Bulk Condo Opportunity in Brickell

127 responses so far ↓

• 1 AJ /Jun 27, 2009 at 2:47 am  Vote:    

  Wow! Do we ever get to find out which downtown building that is? So some bulk buyer must have picked all of them up even before individuals could organize themselves into a group. People are sensing opportunity here?

• 2 Joe /Jun 27, 2009 at 3:06 am  Vote:    

  I bet half these deals are just paperwork shuffles from one LLC to a related LLC (or the like) to make it look like there’s more action than there really is.

  If there’s so much demand at reduced prices — and if I recall the last thread, it wasn’t even clear the price was that great — then why wouldn’t the developer just put them on the market at those prices?

  Maybe it’s just me, but “hold, hold, hold … fire sale!” seems like a strange way to do business.

• 3 JL /Jun 27, 2009 at 5:45 am  Vote:    

  Last Opportunity let me guess

  Seller: Jorge Perez

  Buyer: Jorge Perez dba I Need Buyers for My Brickell Condos llc

  ???

• 4 Joey Myers /Jun 27, 2009 at 8:06 am  Vote:    

  AJ why not put up 10 million and find out for yourself?? You ca afford it.

• 5 Lara /Jun 27, 2009 at 10:46 am  Vote:    

  Joe,

  I think you are wrong. Those prices were attractive for 2nd home buyers and some were relatively attractive for investors. So I am not surprised that they were bought within 2 weeks mainly by out of state and foreign buyers. Why did it take 2 weeks? Some of them actually took their time to fly in and look at the units.

  Why seller did not put them on MLS? the seller made prices attractive enough for bulk buyers (5 aprt. at a time to buy them). Easier to deal with. I think if step by step all remaining units were reduced to such level the whole building will be sold in a matter of several weeks. For those who bought units at pre construction prices there is a problem on one hand. IT would be the problem for them anyway. HOA though will be in much better shape.

• 6 Renter Tom /Jun 27, 2009 at 12:19 pm  Vote:    

  We will see if these types of deals do much good. We are in a multi-year (possibly decade long) supply shock coupled with demand destruction and a shadow inventory of new construction, foreclosures, REO’s, and homes not put on the market or taken off the market. When you consider financing such a purchase for condos or any home in the jumbo+ range it just makes it worse. Anyone that tells you the South Florida market will turn around quickly is nuts…. I have heard the “opportunity” song and dance more than once…..without a concrete plan to generate cash flows, these invsetment “opportunities” will be losers.

• 7 Renter Tom /Jun 27, 2009 at 12:35 pm  Vote:    

  World Wealth Report….always an interesting read. So much for the wealthy being able to withstand the market….25% of Ultra-HNWI (UHNWI) are now just Very-HNWI (VHNWI or mid-tier millionaires). Click my name for the pdf link….

  ———————

  “HNWI POPULATION AND WEALTH CONTRACT SIGNIFICANTLY
  Attheendof2008,theworld’spopulationofhighnetworthindividuals(HNWIs
  • 1)wasdown14.9%fromtheyear
  before,whiletheirwealthhaddropped19.5%. The unprecedented declines wiped out two robust years of growth
  in 2006 and 2007, reducing both the HNWI population and its wealth to below levels seen at the close of 2005.
  
  • Ultra-HNWIs2sufferedmoreextensivelossesinfinancialwealththantheHNWIpopulationasawhole. The
  Ultra-HNWI population fell 24.6%, as the group’s wealth dropped 23.9%, pushing many down into the ‘mid-tier
  millionaire’3 pool.
  TheglobalHNWIpopulationisstillconcentrated,buttheranksareshifting.
  • The U.S., Japan and Germany
  together accounted for 54.0% of the world’s HNWI population in 2008, up very slightly from 53.3% in 2007.
  China’s HNWI population surpassed that of the U.K. to become the fourth largest in the world. Hong Kong’s HNWI
  population shrank the most in percentage terms (down 61.3%).
  HNWIwealthisforecasttostartgrowingagainastheglobaleconomyrecovers.
  • By 2013, we forecast global
  HNWI financial wealth to recover to $48.5 trillion, after advancing at a sustained annual rate of 8.1%. By 2013,
  we expect Asia-Pacific to overtake North America as the largest region for HNWI financial wealth.”

