched gauge of prices that recorded its seventh-straight monthly increase in December.

    The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city Home Price Index showed a 0.3% improvement for December over November when seasonally adjusted. The non-seasonally-adjusted numbers showed a 0.2% decline.

    Home prices are still below year-ago levels. The December figure was down 3.1% from the same month in 2008, but that was better than November’s 5.3% year-over-year decline. For the fourth quarter the index fell 2.5% from a year earlier.

    Even with the annual declines, the string of monthly increases is generating some flickers of confidence that the hard-hit housing market has stabilized.

    Elie Hirschfeld, president of Hirschfeld Properties, said the housing market has already begun to stabilize in New York City. “In previous recessions values went so low that you could virtually give away units,” he said. But in this recession he doesn’t see this as the case. “Pricing has gone below bubble-burst level, but it’s settling in to fair value.”

    Earlier in February the Department of Commerce reported that housing starts were up 2.8% in January to a seasonally adjusted 591,000 units, an encouraging sign that home builders have enough visibility on future demand to increase construction. (See “Housing Data Improves, Long Road Ahead.”)

  161. Joe,

    I’ll be attending graduate school at U of M in the fall so I will be picking up and moving probably in July if I decide to attend.

    I don’t anticipate prices going up much either, but that’s not the whole picture for me. Some of the units that I’m looking at the carrying cost and the price to rent are about the same. If I could clearly rent for cheaper than buying then I would simply choose to rent. Although admittedly I am leaning this way just to keep the freedom.

    But at one of the places that I’m looking at, I calculated that with $20k down my total payment with HOA and taxes would be $1800. That’s not including any tax credit that may expire soon. I see the same units can be rented for $1850-$2400. I’m sure there is probably some room to negotiate with those prices. Now if this unit rented for $1200 that would be a no brainer and I’d simply rent and save the $600 a month towards a larger future down payment. But even if prices stay flat I would actually be in a worse position two years from now when the place is still worth $200k or maybe 1-2% higher, no tax credit, and higher interest rates. So instead of getting it now and having a $1750 payment because of the tax credit and lower interest rates, I buy in 2012 and my payment is $1915. In this case the $20k isn’t going to earn enough interest to offset and because the price to rent is similar to the price to own I wouldn’t be saving any money. My other option would be to downsize into a smaller apartment for the two years and save money that way, but my fiance is getting tired of us being in small spaces like the one were in here in DC. We just moved out of a nice 1 bedroom at $1800 to a crappy 1 bedroom for $1400 helping us to increase our down payment.

    As far as people watching the market day to day I agree. I would actually prefer a post every other week with one being a monthly update and status of the market. Maybe a couple of interesting threads mixed in for a total of about 4 informative post a month. I don’t think this is to much to ask and considering there are a decent amount of people like me that move to Miami without a particular Realtor in mind I think its a prudent way of attracting new clients. As of now the only Realtors I know of are Lucas, Samir (who loves pictures and twitter) and Kevin (who seems to spend more time posting about Miami Social).

    I’ve also got plenty of time because my next big project doesn’t start until late March and I’ve still got to look busy at work. And besides I’m definitely moving in July to either Boston, NY, LA or MIA depending on which school I choose so honestly my brain is already checked out from work.

  162. Gixxer,
    I will forgive you for taking pot shots at me only because you have written 2 very good and meaningful posts #200 and #206.

    regarding your “As for my analysis of AJ he actually seemed like more of a sensible guy back then. I just think that once he committed to 1800 he started over rationalizing his decision”
    It is not me who is over rationalizing but it is you who is over analyzing things.
    But I do not fault you. A year or so ago even a smart guy like gables commented “AJ is already underwater on his new apartment” without knowing anything about my situation (gables, i will not hold that against you). Wild Bill keeps fantasizing about the disintegration of my building and Pace Park getting submerged under water.
    All my protestations, reasoning, analysis and point by point proof to show why 1800 Club is the best Value for money in the market in terms of amenities and location versus carrying costs seems to fall on deaf ears as people only chose to hear what they wanted to hear.
    I got a good deal and I grabbed it. It has been 2 years since and so far no comparable unit sold for less than what I paid!
    Same goes for DJ. He got a good deal and he grabbed it. Every unit after him sold for much more than what he paid.
    So I am not over rationalizing or justifying my purchase. If anything, I can always get out of 1800 and get back what I paid with out losing a penny. But why would I? IMO (and a lot of others) 1800 Club is one of the best buildings in Miami and has one of the best locations in all of South Florida (not just Miami, as said in a few Real Estate sites, who are not supposed to openly favor one place over the other).

  163. Gixxer if you are coming to Miami for grad school and haven’t lived here in the past, you should definitely rent for at least the first year regardless of the rent/buy math.

    Miami is a very different place than what many outsiders seem to think, and well worth it to rent for a year just to really get the lay of the land. Areas which seem great on paper or during a visit may be terrible for your needs.

    The Miami market certainly won’t be going up in any huge way any time soon, so rent a place you like and take your sweet time pondering your long term buy/rent situation.

    If you have lived here in the past, then the above is all moot.

  164. AJ,

    This is exactly why I say you over rationalize your position. You bought at 1800 club and you like it. Good for you and good for DJ and his unit. But “one of the best buildings and locations in all of South Florida”? That’s where you lose a lot of people. There are like 20 rappers that all claim to be “one of” the best rappers that ever lived and while I’m sure they have fans who will agree what does that really mean?

    And this doesn’t take away from the FACT that at current prices it is clearly cheaper to rent than to own in 1800 club. This is something you yourself have admitted.

    Besides DJ actually posted his unit number. You can clearly see that he paid $206/sqft in 08/09 and the same units are going for an average of $225 now. But somehow when you look at 1800 club you don’t see ANY units that were purchased about 2 years ago that are selling at the same price or higher now. If you’re so adamant about proving your point then provide a unit number (or at least a line number ) so we can see that your type unit is doing better today than two years ago. Units two years ago were selling for an average of $420 and now they’re selling for about $300. The sales prices are public information we can all clearly see what you’re saying is false.

    Which is besides the fact. YOU are happy in you’re unit and that’s all that matters. Why do you have to prove to everyone else that you’ve gotten a good deal. If it makes you happy it makes you happy. Other people are just pointing out that you could have probably bought it cheaper today. Is it the end of the world, no. Heck unless it’s a 1 bedroom I probably can’t even afford your unit at today’s prices so why would you care what I think. Even if you lost 20-30% your still doing better than me.

  165. Gixxer 1000 – Congrats on grad school. Enjoy. Been there, done that (more than once). Narrow down to the best ones then choose the one that best fits your needs regardless of local.

    I will say, there are still worries out there….as Robert Shiller stated today, I completely concur. We have MASSIVE, UNPRECEDENTED fed govt intervention in the housing market, artificially low & sustained interest rates, fed only buyer of MBS, perhaps rising unemployment, fed govt (and states too) with massive deficits for years placing a drain on available investment capital, debt burdened consumers and households reducing available first home buyers and stifling move up buyers, massive REO’s and pending distressed properties… There are huge headwinds and Robert Shiller was right to be have “a real worry” and “that home price might drop substantially from here forward” due to “a lot of factors that are unforecastable … there substantial downward risk right now … uncertainty is at a maximum right now … wobbly …it could go either way”. See his interview on CNBC.

    Unless you find a great deal….why gamble, esp. using leverage?

    The continued difficulty I find is once a place is narrowed down — location, unit, view, price, etc. you then take a look at the HOA and find trouble….board members trying to get out (esp if ALL of them) tells you something…. Argh!

  166. Gixxer 1000 – AJ doesn’t live in his unit…DJ does. I give a lot more credence to DJ. Sorry AJ, but being a shill on 1800 Club is overdone.

  167. This is what I told a relative in the later part of 2006 who wanted to buy a second home in LV…”What is the worse case scenario? Home price could drip 50% and if that happens we’re all in trouble and home prices may be the least of our worries…” C-S says down 55.9% in LV….the relative’s home is not down that much, perhaps 25%, since in a very stable area relatively speaking. Fortunately, they are prudent and conservative in their finances so doesn’t affect their lifestyle one bit. Apparently I was being too bullish back then! Live and learn, live and learn…

  168. 48% of residential properties with mortgages in Florida are underwater….WOW. Nationally, it is 24%. Note, this only applies to residential properties that have mortgages… Banks are gonna get screwed!

  169. Gixxer,
    If you zero in on NYC and do your grad school there and want to buy a place in NYC, get in touch with me. I just might have the right place for you.

  170. Wow…..in Nevada, outstanding residential mortgages and HELOCs are more then the value of all the residential real estate…on net, the entire state of Nevada is underwater on its residential real estate. That is incredible.

  171. gixxer, in my opinion you can buy a 1B in miami for similar cost to renting, so if you are thinking longer term buying is best. i am in the market for a 2B, and as of now it still seems cheaper to rent than buy, although the spread does seem to be narrowing. taxes are going to be a big concern over the next few years. our government (state and city) is really moving into the red. and our tax revenue is dominated by property taxes. makes for a risky proposition as you buy upward in the housing market. 1B is less of a tax risk than 2B due to this issue.

  172. case/shiller seems to be turning over. will it slowly rise, flatline, or double dip? interesting times. expiration of housing credit certainly clouds our ability to understand driving forces of the market.

  173. About 30% of homes with mortgages in Florida are 25% or more underwater. The short sale/foreclosures are a marathon, not a race, which will continue as unemployment stays high.

  174. Renter Tom (me) said: “Wow…..in Nevada, outstanding residential mortgages and HELOCs are more then the value of all the residential real estate…on net, the entire state of Nevada is underwater on its residential real estate. That is incredible.”

    - I am trying to find the proof of this since I can’t believe this. Perhaps the blogger on another site meant the mortgages and HELOCs in Nevada are more than the value of all the residential real estate in Nevada that HAS a mortgage??? So take the post with a grain of salt until I can dig deeper… It just is too far fetched!

  175. (MIAMI, FL) — Single-family home and condominium buyers are racing to buy depressed-price properties in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties, according to a new report released today by Condo Vultures.
    Purchase contracts on residential resale product in the tricounty South Florida region surpassed the 20,000 threshold on Monday, marking the first time in at least 15 months that pending sales reached that level, the report states
    “Buyers are stepping up their purchases of resale product in South Florida,” says Peter Zalewski, a principal with the Bal Harbour, Fla.-based real estate consultancy Condo Vultures, LLC.

    http://www.realestatechannel.com/us-markets/residential-real-estate-1/real-estate-news-south-florida-condo-sales-market-peter-zalewski-condo-vultures-miami-home-sales-south-florida-condo-sales-miami-condo-sales-2079.php

  176. RT, are you posting some nonsense, then getting blown away by just how nonsensical your own nonsense is and as a result promising to research it further because you finally understood that your nonsense cannot possibly be true?
    Your posts #216 and #220 are absolutely priceless. Have you ever tried to actually think before clicking on that “submit” button?

  177. Gixxer1000,

    If you think that you’ll buy anything decent in Miami with only $20k down, you’re mistaken. First of all, these low prices of $130k at places like Museum or Brickell area are inside deals that you’ll never get. Second of all, it’s not easy to get mortgage for property in Miami (decent area) with just $20k as down payment, which is 20% of only $100k. Third, why would you leave one of the best academic centers like DC (and surroundings) to study at rip-off UM? You’ll be spending at least $70k there. Are you rich but have only $20k to put down? Or are you going to enter World Depression II deep in student debt with high rate? This is from a guy who was offered 1/2 tuition paid by scholarship at UM but still decided to attend another university that offered more value.

    Too many people watch CSI Miami, Miami Vice, MTV, etc, and think it’s reality. Lots of the beautiful girls you see at clubs or street are expensive escorts, especially from Europe or Latin America. Most of the luxury cars you see around are leased by indebted people who live for the moment and think that old age will never come. I happen to know many of them who fake this luxurious lifestyle. Now is the wave of broke Californians arriving. Once you live here for many decades, you pick up all the BS and cycles.

    To clear things a bit, I have $80k cash for down payment to pick another property, but can’t get anything decent for over a year. I already went through 4 useless-order taker-Realtards, with no avail. All the good deals don’t even hit the MLS. Of course, they’re willing to sell you something overpriced, if you’re dumb enough to buy it. Then the sky is the limit. That Realtor.com and Craigslist thingy is just smoke and mirrors, bait-and-switch, fantasy. The only people getting deals are the smart money with lots of cash, or fraudsters, the rest is getting overpriced stuff. See, just because you have $20k as down and the building is Fannie approved, it doesn’t mean that lenders are willing to risk. Why do you think that are so many rentals and not many units being offered for sale? It all came to a halt; this market is being manipulated and the puppet masters don’t want to let it go for the real price. I don’t know what they’re waiting for, bc when this rate snaps back up all prices will sink. No fancy math here: interest rate will skyrocket eventually as home prices will sink to match purchase power. Don’t believe me, you’ll have the chance to see how it works if you try to buy in Miami. Everything is rigged in America now. Welcome to Matrix.

  178. AJ said, “Gixxer,
    If you zero in on NYC and do your grad school there and want to buy a place in NYC, get in touch with me. I just might have the right place for you.”

    AJ, if the market is so wonderful for sellers the way you repeat like a parrot, why are you having hard time to sell your POS box in NY City, to the point of hunting buyers with only $20k down on blogs like this? No no no need to explain big shot; it’s self explanatory. You better sell it quick bc the bills will pile up, jet-setter. lol

  179. “Too many people watch CSI Miami, Miami Vice, MTV, etc, and think it’s reality. Lots of the beautiful girls you see at clubs or street are expensive escorts, especially from Europe or Latin America. Most of the luxury cars you see around are leased by indebted people who live for the moment and think that old age will never come. I happen to know many of them who fake this luxurious lifestyle. Now is the wave of broke Californians arriving. Once you live here for many decades, you pick up all the BS and cycles.” – - Enzo

    Ouch! True, but “ouch!” none-the-less.

    I could not agree more. Miami is largely all hat and no cattle. Having lived here for 10 years, I could not agree with you more. The people, venues (don’t get me started on the restaurants) – - everything right down to its service-based, tourism-centric economy – - Miami is all form and little substance.

    But then again, who cares? Miami is destination, a means to an end, not an economic center. Never has been, never will be.

    scriv

    ps: Your crack about the luxury cars was spot on. But don’t forget, the majority of the flashy cars, particularly the vintage race cars are also kit-cars: cars that someone built to replicate the real thing. For example, I saw a what appeared to be a 1959 Porsche 356 A 1600 the other day. (Or a Porsche of a similar vintage) Closer examination revealed it was a kit car – - a replica. P-R-E-T-E-N-D-E-R.

  180. gables,

    I’ve actually started to turn my attention toward 2 and 3 bedroom townhomes in Aventura. One of the main reasons is that I’m originally from the Midwest and I really miss having a garage but I’m to busy for a traditional house. Aventura is the only place I’ve seen where it’s close to the water but still has places with personal garages. The places that I’m looking at fall between $170 and $250. And when you look at total carrying cost they seem to be inline with the rents in the area.

    As far as taxes, that is a big concern of mine. I understand why they wouldn’t want to use foreclosures and short sales as comps in the beginning but it’s starting to get ridiculous when you see dozens of condos sell in the same unit for about $100k and the assessed value is $300k. This is another reason that is pushing me towards sitting on the sidelines for a year or two.

    AJ,

    Thanks for the heads up but if I go to NY I will definitely be renting. Same thing for Boston. The combination of weather, personal space and cost of living make the Northeast very undesirable for me, part of the reason for me leaving DC.

  181. Gixxer,

    Watch out for the townhomes in Aventura. A lot of the projects with townhomes are flops and the quality of the construciton is really cheap.
    There are nice townhouses in the area or near-by, but they do not go in your price range.

  182. Does anyone know a true Realtard or have any good stories about them? I love the guy called “Miami Andy” who buys a full 30 minute block of TV time doing lame impressions and jokes @ 2AM thinking that will somehow generate business.

  183. Enzo,

    While I understand what you’re saying like most people here I think you’re views are a little bit extreme. While its definitely harder to get financing today it’s still possible. I’ve already been talking with the mortgage company that has the mortgage on my rental property back home and they seem to think I’m OK. I’m looking at payments that are only 16% of my gross income. And because we both have paid off cars our total debt would be only about 25% of our gross income. The majority of the pricing I’m getting is from properties already listed in the MLS. We can argue about whether or not these are good deals but I’m simply looking for a nice place to live in. And considering rents are bringing in enough to cover carrying cost that’s more than acceptable to me.

    As far as attending UM, if I do so it will be because of scholarship $$$ and the ability to work during school. These two things combined make it almost $100k cheaper than attending the more prestigious others. I also plan on staying for a while and honestly think I can do better networking from UM while in Miami than trying to find a job from MIT or Columbia. If I wanted to stay up north then it would be a no brainer and I wouldn’t think twice about UM, but salary is only one aspect of life. USC falls in the middle but has a great network out west. We haven’t decided if we would like to live out west yet.

    As far as the whole CSI, Miami image I honestly think people in Miami are more concerned with it than other people. I mean seriously, what educated professional moves to another city based off of the image on TV. DC is nothing like how its portrayed on TV either, who cares. Why does it matter to me if people are driving around in leased luxury vehicles??? I’ll tell you what does matter to me. The fact that with the household income I’ll have in Miami I’ll be able to afford a larger house with better finishes in a more desirable area close to a nice beach. I’ll have more money left over to travel, buy a boat or whatever hobby I want.

    Here is a place where we were renting a jr one bedroom for $1800:

    http://www.thechaseatbethesda.com/

    It’s in Bethesda which is a suburb of DC but it’s only one metro stop away. If we were to stay here $250k wouldn’t even get you a one bedroom condo. Low $400′s for a one bedroom condo and were not talking about separate shower and tubs, bidets, etc. And this isn’t even in the city. The nice places that are comparable to what you get in Miami start in the $700′s. So while my household income will decrease about 20% my actual purchasing power will triple.

    Then you have to factor in personal quality of life issues. My fiance grew up in Italy and is accustomed to living by the sea. Just being able to go to the ocean once a week for her is worth a lot. And don’t even get me started on the cold weather. Again these vary from person to person. But I could care less that they film CSI with those ridiculous colors and its sunset 70% of the time. I’ve been to Miami enough to know that I enjoy the beach. If anything CSI gives a very negative picture of Miami. If you watched that show you’d think that rich white people were getting slaughtered every day. That show is the single reason my future mother-in-law doesn’t want me to take her daughter there, which is funny because when you compare violent crimes, Miami is statistically safer than DC. And in DC you really cant separate yourself as much.

    But I digress. I don’t disagree there are still many overvalued properties out there but I think a lot of people just get caught up in the hype. Most were caught up in the hype of making money in Miami real estate on the way up and now many people are caught up in the hype of bashing real estate on the way down. Especially the people that only see it from Miami’s perspective. There is always two sides. As housing decreases in Miami, this only makes it MORE affordable.

  184. Joe,
    I already said Peter Zalewski is a turncoat.

    Enzo,
    Very nice post (#225) and Very true.
    Regarding your next post, I never said it is a sellers market or anything similar. Don’t put words in my mouth. Regarding my NYC box, I have not yet seriously started marketing it. I have not listed it or put it on MLS. Bills are not piling up. I just decided to simplify my life by getting rid of some boxes.

  185. Gixxer,

    If you plan on attending UM, the best location for you would be Brickell.Bigger bang for your bucks.
    Good central area, with access to UM by Metrorail in just 4 stops. It takes you less than 10 min to be there. The area has really evolved in the recent years and should become better in the near future. It is also close to downtown, Coconut Grove and Coral Gables. 10 min from the airport.
    You can be in South beach in less than 10 min by car. Waterviews are possible in Brickell too ( bay and not beach, even though you are very close to key biscayne beaches ).
    Aventura has some properties closer to the beach, but you would still need a car to get to them and your commute to UM would be a hassle.
    I don’t know how familiar you are with Miami, but the traffic down here is getting pretty nasty, and jams are a constant. Public transportation is awful if you have to commute long distances.
    In your price range, you can get inside a nice new condo with great ammenities in the Brickell area.
    Something to consider.
    PS: I am not a realtor and I don’t live in Brickell. Just in case someone is wondering.

  186. Gixxer

    My two cents regarding a purchase in Miami. I am just a believer that everyone who is open minded and especially if still young should live for a year or two or more in certain areas just for the experience. NYC comes to mind as well as a large California city either LA or San Fran. And who wouldn’t want to live in Paris,Rome,London or Sydney for the experience of it all. Aside from the pessimism one might here in all of the chatter here and elsewhere Miami is a young vibrant city that is still evolving. What appeals to me is living here and being able to watch it evolve. Kind of like living in Chicago, Boston, NYC over 100 years ago. So if the fiance likes to be next to the ocean the why not Miami in addition to your saving 100k in tuition etc. AS someone who knows Miami fairly well -my two cents is to purchase an approx. 900 sq ft 1 bedr in a brand new building in downtown-Brickell-Park West-Pace Park area. You would be in a Brand new apartment – ten minutes to the airport – with Metro-Rail – u could be at UM in about 15 minutes and then u are only a ten minute drive over to South Beach. You should be able to swing a nice view new building brand new for about $250,000. Good luck.

  187. Carlos,

    Can you name any specific townhomes to avoid in Aventura and the reasons why?

    Also regarding Brickell, thats where I looked at originally and a few of the current grad students live there. But I also have to factor in both me and my fiance’s job. We also have friends in Ft Lauderdale so its a nice midpoint. Plus I wouldn’t actually be driving to class during rush hour as classes are mainly held during the afternoon, night or weekends.

    But Brickell is still a possibility, but at that point I would likely rent. I was thinking maybe rent for a year in Brickell and then once I change jobs after graduation then focus on a specific area.

  188. Dang it looks like Carlos and I posted a similar reply. Except that I am not a realtor hehe. Not that ther is anything wrong with that :-) .

  189. Kramer,

    Between my current job and the military I’ve been fortunate to live in many places. I’ve already done NY and now DC so I think I’m done with the Northeast. The only real wild card for me is LA because I’ve never lived out west. But a warm climate is a given for where ever I go. My in-laws just purchased property in Montenegro and I’m sure my fiance will demand we go back to Europe to visit family and I’ve already spent time in the Mediterranean and middle east during deployments.

    What actually what attracted me to Miami is not only the location. I’ll be studying real estate development and urbanism which I’m obviously very interested in. Miami as you mentioned is still evolving. They are beginning to take the concept of urbanism seriously as shown by the passing of Miami21. This is one of the few places where you’ll be able to actually implement many of these ideals quickly. I would be able to see real changes in say a span of 10 years. This isn’t really possible in most places.

    But I’m still a midwest boy at heart and I’ve got to get out of a 1 bedroom apartment. If we have to sit in a one room box and look at each other all day we’ll probably end up killing each other. Plus I like doing things like working on my motorcycle or changing my own oil so a garage would be great. I can swing a one bedroom while were in transition but not for another 5 years.

  190. Gixxer

    I would avoid Aventura if heading to UM, definitely stick with with Brickell/Downtown or maybe Coral Gables/Coconut Grove if a garage is that important

    Brickell/Downtown’s central location and easy highway access are a huge asset. I can be on the 95 on-ramp within 3 minutes of starting my car, including the time it takes to get out of the parking garage. UM is 15 minutes away, South Beach is 10, MIA is 10, FLL is 30-40.

    Aventura looks like a great location on a map, but if you have to be out and about in South Florida, easy highway access is critical. Getting from Aventura to 95 could take you longer than the entire trip from Brickell to UM. I would strongly advise against moving to Aventura if you are going to be driving to Coral Gables every day.

    The benefit of Coconut Grove or the Gables would be that you could have a private garage. There are plenty of condos/townhouses there with individual garages. Not as centrally located but if a garage is important they could be an option.

    These are my 2 cents as someone who actually lives and works in Miami.

    Out of curiosity, what are you studying at UM?

  191. Gixxer

    Regarding your graduate work in urbanism I find intriguing considering the relative age of the City of Miami. So as not to repeat myself here you may want to read my posts #170 and #172 in the last blog dated Feb, 9th,2009 – “The Top 5 Distressed Condo Sales in 2010. They somehow got lost with “Comment Awaiting Moderation” at the time.

  192. An Aventura -> UM campus commute will still be a nightmare “during the afternoon, night or weekends”. Trust me if you are planning on driving to campus 3 or more times/wk you do not want to live in Aventura. W/ zero traffic exceeding the speed limit it will still take you at least 35 min.

    Coral Gables SFH or condo is your best bet, especially if you’re going to buy. Values hold better compared to other South Fla neighborhoods. And the quality of life is much better than othere areas.

    Then again, for a transplant I think its interesting to live on South Beach for one year only. By the end of the first year you will be ready for something else, but you’ll have a good time living there but only as long as you limit your miamicondoinvestments.com usage.

  193. Gixxer,
    Long Long ago I looked at Aventura, for exactly the same reason as you described!!!
    That is it is the exact midpoint of Fort Lauderdale and Miami. I told myself, I will be able to use both airports and also I can take up a job in either Port Everglades or Port of Miami.

    But after I took a tour of Aventura, I ran for my life. The reasons have been discussed ad nauseum in the past on these pages and no need to revisit them again.

  194. A while back I worked in Aventura around Biscayne and 190 street. The traffic is a nightmare up there regardless the hour. It used to take me 10 to 15 minutes just to inch my way to get on Biscayne Blvd. and then another 15 minutes to reach I-95. Drew was being conservative. Your ride from Aventura to UM will be anywhere from 45 minutes to an hour. And much more if there is a traffic tie up.

  195. Gixxer,
    listen to this post. aventura will not make for a pleasant experience. the commute itself will be insane. having lived in DC and around NYC, i do know traffic. and MIA is a nightmare. its hard to get good townhomes in this area-they do not appear to be popular. out west by the everglades you can get a nice mix of townhome/sfm with garages. but again traffic issues can be quite a bear.

  196. Drew,

    “Then again, for a transplant I think its interesting to live on South Beach for one year only. By the end of the first year you will be ready for something else, but you’ll have a good time living there but only as long as you limit your miamicondoinvestments.com usage.”

    This was actually the original idea. Sort of like a been their done that kind of thing. But how is parking? We left my fiance’s car in Ohio because we have no place for it here (unless we pay $240 to park it) and she really misses having access to a car.

    I doubt I’ll have a job that will pay me to sit around for months between projects so I probably wont be on here as much. But I’ll try to stay just as committed and post for years even though I’ll probably never buy anything just as my many mentors here have taught me.

  197. Krames,

    FYI..I am not a realtor.

    Gixxer, I have visited several townhomes in Aventura in the past since my parents wanted to move to Aventura. They thought it would be calmes and enjoy the nice ammenity of having a big mall near-by.
    After having visited the area and experienced the traffic and the local crowd, they moved down to SoFi, since I live in the area and like it a lot.
    I guess you should come down and decide for yourself.
    Depending on the time you may wish to stick around Miami, it might be good to purchase something, even though, in the Brickell area, I would strongly favor rentals.
    Too cheap to be missed and you don’t have to worry about increases in HOA’s, fixes in your condo. It will also give you time to adjust to the city and discover an area you enjoy best with your fiancee.
    As you can see, many people are telling you the same thing.
    Locationwise, the biscayne corridor does not differ so much from Brickell, but the brickell area is far more developed and will offer you a much better quality of life.

  198. This blog is funny. All of the shills talk about how strong the Miami r.e. market has become, and then Gixxer 1000 mentions he has $20,000 for a down payment and people start begging him to make contact. LOL.

    ——

    Gixxer 1000 — As everyone else has said, you’d be out of your mind to live in Aventura if you’ll be attending the U. of M. That trip/commute can be a nightmare at any time of day and on any day of the week. The fact that you even mentioned it as a serious option tells me you haven’t spent a whole lot of time in Miami (which I’ve long suspected). The whole “friends in Lauderdale” idea sounds good, but after you’ve been stuck on that parking lot known as 95 a time or two, you’ll cut back on those trips considerably.

  199. Gixxer,

    You can find a 1 bd with parking on an average building on the beach for 1,500.
    It all depends if you prefer the beach in a simple building or Brickell/downtown in newer buildings with more amenities.

  200. AJ said: “Bills are not piling up. I just decided to simplify my life by getting rid of some boxes.”

    - You and 50% of America, yep, no bills but selling assets… LOL. Good luck on your next cruise ship DJing assignment. Gotta love those “fun ships”.

    Gixxer 1000 – Trust the people that know the traffic. To get from Sunny Isles Beach to 95, it take longer then I’d have hoped so to get to FLL, I just take Collins/A1A which is faster if that tells you something. If you buy something that you plan on selling in a few years, just rent…make your life easy, there are plenty of deals out there. I take it you’re in architecture or engineering and getting a master’s in architecture??? Tough market for archi’s though…

  201. To everyone regarding the traffic,

    The last time I came to visit UM I also took my fiance to visit several neighborhoods. We stayed with friends that live in Plantation. The trip from Aventura (near the mall) to UM took 35 min.

    I’ve already stated that I also have to consider my job as well as my fiance’s job as well. Driving 30-45 min to school twice a week for a year isn’t going to kill me. 45 min to work is considered good in DC for DAILY driving. Right now my fiance rides with me to my job which takes 20 min, where she then gets on the metro for 20 minutes only to then walk from the metro to the embassy which takes another 15 minutes. Then I have to wait at work for her to turn around and walk the 15 minutes back to the metro after work take the 20 minute metro ride back to my job where we then ride the 20 minutes home together. And when its 20 degrees outside it really sucks.

    With that being said I posted multiple times that I’m also considering other areas for the duration of grad school.

    I will no doubt be back to Miami before I decide. We’ll drive around (again) and maybe this time I make sure to do it during rush hour even thought I won’t be driving with traffic during rush hour.

  202. Gixer-as a UM Graduate who lived off campus in the grove-former Bethesda MD resident and business owner-former SOBE resident, recent downtown owner/evacuee, and currently a condo owner in Aventura I will concur with all here that you are crazy to even think of an Aventura–UM commute-the other day at 2pm it took me 1.25 hrs to get to the U-as I said I am alumni-anyway also agree that the “friends” in lauderdale will become one in the same as your friends up north as it will take you as long to drive there as it would to fly to DC.lol Downtown has alot to offer you, good prices metro mover/metrorail, possible water views, lots to do and as a student of Urbanism perhaps you can do your thesis on the real growth/ownership/ and occupancy as far as the numbers are concerned for the downtown as the DDA has their heads up their asses, the Miami Herald just sells newspapers and the politicians will say anything to get elected…As far as living on the beach-try it you may like it buy hard to go to class with all that ass and yeah yeah I know you are coming down with another dont think that sin city hasent corrupted any of us…my advice rent and if you chose to buy put the property in your name…oh and as we sau Bienvenidos a Miami….

  203. Joe,

    Man I don’t know what your problem is. Everything is a “gotcha” moment with you. We disagree about life in general, let it rest. I drove between Aventura and Coral Gables several times. How many times do you have to drive the same trip before you become knowledgeable about it? As I stated it took me a little over 30 minutes. Add 15 minutes for sever traffic. 45 minutes is a reasonable drive to me. I live in cities where 45 minutes is the average time to anything. The fact that your over exaggerating of the duration of the trip lets me know you rather just repeat hearsay instead of going out and actually timing it.

  204. RT, You moron, When I said I can take up a job in either Port of Miami or Port Everglades, it is not for a DJ in a cruise ship. That was before I changed my profession. When I was the Operations Manager at the Port of New York and New Jersey, I contemplated moving to South Florida and take up residence somewhere midpoint Ft. Lauderdale and Miami so that jobs in both ports are an option.

  205. and also why is it so hard for you to understand if I want to sell 2 out of my 4 props? You dont even have one place that you can call your own and supposedly 6M in the bank!

  206. 1. “While its definitely harder to get financing today it’s still possible. I’ve already been talking with the mortgage company that has the mortgage on my rental property back home and they seem to think I’m OK.” –> By all means, come on over to Miami to see for yourself.

    2. “As far as attending UM, if I do so it will be because of scholarship $$$ and the ability to work during school. These two things combined make it almost $100k cheaper than attending the more prestigious others. I also plan on staying for a while and honestly think I can do better networking from UM while in Miami than trying to find a job from MIT or Columbia.” –> That tells me that you’re coming to Miami with the HOPE to find a good paying job, while attending one of the most expensive universities in the country. If you couldn’t find a good paying job in DC, don’t expect to find one here. It would help if you were Hispanic, because of the Latin bias here. Are you fluent in Spanish? Good luck.

    3. “And because we both have paid off cars our total debt would be only about 25% of our gross income.” –> Again, do you BOTH have SECURED jobs in Miami already? If you do, what kind of employer puts everything on hold, just waiting for you to make a decision, no matter how long it takes? Have you seen the median income for Miami? My wife’s company had several pay cuts since last year. Hundreds from her office were laid-off; all with advanced degrees from great universities, many bilingual. And she’s in a pretty good sector. Now, if you’re planning to get a government job, you better be Latin or Haitian.

    4. “honestly think I can do better networking from UM while in Miami than trying to find a job from MIT or Columbia.” –> Again, are you Hispanic? Networking for good jobs in Miami is only for Latin people or jocks. Are you a jock? So you didn’t want to go prestigious and job-guaranteed MIT or Columbia, to come to Miami, even though it costs the same?

    5. “The fact that with the household income I’ll have in Miami I’ll be able to afford a larger house with better finishes in a more desirable area close to a nice beach. I’ll have more money left over to travel, buy a boat or whatever hobby I want. ” –> Ha! Helloooo, CSI and Miami Vice! Do you plan to do all this with $20k and by graduating deep in student debt from UM, during World Depression II, plus securing a good paying job that you still don’t have? Do you really think that you’ll get a 6-figure job in Miami? Unemployment rate in Miami is 12% and climbing. There are thousands applying for the same job, with better degrees than one from UM. Dream on. You must believe in Obama’s unicorn and rainbow recovery, eh?

    6. “It’s in Bethesda which is a suburb of DC but it’s only one metro stop away.” –> So you’re leaving Bethesda, the area with one of the highest incomes in the country, to try your luck in Miami? Please, by all means, come on over.

    7. “So while my household income will decrease about 20% my actual purchasing power will triple. ” –> I tell you what, if nothing works like your CSI/Miami Vice rosy scenario plan of living in a spacious home close to the beach + big boat + jet-setting around the world 24/7, you can always become an order-taker realtor.

    8. “buying in Aventura”. Those Aventi units you see are just for show. Is it even Fannie approved? Have you checked if any of your assumptions are Fannie approved yet?

    9. So you plan to increase your quality of life by living in Aventura while commuting daily to work and to UM, from your spacious home near the beach that you plan to buy with $20k down? Got it!

    10. Don’t believe me, by all means, come on over to try your luck in Miami. If you couldn’t make it in Bethesda, Miami must be a better fit for you. You can always become another realtor, gay spender, or Eastern European who just get by like old age will never come. Come on over to Will Smith’s video to live la vida loca. Suzanne researched this, you can do it. (That line is for you Ace)

  207. As I was reading this crap again today, I was thinking it would be fu*king hilarious if someone on this blog organized a Miamicondoinvestments.com Party where all posters are invited to show up and those little nametags must be worn, i.e. “Hello, I am Renter Tom” or “Hello, I am Joe”. God that would be great. And the multiple alias guys could wear several, i.e. “Hello, I am The Ace” with “Hello, I am Pablo Picasso.”

    I’ve got an image in my head of what everyone looks like so it would be interesting to compare. For instance, for some reason I think AJ looks like Guy Ritchie (British, tries to appear younger than he is). And in my head Joe kinda looks like Timothy Geithner. And for some reason I think Renter Tom is like 60 yrs old.

    Lucas maybe you could put together such an event at some vacant, foreclosed penthouse condo that you have keys for. I think it would be an overwhelming success and very amusing.

  208. I don’t know if its just me or what. After walking around Aventura Mall me and my fiance walked to the garage, got in our rental and then timed the trip to UM. Now admittedly I stopped timing once I made the turn off of US1 on to Dickerson, so maybe add a couple more minutes to park and you’re looking at 37 minutes. The other times I checked the clock while driving and then checked again when I was in the vicinity and it was about 30 minutes. But going from 37 minutes which I seen with my own two eyes and 75 minutes is a bit of a stretch. With a severe accident I can see, but daily I just don’t considering I drove it multiple times.

    Here’s the deal. The next time I’m in Miami let’s do a Miami Condo Investment meetup at Aventura Mall. We’ll drive it together and if I’m delusional I’ll buy whoever drinks and if I’m right you’ll buy me drinks. But lets make an exception for some serious traffic accident, I’m talking about average daily commute times.

    Condoswindler,

    “Downtown has alot to offer you, good prices metro mover/metrorail, possible water views, lots to do and as a student of Urbanism perhaps you can do your thesis on the real growth/ownership/ and occupancy as far as the numbers are concerned for the downtown”

    I don’t disagree with this. But I’ve also got someone else in the mix as well. As previously stated I may be able to get by downtown or south beach for a year or so.

    Renter Tom,

    My degree would actually be a Masters in Real Estate Development and Urbanism. The degree is from the school of architecture but I’m not an architect I’m a construction manager. After graduation I would probably work for some variation of a Developer/Owner.

  209. Drew, fine idea! I’ve been thinking it would be cool to have a MCI get-together. I nominate Shuckers, since it’s right across the street from me, the drinks and food are good and cheap, plus it’s right on the water, so all the folks that talk a big game can put their money where their mouths are by pulling up on their yachts and cigarette boats.

    BTW, I envision AJ being indian with a british accent, RT being 60 years old, with an abundance of gold jewelry and silk shirt unbuttoned past his chest. The Ace, I’m pretty sure he doesn’t even exist and is actually a bot that just spams various blogs with automated comments.

    Lets do this…..who wants to suggest a time and place.

  210. I always pictured AJ as a South Asian guy for some reason, like a Ben Kingsley type.

    Gixx you seem to be very naive about the situation on the ground in Miami. Listen to the people who are here already, we know of what we speak. Not sure why you need to be so short with people who are giving you good advice. I’ve driven in Bethesda/Montgomery County before, but if seeking info, I would defer to the locals there who drive every day rather than on my own limited experiences .

    People seem to think that Miami is like every other big US metro, but with nice weather. This really is not the case, particularly with regard to the economy. Miami is not for everyone. Enzo’s post really hit the nail on the head.

    Best of luck

  211. Gixxer said, “I don’t know if its just me or what. After walking around Aventura Mall me and my fiance walked to the garage, got in our rental and then timed the trip to UM.”

    Hey, don’t pay attention to some of us who actually have been living in Miami for decades and who studied at UM. Well, I dropped UM for much better UF, even though I had 1/2 tuition offer from Donna Shalala. I had just come from studying French at Sorbonne in Paris, looked around UM and met the folks, but said no thanks. Go Gators!

    “The degree is from the school of architecture but I’m not an architect I’m a construction manager.” Ha! I rest my case…moving on.

  212. Enzo,

    “Hey, don’t pay attention to some of us who actually have been living in Miami for decades and who studied at UM. Well, I dropped UM for much better UF, even though I had 1/2 tuition offer from Donna Shalala. I had just come from studying French at Sorbonne in Paris, looked around UM and met the folks, but said no thanks. Go Gators!”

    What does UF have to do with driving from Aventura mall to UM???? Does the fact that you live there mean I just imagined when I ACTUALLY drove there in 35 min???