• 8 Kramer /Jun 27, 2009 at 1:45 pm  Vote:    

  I hate to say that I agree with rentertom but I agree with rentertom. The economy is not sprouting green shoots. Those shoots are turning into brown weeds. Im having a hard time believing that a bulk buyer paid about $200. per sq ft on average for 50 some units at 1060 Brickell. A second tier building nowhere near the water and then claim that they are cash flow positive. NOT. A one bedroom new building condo can now be had for $1300. per month. The owners nut is per month approx. $500. property tax – $500. HOA. Next figure in his cost of cost of capital – cost to rent out – vacancy factors and repairs over time. How is that a good investment? And dont tell me that he’s gonna sell within five years at $400. per sq ft in capital gains.

• 9 Kramer /Jun 27, 2009 at 1:59 pm  Vote:    

  MIAMI DADE COURT
  DISCOVERS 15,000. UNSERVED FORECLOSURES – DBR

  ” A Miami Dade Circuit Court judge discovered a bombshell of mammoth proportions – more than 15,000. foreclosure cases filed this year have not been served. It’s the latest shoe to drop in a foreclosure crisis garnering nationwide attention, and an unwelcome discovery in the face of state budget cuts that produced layoffs for courts and clerks. The backlog is critical because cases where homeowners havent been served within four months are subject to dismissal”.

• 10 Kramer /Jun 27, 2009 at 2:02 pm  Vote:    

  Peninsula Condominium in Aventura is the first Miami Dade to document Chinese Drywall.

• 11 Kramer /Jun 27, 2009 at 2:10 pm  Vote:    

  CITIGROUP HALTS SOME MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS – dbr

  “Citigroup suspended loan applications at a unit that produced half of its $115 billion in mortgages last year after a review found that some property appraisals and income verification documents were missing. The correspondent division, which buys loans from banks and independent mortgage firms, stopped accepting new loans Tuesday afternoon and will restart July 6, 2009 Citi said in a letter to clients. The New York based company said it will use the time to change procedures and fix the omissions”.

• 12 Donzi /Jun 27, 2009 at 2:25 pm  Vote:    

  I suspect we will see higher and higher interest rates as US Debt and Deficits continue to grow exponentially. Add on increased cost for so called “Green Electric Generation” coupled with rapidly increasing rates of real estate taxation and you have a perfect storm for the real possibility of continued downward pressure on prices. As icicing on the cake hurricane season is fast approaching and insurance companies continue to charge more for less coverage. Hard for me to make any kind of positive case for a return to the good old days in my lifetime. Pays to rent and not buy, IMHO.

• 13 Renter Tom /Jun 27, 2009 at 2:34 pm  Vote:    

  Donzi — The doom and gloom are real. If you can buy something for less than the cost to build in a stable area/building, then it might make sense…and I am assuming no cost for the land in the price. That is, if you can buy for less than the cost of the structure with no cost for land, can’t be all bad though.

• 14 gables /Jun 27, 2009 at 6:38 pm  Vote:    

  Japan suffered through years of collapsed RE prices. I never thought it could/would happen here. But enough time has passed in this crisis to indicate this is a very real possibility. I have a sinking feeling at the end of each year people will say, we are at the bottom so i might as well buy, and the bottom still sinks-slowly. You dont realize you are in quicksand until well after it has undermined your mobility. we are so accustomed to a rapid paced society where outcomes are evident within weeks, that we may be completely unaware of this secular bear tearing us apart over the course of a decade. think about it, how well off are you compared with the year 2000? sorry for the gloom but i am beginning to feel like the japanese in the 90’s.

• 15 Petronius /Jun 27, 2009 at 9:50 pm  Vote:    

  Seems very much like the Japanese scenario so far, even to the point of the magnitude of price drops in some markets being 60% (I believe that was the peak to trough decline in Japanese cities beyond central Tokyo). The nominal price levels reached during the peak of the bubble won’t be reached again for years to come. And in real terms, those who bought at the peak of the bubble have locked in their loss until a bubble of similar magnitude inflates again (if ever).

  Nominal prices could appreciate faster than in Japan depending on the future path of inflation. Japan experienced virtually no inflation in the last 20 years as periods of deflation balanced out against mild inflation the rest of the time. I guess some inflation in the US would at least help debtors stuck with underwater mortgages but still no real return on their investments.

  The really frightening question is will there be parallel development in the job market. Japan’s average household income has dropped 15% since 1993, mostly due to global competitive pressures and a restructuring in their job market toward more temporary jobs. The US has now experienced no net job creation in the last decade (negative if you just look at private sector job creation). Will our job market keep heading along the same path as Japan’s?