    “The degree is from the school of architecture but I’m not an architect I’m a construction manager.” Ha! I rest my case…moving on.”

    Rest your case on what. I also applied to Columbia, MIT and Harvard and both Columbia and Harvard offer the degree through their school of architecture. What’s your point?

  213. Gixxer said, “I’ve actually started to turn my attention toward 2 and 3 bedroom townhomes in Aventura.”

    If you’re able to buy a 2 or 3 bd townhouse in Aventura, with only $20k down, tell me bc dinner will be on me. Anything you and your fiancee want at Fogo de Chão. Rodizio + buffet + all the caipirinhas and Brahmas you can drink. Hell, you can even bring AJ along just for the laughs. I liked Porcão better, especially the one in Ipanema, but whatta hell.

  214. Gixxer 1000 — Even if you planned to ignore us, the smart course of action here would have been for you to simply have said, “Thanks for all of the great advice. I’ll be sure to take it into consideration. Maybe Aventura isn’t such a great idea after all.”

    Instead, you’re taking a strident tone against about 10 people who have lived in Miami for, let’s say, a combined 100 years or more, and pretending that your *one* trip from Aventura to UM is dispositive. #fail

    ——

    Drew, DJ — I’d show up at a MCI party for sure, but I won’t be in Miami for at least another 3 months. I’m also guessing there would be a lot of no-shows.

    Regarding the Timothy Geitner quip, I don’t look anything like him, plus I’m about a foot taller and at least a decade younger. (I *am* a gringo, though.)

  215. Well Joe would never show up for this party anyway. But I could have a hella lot of fun showing up and impersonating him and pretending I was Joe – name tag and all. Oh man – don’t get me started :-) ” Has anyone got a key to the secret door on the top floor of Continuum”?

  216. Gixxer said, “I also applied to Columbia, MIT and Harvard and both Columbia and Harvard offer the degree through their school of architecture. What’s your point?”

    No point. Don’t get your degree at Harvard or MIT; come to live in Miami instead to buy your big house near the beach + big boat with $20k down. Moving on…

  217. Regarding the AJ Fest at Pace Park, I’m good for it but you need to set it up way in advance, as I spend a lot of time between Miami and Latin America. Let me know. BTW, The Smart Money has to come..lol

  218. Pesky little headlines don’t go away:

    ” Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) — Sales of new homes in the U.S. unexpectedly fell in January to the lowest level on record, a sign that an extension of a government tax credit may not be enough to rekindle demand.

    Purchases declined 11 percent to an annual pace of 309,000, below the lowest forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of economists, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington.”

    See, new home sales is one of the most important economic indicators, because new construction provide so many jobs. Invest wisely, prepare for the worse.

  219. Joe,

    “Even if you planned to ignore us, the smart course of action here would have been for you to simply have said, “Thanks for all of the great advice. I’ll be sure to take it into consideration. Maybe Aventura isn’t such a great idea after all.”

    That’s exactly what I did.

    Here is where I said I’m still considering Brickell:

    “But Brickell is still a possibility, but at that point I would likely rent. I was thinking maybe rent for a year in Brickell and then once I change jobs after graduation then focus on a specific area.”

    Here’s where I said I still was considering south beach but asked about parking:

    “This was actually the original idea. Sort of like a been their done that kind of thing. But how is parking? We left my fiance’s car in Ohio because we have no place for it here (unless we pay $240 to park it) and she really misses having access to a car.”

    Here is where I indicated I had to also take me and my fiance’s job into consideration and the fact that school is only one year. If we both work in Aventura EVERY day what sense would it make to choose to live near UM when I’ll only be there one year:

    “I’ve already stated that I also have to consider my job as well as my fiance’s job as well. Driving 30-45 min to school twice a week for a year isn’t going to kill me.”

    None the less I repeated that I had already repeatedly said that I would look at other areas during grad school:

    “With that being said I posted multiple times that I’m also considering other areas for the duration of grad school.”

    I also in the same thread said that I would drive around again and check times:

    “I will no doubt be back to Miami before I decide. We’ll drive around (again) and maybe this time I make sure to do it during rush hour even thought I won’t be driving with traffic during rush hour.”

    That sounds to me like I understand what everyone is saying and somewhat AGREED with their opinions but I also had other things to consider. But I’ll spell it out for you since you are very slow.

    Thank you fellow Miamicondoinvestment readers for your insightful post about the drive times between Aventura. I previously conducted my own assessment of the drive time which resulted in about 35 minutes. I understand that during my assessment I didn’t not run into much heavy traffic. I’ve have made an adjustment to 45 minutes for additional traffic. Now many have indicated that this drive can be an hour. As adults there is no reason to argue over 15 minutes. Maybe I just ran into great traffic and I speed a lot, who knows. Regardless this time frame is acceptable to me. However if my fiance’s job ends up being closer to Coral Gables then I agree Brickell as well as other areas are better and I will probably move there as MENTIONED REPEATEDLY.

  220. Gixxer, from the UM campus to the nearest highway is a 15 minute drive in the best of times. you can easily spend 25 minutes a day moving from I95/US1 intersection to UM. Now add the other 20 miles of the commute to your drive time. Just saying, its going to be a long drive. splitting the difference from downtown/brickell is wiser. in addition, i completely understand how coming from midwest you want a home. but trust me, take advantage of living in a city environment for a year or two. not long term, but its kind of fun for short term committment. sfh in miami are truly boring. rent a high rise pad for a couple of years at $2k a month and enjoy life!

  221. Gixxer, here’s the scoop that you should have heard from the getgo, I-95/US1 are incredibly rush-hour dependant. Driving the route at off-times or on the weekends is a non-issue. I’ve done SoFi to Fort Lauderdale Airport in 22 minutes, BUT at 4AM.

    However, if you need to take I-95 South in the morning or 95 North between 3PM-7PM, you are ABSOLUTELY SCREWED. Plan on 90 minutes+

  222. JL,

    I don’t disagree, I think there has just been so many messages posted that what I’m saying is getting looked over.

    “Driving the route at off-times or on the weekends is a non-issue.”

    That’s exactly when I’m saying I would be driving. Driving South at 6pm and North at 10 pm or on the weekends.

    But I understand what everyone is saying.

  223. Joe,

    FTL airport to SoFi is less than 30 miles down 95. If you drove at about 70 mph you’d easily get there in about 22 minutes without traffic. I’ve driven down 95 into downtown during non peak hours going at minimum of 70 mph a dozen times.

  224. Visionary #266
    No, I don’t, but that’s funny. I think I’m about 20 yrs younger than House.

    The reality is, if an MCI party happened, nobody would show up. People love the anonymity of the Internet and once you lose that, much of the intrigue is gone.

    Its just too bad we can’t have some hot women (or at least dudes pretending like they’re hot women) more involved on this site.

  225. on a different note, is there any info out there on how many units at Infinity have sold? and what the current going rate is (rental and sale?)

  226. Enzo, again a great post. a bit of cynicism is evident but very apt.

    I hear you regarding being a latino to snag a decent port job. While I was in New York waterfront, 90% or so were Italians. It was a tough job as they resented taking orders from a non Calabresi. But I held pretty good on my own.

  227. Man you guys are something else.
    the guy said he has someone else to consider. Maybe he is willing to do the long commute so that his future wife doesn’t have to. Maybe he is better able to cope with the Miami traffic than is wife is. What is so hard to understand about that. The man said he is not making this trip by himself he even mentioned that he does most of the driving in DC, he drops his wife off and she takes the train. Read in between the lines dummies! I’m guessing the wife is not as an experienced driver as he is and he would rather save her the hassle of dealing with the nut jobs on the roads S.F. is famous for.

    Enzo, why crush the young man’s dream? He does sound a bit idealistic about Miami but hey no need to trample a young man’s dream.

    Joe, u are a duche? The guy kept repeating he is not moving by himself and he is considering other places.

  228. Makes Me Think — Yes, I’m a “duche,” whatever that is. Hurling misspelled insults earns you a #fail.

    That aside, you seem to be selective with your criticism. I only made two very brief comments to Gixxer 1000 in this thread today, the first of which was very friendly advice confirming what 10 other people had said. The fact Gixxer 1000 has very thin skin isn’t my problem.

  229. Gixxer 1000 post #283 — Not to be a stickler for detail, but since you’re constantly fisking others’ comments here, it’s actually a little over 30 miles from FLL to the closest part of SoFi. A driver would have to sustain a minimum of 82 miles per hour from point to point to cover that distance in 22 minutes. With traffic lights and the causeway, that’s highly, highly unlikely even under the most optimum of conditions.

    (And, wow, 291 posts in this thread. This has to be a new record.)

  230. Friend of AJ — Yep, we know. Just kept it a secret is all. I pictured AJ as an Italian New Yorker about 37 years old with dark buzz cut hair that likes “jammin” for his “entertainment” with a history of living in Islip, Bronx, Miami Beach, etc. But what do I know…. LOL ;-) Why two single men buy a place together as joint tenants with rights of survivorship as an investment condo is beyond me. There are better investments gentlemen.

    By the way, the only person I really researched was “Lara” just to verify one of her investment properties for results. Without “outing” her (don’t know if she would even care) I complimented her on doing OK in a difficult investment climate. What she posted was accurate and as such really lent to her credibility in my book.

    AJ said – “RT, You moron … and also why is it so hard for you to understand if I want to sell 2 out of my 4 props?”

    - AJ, I’m NOT the one who keeps making ridiculous posts PROMOTING residential real estate as an investment THEN tries to dump 2 of “his” (might not even own them alone) 4 properties to “simplify my life”. Come on, you’re not “stupid” and neither are we. By the way, I’m telling Sarah Palin on you, stop making fun of morons since they weren’t dump enough to invest in condos in Miami at the bubble (i.e., early 2008 like, um you?)… LOL

  231. By the way, a MCI party would be funny. My parents are barely into their 60′s and I’m the youngest of the kids so the guess on ages is more than a tad off, I don’t wear jewelry, not even a watch. The party could be like a game show where you have to guess who is who…now that would be funny.

  232. RT, I appreciate your effort to keep my privacy. I have nothing to hide but taking in consideration a very colorful and wide spectrum of creative minds here it could have been a bit uncomfortable for me.

  233. “Enzo, why crush the young man’s dream? He does sound a bit idealistic about Miami but hey no need to trample a young man’s dream. ”

    Since when giving an opinion based on experience is “crushing anyone’s dreams”? I say it like it’s, baby. Now I find an insult to someone’s intelligence to say that Harvard and MIT offered scholarships but moving to Miami to attend UM and buying a 3 bd townhouse in Aventura with only $20k is a better and viable option. That’s a dream alright.

  234. RT, I know you posted as Friend of AJ. I know there is no difference between the likes of you or Ace. The funny thing is that the few people on this blog who actually met me and know me are laughing at your simplicity right now. Half of Miami is owned by New Yorkers. So this is your Eureka moment? If you so badly want to know who I am, just ask. Other decent people emailed me, we exchanged numbers, I talked to them and even met some of them. Some became good friends. I used to wonder who RT is and one day I would like to meet this guy and maybe even have a beer with him and laugh at all our jabs at each other. But that is so yesterday dude.
    “good news” (I swear, that is not my handle) summed you up very correctly and described you to a T – he said “RT, are you posting some nonsense, then getting blown away by just how nonsensical your own nonsense is and as a result promising to research it further because you finally understood that your nonsense cannot possibly be true? Your posts #216 and #220 are absolutely priceless. Have you ever tried to actually think before clicking on that “submit” button?”

  235. AJ, geez thanks for making me spill my coffee all over the keyboard, after seeing your Facebook page. Guess where did AJ take his picture? Seating at Pace Park, of course. LMAO

  236. AJ – I did NOT post under “Friend of AJ” because I don’t really care that much and you’re not my friend so the post would have been a lie. Chatting over a beer wouldn’t be a problem with me but you really need to get less touchy about criticism…YOU bought the properties and KEPT being a shameless shill WHILE simultaneously (and are…must be priced too high) trying to sell two of the four. If I recall correctly, I gave you my opinion and advice on selling your properties over a year ago…but you seem to be a bit stubborn. Oh well, but seriously good luck with your properties BUT please don’t lead others to buy properties in this market…people’s lives are very seriously negatively affected when they make bad investments, esp. when using leverage. Face it, you got bitten by the real estate bug and fancy marketing and it ended up being not the best investment…fortunately you’re not going to be seriously hurt by whatever losses you may incur…many many many others are not so fortunate, have families to support, and they don’t have a Mommy Warbucks to help with some cash when they are in their late 30′s. Just sayin’.

  237. AJ – Check with Lucas…the post from Friend of AJ was not from my IP address nor probably even from the same computer operating system or browser. I’m not your enemy despite some joisting from time to time…

  238. Enzo – I have to admit I was LMAO about the profile picture too…at least he puts his money where is mouth is though and loves Pace Park and there aren’t any hobos in the photo shoot so perhaps, maybe, he’s right that it has been cleaned up?

  239. Oh please, I am the last one to tell people to go and buy in this market for an investment. Go back and read my posts for the past 2 years. I have been saying and I will continue to say that “there are fantastic deals everywhere especially if you wanna go and live in it. Don’t try to time the bottom, best deals are always found well before you reach the technical bottom.”
    You think I am selling my props in desperation. So be it. I am not here to impress you. And I won’t be apologetic either for taking money from my mom. That is what a family is for. You wouldn’t understand such bonds.

  240. This damn website is the gift that keeps on giving. I hate myself for coming here so much, but I just can’t help it. It’s like a train wreck crossed with a clown convention.

  241. “I don’t wear jewelry, not even a watch” RT: You really should break off a little of that 6 mil and pick up a Rolex (Not that I’m biased or anything!) LOL

  242. So Joe are you a vampire or do you just set your alarm clock for 4am to check the site? Or maybe since you mentioned you’re working “in a Spanish-speaking locale” you’re working the overnight shift driving a forklift at a Goya warehouse in Mexica City?

    Or maybe in the DR assisting with the Haiti earthquake reliefe efforts? However, based on your attitudes toward dark-skinned humans, probably not…………………..

  243. RT – “the only person I really researched was “Lara” just to verify one of her investment properties for results”

    You are full of Sh*t!
    Are we to believe you “researched” Lara’s info but never AJ’s? Get Real, I looked up the info from the condo reports link posted here last week out of cuorisity. I’m sure others did as well but I didn’t find it necessary to go beyond a casual look.

    -”Why two single men buy a place together as joint tenants with rights of survivorship as an investment condo is beyond me”

    What does that have to do with the price of tea in china?

    - “I’m not your enemy despite some joisting from time to time”
    Then stop acting like an enemy. I guess you are the type of guy that stab a freind in the back while smiling in his face and telling him how great a friend you are.

  244. Enzo,

    I like how you make seeping broad assumptions about me that aren’t even true to make a point. I’ve be fairly open here as I honestly don’t care what an anonymous internet blog reader thinks, however I understand that I could capable of misunderstanding something and would prefer to hear the criticism. But to you assumptions here is the problem:

    2.”That tells me that you’re coming to Miami with the HOPE to find a good paying job, while attending one of the most expensive universities in the country.”

    First I’m not coming to Miami in the hope of getting anything. My fiance and I are currently working with executive search companies to relocate. Right now we have a few options but nothing for sure. IF I do not find what I’m looking for I will likely NOT attend UM. The main reason for attending UM is for 3 reasons. 1) We have friends and family near and this is where we ultimately want to live 2) scholarship makes it cheaper 3) Being able to work makes it even cheaper.

    As far as UM being expensive, it’s not more expensive that any of my other options. So I really don’t see the point.

    3.”Again, do you BOTH have SECURED jobs in Miami already? If you do, what kind of employer puts everything on hold, just waiting for you to make a decision, no matter how long it takes?”

    It’s not hard. We’re looking for our jobs to start in Aug. They don’t have to put anything on hold. Since my job revolves around projects starting and stopping it’s very easily to look and see if they have any projects where they can place me in Aug. We do the exact same thing with my company here in our DC office. In fact my next project doesn’t start until March. It would actually be cheaper for them if they simply got rid of me and then bring someone in around March but its usually better to keep project managers that you like on staff even though it burns into you overhead. It’s the same thing with architects.

    4.”Networking for good jobs in Miami is only for Latin people or jocks. Are you a jock? So you didn’t want to go prestigious and job-guaranteed MIT or Columbia, to come to Miami, even though it costs the same?”

    Again it wouldn’t cost the same. I’d likely graduate from the more prestigious schools with a little over $50k in debt. I’d graduate from UM with $0 debt. That freedom gives me a little bit of flexibility to where I go. Most likely I would have to stay up north and take a $100k job to pay of my debt. Whereas from UM I could afford to take an $80k job if I liked it more.

    5. “Ha! Helloooo, CSI and Miami Vice! Do you plan to do all this with $20k and by graduating deep in student debt from UM, during World Depression II, plus securing a good paying job that you still don’t have?”

    Again I won’t be coming to Miami without a job in hand. And as mentioned earlier I would graduate UM with $0 debt.

    “Do you really think that you’ll get a 6-figure job in Miami? Unemployment rate in Miami is 12% and climbing. There are thousands applying for the same job, with better degrees than one from UM. Dream on. You must believe in Obama’s unicorn and rainbow recovery, eh?”

    Actually I do. I’m currently negotiating salaries in the $70k range right now. And this is with them knowing I’ll need to leave work early two nights a week. The average salary for the the positions I would be qualified for after graduation is about $95k. But again since I wouldn’t have to worry about school debt I’d be willing to take $80k for the right position with the right company. If there are no jobs then there are no jobs, I won’t argue with you. But it seems odds that both me and my fiance were able to find preliminary positions in a market where there are no jobs.

    6.”So you’re leaving Bethesda, the area with one of the highest incomes in the country, to try your luck in Miami? Please, by all means, come on over.”

    Yes. We have high incomes here but a high income isn’t everything. Again a luxury one bedroom condo in Bethesda would run $700k. I could easily get the same thing in Miami for $250k.

    8.”Those Aventi units you see are just for show. Is it even Fannie approved? Have you checked if any of your assumptions are Fannie approved yet?”

    Actually the Aventi is Fannie Mae approved. It was approved 12/30/09.

    9. So you plan to increase your quality of life by living in Aventura while commuting daily to work and to UM, from your spacious home near the beach that you plan to buy with $20k down? Got it!

    Actually yes. To get a 2 or 3 bedroom condo anywhere near the price of what I could get one for in Miami (even the $400k nicer ones) I would have to move out to Rockville or Gaithersburg. My daily commute time would be over an hour. My fiance would continue to shut down for a quarter of the year because she hates the cold. I’d have no access to a beach (unless you call Ocean city a beach). If the $20k is that big of a deal then I’ll simply rent a one bedroom apt (which will probably cost less and look nicer than what I live in now) and continue so save $1k month until I reach whatever amount I need.

    10. “Don’t believe me, by all means, come on over to try your luck in Miami. If you couldn’t make it in Bethesda, Miami must be a better fit for you.”

    Why does our desire to move to Miami to be closer to family and friends, enjoy better weather, have a larger house etc. mean that we couldn’t make it in Bethesda. We’re young educated professionals with a household income over $100k. Last time I checked that put us in the top 15% of American households. Then add the fact that she comes from a family who only immigrated to this country 10 years ago with nothing and I also come an impoverished inner city community and we are proud of where we are in Bethesda.

    And after all of this I’ve already said that UM was an option. To be honest if I don’t get the position I want I will most likely go to school up north while she heads south and stays with friends for a year and then I would simply transfer with my “prestigious” degree. It’s just not that big a deal to me. Do I think those school will help me more, yes. I just don’t know if its worth $100k more. I’ve usually made the majority of my contacts working on the executive boards of community organizations and not by the name of the school on my degree. Again if I wanted to work up north without a question I wouldn’t have even applied to UM.