• 16 Joe /Jun 28, 2009 at 1:40 am  Vote:    

  gables — All of the angst aside, unless my math is bad, people still should be better off today than they were in 2000. The scary question is, will people be better off in 2015 than they are in 2009, and I have to tell you, I’m not optimistic, especially the way Obama is spending money.

  —

  Lara — I have to disagree with you. I just don’t see how 50 or 100 empty units that sat unsold for a year at price “x” suddenly became great investments at price “x minus __%”, where __% didn’t seem to be such a huge discount relative to (peak) pre-construction prices.

  As I said above, it makes no sense as a seller to hold, hold, hold and then, boom, announce a fire sale for 50 or 100 units. If the units indeed were purchased by investors, then the building either turns into a glorified rental complex or those units go right back on the market. Neither one of those scenarios seems like good news from a market-recovery standpoint.

• 17 Joe /Jun 28, 2009 at 1:52 am  Vote:    

  RT, gables, Petronius, et al. — I agree with your comments above. Quite frankly, I believe the current downturn will look like nothing compared to the inevitable day of financial reckoning that awaits the U.S.

  As far as I can tell, none of the underlying issues that led to this recession and overall crisis have been addressed let alone solved. The federal and state governments are spending more and more money, the average American is in debt up to his or her ears, unemployment is trending higher, and job creation not only has stagnated but declined because of left-wing tax policies that drive jobs offshore.

  Does anyone see a path, let alone a quick path, back to the prosperity of the ’80s, or even the phony-baloney prosperity of the ’90s and ’00s? I don’t see one. If people (and governments!) are struggling to get by, let alone pay off current debt, I see no way for the U.S. standard of living or per capita net worth to rise anytime soon. And this is TODAY. Just wait until the Boomers retire en masse and Medicare and Social Security explode.

  Almost 50% of Americans pay no income taxes and the other 50% are getting fed up. There’s just no way the math adds up anymore, and it seems like things will get much worse before they get better. Hate to be such a downer, but that’s the way I see things.

• 18 Renter Tom /Jun 28, 2009 at 11:22 am  Vote:    

  Joe – I have to agree. I have said that what the government is doing is like a credit bubble shell game and simply shifting the debt burden from individuals to everyone. That is a mistake. The system we have allows people to fail and those that were prudent and planned can continue and succeed. Now, with massive govt spending that is crazy, the debt burden is no imposed on everyone regardless of the past actions. We’re all being punished…including the prudent and future generations. The madness must end. I can’t imagine the obligations we have in the next 10-20 years……. Who will be able to retire with these tax burdens? The irony is that the more tax burdens the more people will need the govt for help since they won’t be able to afford things like health care because their take home will be less! Just look at the post office….it is like the USSR…and we will have the for health care and many many other things…. The Obama debt legacy could be THE factor to remove the US as the superpower. The US must grow but hard to do with the debt. Oh well, it is what it is. The US standard of living will decline for most Americans unless we really become creative and productive.

• 19 gables /Jun 28, 2009 at 11:31 am  Vote:    

  Joe,
  The sad part is most folks are not better off now than in 2000, other than a few executives who control their own destiny in a company. Job security is nonexistent compared to 2000, debt levels are absurd compared to 2000, many folks have a similar level of savings in their 401k as they did in 2000. And when you subtract the debt from assets obtained since 2000, most people are in negative territory. Personally, i think this is a necessary, although difficult, realignment of the financial world. But the reality is we have not had much true wealth creation in the past decade. In fact, there has been nearly twice as much job creation from government than private industry. It has taken several years, but the reality is setting in on a lost decade. I always thought the smart money could see it coming, but the lost decade began several years ago, before anybody realized it was upon us.

• 20 Renter Tom /Jun 28, 2009 at 1:27 pm  Vote:    

  “Found out a few weeks ago that Marc Anthony and Jennifer Lopez purchased a penthouse at Icon Brickell. about 17 hours ago”

  Yep – a lot of “celebrities” have made dumb financial decisions regarding real estate that have killed them financially. They forget the enormous holding costs. Ed McMahon, Michael Jackson, Bernie Kosar….so many, so many….

• 21 DJ /Jun 28, 2009 at 2:14 pm  Vote:    

  Visited a fried that lives in The Ivy in Brickell last night. What a dump. They had a guard gate, but no guard, so I had to drive through the exit to get in. The vallet was full, which I don’t understand because the building can’t be anywhere close to capacity. When I aksed where I could park and they looked at me dumbly and were like ‘I don’t know.’ There was no one manning the front desk, so once I did park I just walked right in. Etc., etc. Between that and Wind by Neo right next door, there’s what, over 1,000 units? I don’t see how these buildings can possibly succeed, ever.

• 22 Renter Tom /Jun 28, 2009 at 4:05 pm  Vote:    

  This one is for all the AJ’s out there in the world….

  http://dilbert.com/strips/comic/2009-06-26

• 23 Kramer /Jun 28, 2009 at 6:18 pm  Vote:    

  DJ

  Any information on “Wind”? The buildings lender foreclosed on the remaining units after about 40% of the original buyers closed on their units. The bank was Washington Mutual (now Wells Fargo). Any fire sale prices there? Who is paying the maintenance? Im betting those three buildings “Wind” – “Mint” – “Ivy” all go into receivership.

• 24 drew299 /Jun 28, 2009 at 6:26 pm  Vote:    

  lara, please explain why you believe that those are attractive prices ??

  is because things used to be more expensive ?? like when there was cred in the economy ?
  like when people had jobs ??

  when miami was considered a desirable place to live ?

  you mentioned second home buyers ?

  look miami condos are done!!!!!! do the math people, the only way these things work is if u love the area and plan to live there a long time, your not reselling your units fo much more than they are going 4 now…(except for the cream) the rest ….

  “you can fool me once ??? whats that expression…………..

  by the way everybody by crocs (stock) it used to be -what 100 ?? now its 4 ???

  it used to be high therefore i should buy it right ???

  its alwways hard when a a relationship ends and you keep hanging on hoping, he will call…………………..

  same with miami he aint calling and prices are heading down much further…………….

  simple math

• 25 Wild Bill /Jun 28, 2009 at 6:36 pm  Vote:    

  NBA All-Star Shaquille O’Neal will buy these bulk units. He just lost millions on his single family home and wants to make back.

• 26 drew299 /Jun 28, 2009 at 6:45 pm  Vote:    

  obama nation people

  cap and trade +health care reform $+ hundreds of new taxes =THE END OF WHATS LEFT OF THE MIDDLE CLASS

  UNLESSS YOU HAVE GOV JOB YOU WILL HAVE NO JOB

  PEOPLE MUST PRESERVE ANY AND ALL CASH NOT DUMP IT IN AN OVERPRICED BOX

  IN THE MIDDLE OF NOWHERE

• 27 gables /Jun 29, 2009 at 12:35 pm  Vote:    

  Lucas,
  Any chance we could get an update on some numbers in Brickell regarding sales activity and prices? I am quite interested to see how things have evolved over the past 6 months or so. My feeling is quite negative, but the numbers will reveal the truth. Very curious whether activity has picked up, and if so, how much is relegated to cheap distressed properties versus owners who are able to move a property which is not under direct financial duress. I do not get the sense we are reaching any type of financial equilibrium point is sale prices, but your numbers do a great service towards that end.

• 28 BMW m3 /Jun 29, 2009 at 1:32 pm  Vote:    

  Lucas talks a good game but I challenge him to a debate to be broadcast on YouTube. Realtor conman vs scholar. Resolved : The Miami real estate crisis continues and will continue for many years to come.

• 29 Lucas Lechuga /Jun 29, 2009 at 2:07 pm  Vote:    

  gables,

  I hope to have the new closing rate numbers posted by Thursday. It usually take me 4-5 hours to collect all the numbers for each building. I’m going to try to chip away at it over the next couple of days and hopefully write the blog post either Wednesday or Thursday.

  BMW,

  What makes me a “Realtor conman”? Additionally, what makes you a “scholar”? What are your credentials?

• 30 AJ /Jun 29, 2009 at 3:07 pm  Vote:    

  Lucas,
  Do not react to Mo.

  Also , can you wait a few more days to publish the condo closing rates (say like July 15th or so), thereby you can have all the transactions until June 30th included in your next report (as according to you, it takes 2 weeks for a closing to get recorded).

• 31 BMW m3 /Jun 29, 2009 at 3:46 pm  Vote:    

  You’re a conman because you make money off the misery of others. I’m a scholar because I’ve been right and you’ve been wrong all along the way. It’s always a great time to buy according to you. Where would you like to meet for our debate?