  245. Makes Me Think – AJ gave the impression that he alone owned the real estate. The fact that he doesn’t own it 100% by himself (titled equally among two people) causes me to pause, after all, he always posted my my my, not our our our. He bought into the 1800 Club property with another person. I feel misled. Go back and read his posts…

  246. -”Why two single men buy a place together as joint tenants with rights of survivorship as an investment condo is beyond me”

    would you have been less misled if it were a man and a woman buying a place with rights of survivorship?

    Come on man stop the bullshit! You are transparent, we see right through you.

  247. I also recall AJ saying he didn’t have a mortgage….blah blah blah. But if he bought a $400K condo at the start of 2008 with a $320K mortgage, went into it with another person (not alone), and now the property has a tax appraised value close to the mortgaged amount….just saying. It appears he went into it as an apparent investor-flipper (he bought it on a flip) and is now a floplord….just saying. A knife catcher who is on the verge of being underwater makes all of his shill posts about 1800 Club pretty obvious now…. just saying.

  248. Moreover, if the co-owner with a middle eastern Indian name is just an investor friend (explains trips to Indian) then it makes it even more clear that AJ & friend were just flippers since they weren’t going to live in a 934 s.f. condo together later in life….maybe if they were in their 20′s or early 30′s maybe…. Just saying…someone wasn’t being forthright. But then again this is Miami.

  249. DJ —- It gets better!

    $650/month tax, $500/month condo dues, $1900/month mortgage payment ($320K assuming 6% fixed for 30 years) (total $3050/month out of pocket)….Samir signed as witness….AND the new owners (AJ & buddy) signed a Second Home Rider stating “Occupancy. Borrower shall occupy, and shall only use, the Property as Borrower’s second home. Borrower shall keep the Property available for Borrow’s exclusive use and enjoyment at all times…”

    But, but, but….it’s a rental.

  250. Enzo,
    I checked the profile you mentioned. That is not the AJ I know. Last year I met AJ at the 1800 Club. I am from New York too and asked his help regarding some RE I had in mind. He showed me his unit and we also looked at a few other places. Regarding his unit, it is not generally what he talks about (the high floor etc) in this blog. The apt looks very beautiful, It is a 2BR loft like unit and actually on the lower floor but with a very nice view of Pace Park. I really liked his unit. He has a British origin girlfriend which probably explains his frequent use of “flat” and “arse”. But one thing I noticed is the lack of any kind of evidence to show that he is a DJ or he is remotely involved in any DJ business. On one hand he seems to know everything about running the operations of a large seaport and this other guy you mentioned is nothing remotely close.
    I am suspecting that AJ might be using references of a friend or a person he knows to remain anonymous. But that is totally his choice. I would not reveal anything else as obviously that is what AJ wants.
    Renter Tom,
    I agree with Makes Me Think. I think you are being really mean. This kind of stealth job will not win you anyone. I think AJ gave out more information on this blog than you have at any time. We do not even know if you really are a millionaire. Even if we assume that AJ lied about his profession and his actual unit, that does not take away anything he ever said. I will let AJ answer this if he wants to (AJ, you do not have to answer anything as you owe nothing to me or anyone else on this blog).
    All I can say is he was a very gracious host, hospitable and very friendly. I am happy that I knew him.
    AJ,
    I think you probably know who I am and eventhough we have not kept in touch, I still remember the 2 days you have been so nice to a stranger who is twice your age. Keep it up buddy.

  251. If you buy something on May 15, 2008, there isn’t enough time to HELOC your equity back out as the sh****t hit the credit fan soon after. So you rent out the place, get out the pom pons and hope for the best.

  252. Sorry Montclaire, but AJ has jumped all over me many times, claimed I was a fraud, etc. etc. etc. Well, now we know the truth. AJ claimed he was a DJ, later DJ business, and that same person is that too. No point in arguing. As if I car his GF is British or not. My post was that he bought the condo as a flip with a friend, not to live in now or later as he claimed.

  253. Guys this is my frist comment on this blog,

    I have been reading this blog for about a year, 4 months ago I purchased a new condo at infinity at brickell for me live in as perm home.

    I am an end user- NOT a realtor – NOT an investor – NOT a salesman for Infinity at brickell. I mangage large tech and non-tech prorgams and projects for corporations, I work nationally and international. This condo is my home and my home base. I own no other properties.

    I know ALOT about infinity at brickell and most of the other newer condos in Miami and Miami Beach. Since I spent 2 years reseaching differnt condos to buy. During that time understanding the restate market in Miami has become an Hobby of mine.

    I know I have seen a few comments on this blog concerning infinity at brickell so I am very happy to explain the deal I got on my place and any other info that someone may have concerning buying a condo at Infinity.

    PLEASE GUYS – I WILL MAKE LOTS OF GRAMMER AND SPELLING ERRORS on thos blog, so please don’t make comments about my bad grammer and spelling.

    Rather please lets focus on the fact that I have some good and valid and honest informaiton concerning infinity at brickell that would help other folks to determine if they want to buy a condo there or not.

    I notice that more and more there are alot infighting on this blog bewteen some of you. That is fine, but count be out on that stuff, I rather keep my comments constructive.

  254. lesson to all,
    That’s why you should never hold title to RE in your name if you are not claiming homestead exemption. One of the advantages of putting RE in a LLC. You have all kinds of creeps looking into your personal life (No offense RT). Own nothing but control everything.

  255. Makes Me Think – There is a difference between looking into someones’ personal life and uncovering what I consider “untruthfulness”. As I said, I looked into one of Lara’s transactions to see if what she said was legit, it was and I valued the credibility of her posts ever since. But what AJ said and what the apparent facts show are nothing but stunning. Don’t demand being in the spotlight if you don’t want people to stare! Certainly, AJ wanted to be in the spotlight and stayed too long. Those damn paparazzi … oh wait … that’s all staged too! LOL

  256. Montclaire,
    Yes I remember you my friend. Lara, you and one other person from this blog are the only ones who visited my flat. Thanks for that wonderful parting gift dinner also. I do not forget.
    I have been reading the possessed rantings of RT for the past one day and quite don’t know how to react. I don’t know if I should be angry or sorry at this guy. But I will let him stew in his own juices. I think hate is the biggest destroyer. He is consumed by so much hate, it is totally blinding him.
    Regarding your post, you were right about a few things and not so regarding some others. You have my number and call me if you want. But you are 100% right when you said – I do not have to answer to anyone on this blog as owe nothing to any body.

  257. Montclaire,
    I agree with you. I don’t know AJ and sometimes I think he is a bit of a nut about pace park and 1800. I also think it is rather obvious he is a decent guy. Sometimes he makes statements that leave you scratching your head but I don’t think he is a shill, I believe he genuinely believes that 1800 is one of the best buildings in Miami and he sees the potential of the area. There is nothing wrong with that, I admire that quality. Even if he thought his building was not the best I see nothing wrong with trying to get like minded owners into the building to improve it. RT did what I expected of him, I think most people on this blog will finally see him for what he is. I don’t think anyone appreciates having their lives “Researched” and posted on the Internet so I don’t think they will appreciate what he has done to Lara and AJ and who knows who else, eww… creepy!

  258. RT, the laugh is on you. Go figure.

    owner at infinity, I apologize even though this blogjacking has nothing to do with me. We have some lunatics running rampant.

  259. Maybe it is AJ who posts under several names…with different personas? That would make sense since he accused me and so many others of doing just that….why leave it to just one fraud AJ???

  260. Am I to believe AJ with his operations manager job at one of the busiest ports in the world, travels all over the world all the time, has time to give complete strangers real estate tours of Miami at a moment’s notice….and they are so thankful they give him parting gifts! LMAO Another two bit player with a side job DJing trying to score in Miami real estate…. too funny.

  261. Yeah, I think the back and forth is kinda funny at times, but this getting a little out of hand. Maybe Lucas can make a new post to change the subject?

  262. RT if you wanted to expose AJ as you said it would have been enough to say he bought his condo in May 2008 and paid 400k with 320K mtg. All that other stuff was out of bounds. No one here is holding a gun to people’s head forcing them to buy a condo anywhere. We all post our opinion some agree and others disagree.

    owneratinfinity – forget about posting here and better keep your opinions to yourself unless you want to be investigated and have all info about your personal life exposed here. …ahhh, too late, you already gave too much info about yourself. RT is already on his way to infinity, he will be talking to your neighbors and checking your gargage for any juicy information that will be shared here.

  263. Someone has a lot of free time on their hands. Researching someone’s personal life and posting it is over the top. Let’s get back to thoughtful analysis and facts. The arguing is entertaining but this blog is much more useful when everyone sticks to those two things.

  264. Renter Tom, Enough already. Even if AJ admits that he said a few false things regarding himself, It will not change my opinion about him. And who said it was a moments notice? We have corresponded quite a few times over email. AJ happened to be in Miami at the time of my trip and he agreed to meet me and show me around.
    I did not say he is running the busiest port. Maybe he used to. All I said was that there is no evidence of him being a DJ. I think I should not have said that and I wish I could take it back. But that is what I said.

  265. I read this blog often and have taken into consideration many of the posts here. I will probably buy in the next 5 years once I near retirement and will buy on or near the beach depending on what my pension budget will support. From what I gather, I have a lot of research to do before making a decision. I have followed AJ’s posts but do not want to be on that side of the bay. However, if AJ was just trying to sell his condo the whole time then shame on him. I has admired him for owning so many homes but now I do not.

  266. “RT if you wanted to expose AJ as you said it would have been enough to say he bought his condo in May 2008 and paid 400k with 320K mtg. All that other stuff was out of bounds. No one here is holding a gun to people’s head forcing them to buy a condo anywhere. We all post our opinion some agree and others disagree.”

    This probably would have been the best method. Renter Tom could have been a little more politically correct about it. But the information AJ was giving is clearly false. A $400k condo at 1800 club would have total carrying cost of about $3400. And similar units are renting for $1700 – $2200.

    AJ, I could care less about your personal life, who you bought your condo with, etc. But it clearly doesn’t make sense to buy at 1800 club right now. Even if I like 1800 club it would clearly make sense for me to save the $1200 – $1700 a month for a future down payment as prices bottom out.

    Montclaire

    “Even if AJ admits that he said a few false things regarding himself, It will not change my opinion about him.”

    No one here cares about your opinion of AJ. Renter Tom’s main disagreement with AJ is that his facts about 1800 club are wrong. If AJ wasn’t pushing 1800 club all the time on this blog it would be a non issue.

  267. AJ, no need to respond. Let RT do all the talking because the more he talks (write) the more he exposes himself. Trust me, he is doing a much better job at that than you could.

  268. MMT,
    Thanks man. Appreciate it. But I do have to respond to “observer”

    Observer,
    NO, I am not planning to ever sell my flat in 1800 Club.
    Hope that is as loud and clear as it can get.

  269. Montclaire – If someone gave me “a few false things regarding himself” it sure the hell would change my opinion of that person ESPECIALLY when those “few false things” were very material to the matters at hand. And I certainly would think if I were a bank I would care if someone signed a second home rider….otherwise why even have the darn thing in the first place. There are lies all over the place. Just goes to show you that Miami real estate is just one big con game that deserves to be scrutinized. I don’t own any real estate in the Miami yet but like other buyers out there…beware!

  270. This becoming a “Team Jen vs. Team Angelina” type thing. Maybe we have shirts made for the MCI get-together. I’m neutral, so I’ll just wear a Swiss soccer jersey.

  271. I also don’t see what was not “politically correct”??? The fact that two single men bought a condo together to me says “investor”…apparently someone thought it meant “gay”, well it didn’t. AJ had already said he had a GF or fiance or something and I could care less what the heck he sleeps with. That argument is just a diversion from the facts at hand and the whole poor AJ, wounded puppy act is a bit much too.

  272. “I also don’t see what was not “politically correct”??? The fact that two single men bought a condo together to me says “investor”…apparently someone thought it meant “gay”, well it didn’t. AJ had already said he had a GF or fiance or something and I could care less what the heck he sleeps with. That argument is just a diversion from the facts at hand and the whole poor AJ, wounded puppy act is a bit much too.”

    Agreed. I did think for a second that you were implying AJ was gay (not that there is anything wrong this that) which had no bearing on the discussion. But After further post I see you were pointing out he was an investor. Even if you were implying he was gay it pointless, because we know for sure that he is an investor.

    AJ,

    “NO, I am not planning to ever sell my flat in 1800 Club.
    Hope that is as loud and clear as it can get.”

    And were all happy for you. As mentioned earlier I cannot afford a $400k condo so I’ve definitely got no problem with how you’re living. My only point is you like 1800 club and we all understand this. But 1800 club is A) not a good investment right now B) not good for a buyer who cares about saving money when they can clearly rent the place for much less.

    You bought for $400k. I’ll go out on a limb and agree that you could sell for $400k now. But why would anyone want to buy a place for $400k giving them a $3400 payment each month only to sell it two years later at $400k when they could rent the exact same place for $2000?

  273. Observer, From my conversations with AJ, I know that he believes in 1800 Club. He was excited and animated when he was explaing the potential of the building and the location. Not once did he ever try to suggest that I consider buying his place.
    Renter Tom, you must relax. You might split a nerve in your head. You cannot get so twisted up over a silly blog. I think I am older than you, so take my advice and leave that computer, go and get yourself a drink son.

  274. OwneratInfinity,

    I would like to hear your observation of the building, your research on this and other buildings. When you have time please do so.

    RT, you are not right about AJ. I know him personally and have very high opinion about him.

    This whole discussion is counterproductive and has absolutly nothing to add to the observation of Miami Real Estate Investments.

    Lucas I wish you could post more RE deals on this blog like the one that you posted on MArina BLUE about 1 year ago.

    Despite the possibility of prices falling further and increase in short sales this year I still insist that there really good deals out there even for flipping(please do not jump all over me). I’ve done numerous flips since we started posting on this blog. Most of them were not in Maimi but in other areas of Florida. I could have done at least 2 more of them in Miami but did not act on them. Totally my fault. Whatever your investment strategy is I insist there are some great deals out there to make money.

    BTW I underline it is for investors not end buyers since criteria is very different

  275. Montclaire,

    “Not once did he ever try to suggest that I consider buying his place.”

    The problem is that AJ has be suggesting to everyone here to buy at 1800 club for years! And using false claims to make his case. In this very thread AJ wrote:

    “If anything, I can always get out of 1800 and get back what I paid with out losing a penny.”

    That’s kind of a silly statement to make when he’s renting his unit at a LOSS every single month. Even if he did sell today for $400k that wouldn’t cover the losses he took each month for 2 years.

    Any way you cut it, AJ would have been FINACIALLY better of to simply have waited until now (or later) to buy a 2 bedroom waterview at 1800 club. Now if actually owning the unit 2 years ago and losing money on it makes him happier, then more power to him. Maybe chicks dig that he owns multiple unit and he can afford to take the loss. But suggesting to other people that its a good deal to take the same loss is ridiculous.

  276. Gixxer 1000 – AJ isn’t truthful. If he bought at $400K and it is worth $320K, then he lost his equity and would need to pay Samir another 6% to sell the place. Why lose a penny when you can lose thousands? Underwater.

    http://money.cnn.com/2010/02/25/real_estate/home_price_forecast/index.htm

    “Duck! Watch out for falling home prices” 2/25/2010

    Read what Mark Zandi has to say…then see what Moody’s projects for Miami:

    “The worst performing market will be Miami, Fla. Moody’s projects prices there to drop a heart-stopping 29.2% by Sept. 30. That follows a 47.7% decline the metro area recorded in the past three years. Grand total: 64% drop.”

  277. Thanks Lara. I really appreciate your kind words.

    Actually I have been thinking of quitting this blog for about a few weeks now. It has nothing to do with the quality of the blog or RT’s or Mo’s antics or any other such thing. And it has absolutely nothing to do with today’s back and forth either. I realized that this blog is consuming too much of my time (2 hours per day) and that I am neglecting many other important things. Those 2 hours I could have really put to some productive use.

    I was debating if I should just read the blog and not contribute to it or contribute only very rarely. Just last week I was about to announce that I am leaving and anyone is free to use my handle or its variations. But for some reason I held off that announcement.

    Just like I am simplifying my life by cutting down on all unnecessary stuff and things, I have to do the same regarding my time. I have deleted my My space and Face book pages 2 weeks ago.
    So after this Weekend, you probably wont hear from me on these pages. I will occasionally drop by to read but I want to avoid that.
    Some might put 2 and 2 together and think that RT and his ilk chased me out. But sorry, They have been trying that for 2 years and couldn’t get rid of me. If I did not want to go, nobody could force me to go. That is for sure.
    The past 2 years on MCI has been a great ride and I enjoyed it and I hope you all enjoyed my contributions too. It is just time to move on and do other things with my life as I prepare to move to Miami full time next April.
    Thanks and See you there.

  278. Boo hoo… oh well. Get back on the meds and get well soon buddy. Such manipulations for sympathy may work on mommy but… If you have someones direct contact email, why post a message here? I’m such a meanie that I can’t figure out how I always got perfect makes on “plays well with others” on my elementary report cards. Go figure.

    Gixxer 1000 – Even if someone doesn’t lose a penny on a resale, they can lose $1500K per month for two years….that’s a $36K subsidy.

  279. I am not worried that much about my personnel info. I am just a regular guy trying a make a good living and enjoy the great Miami lifestyle.

    I could of picked anywhere to be my home base but I picked Miami for a lot of the same reasons that many of you like Miami.

    I got a decent deal on my condo for infinity and I pay the same per month as it would cost me to rent the same unit in my building.

    My unit is on the highest floor with the best (Amazing) east direct view in the building of the bay and the ocean (south Miami, Fisher island, Dodge island, government cut, BK, VK, KB, etc) for the least amount of money.

    From my research my unit was the least expensive unit that I could buy on the highest floor with best direct east water view in all of Miami and Miami Beach. In eyes it has the best view of all condos I have looked at in Miami and Miami Beach.

    Of course I am sure that the prices of these units will go down some more, but I didn’t want to rent forever. I like a nice home, some place I can call my own and it’s harder to have a nice home when it is a rental.

    This allows me to live very inexpensively which allows me to live very much under my means. This is why I picked Miami as my home base and why I don’t have to work all the time.

    However, I will take your advise and I will be careful with my info and only comment on this blog unless someone asks me for some constructive information about infinity.

    I do want to say this…

    Up until recently this blog has helped me alot to understand the Miami Condo Market, since it used to have such great usefully real honest RE information (not just opinions), however since I purchased my place this blog has turned more into a social site.

    It would be better for the Realtor that operates this blog to try to return this blog to a Miami RE blog rather then a social blog. I would think a social blog is not helping his RE business. But that is his call.

    I would suggest those of you that enjoy all these non RE comments, create a new blog just for socializing. I think you all really enjoy the socializing and bantering back and forth and that you really do like each other regardless what you say. And that is great.

    But it’s a free country so as long as the owner of this blog is Ok with it that is all that matters.

  280. “I can always get out of 1800 and get back what I paid with out losing a penny”

    Grixx,
    how is that a lie? If you said he paid 400K then how can you say it is a lie if he can sell it for 400K. I checked the sale for the 05 line in 09 and they seem to go for more than 400K. I don’t get how it is a lie if he can get that money back.

    am I missing something?

  281. MMT,

    “how is that a lie? If you said he paid 400K then how can you say it is a lie if he can sell it for 400K. I checked the sale for the 05 line in 09 and they seem to go for more than 400K. I don’t get how it is a lie if he can get that money back.

    am I missing something?”

    Look at some of my earlier post. If he is renting the unit then he is doing so at the market rate is about $2000. Therefore he is taking about a $1400 a month loss considering carrying cost are about $3400. If he was living in the place then he would still be losing the $1400 a month because he could simply rent. So when he sells he would need to cover that $1400 lost each month or about $34,000 in order to “get back what [he] paid without losing a penny”.