• 32 Lara /Jun 29, 2009 at 4:14 pm  Vote:    

  Drew 299, this is in response to to you message #24. You realize that I was speaking about particular (5 aprt, at a time) bulk purchase ad that Lucas placed sometime ago. Did you speak to him or his partner in re to that particular building> Did you see the prices?

  In this particular luxury building with amenities and views prices became very affordable for people with decent income (2nd home). Some were attractive even for investors when with 20% down rent actually covers all expenses. Because of the building in some time it had a potential for appreciation or even immediate flip with a little profit. I am not at liberty to discuss particular units in this building since Lucas did not publish the name of it but advised to call him, anyway it is too late now since all of them were sold.

• 33 Lucas Lechuga /Jun 29, 2009 at 4:20 pm  Vote:    

  Lara,

  I actually did reveal the name of the development that had the previous bulk opportunity in this post. Hover over the link that I provided in the post and you’ll see the name of the development. That was my subtle way of letting everyone know the name. I’m surprised nobody picked up on it.

• 34 condoswindler /Jun 29, 2009 at 4:20 pm  Vote:    

  Lucas-yes please wait on the posting so that we get closer to end of June and therefore Q2 2009/ 2009 6mos. Looking forward to it as know just how brutal it will be-also please make a note on that report as far as what percent of the sales were short/REO’s, and those from developers.

  Do not inlude the Bulk sale or with that make a note as the numbers will definately effect averages.

  Just a thought

• 35 makes me think /Jun 29, 2009 at 4:44 pm  Vote:    

  Joe, RT, gables, Petronius ,
  are you guys getting paid to get on this blog to repeat the same shit post after, post, day after day? Damn guys, we already know the economy if f’d up, we already know that people who choose to buy condos or realestate now will loose all their money and yes we all know that 5 years from now the USA will surpass haiti as the poorest country in the western hemispehere. Do you have to keep posting the same shit every day. Guess what, for many people life still goes on even after they loose their condos or their 401K.
  Believe it or not many people around the world find a way to live a very fulfilling and productive life without ever having a condo or 401k. You guys need to get out of your mama’s basement and get a fucking life. Get out and buy a friend a beer tonight, maybe that will change your outlook on life. I’m sorry folks, I just got back from a mini vacation and feel soo good and happy about life but I get on this blog and all these fear mongering stooges can talk about is the world ending. Fuck it, if the world is going to end then let it end, I’m not afraid I’m going to enjoy life until that times come then what ever happens, happens. I feel confident I have the survival skills necessary to weaher any economic storm that comes along. I’m nott going to sit around talking about it or waiting for it to come. Folks, if you want to buy a condo and can afford it then do your research and buy yourslef a condo. Life is short, it is not a spectator’s sport, if you have been dreaming of owning a condo in miami then by all means go out buy yourself a condo and cross that off the list and move on to the next item on that list. To hell with these naysayers, they will alway be there on the sidelines watching others enjoy life. They don’t have the balls or the money to participate. Life is not about spending every minute of the day worring about saving every penny in your bank account or if your condo price will drop any more. You don’t go out your door saying “I hope I don’t get hit by a bus today”. That’s just not how we live life, we live life expecting the best but we are prepared to deal with the worst.

• 36 gables /Jun 29, 2009 at 4:59 pm  Vote:    

  MMT, sorry to have hit a nerve with you. but i am not the one you should be angry at. i am only stating where i think we are and are headed. you really want to deal with the people who are sitting on the sidelines requesting too much for their property, not those of us sitting on the sidelines waiting for prices to reach proper levels. the world will be a lot happier when that equilibrium is reached and people are happily buying their new homes and filling up the new neighborhoods. target the anger at the banks and underwater owners who are not letting this occur, not the people who are interested in moving forward. i enjoy going out and spending money with friends and family, but i wont piss away years of savings on some haphazard thoughtless large scale financial purchase which could put myself and family in agonizing debt for years to come. your description of financial decision making is exactly how the world got into this mess in the first place, and it sure will not be the way to right the ship.

• 37 Juan /Jun 29, 2009 at 5:01 pm  Vote:    

  MMT I agree with you 100%. I think all these guys are going to be very suprised by the number of closings.

• 38 Visionary /Jun 29, 2009 at 5:04 pm  Vote:    

  makes me think,

  Well spoken ! I fully concur with you.

• 39 Lucas Lechuga /Jun 29, 2009 at 5:14 pm  Vote:    

  Juan, Yep. I think they’ll all be VERY surprised. For example, in February 1060 Brickell had a closing rate of around 41%. When I visited the development last week they only had around 60 units left. I was told that they’ve been able to close around 230 units since the first week of April. Most of those sales were to individual buyers. I know that 500 Brickell is doing very well also.

• 40 gables /Jun 29, 2009 at 5:19 pm  Vote:    

  Nobody is stopping you from buying a condo today. In fact the selection is greater than you could ever have imagined. So for MMT, Juan and Visionary, why are you still browsing this blog rather than decorating your newly purchased condo? I am simply a pessimist when the situation calls for it, and an optimist when the currents change. I simply have not felt any significant changes in the currents until now. But I will say this, I was ready to buy a couple of years ago, and reading this blog certainly opened my eyes to the dangers at that point. This blog is at its best when it is not cheerleading a false economy, but laying out both good and bad issues of the condo market at the time. And unfortunately, right now the negatives definitely outweight the positives.

• 41 gables /Jun 29, 2009 at 5:23 pm  Vote:    

  Lucas,
  You can certainly do your part to change our mindsets. Provide that data, let us see what is happening. A positive and transparent market is the best way to return consumer confidence. Give me a reason to be positive so I dont have to be negative.

• 42 Kramer /Jun 29, 2009 at 5:34 pm  Vote:    

  Im definately inviting MakesMeThink to my next party. You woulda been a big hit at Auschwitz.

• 43 makes me think /Jun 29, 2009 at 6:04 pm  Vote:    

  No body is cheerleading people into buying, well except AJ but you guys are worst than AJ. There are people who has a good secure job and enough assets who has been waiting on the sidelines for an opportunity to buy a home to live in. if hose people has done their research and are aware of the potiential pitfalls then they should go ahead and make their purchase and move on with the rest of their lives. I am not looking to buy a condo I “control” several homes and at these prices I’m looking to “control” even more. I get upset because you guys get on here with the deliberate intent to scare off buyers. Some condos are still way to expensive for me but who the hell am I to say what someone else with more resources should pay. I thought that opportunity Lucas had a few weeks was a good deal for someone with the resources but some people got on here and bashed the deal, some without even knowing the details. Some folks get on here and every post is about how we all are goin to die tomorrow. Shit if that is the case I don’t need to be reminded about if every minute of the day, let me enjoy my life until the end comes. People on the sidelines need to be reminded that life is no all about sitting around waiting for the destruction of the US Economy, there is still life to be lived. Bottom line is Condo/Real Estate in miami had gotten way out of line and for many people it was just plain dumb to have bought at those over inflated prices. Prices in SOME places has come down considerably. If you see a deal you like and can afford and has done your research then go ahead and buy if that’s what you want to do. Don’t let the fear or the fear mongers dictate your life. As a general rule you should never make a decision based out of fear. It is the same fear that caused people to rush into buing real estate because the fear of being “priced out” of the market. Well. guess what? Now fear of US Economic doom is keeping you out of the market. Both are equally bad These guys on this blog spewing this BS is no different than the RE Agents telling you to buy at high prices because they weren’t making anymore land. It is the same argument just different sides of the equation.

• 44 Kramer /Jun 29, 2009 at 6:19 pm  Vote:    

  MakesmeThink

  Now we have to be lectured by a guy who a few months back in a post claimed that Herbert Hoover was one of our greatest presidents. Its kinda like going to Bernie Madoff for personal financial advice. Would you care for some cheese with that whine of yours?

• 45 AJ /Jun 29, 2009 at 6:29 pm  Vote:    

  Juan,
  Yes, I am also in the same belief that people are going to be surprised with the new closing rate.
  In the 1800 Club, The developer said he had 16 closings on the table and one by one all of them are closing. As per the last Lucas report, 1800 Club was 68.8% closed. Now only 117 flats are left with the developer out of the 149 flats he had the last time Lucas made the post. That is a very impressive tally indeed. Especially considering the fact that for the first 2-3 months after Lucas posted the condo closing rate, that figure did not move a single Milli meter. All this flurry of activity happened in the last month or two.
  Right now the 1800 club is 75% closed. That means 6% of the building just got sold very recently. No matter how you look at it, that is nothing to be sneezed at.
  If Lucas report shows the closing rate for 1800 club as less than 75%, it is only because some closings did not get reflected yet in the public records. But our building only has 117 flats left with the developer out of 469. I am extremely happy about that. Probably other buildings will show good results too. That is why I asked Lucas to wait a couple of weeks so that he wil get the June results included so we can see the results for the IIQ of 2009.