  282. Hey bud, I wish I could tell you not to give in to these clowns and continue to post here but I agree with you. It is a complete waste of time and I did stop posting for a few months but it’s hard not to post responses to some of these clowns, they keep sucking me back in. Maybe without you posting and lucas infrequent updates this blog will finally die and all the homophobic, racist, and elitist will find a more suitable blog to post their ideas.

  283. Grixxer, he said what he PAID. That is the operative word. If he PAID 400K and Sell for 400K then you can’t call him a liar. Surely someone admitted to MIT for grad school can understand that.

  284. Grixxer you are wrong. The cost of an investment is not what you paid. There are other factors besides what you paid. Improvements, Taxes, Maint, Utilities, Interest, etc… Maybe you misinterpeted his statement. If he paid 400k and sell for 400k does not mean he did not loose money or make money. What you pay is only part of the equation. I buy houses all the time and what I pay for the property is only a % of the COST of that investment. I think calling him a liar for that statement is wrong.

  285. Montclaire (AJ?),

    1.”I checked the profile you mentioned. That is not the AJ I know. ” –> I didn’t direct anyone to any specific profile. I just said I saw AJ on Facebook, seating at Pace Park, without giving out any links. So how would you know which profile I’m talking about?

    2. “On one hand he seems to know everything about running the operations of a large seaport and this other guy you mentioned is nothing remotely close.” –> I didn’t mention any guy, much less what any guy does for a living. AJ is the one that came talking about getting a job at the Port of Miami. I just mentioned the local politics re: getting job at the Port. I don’t know which guy you’re talking about.

    3. “I am suspecting that AJ might be using references of a friend or a person he knows to remain anonymous.” –> Possible, and that alias could be MONTCLAIRE, perhaps?

    Regarding 1800, I find the price isn’t compatible to unit sizes and location. I would never pay $400k for an unit there in 2008, with 2 bd squeezed into only 934 sq ft, which now sells in the mid 200′s. Accordingly, I would never pay $185k for a 594 sq ft unit next door either. I find the kitchens small, there’s no storage…too small for the price! Hey, but it’s a matter of personal taste and financial choice.

  286. Makes Me Think – You enflame the discussions with nonsense accusations of racism and then YOU complain? Oh come on. Black or Urban Beach Week is what it is and no one here has been gay bashing or whatever. If anything, gays are great at gentrifying areas and are welcome, they have high disposable incomes to travel around the world, buy trendy condos, and party in SoBe since they have no or little family to support. Miami could use more gays to increase the investments here.

  287. Hey AJ, sorry to see you go. Whether anyone agrees with your views or not, one thing they will all agree – this blog will never be the same without you. You have introduced a lot of thought provoking and controversial subjects and it was fun as well as informative.
    I understand your desire to cut back on many things in life. I have been wanting to do something like that for a while and have a simpler life but I just can’t seem to shake off the tail that is following me. Good for you and good luck.

  288. MMT,

    He also PAID $3400 a month. I guess if he PAID $400k cash and then sold it for $400k he could try to make that argument. But then he would also have to include the lost opportunity cost on the $400k for two years, which could easily be over $20k using comparable risk-free rates. I’m actually still waiting to see if I get admitted to MIT but I surely wouldn’t get in if I suggested that putting $400k into a condo for two years only to sell it at the same price two years later is getting every single penny that I put in.

    Plus as RT mentioned he’s got closing cost when he sell plus whatever fee’s he paid when he purchased. And the average price of 05 line units is $401K with a range from ($345k – $464k). If he landed at the top of that range he’d probably break even. If he gets the average he loses and if he falls towards the low end he loses big.

    “Maybe you misinterpeted his statement. If he paid 400k and sell for 400k does not mean he did not loose money or make money.”

    The problem is that AJ has been suggesting over and over that he would not LOSE money. I personally would care if he bought it for $800k and sold it for $400k if his month cash flow covered all the losses and he still made money even though he sold it at a $400k loss.

    Or what if he bought it for $400k and spent $100k renovating it only to sell it for $400k. It would be silly to go on a blog and profess how much of a great deal you got. $400k for this unit two years ago is NOT a great deal considering similar units are selling at similar prices two years later. Period.

    I’m one of the people who are more optimistic about the market and like Lara think ther are deals out there. A $400k unit at 1800 club just isn’t one of them.

  289. Common Enzo,
    Between your post and Renter Toms post and I believe another post I do not remember, It is easy to check the names you are talking about. You guys wrote the full name of the guy whose facebook is easy to find. I may be old but not a dinosaur. I can very well get information on the internet. Some of the things I mentioned are a combined trash dished out by both you and Renter Tom. So if I used some of RT’s garbage and answered you, please forgive me. But you are definitely right, Montclaire is my handle just for today. I probably will not use it again. You might have time to time seen my posts under a different handle. Lucas can confirm, my IP is different from AJ’s.

  290. RT – Who said anything about Black beach week that was last week? We all agreed it was a mess, that was never the issue. you are the one who mention about two single men with rights of surviorship. I did not see how it was relevant to bring that up. In the past you have made references to other posters sexual orientation. There are others on here who feel to rant about immigrant community in Miami and have made clearly racist, homophobic and even sexist comments.

  291. Marky Mark and Lara,

    I would be happy to provide any information that you wish on infinity at brickell or any other Miami or Miami Beach building. Lets do it off this blog. I just created a new aol account for anyone who would like to contact me.

    It is “owneratinfinity@aol.com”

    I enjoy helping others since this has become my hobby and I think my information is honest and helpfull. I think I have a good take on most or not all the condo buildings in miami and miami beach.

    I think I honestly see the good and bad in each building. without any hidden agenda. I guess it’s becuase I am a end user and I like to research things.

  292. RT, again you are not fooling anyone. you mentioned marital status “2 single men” and you mentioned rights of survivorship. That is not how investors hold Real Estate, it is most commonly used for domestic partnerships/marriage.
    If you have a 400K investment property with a business partner and god forbid you eventually kick the bucket. You don’t want your half of that 400K investment to you to your business partner you would prefer it go to your mother/wife/kids or even crazy uncle tommy. Rights of survivorship bypasses probate and the entire investment goes to the partner. I think you know that and that is why you mentioned it.

  293. Gixxer,

    1. “I’d graduate from UM with $0 debt. ” How are you palnning to do that if UM doesn’t offer full scholarship? For instance, the Henry King Stanford Scholarship at UM only pays 1/2 tuition. There’s no full tuition scholarship there.

    2. “First I’m not coming to Miami in the hope of getting anything. My fiance and I are currently working with executive search companies to relocate.”
    “Yes. We have high incomes here but a high income isn’t everything.”
    –> So you are both high executives in Bethesda, who have high incomes, just paid your car loans (and that would help your incomes by your own account), but managed to gather the humongous amount of $20k for a down payment in Miami?
    Oh, and not only that, an executive who’s a construction manager who snobs scholarships from Harvard and MIT. Got it!

    Come on over to Miami; you’ll fit right in.

  294. JL,

    As of today if you look at the public records there are 78 deeds recorded in infinity at brickell.

    About 60% of the closing where from pre-sales and the 40% are from folks like myself who are buying units around the $200-230 sf market price.

    Since Infinity resolved the Corus bank take over my the FDIC in Nov 2009 and now the FDIC and Starwood Captial controls the bank loan on the building the develop is closing arount 8 units per month.

  295. Grixxer, this has nothing to do with aj right now but you are getting PAID and COST mixed up what someone PAID and what it COST are 2 different things. I’m sure you can understan thtat. If you PAY 3K for a car and 2 years later you sell it for 3K does not mean it COST you $0. You called him a liar but you yourself said
    “And the average price of 05 line units is $401K with a range from ($345k – $464k). If he landed at the top of that range he’d probably break even” – So it is possible for him to break even but you called him a liar? All I am saying is that you can’t call him a liar unless you know for a fact that he cannot get what he PAID which is (400K) He never said he can get what it COST Him.

    Looks like you will be attending UM after all. If I were you I wouldn’t hold out hope for that MIT acceptance letter.

  296. Enzo,

    “How are you palnning to do that if UM doesn’t offer full scholarship? For instance, the Henry King Stanford Scholarship at UM only pays 1/2 tuition. There’s no full tuition scholarship there.”

    May you just have a trouble reading. Actually they are only offering 40%. But I have repeated that I would be working. If I go to MIT then I WON’T be working. My fiance would continue to work and cover living expenses. But If I go to Miami and work my salary would easily cover the $30k tuition and fees. Therefore I graduate with $0 debt.

    “So you are both high executives in Bethesda, who have high incomes, just paid your car loans (and that would help your incomes by your own account), but managed to gather the humongous amount of $20k for a down payment in Miami?”

    No were both not high executives, executive search companies are for more than executives. Take a look at the job opportunities at this executive recruiter:

    http://huntingtonpartners.com/Candidates/EmploymentOpportunities

    Paying off our cars etc. has helped us to start saving. Before we contributed to our 401k’s and kept about $4k in savings. But when we got more serious we started thinking about owning something together and started saving. We save about $1k a month. Again I said if the $20k was really that big then we would simply continue saving $1k a month until we get where we need to be.

    “Oh, and not only that, an executive who’s a construction manager who snobs scholarships from Harvard and MIT. Got it!”

    When did I ever snob at scholarships from Harvard and MIT. I don’t have scholarships at Harvard and MIT. I’ve already said that even without scholarships I still may go to those schools over UM with a scholarship because I know they are better schools. I don’t know why your trying to make it sound like I’m saying I’m some how to good for these schools.

  297. Montclaire said, “Between your post and Renter Toms post and I believe another post I do not remember, It is easy to check the names you are talking about. You guys wrote the full name of the guy whose facebook is easy to find.”

    No you don’t remember. I have not writeen ANY FULL NAME of anyone here in this blog, EVER. I have not posted any link or personal info from AJ either. I just said that I saw AJ’s Facebook page, which is public, without giving out any way to find it. I didn’t mention anything about his home address, didn’t post any links, nothing. Don’t put words in my mouth. Anyone can check my comments above.

    I just find ridiculous that people here are whining about the blog taking another direction, while many of them are spinning and deceiving potential real estate buyers with fiction and deception. Some people overpaid for their units and then immediately try to rationalize their purchases by trolling here under different aliases. Then, when people with experience or different views post anything contrary to the trolling talking points, all hell breaks loose.

    Regarding privacy about real estate in FL, there’s none. Hell, you can check Matt Damon’s home (and empty lot next door) info right now on Miami Beach if you want.

  298. Grixx,

    question
    1. what did he pay ? 400K
    2. Can he sell for 400K? likely
    3. Will he loose exactly 1 penny? unilkely(maybe much more)

    Conclusion, he can sell for what he paid without loosing a penny. therefore his statement was not a lie and you could be sued for calling him a lair. legally speaking!

  299. Gixxer,

    “No were both not high executives, executive search companies are for more than executives. Take a look at the job opportunities at this executive recruiter:

    These job recruiting and placement agencies’ links are pretty much useless, bc most of them just collect info from applicants to see if anything falls on their laps. Anyone with experience knows that. You see their ads offering all types of job positions but when you inquire about it, they come up with an excuse of “how the position isn’t available right now but let me take your info when something shows up.”

    Please Gixxer, no person in their right mind would snob offers from Harvard or MIT, especially during this economic funk. And couples working as executives, with high income, as you claim, wouldn’t save only $20k with both incomes to put down in a property in Miami. And it doesn’t stop there, here we have two executives with supposedly high incomes who happen to save only $1k per month.

    Seriously, I don’t have time to address this crazy talk anymore…moving on.

  300. MMT,

    You’re an idiot. Does he not pay

    “you are getting PAID and COST mixed up what someone PAID and what it COST are 2 different things.”

    Definition of COST:

    An amount PAID or required in payment for a purchase; a price.

    We talking about INVESTMENTS, not buy in car. I agree that the COST of an investment is more than just what you PAID for the purchase price. THAT IS MY WHOLE POINT.

    But you are right. He paid $400k for the condo and two years ago and could sell it for $400k today. If his point was that you can buy a condo at 1800 club and lose money every month, but you’ll be able to sell it for the same price that you bought it for and that’s why its a good deal, then I guess he didn’t lie. I apologize for saying AJ lied.

    But AJ’s concept of a good deal is really flawed. For years he has been on this blog talking about how he got a great deal on a condo at 1800 club. This “great deal” that he got was simply the same price anyone could have gotten two years later and would give you carrying cost $1400 higher than what it cost to rent. Great deal.

  301. Enzo

    “These job recruiting and placement agencies’ links are pretty much useless, bc most of them just collect info from applicants to see if anything falls on their laps. Anyone with experience knows that. You see their ads offering all types of job positions but when you inquire about it, they come up with an excuse of “how the position isn’t available right now but let me take your info when something shows up.”

    I’ve already been in talks with local companies??? I was just trying to show you that more than C-level execs use their services.

    “Please Gixxer, no person in their right mind would snob offers from Harvard or MIT, especially during this economic funk.”

    Actually it’s the opposite. In these economic times it’s hard to turn down a guaranteed salary in the hopes of getting a job a year later just because you have a degree from MIT.

    If I chose UM I would have the certainty of a salary and no debt. I have repeatedly said the other schools are better schools. But it is still a big deal to me to give up a job for a year and take on $60k worth of school debt. Even if I were to only make $70k while at UM that would mean that MIT would cost me $130k more. That’s a lot of money to leave on the table in this climate.

    But why do you even care how much I save. I put about $500 a month into my 401k and she puts about $350. We save almost 20% of our income. We could save more and I agree. We’ve been discussing this. I guess you don’t have a significant other that likes shopping, going out, traveling, etc. Hell, my fiance is only 26. None of here friends have what we have. You must have never lived in a city like DC or NY if you think our saving rate is extremely low.

  302. Wow, almost 100 more comments since I was here this A.M. Unbelievable.

    ——

    Drew — I’m not in the Eastern time zone. I’ve mentioned that at least 10 times.

    ——

    Makes Me Think = troll.

    If a person pays $400,000 for a condo, then loses at least $1,400 per month for over 2 years, and then sells that same condo for $400,000 (and loses about $30,000 to r.e. fees), that’s a bad deal and a loss by *ANY* definition.

  303. Enzo, why are nitpicking every single thing that Gixxer says? Jesus man. If he wants to go to UM, great, that’s his decision. Same goes for if he wants to move to Miami.

  304. DJ,

    Thanks man. I just don’t get it. I’ve agreed with him that the other schools are better and I might possibly go for that reason. But my fiance and I both want to live in Miami so I’m conflicted. As mentioned we’ve talked about her coming to Miami and staying with a friend while I go to school up north and then come down later. I just don’t know if that’s the right move because it will cost me $130k more.

  305. AJ said, “If anything, I can always get out of 1800 and get back what I paid with out losing a penny.”

    Let me get this straight:

    1. You told us that you’ve paid $400k for the unit in 2008
    2. Recent comparables are lower than what you paid
    3. HOA is aprox $350 (without funding the reserve) = $4,200 / y
    4. Taxes without homestead are about $7,000 for those units
    5. Plus 6% commission if you try to sell (- $21,000?)

    Are you sure you aren’t losing money?

  306. DJ said, “Enzo, why are nitpicking every single thing that Gixxer says? Jesus man. If he wants to go to UM, great, that’s his decision. Same goes for if he wants to move to Miami.”

    I said I wouldn’t address this nonsense anymore…moving on.

  307. Gixxer or Enzo,
    I think any shortfall between rent and carrying cost is a tax write off. That’s a big saving in case one has a lot of tax liability. Add to that the equity buildup which could be as mush as $10K over a two year period assuming a 30 year mortgage and 20K assuming a 15 year mortgage. The guy may break even or even come out on top. Of course if you sell and pay commission, you are out by 5%-6%. But if you can sell it yourself, you will be ahead of the game. But if the condo is bought for living in, then all these calculations are moot.

  308. Makes Me Think – First, investors can title it this way AND have a business agreement regarding how much the deceased party must pay the surviving party. That way, someone in the decedent’s estate can’t force the sale of the condo when at an inopportune time. If AJ is gay I wouldn’t care one bit whatsoever and I don’t consider it a put down or whatever. AJ is the one that claims he has a fiancee or whatever of the opposite sex, so what you are implying is that that is a lie too? Second, if AJ bought at $400K and sold at $400K he would be out the commission, closings costs, expenses incurred to finish out the decorator ready unit (easy $20K), and of course the monthly rental deficit of $1500-$2000. When it is all said and done, he will not have made a penny either and tied up $100K ($80K down and $20K finishing costs). It is a small 2 bd with a very nice view in a decent building with a nice park as its amenity but not a great investment.

    Montclaire – I NEVER gave out anyone’s name. AJ himself had posted he didn’t care who knew what a long time ago and even suggested people go to the front desk at 1800 Club and ask for AJ (why, I don’t know since he doesn’t live there).

    I do have to say however, that it is AJ…always has been…THE ONE that jumps all over people, accuses them of nonsense, puts down other places, people, and things so what goes around comes around is all.

  309. Profit or Loss said: “I think any shortfall between rent and carrying cost is a tax write off. ”

    - Sorry but that is just stupid. Depending how you set things up, you get a deduction for rental property expenses. So what, you might save 30¢ on every dollar of expenses in taxes to be recouped later when you pay tax on the gain. That doesn’t make an obviously bad investment a good one….

  310. One thing that will be a factor in the Miami market, plus Florida, California, Nevada and Arizona will be strategic defaults. It is an area of great uncertainty since there is no historical data measuring such behavior. Anecdotally, I have met more people who are strategically defaulting or will be soon. They have jobs, decent jobs, but when they are underwater by that much they have done their analysis and want to default since the consequences are less severe then continuing to pay. I think we are reaching a critical mass where strategic defaults will be a factor in the four big bubble markets especially as the unemployment rate stays high and other investments don’t perform well. It is worrisome for getting to a sustained economic recovery.

  311. Visionary – Some of them plan on moving back to their home country even though they are US citizens. Think about it, if you don’t have to pay your mortgage and taxes, that can add up in two years….it is just like a HELOC if you think about it. While many people can’t get a HELOC or use their home as an ATM, they can still do the same thing by simply not paying their mortgage and taxes! MEW (mortgage equity withdrawals) may be dead but they same thing is happening….the music on real estate scams (that the rest of use end up paying for) just keeps on playing….. Rapid foreclosures are the answer, not foreclosure moratoriums…. Do we really understand the gravity of the home ATM? Own a home and it became (and still is) a second source of income! This is sooo screwed up.

  312. So, you could “buy” a home, make the monthly payments which enabled you to take out huge phantom equity to spend on yourself and live large then when they take your home ATM card back just stop making payments…. Crazy cash flow for the “owner” but the reality is a lot of economic damage for the rest of us. Oh, and don’t forget to strip the house of the granite countertops, high end appliances, light fixtures, you name it. Their new house should be a 6′x10′ cell…

  313. OG said: “Why nobody writes something about Brickell Key?”

    - Because it’s all about Pace Park baby….all about Pace Park!

  314. “Oh, and don’t forget to strip the house of the granite countertops, high end appliances, light fixtures, you name it. Their new house should be a 6′x10′ cell…”

    Absolutely right. I can’t believe it isn’t a crime to strip houses like that.

  315. I just remembered a guy who posts on the blog, ‘The Housing Bubble Blog” (Ben’s blog). Back in 2007, he was always arguing with me of how his move from Michigan to West Palm Beach would save him rivers of money. I checked his claims, checked his assumptions, checked his calculations, checked the bubble, checked the macro and microeconomics, but nothing made sense. He was a stubborn fellow. He went ahead anyway, against my advice, financed a big home in West Palm Beach and didn’t stop trolling how wonderful life was and how his house was going to increase in price forever to make him rich. He was always throwing his Phd course (crappy university, btw), that he was attending, along with rosy scenarios and fancy calculations.