• 46 Wild Bill /Jun 29, 2009 at 6:47 pm  Vote:    

  Seems like the real estate bulls are running on empty. If investors who aren’t covering their bills a 100% closing rate doesn’t mean anything. You can only shuffle money around for so long before you turn into a Burnie Madoff. The key to a buildings health reflected in Miami Dade Court documents.

• 47 makes me think /Jun 29, 2009 at 7:31 pm  Vote:    

  Kramer,
  Herbert Hoover? I don’t know anything about hoover and I doubt I’ve ever had a conversation about hoover much less blog about him. Check those facts again!

• 48 gables /Jun 29, 2009 at 8:08 pm  Vote:    

  AJ,
  Are the closing prices recorded anywhere? Can we actually see the price people are closing these units at? I know we can get this info from resale units, but i do not know about initial closings. would be great to see if these units are selling at a discount or people are actually buying at their preconstruction prices. if the units are closing at the initially agreed upon prices, makes me more confident in RE. if they are closing at discounted prices, still have some time to investigate.

• 49 Joe /Jun 29, 2009 at 9:19 pm  Vote:    

  This blog gets funnier by the day.

  First, a self-described optimist and lover of life (“makes me think”) posts one of the most negative diatribes in the history of the site.

  Then a realtor(s) pop in gloating about closing rates … in a city with double-digit unemployment and massive tax shortfalls.

  What next? Will there be chocolate milk in the water fountains tomorrow?

  I’d love to know who’s buying all these cookie-cutter units in Miami. It sure as hell isn’t the unemployed and/or debt-ridden locals, and if it’s outside money, why would they buy downtown when the Beach is overflowing with inventory?

  I’d also love to know the delinquency rates of some of these buildings, both mortgage and HOA. If 10% of a building’s units sold but another 10% slipped into delinquency on mortgage and/or HOA, that amounts to zero progress, if not a net negative.

  By the way, MMT, I’m a happy guy, too, and I couldn’t care less how people spend their own money. I just call ‘em like I see ‘em here, and right now all I see are negative indicators.

• 50 Wild Bill /Jun 29, 2009 at 9:45 pm  Vote:    

  Miami police bolster Brickell presence
  http://www.miamiherald.com/news/breaking-news/story/1120278.html

  “Operation Difference comes just weeks after a woman was raped along Southeast 10th Street and Brickell Bay Drive in an area that residents described as extremely safe.”

  “The area, which includes Brickell Avenue and Coral Way, has seen a recent increase in burglaries of motor vehicles and robberies.”

  No comment.

• 51 AJ /Jun 29, 2009 at 10:03 pm  Vote:    

  gables, I don’t know.

  Joe, #49 is so full of holes, I don’t even have the time or patience to offer a rejoinder. But something you said has to be highlighted as it is really funny: “why would they buy downtown when the Beach is overflowing with inventory?”

  You will never understand. Lets leave it that way.

• 52 Renter Tom /Jun 29, 2009 at 10:04 pm  Vote:    

  makes me think – Regarding post #35, did you just read that Dilbert comic or are you in the angry stage or finally capitulating???? Perhaps we are near a bottom then? It won’t be funny if you buy a condo and you hopelessly watch it go into a condo death spiral as one by one owners stop paying their dues leaving the other owners holding the bag, that will happen with more condo buildings this year. It really comes down to absorption of the units to END users, not resellers. The fact is the shadow inventory of units not listed on mls, foreclosure not filed, people on the sidelines TO SELL (not buy, do you have any fricking clue of the number of people I know that are waiting on the sidelines to sell, the pent up supply is larger than we probably realize), etc. This structural change has years to play out. Does that mean there are not opportunities, no, it does mean be pretty darn prudent as you can’t just take up stakes and sell your place in three years if you change your mind and not bring cash to the closing table. Why invite people into ruining their financial lives? The stress harms people, their relationships and marriages, etc….most people buy real estate with borrowed money so why encourage people to take on a debt burden like that??? Cheers!