    Fast forward to 2009: he’s been crying on that blog how he made a mistake, how he lost his job, how he lost his big house, how his wife lost her job, how illness hit his life, how he’s broke, and the list goes on and on and on. I give credit to him for admitting his mistake and issuing a mea culpa on the blog.

    Back then some of us were telling everyone to get out of the market, to sell the homes like we did, to get out of the stock market, to go into cash and rent until blood was running in the streets to pick at the bones. Nope, he didn’t want to hear us. Most of the world didn’t want to hear us. When yo hear pundits and politicians claiming that, “How anyone would know that such crisis was coming”, you know they’re lying.

  316. Renter Tom,
    You have clearly mentioned the name of a person and other details. You actually facilitated a lot of us to look up that information and that was your intention. Don’t play coy now. Even I fell for your trick and your intended mischief has worked. But you are barking up the wrong tree is all I can say.

  317. Enzo, I knew it was somebody. I definitely saw the info based on which I checked the profiles online. Thanks for confirming that I am not going senile.

  318. makes me think – No, you are wrong. The property transfers but there can always be a side business contract specifying payment. All the joint tenancy with rights of survivorship deals with is title to the asset. There are many uses for titling property this way.

  319. I see RT’s point re: rights of survivorship I find it riskier because each owner can sell or gift his/her share as he/she wants, without the other owners’ permission.

  320. RT – what kind of bull shit are you smoking?

    “If one joint tenant dies, the property automatically belongs to the other owner or owners, avoiding probate.” – American Bar Association Family Legal Guide
    I guess they are wrong too!

    “The property transfers but there can always be a side business contract specifying payment”

    Don’t be an ass, if I just inherited a property free and clear without having to go through probate why the hell would I pay for the property I just inherited? By time that side agreement get to probate the new owner can sell the property and spend the cash.

    “the property automatically belongs to the other owner ”

    get your facts right son!

  321. makes me think – No, you are STILL wrong. What, do you think the mortgage contract goes away now too upon death of one of the owners??? Until you get a J.D. too then you don’t know what the heck you are talking about.

  322. Estate planning can be complex and just because you see one asset title in one way does not automatically mean you know the whole picture…

  323. I recently saw a condo title with two brothers and two unrelated people in joint tenancy with rights of survivorship. It is now available for lease. None of them live there. This is how they chose to title it for however they intend on investing together. Would I recommend it this way? Nope. But people title property the way they want to.

  324. Don’t forget the need to get life insurance on each others lives, if both incomes are necessary to pay the mortgage. That’s an extra cost.

  325. OK so let me get this right. This statement below is factually wrong whith regards to joint tennant with rights of survivorship?

    “If one joint tenant dies, the property automatically belongs to the other owner or owners, avoiding probate.”

  326. makes me think – Yes the property title in this case would be entirely in the survivors name upon death of the other. BUT, that has nothing to do with outside contracts SUCH AS A MORTGAGE or other such contracts. Just because someone now has title to the property doesn’t mean other contracts are extinguished. AJ (and that other guy) can sign over title to that dream condo at 1800 Club to you BUT the mortgage still survives and can be foreclosed upon.

  327. makes me think – The article says nothing that contradicts what I said. So you avoid probate, not that big of a deal…do you even know what probate is? You obviously do not know much about real property law. I do.

  328. Oh, I’m sorry I was wrong then. I was under the impression that the Mortgage automatically disappears when one party dies. The bank is SOL and the other party gets to inherit the property without having to deal with the mtg. co.

    My bad!

  329. MMT
    If that was the case there would be alot of husbands and wives murdering eachother.

    Just understand that the mortgage itself only secures the collateral. The note is the promise to pay the loan. The party or parties who sign the note should mirror the party or parties that sign the mortgage. But the title holder(s) may differ.

  330. i said the property automatically belongs to the other partner you said I was wrong i provided you the link so you could see this quote below but you choose to focus on probate. “When one joint tenant dies, full title to the real estate automatically vests in the surviving tenant. No paperwork is necessary, and the surviving tenant does not have to take any legal steps. The shift of ownership is easy, seamless, and automatic. ”

    you also said “So you avoid probate, not that big of a deal…do you even know what probate is?”

    that wasn’t my argument but I disagree and apparently so does the article. but hey, I don’t have a JD and I don’t even know what probate is.

    “One of the great benefits of a joint tenancy with right of survivorship is that the property does not have to go through probate. Probate is the legal process that occurs when one person dies, and a court deals with that person’s property and debts according to a will or, if the person had no will, state law. Probate is often annoying and time-consuming. Joint tenants, however, do not have to go through probate for their property because the transfer of ownership is automatic.”

    they didn’t mention the cost which can eat up a significant portion of your estate if it is contested. but that’s not a big deal, according to our local expert.

  331. OwneratInfinity

    With all due respect – Infinity – or any other building in the new Brickell area – does not have “water views”. Same with Plaza, Axis, 1060 or 500 Brickell, Brickell On The River etc. Maybe Icon and Jade do but when you are (Infinity) approx 1/4 mile from Biscayne Bay you would need a pair of binoculars to have any meaningful water view. The other drawback to the buildings on Brickell – No public park anywhere near those buildings. Well there is a small one near the metro-Rail but cmon – Infinity is not a waterfront building even though I like the building.

  332. Drew,
    re #412, that was sarcasm! Don’t you think i know the bank needs to be paid off.
    i guess i need to be explicit when I am being sarcastic.

    Tom said I was wrong with regard to the following statement. I have provided several sources saying the same thing but he insist I am wrong and bring up all these other issues to cloud the discussion.

    “If one joint tenant dies, the property automatically belongs to the other owner or owners, avoiding probate.”

  333. makes me think – Your argument was basically that two single men who title something was joint tenants with right of survivorship must be gay. I responded and said no, there can be other reasons to title property that way. You insisted that wasn’t the case and somehow implied that I was outing AJ or gay bashing. Who cares if AJ sleeps with men, women or both. The point is, yes, people can and do title properties in this way for other reasons. As such, you are wrong. Otherwise AJ would have to be gay and he isn’t according to what he has posted in the past. Moreover, I gave you an example of four people who title property the same way and they aren’t even Mormans!

  334. Kramer,

    I never said it was a waterfront building, it’s 3 blocks from the bay, one block west of brickell ave. if that is 1/4 of mile from the bay so be it.

    I am at the top of the building (50th and 51st floors) so my unit is higher then the other buildings that are east and are front of me.

    I have a east direct view 180 degree view of the water and ocean with nothing much blocking me excluding the 70 story 4 seasons to the south of me and the top of Jade in front of me.

    From my patio I can see anything that it intestering about the area. From downtowm fort lauderdale , sunny isles and mid miami beach to the north of me, then south beach, fisher island, Dodge Island, VK, KB in front of me, and then coconut grove, coral gables, south miami to the south of me.

    It is a very interest view, I alot is going on. You don’t need a TV, just look out the window.

    Axis, 1060 or 500 Brickell, Brickell On The River are shorter buildings and they have more taller buildings blocking their view to the east. Infinity is the tallest building in brickell after the 4 seasons.

    The shorter newer buildings in front of me as I look east are good cause they provide me an amazing night view, which I would not have if the building was right on the water. As we all know if you are right on the water, not night view is pretty dark.

    I agree that the lower floors in Infinity don’t have much of a water view, however I am not on one the lower floors.

  335. “You insisted that wasn’t the case and somehow implied that I was outing AJ or gay bashing”

    I thought that was what you were trying to say since you mentioned 2 single men and in the past you made reference to his sexual orientation. “Why two single men buy a place together as joint tenants with rights of survivorship as an investment condo is beyond me”

    Anyway your argument was about rights of survivorship not how title is held by investors. I asked you sevral time where i was wrong (14 post ago) now you tell me it is about the application of the practice and not the implications of that paractice.

    Yes there are reasons why investors would hold tile to rental property in that manner. That was not my argument. Most experts would tell you not to hold investment properties in your name especially if you have a sizeable net worth.

    anyway, I think it is time to move past this topic. Lucas, I think it is time for a new post

  336. Those who are throwing all kinds of dirt on guys you are talking about, better hope and pray that they are not reading MCI. I am not a criminal lawyer but I know something is not right on this thread. If these guys decide to take on one or some of you, you could be in deep shit. Any 2 penny lawyer can find enough wrongdoing to file a suit. If they know that some of you may have millions in the bank, you will definitely be a magnet for any tort lawyer. The question is not whether such a case would hold up in a court of law. If someone is determined or have a lot of time, you will be up in shits creek (have you forgotten what Lucas had to go through?)
    BTW, if you think internet is anonymous, just think again. It is not that difficult to get a subpoena to make Lucas give up the IP number and the service provider the address of any of you.

  337. This is great….I haven’t read what’s been going on it last few dozen posts, but let me declare that we smoke a in honor for passing post #420.

  338. for the record I’m not talking about anyone. I don’t own anything of value. my home is underwater and my bank accounts are barely in the black, my cars are 10 years old and 13 years old and my credit cards are overdrawn. Nothing to sue here, keep on moving.

  339. Enzo,

    No, since the building is Fanie Mae approved I financed it with 20 percent down. And took advanage of my excellent A+ credit rating and the current low interest rates.

  340. owneratinfinity,

    I didn’t mean to creep you out. I’m interested in buying something and I like Infinity. I wondered if it was easier to get finance for that building, that’s all.

  341. “It is not that difficult to get a subpoena to make Lucas give up the IP number and the service provider the address of any of you.”

    Actually, it’s extremely difficult, especially in non-criminal cases. At worst, the comments in this thread would give rise to civil action rather than criminal action (and since no one’s names have been used in this thread, I’ll be damned if I can figure out how anyone could claim libel).

  342. What the fuck are you douchebags even talking about right now??? Who thinks a crime has been commited here?

    Lets start a new blog….CSI Miami (condo investments.com)!

  343. Enzo,

    Infinity is fannie mae approved, so it is as easy to finance a condo it Infinity was it is to finance for any fannie mae approved condo, I would think.

    You need good imcome, the right debit ratio, good credit, I think at least 720,(however mine is much higher, in the high 700s) and 20 percent down.

    I used my regular bank where I have been banking with for years for my loan.

    I had great credit, money in the bank, zero debit, high income, no child support payments, etc. I was dream for them. They approved me right away without a problem.

    I would suggest you contact your bank and ask them what they require to approve you for a fannie mae approved building. They will need the name of the building and a copy of the sales contract.

  344. Joe, actually I did not read the whole thing as I was confronted with 150 posts on one single day and skimmed through the surface. What I am concerned is that it is a possibility. Maybe some lawyer can argue that there is a lot of hate and a hence a threat exists. I don’t really know. But this is definitely walking on thin ice. I am not sure if actual names are used but there were enough hints, references, unit numbers and so on. It is a no brainer.

  345. owneratinfinity said, “Infinity is fannie mae approved, so it is as easy to finance a condo it Infinity was it is to finance for any fannie mae approved condo, I would think. ”

    Actually it’s not that easy. Lenders check ratio of HOA deadbeats and ratio of rentals. Being Fannie approved doesn’t guarantee anything.

  346. Enzo,

    you said
    Actually it’s not that easy. Lenders check ratio of HOA deadbeats and ratio of rentals. Being Fannie approved doesn’t guarantee anything.

    —My bank (bank of america) did not do that, this I am sure of. They never asked to get anything from the condo listing the number of HOA late peolpe or ratio of rentals.

    —And just FYI at this moment there is no one late with their HOA dues, per the very sharp woman who manages the building. – of course there are only 78 owners in the building so far. As more peolpe buy into the building there will be lates HOA fees I am sure.

    — I would make a deal in the building, bring the contract to your bank. You have 15 days to get financing and it you can’t get financing the developer (DYL Group) will return your 10% deposit.

    —The developer treater me very well during the entire process and I trust him very much. Never once did I feel I has going to get ripped off by him. A matter of fact every one that works in the building have always treated me great, like I lived in a more expeniseive upsale building then infinity is.

  347. DJ – Hmmmmm….invite me over, sounds great! CSI Miami….that’s funny too.

    Observer2 – Nonsesnse, pure nonsense. “Hate”…oh please. If anyone should be afraid it would be AJ since he has said some of the worst stuff about people on this blog, in my opinion of course. Plus, we know where to serve him with the papers. LOL And of course if one, hypothetically speaking, obtains a mortgage stating it is for owner-occupancy only and that is spelled out in say a separate Second Home Rider and you never occupied the place but instead bought it as a rental investment, hypothetically speaking of course, then perhaps one obtained that money improperly, perhaps fraudulently, and got a lower interest rate because of such misrepresentation then perhaps, hypothetically speaking, that might be something that violated something that someone somewhere might not like.

  348. Renter Tom:

    You are absolutely correct concerning joint tenancy with right of survivorship. It is merely a form of tenancy and has nothing to do with sexual or marital relationship of the parties. It is the strongest of the tenancies, the weakest being a tenancy in common.

    Florida does not, to the best of my recollection, recognize same sex marriages. Last time I looked, Florida’s Constitution specifically defines marriage as a union between a man and a woman.

    Now an interesting question, however, is, hypothetically speaking, if Florida did recognize same sex marriage, could parties to a same sex marriage title their property as tenants by the entirety? Or would the “civil union” label prevent such a title?

    scriv

  349. Observer2 remarked:
    “Maybe some lawyer can argue that there is a lot of hate and a hence a threat exists. …But this is definitely walking on thin ice.”

    There have been plenty of asinine comments since this thread was started 9 days ago but that one takes the cake.

    Observer2, your observations are absurd.

  350. Drew,

    I agree. I’m confused as to what Observer2 is even talking about. The information about AJ being discussed was taken from public records. I don’t think mocking someone for overpaying for a condo can be considered hate speech.

  351. Gixxer 1000 – You’re right, I looked it up and thankfully, still, stupid greedy flippers aren’t a protected class unless perhaps they are obese since the law is unsettle there (just kidding) even if you pay too much for your flat, mate.

  352. owneratinfinity,
    I’m sure to be repeating a question you already answered, but the volume of irrelevant bantering on this blog drowned out your interesting responses to a building I have more recently been looking at.
    What are the current going rates at Infinity? Are they offered by the developer? Have seen very little on the mls for this building. For the right price it seems to offer greater square footage than most buildings. must be the loft style units, or are they playing with the “air” square footage of the open loft? Thanks

  353. Drew & Gixxer 1000,
    After your comments I went back and read the posts in detail. I clearly mentioned that I am not a lawyer and I don’t know. But even on a second reading, something does not feel right. To determine technically if there is an existence of a hate or threat or blackmail or libel is not my field of expertise but a good lawyer can work it to his advantage. But don’t you think perception is everything. In a trial by jury, it is what the housewives on the jury bench perceive. As Joe suggested, if it is just a civil action, then the bar to prove wrongdoing will be very low.
    I like to bring to your attention the recent case in which a woman got convicted for the suicide of a teenager due to their online communication on a social networking site.
    All I am saying is just be careful.

  354. So I guess we’re talking about “cyberbullying” instead of libel or extortion or intentional infliction of emotional distress.

    So if AJ goes and blows his head off as a result of Renter Tom’s harassment (cyberbullying) AJ’s family may have wrongful death claim available against RT and RT may be charged with with a criminal cyberbullying offense. Classic. I thought the cyberbullying laws were intented for impressionable teens and tweens, not two grown men arguing about a goddamn condo purchase.

  355. Observer2 – You are obviously an idiot and your Internet access rights should be revoked or your “submit” button taken away. Your post has got to be the dumbest legal analysis I have ever read. So, sue me.

  356. “Any 2 penny lawyer can find enough wrongdoing to file a suit.” – - Observer

    You think so?

    And survive a Rule 11? Or a FSA 944.28(2)(a) or similar claim?

    Really?

    scriv

  357. NY Times — Sharp Drop in Existing Home Sales in January

    By JAVIER C. HERNANDEZ
    Published: February 26, 2010

    Tempering hopes for a steady recovery for housing, a report released Friday indicated that sales were stumbling even with significant government support.

    Sales of existing home in January fell 7.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.05 million, according to a report by the National Association of Realtors. Analysts had expected an increase of 0.9 percent.

    Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the realtors group, called the report “not encouraging” and said in a statement that it “raises concern about the strength of the recovery.”

    The surprise decline in home sales was the latest setback for the housing market

  358. Enzo – I could see further declines in new home sales since the cost of existing homes is in a lot of cases quite a bit lower than new home construction costs + land + builder profit. However, the existing home sale decline of this magnitude is a real surprise. Perhaps the weather did play a significant factor in January? Dunno. Regardless, the fuel that was behind the housing bubble is long gone and no one is willing to throw any new logs into the fire pit and most have simply left the campground. The bonfire is now just smoldering ashes waiting for something to at least generate a few sparks but won’t be what it was, people have moved on.

  359. gables,

    you asked:
    “What are the current going rates at Infinity? Are they offered by the developer? Have seen very little on the mls for this building. For the right price it seems to offer greater square footage than most buildings. must be the loft style units, or are they playing with the “air” square footage of the open loft?”

    —the going rate for infinity is around $200-230 per square foot (I paid around 220).
    And they don’t seen to charge more for a higher floor or if your unit faces west or east. Please go to this link http://www.condoreports.com/real-estate-reports/infinity-at-brickell_miami_condo_recent_9026
    It shows all the recent sales in the building (both from the developer and the re-sales from the MLS). Just FYI condo reports dot com is an excellent site, it tell you anything you need to know for nearly every building in dade and broward counties.

    - Are they offered by the developer? Yes, but there are also just a very few re-sales in the building. It was the last building bulit in Brickell, so its the most empty, only 78 sold and the building has 459 units. The developer needs to sell many many units, cuase most of the original pre-contruction buyers have dropped out or can not obtain financing to close on their units. The sale office is now in the building on the 17th floor. Their sales number should be still 305-400-6144. It’s best to buy from the deevloper since they have so many for sale and they are selling them for less then the few re-sale are selling them.

    —For the right price it seems to offer greater square footage than most buildings. Yes you are correct, they seen to be the best deal for the brickell per square foot that I notice when I did my research. Most of the units are lofts and not everyone like lofts however I do. I feel its very very cool to have a 2 story sky loft (like a small townhouse) on 50 and 51 floor with a direct east city and water view. It’s very unquie, since most of the condos in miami and miami beach are 1 story units. I like things that are unquie.

    – must be the loft style units, or are they playing with the “air” square footage of the open loft?” Yes the developer is playing with the square foot by adding the open space of the loft to the square foot. But just FYI my bank’s appriaser didn’t count the loft space as sqaure foot however the my units apprisal come in 9K over my purchase price. Of course that was due to the fact that it got apprisaed for more since it was on such a high floor with a amazing east view.

  360. Remember when we thought 100 comments on this board was a lot? Now we’re at 453 and counting.

    Of course, only about 12 of them are actually about real estate … LOL.

  361. Observer2 — “As Joe suggested, if it is just a civil action, then the bar to prove wrongdoing will be very low.”

    Um, nice try, but I said the exact OPPOSITE of that:

    “Actually, it’s extremely difficult, especially in non-criminal cases. At worst, the comments in this thread would give rise to civil action rather than criminal action (and since no one’s names have been used in this thread, I’ll be damned if I can figure out how anyone could claim libel).”

    There’s nothing in this thread that even REMOTELY would be considered libel, “cyber-stalking,” “cyber-bullying,” or anything of the sort.

    If you don’t want people to know who you are, it’s very simple: Don’t post personally identifying info.

  362. owneratinfinity,

    1. Do you have the building’s financial statement’s describing reserve fund, budget, etc?

    2. How much is the HOA there?

    3. You do have amazing views from up there.

  363. Joe said, “Remember when we thought 100 comments on this board was a lot? Now we’re at 453 and counting.”

    You can thank me bc since I got this blog is on fire. lol

  364. owneratinfinity,
    I am looking at your building with some interest. But with 17% of the building sold, I would be concerned about the future stability of the building. Did that ever cross your mind? What is the current HOA?
    You mentioned the developer is not charging a premium for high floors or east units and you got yours for $220 a sf. If high floor and east units are selling for $220 then is it safe to assume the rest should sell for $150. What do you think? Is there a noice problem for west units due to the metro rail being so close?

  365. Enzo,

    Here the anwsers for you

    1. Do you have the building’s financial statement’s describing reserve fund, budget, etc? -
    They gave this information to me with I closed. You can get this info from the young woman has runs the buildings or from be the sales office. But here is how it works for this building: This is an empty building only 78 sold of 459 units, so the developer is controling the building (well actuall Starwood captial and FDIC is controling the building, FDIC took over Corus banks loan on the building and then sold 40% of the loan to Starwood and keep 60% of tyhe loan for themsselfs) So the developer (DYL group) Starwood and FDIC was approve any sales in the building. Since the building is new, the current maintenance fee does not include any reserves, so there are no reservers, however the FDIC will contain to defiecnt fund the building until it is sold and I am sure that they will fix what needs to be fixed during that time, SO far, since the FDIC and Starwood took over the loan and is controlinmg the building along with the developer DYL group the building was been very well maintained and the staff in the building is excellent. Better then I except for a middle of road bulding. I do feel start next year they may start collecting in addition money per month inaddition for our current maintenace fee to start a reserve .

    2. How much is the HOA there? Currenyly I am paying .43 per square foot, howver a pay a few cents more per month cause I have a penthouse level unit and they have speical assess to the top of bulding’s large roof top deck with a spa and bar etc. So I pay I bit more for the mainteance of the roof top. I am sure that this price per square foot HOA will go up once the bulding is sold out and the developer and FDIC leaves. The assocs controls the building. (I am not sure if I have the right folks mentioned, but its close enough)

    3. You do have amazing views from up there.
    Yes, like mentioned before, becuase I am at the top of building and the building is tallest building in brickell after the 70 story 4 seasons, my condo unit is taller then nearlly all the buiilding that are in front of it, so you can a great a view of the bay, ocean south beach, etc. At night it’ is just as much of a amazing view cuase you see the lights of all the new building east of me and then the lights of port, south beach and fisher island, etc. In my eye It’s better then just a water only view. Cause at night the water is too dark.

  366. No matter how you slice and dice it the sales figures for December and January foretell the coming of $125 a square foot just like Ace predicted.

    Walk away while you still can before Hussain Borak Obama, Dingy Reid and Nazi Poloski realize that by reinstating taxes on the amount forgiven by the Banks they would be able to pay for a nationwide mandatory communist style health care program for the next five years.

  367. owneratinfinity,
    thanks for the info. any word on parking? one per unit? what is the cost of an extra?
    can you elaborate on the rooftop? you said it has limited access to PH owners? how many units does this include? others in the building cannot access the roof? thanks

  368. observer2

    you said —
    I am looking at your building with some interest. But with 17% of the building sold, I would be concerned about the future stability of the building. Did that ever cross your mind?

    —–yes that worried me too but like have already said, FDIC controls the loan and the building and they will continue to fund it until it is sold out. So I feel better know that the FDIC is funding the building until it sells out rather then hoping the developer keeps funding the building (via money from their construction loan bank (Corus) which has been taken over my the FDIC)

    What is the current HOA? – Like I said in my last comment FDCI/Starwood/developer DYL Group controls the building (well really the FDIC does ) not an condo assoc yet I pay .43 per foot, but it will go up I am sure.

    You mentioned the developer is not charging a premium for high floors or east units and you got yours for $220 a sf. If high floor and east units are selling for $220 then is it safe to assume the rest should sell for $150.
    –no it’s the same price (around 200-230) reguardless of the FLOOR or the view (east or west). That is why I picked the highest floor with a direct east view

    What do you think? Is there a noice problem for west units due to the metro rail being so close?
    – Not for me cause the train is on the west of side of the building and the merto mover is very queit. However, the train noise must not be bothering the buyers, cause they are selling as many of the west side of the building as the east side, I would think you would get used to it and you don’t heard it at all when the door is shut.

  369. The blizzards in the NE probably had some impact on home sales up there…but for the impact on the national number wasn’t huge so the 7.2% decline in existing home sales is a very significant number. I really am getting a bad feeling about strategic defaults…at least in the big bubble markets.

  370. gables

    You said: ,
    thanks for the info. any word on parking? one per unit? what is the cost of an extra?
    — right now since the building is so empty there is no assigned parking, And we each get a space. We can valent a 2nd car, however the valet stops at 7:pm so after that you can park the 2nd car yourself. Thiss again is cause the building is pretty empty and it; has lots of spaces, actually more then is needed by the condo, cause there is some office space and a little retail space in the building. But in the future the 2nd space you would wluld need be to rent from the building like for $100 per month. But this is not for sure. The building is closing around 8 units a month and the FDIC who controls it does NOT seems to be in a rush to sell the building. So the parking should be a non-issue for a long time,

    can you elaborate on the rooftop? you said it has limited access to PH owners? how many units does this include? others in the building cannot access the roof? thanks
    - its very large and you can see both east and west – a hell of a view, It has a spa, a bar, lots of tables, etc. Only the unit on the floor 40 and up are to have access to it. maybe around 50-70 units can access it. Other lower units are not to access it however they have not turned on the security for the roof deck yet, so at this point anyone can access it.

  371. Owneratinfinity,
    So If I want to use the roof top pool deck and bar, I have to buy either 40th floor or up and pay a little more in HOA for that previlage. It is a bit strange. Can you please find out if this is mentioned in the condo docs? can people 39 floor and below overturn this rule when the board is formed? I am sure floors 1-39 will have more members than 40 to 51 and in a vote, the higher floor guys will lose. Please find out about this from the management. Thanks for all other info.

  372. observer2

    you said:,
    So If I want to use the roof top pool deck and bar, I have to buy either 40th floor or up and pay a little more in HOA for that previlage. It is a bit strange. Can you please find out if this is mentioned in the condo docs?
    —it’s mentioned in the condo docs for sure that it is to used only my the 40 floor units. I am only $4.16 per month in my maintenace fee due to my access to the roof deck.

    can people 39 floor and below overturn this rule when the board is formed?
    — yes the condo rule could be changed for enough of the owners vote on making the floor accessable to everyone. Then my $4.16 per month would go down alot since everyone in the building would be paying for the maintanence of the roof desk.

    I am sure floors 1-39 will have more members than 40 to 51 and in a vote, the higher floor guys will lose. Please find out about this from the management. Thanks for all other info.
    — Yes there are more lower floor people then upper floor peolpe, however since the roof deck does not have a pool, I don’t think the lower floor peolpe will fight to change the rules so they have access to it.

    –in summary, since I have the same view (east) as the roof deck does I don’t plan to use it that much, so it doesn’t matter to me if the whole building uses it sometime in the future due to a vote change to the condo rules. Plus you know peolpe even when secutiy is in place to limited access to the roof deck they will have freinds on the higher floors that will grant them access. I think the roof deck is great for large parties, a wedding, etc. but for me it’s good to get a suntan, since it’s near to me and show my friends the amazing view. I just really use the gym, a parking space and my condo, amd maybe the pool when it’s hot, I will not use the common areas that much.

    Here is link to pics of the roof top deck and other areas in the building. http://www.kafka-franz.com/infinity-two-brickell.htm

  373. Owneratinfinity,

    I am happy you enjoy your building. However, as anyone can see from the pictures, the building has poorly finished common areas, with cheap furniture. it definitely looks like they have run out of money.
    I do love the views from the upper floors though and the location is good.
    It is just not my piece of cake, but enjoy!

  374. Carlos,

    True, the lobby is weak, the kitchen is kind of Italian flashy. Pool looks decent.

    onweratinfinity, how is the gym? No good gym pictures?

  375. carlos,

    You said:
    I am happy you enjoy your building. However, as anyone can see from the pictures, the building has poorly finished common areas, with cheap furniture. it definitely looks like they have run out of money. I do love the views from the upper floors though and the location is good It is just not my piece of cake, but enjoy!
    — I am sorry, but you are very incorrect about the finished work in the commomn areas. I furniture is far from cheap compared to all the other buildings in area in the same price range in brickell. You need to see the building in person, the pcitures don’t do it justfy, I guess, in your eyes, for the building’s common areas. If you visit the building I sure you will change your mind. I was very impress how well the building was completed in this tough market. I thought the developer would cut more things out, but they did not for what I can tell. They just added stone tops to all the outside tables by the pool and the roof deck, I was surprised they spent the money on that, but it shows that wanted to finished the building well. The only place that I don’t like the finish work is in the halls. I think the carpet is a bad pattern and I am not a fan of the brown color, but I guess it will wear better.

  376. Enzo,

    you said,
    True, the lobby is weak, the kitchen is kind of Italian flashy. Pool looks decent.
    onweratinfinity, how is the gym? No good gym pictures?

    —I don’t agree the lobby looks as good or better then other same priced buildings
    _- the kichens are about average, nice equipment, very queit dish washerI like the white cabnits in my unit and they are all 42 inch upper cabnits, which look very nice
    — the gym is average, it could be largered and could have some free weights, but if works well for me. it has a nice view of the pool and brickell ave buildings. There is a mens and woman (steam bath and sunna)
    —Pool is as good or better then the other same priced buildings
    – again the thing I don’t like the most is the carpet in the halls, again I don’t the capet in halls in many of buildings.

  377. Well, I guess we have different perspectives.
    I am glad you enjoy though.
    Most of these buildings in Brickell want to look cool and modern, but regardless of whoever the interior designer was, they picked cheap furniture. It just looks worse, since they intend to look like something they are not.
    If you visit Four seasons, Icon Brickell or Santa Maria, maybe you’ll get a better idea of tasteful design.
    I have been to Infinity. I think it could have been a great building, but it is just another cheap construction project in Brickell, such as Brickell on the river,Axis, Latitude, or the mint/ivy/wind complex.Most of these buildings were built on speculation on how cool the lower middle American class would think about living in a supposedly high-end property..so you get prime real estate locations with awful projects. Best example: One Miami

  378. Infinity could be a success for the right price. right now they are charging around a 15% premium on square footage because they count the air space. Thus the range of $200-$220 sq ft is really like $230-$240 sq ft of actual space (air space is not trivial and should not be neglected, however). My thought has been that a working class white collar building will be difficult to fill at over $200 sq ft if you want responsible end users who run the hoa, etc. But at this price point you are getting into the proper neighborhood. Seems like 2B units (which are large) are selling for minimum $300k, probably a bit too pricey for the average joe once you factor in HOA. But at $250k this building would probably sell out! Like the loft and uniqueness of layouts. Its not waterfront or even water view, so location should dictate lower values. Say 20% premium to Vue across the street. But in time the location will be closer to where restaurants and shops will spring up (west of Brickell) since land is still there to develop.

  379. carlos,

    you said.
    If you visit Four seasons, Icon Brickell or Santa Maria, maybe you’ll get a better idea of tasteful design.
    - —These are much more expenisve buldings, so they should have better finishes. And in my eyes ICON has excelling finishes, however in my eyes they are not tasteful in their design and thier design will date alot faster then Infinity design of their comman areas will date. Since Infinity design are pretty standard for newer building.
    —-For me as a end user I wanted the following in the following order
    **Number 1 is location – although they build way too much condos in brickell, Brickell near the bay has been considered the best area in urban miami for a very long time, however mid-town and downtown have got much much better in recent years and I am sure they will continue to get better as the enconcy improves. Brickel also have 3 Publix supermarkets. One directly behind Infinity to the west with a haircut place and dry cleaner and another new one in Mary Brickell Village – 3 blocks north of Infinity. I didn’t see any Publix suppermarkets in walking distance from the downtown and midtown condo buildings – I like walking to the supermarketing, etc. I only drive my car to go to work. And I like large supermarket chains like Publix for my shopping, since they generally have better qaulity products and better selection and prices that the small markets.
    **Number 2 is price – I wanted to buy a place that would cost the same or near same per month as a rental of the same unit costs per month. The condo I bought allowed me to do that. (the unit I purchased, cost me 1/2 as much to buy as what it would of costed me to buy the a same size unit that I was renting in the newer beeach front buildng on the beach and if I every rented the beach unit, I would be losing $1000 per month – newer beach units seen to rent much cheaper then what they cost to own. I liked the beach, but I don’t want to pay double more per month to own a unit there then what I am paying now. I am trying to live cheap and over well under my means.
    **Number 3 is view – my unit (since its at the top of building) has the best view for the money in any building that I have seen.
    —no way could I have bought a unit on 50-51 floor for 220 per square with my view in any of these more expenive building that you mentioned.

    I have been to Infinity. I think it could have been a great building, but it is just another cheap construction project in Brickell, such as Brickell on the river,Axis, Latitude, or the mint/ivy/wind complex.
    —you need to look at this building again (and the other one too you mentioned) and this time as you look at the building consider how much lowered their price have got in the last 6 months or so, I think you will see that Infiity is a pretty nice compared for the these others what the others are selling for today – A lower price makes up for alot of things you don’t like about a building -
    —I don’t know alot about construction, but there seems to be a lot concete in Infinity compared these other building. I have a solld 2 story block walls on my patio between me and the units on each side of me. The building seens to be weel made to me for the money they are charging for it now.

    Most of these buildings were built on speculation on how cool the lower middle American class would think about living in a supposedly high-end property..so you get prime real estate locations with awful projects. Best example: One Miami
    —I agree 100% that Infinity and the rest of the same type buildings you mentioned are not high end buldings, they are just middle of road new building, however now that they have and will continue to lower their prices they are priced or will be priced right to what they are actually worth when you factor in the fact that these are just of middle of the road new condo buildings.
    —- but again I got the right loction, price and view in one of the middle of the road condo buildings in brickell.

  380. I have posted twice in this forum recently. Mainly to get opinions on the best buildings to purchase in the Brickell/Downtown/Park West corridor, as my office is at the Federal Courthouse in downtown as ( well let us just leave it at that.) I need to comment on the recent posts by this guy RenterTom. In my opinion he is not a rentertom But he is a PeepingTom. Creepy just plain creepy what he has admitted to doing to other posters. He owes this girl Lara an apology and the other guy he mentioned for invading their privacy. And this is only the ones he has admiitted to peeping on. Then his admission that he hides behind a proxy ISP is very telling. Trust me, I see his kind every day in my line of work. What he admits to here is only the tip of the iceberg in what else he may be up to with you other forum posters. He is the modern day equivalent of the classic Peeping Tom with the trench coat peeping late at night into other peoples windows (lives). Ewwwww. Change your handle RenterTom – It should read PeepingTom.

  381. gables,

    you said:
    Infinity could be a success for the right price. right now they are charging around a 15% premium on square footage because they count the air space. Thus the range of $200-$220 sq ft is really like $230-$240 sq ft of actual space (air space is not trivial and should not be neglected, however).
    —-Yes, that is correct but only for the loft units, the non-lofts with they are not doing that. Remember they could of just extended the 2nd floor floor, which would make the sqaure foot more coorect. The open space is worth sometime to me, cause I like it since it’s like having a townhouse with a 20 foot ceiling. But adding 100% of the open space as additonal square foot is wrong, but again my unit got apprisal for more then I paid and the appriaser didn’t count the open space in the unit’s square foot.

    My thought has been that a working class white collar building will be difficult to fill at over $200 sq ft if you want responsible end users who run the hoa, etc. But at this price point you are getting into the proper neighborhood.
    —-IF a single person (or a couple) can live in one of the small one bedroom 1.5 bath loft unit, (and have no plans for kids for a while) that they buy for $160-170K, then when you do the math it is much cheaper to live in that smal lloft unit then buying a house and paying all the upkeep of a house, that includes the additional utiliies, cable, phone, internet, water, and also harzrd insurnce, gym memberships, yard care, etc. Of course I house is much more pritive and is much larger then a small loft unit.

    Seems like 2B units (which are large) are selling for minimum $300k, probably a bit too pricey for the average joe once you factor in HOA.
    – Example – they just sold two non-loft one story units facing east but on lower floors. They were the same unit 1535 square foot and sold for $307K each to the same man. that is $200 per square feet. They are very big and nice, lots of windows and great floor plans. So with 20% down they should be around $2500-2800 per month total, with the mortgage, the maintenace and the taxes. I guess that is pricely, howeber they are selling a very nice 1200 square for 2 bed 2.5 bath loft units that have both west and easts view on the 34-38 floors, which would be only $240K if you can get it at $200 per square foot. That would be more like $2000 to 2200 per month which is more effortable I would think to the average white collar joe.

    But at $250k this building would probably sell out!
    —see comment above

    Like the loft and uniqueness of layouts. Its not waterfront or even water view, so location should dictate lower values
    —Yes, that is the case for the lower floors, that is why it;s best to try to get a unit on one of the tops floors facing east since they don’t seem to be charging more per square foot for the tops floor facing east units compared to facing west units on lower floors. This is what I did.
    .
    Say 20% premium to Vue across the street. But in time the location will be closer to where restaurants and shops will spring up (west of Brickell) since land is still there to develop.
    —- Yes, but maybe Vue is about 30 or so% less to buy. There are world diffent between Vue and Infinity and other midde of road new building like Infinity in brickell. Vue was buit as a apt house and as it was compelting being built it was turned into a condo, cause at that time the condo market was very hot. On a short sale or repo a one bedrooms sell for 100K-130K in the buuilding. Lots of short sale, and Repos, since it was sold for too much during the condo boom. I have heard good stories about the owners in Vue trying to keep the building nice and working through these hard times together and show pride of ownership.
    –I agree – west of Infiniy and north on 2nd ave where is land that can be developed for shopping.

  382. Christina – Whatever AJ….or should I scream and report to Lucas to remove your abusive post…boo hoo…. Meanwhile, I will continue to investigate condos to uncover what is really going on before purchasing and investigate fraudsters who are just shills. Lara posted some information regarding a sale that was successful in this market, so I looked it up…easy to do…and sure enough she bought the place at one of the lowest s.f. of any buyers so she was able to get out with some cash too….just goes to show you the the purchase price is the number one thing in real estate…

  383. Christina, (forgive all my grammer, spelling errors, please)

    You said:
    I have posted twice in this forum recently. Mainly to get opinions on the best buildings to purchase in the Brickell/Downtown/Park West corridor,
    — The infinity building were I brought recently is in Brickell is three blocks west of bay on s, miami ave between 13 and 14th streets. It has a merto moved station on 14th front of the building, a 3 mintiue walk. (it the finicial center stop). You can take that to your office.
    —-I started commenting on this blog a few days ago, so you may want to take a few moments to scan for “owneratinfinity” on this posting cause I have provided lots usefull info on the Infinity Building.
    — I do agree with you about some peolpe getting into too detailed personnal infromation about the other blogers. That;s why I try not too provide too much excat info on my deal that I got on my condo that I bought at Infinity. I don’t want someone to figure out who I am and post information that could lend to some stealing my ss# or something that could destory my good credit rating.

  384. Christina – Disparaging someone online by implying or stating they are what is essentially a sex offender is a serious tort. What you posted about me was not “opinion” and is not protected speech. Ironically, you’re the one that crossed the line, but I suspect that was your intent and you already knew that. I guess when a shill gets exposed they get bitter and try to engage in a cat fight…LOL meeeoooww

  385. Christina – Real estate records in florida are public and easily accessible online. Deal with it.
    As far as living near the courthouse, the metromover stops a block away, so you can live anywhere in west brickell or eastern downtown near a stop and have an easy commute. Take your pick of buildings. I would stay south of the river or in the one miami/ epic / met one cluster. any further north gets to be a bit deserted and homeless infested. good luck.

    also, who cares about the quality of common area furniture? 99% of it never gets used. and it all looks the same; imported italian or shitty ikea grade, doesnt matter. The developers should only invest in the common areas which actually get used (pools/gyms) who needs a faux bar or a virtual golf room or a soaring lobby? just more space to cool in the summer.

    within 10 yrs most of the excess common areas will be sealed off and converted into additional units to help defray maintenance and raise $$ for the hoa. See the windowless units inside the four ambassadors for a picture of things to come.

  386. MiamiSkeptic

    If the developers are trying to sell you a 2 bd for 800K-1M, I do care about the common areas. They are part of the price you are paying to live in that development.
    I personally prefer to have quality delivered, if I am being charged for that.
    I am talking about buildings that are pretending to deliver something they do not offer. If these issues are not a matter for the buyer, they should buy in a building that does not claim to be high-end and the” ultimate luxury living”, like most of these new constructions claim to be, when they are just plain poor constructions, with a face-lift to fool the ignorant buyers.

  387. Christina (aka, I presume, AJ) — If you’re trying to imply that you’re a lawyer with your “federal courthouse” comment, you’re in the wrong line of work if the above is your honest assessment of the comments in this thread. Comparing someone who looks at *PUBLIC* r.e. records to a “peeping Tom” is beyond the pale. Shame on you.

    ——

    Miami Skeptic — “See the windowless units inside the four ambassadors for a picture of things to come.”

    Which building(s) are you referring to?

  388. owneratinfinity said,

    “again the thing I don’t like the most is the carpet in the halls, again I don’t the capet in halls in many of buildings.”
    –> I agree, as the pictures you sent illustrate that. The hall looks commercial, no sconces, wrong color, dark.

    “- the kichens are about average, nice equipment, very queit dish washerI like the white cabnits in my unit and they are all 42 inch upper cabnits, which look very nice”
    –> I was referring to the flashy blue color. I like the appliances, but it seems that there’s an island or counter missing.

    “the gym is average, it could be largered and could have some free weights, but if works well for me.”
    –>By the pictures, the gym doesn’t look that great. And the fact there’s no free weights is a downer. I mean, couldn’t they put a stack of free weights there? I guess the residents will have to do that on their own dime.

    “I don’t agree the lobby looks as good or better then other same priced buildings”
    –>I can give you a couple of examples: Brickell North and South have better lobbies. That lobby seems too little; there are only 4 chairs to seat the people? Perhaps is better in person, like you said.

    “They just added stone tops to all the outside tables by the pool and the roof deck”
    –> To tell you the truth, I don’t like those cobblestones as the best material for pools. I prefer limestone.

    Another issue is the limited bathroom and closet space.

  389. Enzo,

    see my replys below yours, but you need to see the building in person, cause the pictures don’t show you enough about the building

    “again the thing I don’t like the most is the carpet in the halls, again I don’t the capet in halls in many of buildings.”
    –> I agree, as the pictures you sent illustrate that. The hall looks commercial, no sconces, wrong color, dark.
    ———right, and I have noticed that most of these middile of road new brickell buildings have bad pattern and color hall carpet.

    “- the kichens are about average, nice equipment, very queit dish washerI like the white cabnits in my unit and they are all 42 inch upper cabnits, which look very nice”
    –> I was referring to the flashy blue color. I like the appliances, but it seems that there’s an island or counter missing.
    ———kicten depends on floor plans, that’s the smaller unit’s kicten in the picture

    “the gym is average, it could be largered and could have some free weights, but if works well for me.”
    –>By the pictures, the gym doesn’t look that great. And the fact there’s no free weights is a downer. I mean, couldn’t they put a stack of free weights there? I guess the residents will have to do that on their own dime.
    —— they plan to add them, again it’s a minor thing for me. Cause I look at the big stuff first, like the loction, price and view first, how quickly I can get to the highways, etc then I look at the smaller stuff, like the common areas, gym, etv. To me the PROs well out way the CONs, but others may be looking for different things.

    “I don’t agree the lobby looks as good or better then other same priced buildings”
    –>I can give you a couple of examples: Brickell North and South have better lobbies. That lobby seems too little; there are only 4 chairs to seat the people? Perhaps is better in person, like you said.
    ——— again you need to see the building in person. The lobby is much more larger then the pictire shows. the picture shows only a section of the lobby. The lobby is like 70-80 feet by 35 feet, and it’s a tall 12 foot cieling.

    “They just added stone tops to all the outside tables by the pool and the roof deck”
    –> To tell you the truth, I don’t like those cobblestones as the best material for pools. I prefer limestone.
    ——— it’s better then patterned concrete and they are very diurable – if you like limestone then you need to buy a condo one of the more expenive high-end buildings, this again is a middle of road new building like a lot of the new buildings in Brickell

    Another issue is the limited bathroom and closet space.
    ——-the closets size is Ok for me, but I agree the bathrooms are small, but again they are Ok for me.

  390. Joe, in the 4 ambassadors complex (on the right as you head onto the brickell key causeway), they converted dead spaces/excess common areas into saleable units. Some were internal rooms with no windows. If you dig into the sales records, look for the lowest sales for these buildings (sub $75k) and you should find some of these windowless gems.

    Some of the newer condo buildings have “party rooms” etc in prime areas. Look for some of these to be converted over in the future to help fund the HOAs.

    The reason many buildings dont have free weights is the noise from weights dropping on the ground. If the gym is on the ground floor, no problem, but in many buildings there are units below, so weight machines only. Make sense I suppose.

  391. owneratinfinity,

    Some don’t know but the majority of units being sold there have unfinished floors and stairs. The owner still has to deal with that extra expense own their own, on top of the absurd price being asked. The public storage isn’t finished yet. The layouts were poorly designed, thus wasting space. They charge for air space on splits. In my opinion, the asking price is too high even at $200 /sf.

  392. Enzo,
    You said,

    Some don’t know but the majority of units being sold there have unfinished floors and stairs.
    —–that is correct

    The owner still has to deal with that extra expense own their own, on top of the absurd price being asked.
    — thats is correct however most of buildings that I have looked at in brickell in the same price range also had unfinished floors or cheap carpet in the units. However infinity;s price are in line with the market, which is at around 200per sqaure foot for this middle of road building.
    If you dont want to spend the money to put in the floors in then buy a short sale or a repo one of the other buildings. There are no short sales or repo in infinity. I did not want to mess with a short sale or a repo, I rather buy new from a developer.

    The public storage isn’t finished yet.
    —that is not correct, the storage units are completed

    The layouts were poorly designed, thus wasting space.
    — depends on the unit, there units that are better designed then other unit, my unit is one of ones that are better deisgned, the only that could be better in the design of my unit is that the master bedroom bath could be larger, however it’s perfect for me.

    They charge for air space on splits. In my opinion, the asking price is too high even at $200 /sf.
    —- then you need to wait for see if they lower the prices in the infinity lower then $200 square floot, or pick one of the 1 story units with a better designed floorplans. 1 story unit have no lofts so there are no wasted open spaces.
    __ again I like the loft idea and I am ok with them adding the square foot of the loft into the total sqaure, cause the loft idea is worth it to me
    —-again for me the location, the price and the azmaing view (a hour ago I just said another azmaing direct moon rasie that I see from my condo the moment I walk into the door. It came over fisher island, a big yellow moon relefecting the water and on the ocean – it’s looked like something from a post card from some cool south pacfic island) of my condo was the best value that I found in all the condos I looked at in Miami and Miami Beach.

  393. OwneratInfinity,

    Thank you very much for your detailed and honest answers, even romantic a bit with your description of the moon over Fisher Island. I just vividly imagined it. I’ll probably write to your e-mail with some of the questions. Meanwhile in condoreports I found that some units were sold for $135,000(approx) and these are smaller lofts looking to the west. They also have 2 balconies which is cute. I also heard that some views to the West are great since they are unobstructed and have even some distant water views. My question if you have been in these smaller lofts and if you liked what you saw.

  394. Lara,

    You said,

    Lara /Feb 28, 2010 at 11:16 pm Vote:

    Meanwhile in condoreports I found that some units were sold for $135,000(approx) and these are smaller lofts looking to the west.
    –> I think those in that price range was small 1 story studios not the small 1 bed 1.5 bath the lofts.

    I also heard that some views to the West are great since they are unobstructed and have even some distant water views.
    —> that is correct – no tallest buildings are facing west, so if you get a west view you can see for 30 miles and it you look north you can see the water of the bay, coconut grove, coral gables, and south miami, The west view is a great city view of the city lights for 30 miles,.

    My question if you have been in these smaller lofts and if you liked what you saw.
    —> the smaller lofts are nice, you need to be creative with your furnture placement and have smaller furnture peices.

    —-> if you live locally in the miami area, I would be happy to show you my condo and some of unlock empty condos in the building. This will give you a good idea of what these loft and non-loft units look like, plus you can the view from the roof top deck and the common areas. If interested just email me at owneratinfinity@aol.com and i will provide you my cell number and I can anwser any additional questions that you can may have.

  395. owneratinfinity,
    thanks for the info on Infinity. you provide great detail, sometimes a bit biased but certainly understood if you own in the building. just in the matter of disclosure, do you have interest (ownership, etc) in units other than the one you purchased and live in? do you work in the real estate industry? not being nosey, just need to put your comments into perspective if needed. thanks

  396. gables

    you said:
    thanks for the info on Infinity. you provide great detail, sometimes a bit biased but certainly understood if you own in the building. just in the matter of disclosure, do you have interest (ownership, etc) in units other than the one you purchased and live in?

    —No this the only piece of property I own at this time, like I said in the very first post in this blog #320 I am an user and this condo is my home.

    —FYI I have never owned a condo before in my life, I owned nice large houses in good areas. So condos living is still new to me and it is taking me a while to adjust. I don’t “love” living in a condo (they are much smaller then my house and you get much pritavicy, but since I want to live cheap and I want be close to the water and the beaches with a great water view, (so I can ride my bicycle on long rides near the water and to the beach) a condo was my only choice.. In my mind there is no reason to live in Florida unless you can get a place with a water view, and a condo is the only way I can get a waterview and still live cheap.

    do you work in the real estate industry? not being nosey, just need to put your
    comments into perspective if needed. thanks
    —- no again in the my frist blog #320 I said I am not a realtor – not an investor – not a salesman for Infinity at brickell. I mangage large tech and non-tech prorgams and projects for corporations, I work nationally and international. This condo is my home and my home base. I own no other properties.

    —-I have not worked in the real estate industry oer say, however I managered many projects in the mortgage and tiltle insurace industries for many years. So as good little project manager I paid attendation to my clients and their needs and got deep into the creation of the business requirements that detailed what the client wants the project (computer system or whatever ) to do. This allowed me to really understand how the mortgage and title insurance businesses work and gave me alot of interaction with the execs and their staff within these two industries which I learned alot from. So when it came time for me to buy a house (again these houses where my home as an end user – I have never been an investor) I already understood the closing process, closing docs, HUD statement etc, tilte work, etc and almost understand as much as the realtor, the loan processor, the title agent, etc. This is why I don’t use a buyer realtlor agent when I BUY a home. Instead I get the seller to reduce their sale price (somewhat) to make up for the fact that they don’t have to pay commission to a buyer agent on the deal.

    —-Just FYI when I sold my last house back 11-2007, I priced it right and I worked a deal with the listing agent (I needed a listing agent cause I needed to have the house on the MLS and I wanted a listing on realtors.com so the buyer could see the great pictiures of my house on-line on their own) who was also a broker that she would only get 1% commiision (instead of 3%). Over the years I added I lot of upgrades to the house, a pool, spa, upgades in the kictchen, great yard, etc. I custom built the house in 1999, but since I maintained and updated it so well it looked like a new house still. The house was very very nice and it was the very best value for the money in the area.

    —Also I had the listiing agent put in the listing that if a buyer uses a buyer agent then the buyer agent only gets 1% (not 3 %) commission. However if the buyer’s agent brings in a Full price offer then the buyer agent gets another 1% commision for a total of 2% commision

    —Since I priced the house well and since its was in brand new condition – the house sold tp the first peolpe who walked in the day, the frist day it was on the MLS, for the FULL PRICE (the buyers who bought it saw the listing for it on relators.com and fall in love with it from looking at the great pictures of it on the reatlors.com) .

    —-At closing the listing agent got her 1% commission and the buyer agent got his 2% commission since it sold for full price. So in total I paid 3% commission to sell the house instead of normal 3%. It saved me a lot of money. Also each of us (me the seller and buyer) paid for our own closing costs.

    —It boils down to the fact I had a very good product to sell and it was priced so well that it was THE best vaule in the area. Both the listing agent/broker and buyer agent knew this true and that is why they accepted getting the lower commissions. Cause we all know it would sell fast and it did.

  397. I also recently bought a 2 bedroom unit at infinity and managed to rent it out before the contractor even finished the unit. I didn’t even have the chance to list it because my realtor friends who got word I was purchasing there told me they had several clients interested in the building and at the time there were 0 units available for rent. I was able to rent the 2 bedroom for $2400 which was even more than I had expected (props to my realtor).
    I bought in cash and am bringing in an annual return of ~5%.

  398. Renter Tom,

    Here is a report with the info from Moody’s that was used to make the prediction in the article that you posted a link to in post #346.

    http://www.nabe.com/rt/real/documents/Chen_NABE_01212010.pdf

    The 6% national decline seems reasonable and not much to argue over since I think sales will be mostly flat. They are predicting prices to fall by about 6% up until 2011 and then turn right back around and gain all of that 6% back by 2012. I actually think prices will just stay more or less flat over that time period.

    But here is where I really disagree and why I think their prediction for Miami is so drastic:

    “Foreclosure sales will pick up this spring as mortgage servicers figure out who can qualify for a modification and who can’t,” said Zandi. He figures there are at least 4.5 million mortgage loans either in foreclosure or clearly headed in that direction. When that additional inventory hits the market, it will provide numerous choices for buyers and encourage sellers to drop their listing prices.”

    That 4.5 million figure includes essentially all current delinquent mortgages. They are assuming that 100% of these mortgages will eventually go back to the banks as REO’s. I think that its unlikely that this happens. More than likely a portion of these mortgages will be refinanced. And the portion that does get foreclosed upon will take a long time. Case in point the declining foreclosure filling statistics in Miami-Dade. While they should be increasing they are actually decreasing. Once the banks get around to filling on many of these properties and going through the process a year or so will have passed.

    So while I agree that foreclosures will add to inventory for years to come I don’t see foreclosure inventory picking up that much this spring. More than likely they’ll continue to trickle out at the current pace.

    You can tell by the case/shiller predictions on page 3 of the PDF that this wave of foreclosures in the spring is why/where they think this major price reduction is going to come. Apparently they think a large wave of these foreclosures are going to come in the spring and work their way through the market leading the way for price appreciation in ’11 and ’12.

    Instead I think inventory levels will remain fairly constant because even though current sales levels should be reducing the inventory the new forecloses will keep adding to that amount to keep it constant. And inventory at constants levels will mean prices at constant levels. The only caveat is that the composition of these foreclosures will affect price fluctuations at different price points. For example, if the majority of foreclosures fall in the $300-$500k price range then this new inventory would put more of a price strain on this segment than it would another segment.

  399. Here is another article where someone from Moody’s makes a reference to the same forecast:

    http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/01/18/v-fullstory/1430050/2010-economic-outlook.html

    ” Chris Lafakis of Moody’s Economy.com said a backlog of foreclosures, the specter of higher interest rates and the expiration of the tax credit for first-time home buyers could send South Florida housing prices into a swoon again this year. Lafakis said he expects prices to drop another 30 percent before stabilizing in the fourth quarter of 2010.However, if the sales data “comes in a little bit stronger in the last two months of 2009, we could revise that forecast upward,” he said. “But we are still seeing a sizable decline.”

    Now a lot of this has to do with the fact that these websites are using slightly old forecasts to run articles. These articles are coming out in January and February and here they are already backing of their predictions with statements like the one above. Since they would have obviously had the sales data for November and December in January I can only assume these comments are from around mid November or earlier. Furthermore we already know that the sales data was very good for November and December, so I guess we just have to wait and see what they revise their forecast too.

    While I don’t agree with foreclosures I do agree about the tax credit and financing. I’m curious to see what will happen as the government exits the market.

  400. SLOTH

    You said,
    I also recently bought a 2 bedroom unit at infinity and managed to rent it out before the contractor even finished the unit. I didn’t even have the chance to list it because my realtor friends who got word I was purchasing there told me they had several clients interested in the building and at the time there were 0 units available for rent. I was able to rent the 2 bedroom for $2400 which was even more than I had expected (props to my realtor). I bought in cash and am bringing in an annual return of ~5%.

    —-> that is real good news, I am very happy for you. I know there is another 2/2.5 loft renting in the building for around that small amount (I belivie it’s renting for like $2300), so $2400 is very good for how the market is today

    —> I think we may of used the small contractor (CM consultanting) to finishout out units. They did my floors inside and on my patio, painted the entire place include the high cieling area, painted and finsihed my stair case, and the base board. They did a great job, first class, I wanted it well done since it would be my home.

    —-> For what I understand from the DYL Group the developer who is the developer for the infinity building they are not planning to rent the units out directlly, I guess it’s cause the FDIC can wait for them to sold. That is why there are so few units for rent in the building, however as more investors buy units in the building and then rent them out there will be more to rent.

    —-> Yes, I have seen for myself that there is a lot of peolpe interested in renting in the building. I guess they like the location, being only 2-3 blocks from Mary Brickell Village and only being 1 block north from 15th where the south brickell starts. It’s quiter and more residental starting at 15th street going south.

    —> Like all the buildings in the area, I am sure investors will be buying lots of units in infinity once they feel the price has went down enough. I also feel since the prices are getting cheaper and there are lot of smaller units (that will sell for under 150K,) facing west on lower floors, I think there will be some northerners buying these smaller units too as 2nd homes, so they get away from the cold up north in the winter.

    —-> One important thing – even though the building is around 83% empty, it doesnt mean that 83% of the units in the building are for sale. There are many pre-constrcutoon buyers that still would like to buy their units if they can get financing and it the developer could lower then original price for their unit. Some rather buy their unit, then losing their pre-contrusction deposit if the developer to could lower the price of their unit enough to make it make sense finanically.

    —-> So from what I gathered from developer the units that the developer is now selling (including the one I bought) are units that the developer knows for sure that the original pre-contruction buyer is not going to close on.

    —-> There are still tons of units for sale I am sure, but not every empty unit in the building is for sale, at least not at this moment.

  401. owneratinfinity and sloth,

    No offense but your constant rosy scenarios are starting to scare people away. If it’s too good to be true…We’ve seen that already with other posters here. Why would anyone rent a 2 bd there for $2,400, if units can be bought for $200 /sf as you say? There’s no reasonable justification for that (no credit, is that good?; no 20% down, is that good? seasonal rentals, is that good?)

    I heard that you can’t get anything there for less than $255 / sf, plus you have to add $10 / sf to finish the floors on your own dime, and call a carpenter to build bathroom cabinets since there are none. The bathrooms come with a cheap tub and pedestal sink. That must be another 2k, at least. I’m sure that your 2 bd up in the 50th floor is very spacious and have great views, but all 1 bd units seem small and have weird layouts. Check it for yourselves. Now, if you’re ok on paying over $200k (including the floor and cabinets) to have no storage, and no place to put your king size bed, your dinning table, or seating more than 10 people at a time, and entering your condo directly through the kitchen, go for it. If you’re a couple with lots of shoes and clothing + personal care stuff, then you’ll have a problem.

    Regarding some units being sold out, I have a list in front of me that states otherwise. As a matter of fact, rentals aren’t reason for bragging, bc who needs those high school dropout bartenders or escorts sharing a 2bd between 4 people?

    The problem with Miami now is that too many New Yorkers think they can sell the same NY lifestyle here: people paying $3,000 to live in a 300 sf studio. Some find value on that; I don’t.

  402. owneratinfinity said,

    “The public storage isn’t finished yet.
    —that is not correct, the storage units are completed”

    Call Kristine to double check then, if you don’t believe me. Make sure you ask if storage is complete for ALL units.

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