• 53 drew299 /Jun 29, 2009 at 10:26 pm  Vote:    

  lara i realy dont know i was half asleep, i think i like you……gary shef just homered upper deck shot wow…………

  oh sorry , anyway i am a big fan …..

  i was just rambling but it just seems so many people are in dreamland its “human nature” (m.jackson reference)

  just because theres bulk buyers does not mean its the bottom

  you need an economy to support housing

  people wake up

  did anyone see that miami herald article on heath care fraud today, was she saying other people do it too
  whats the big deal ????/

  that paper is hilarious

• 54 Joe /Jun 30, 2009 at 7:36 am  Vote:    

  Me in #49 — “why would [buyers or investors from outside Miami] buy downtown when the Beach is overflowing with inventory?”

  AJ in #51 — “You will never understand. Lets leave it that way.”

  – Are you seriously telling us that the cookie-cutter condos in downtown, Brickell, etc., are a better investment, or in a better location, or have more amenities, than any of the glut of available units on the Beach? You’re not telling us that, right? … Right?

• 55 SwissLuxury.Com /Jun 30, 2009 at 8:13 am  Vote:    

  Here are some reason why I personally choose to live Downtown instead of SOBE:

  1. We fly 3-4 times per month and can get to MIA in 7-8 minutes.
  2. Enjoy being part of a dynamic emerging area. New restaurants, shops, galleries, buildings, parks, museums, etc, are opening weekly…..kind of feels like an urban pioneer.
  3. You get twice the quality of apartment at 1/2 the price. (The bulk deal, which was a steal, could have put you in a brand new luxury building, in the heart of a major city, with insane views for less than $200psf……this is not happening at the Continuum (yet?).
  4. Not really into being surrounded by tourists 24/7……think Memorial Day on Collins or club goers stumbling by in the early AM.
  5. If we choose to go to Miami beach it is only a 15 minute drive but own a place in the Caribbean and are there once a month so don’t go to the beach in FL very often.
  6. Better business location that is closer for the clients and industry contacts we work with.
  7. More interesting city views……at night the beach doesn’t look like much and you can get bay & even ocean views on the higher floors downtown.

  Different lifestyles appeal to different kinds of people and there certainly is no shortage of units to choose from on either side of Biscayne Bay, but the banks and developers can’t hold them forever and they are no longer in denial that the market is going to bounce back quickly so pricing has and should continue to be more favorable. Best of luck to all!! D

• 56 Joe /Jun 30, 2009 at 9:00 am  Vote:    

  Swiss — Thanks for the post. Very interesting.

  However, it doesn’t sound like you fit the demographic we were debating above. If you work downtown, and have a second home elsewhere, it makes perfect sense to live downtown. But if you’re from NYC or Europe or Toronto and *Miami* would be the getaway home, I can’t see how anything in Miami beats anything on the Beach, either for location, amenities, investment potential, etc.

  Obviously, it’s somewhat of a “to each his own” situation, but I don’t think developers built 25,000 new condos downtown (or whatever the real # is) primarily with 2nd home buyers in mind. I think the expectation would be that local buyers who couldn’t afford the Beach would buy en masse downtown, but the bust killed that idea. I might be wrong, but that’s the sense I got as I watched the condo boom unfold in MIA over the past 5-6 years.

• 57 Mike K. /Jun 30, 2009 at 9:20 am  Vote:    

  I’m closing on a unit in 500 Brickell soon. When taking a tour of the building last month, I must tell you it felt a little like 2004 again!! The place was packed with prospective buyers. I have to attribute the flurry of activity on one thing: FANNIE MAE APPROVAL!! There are plenty of people who still have job and can afford the REDUCED developer units. As a buyer, I feel comfortable purchasing knowing that many of the unsold units are being occupied by temporary short term leases..which means they are helping Perez pay his maintenance fees…which in turn reduces my risk of assessment.

  This will be my first home purchase (and primary residence)…and I’ve waited many years to make this purchase (was calling the housing bubble before it crashed). I see nothing wrong with locking in my mortgage payment at 5 percent for the next 30 years…plus adding a tangible asset to my portfolio. While we may see lower prices still to come…this is the BOTTOM for interest rates. Unless you are a cash buyer, now is the time to buy. Who really cares if you can get a unit for less in a year from now…if your mortgage pmt is double (b/c you have a 10 percent interest rate)??

  Hyper-inflation is coming…and anybody still in cash will be in a terrible position (as your cash won’t be worth the paper it’s printed on). Lock your house (don’t rent), car (don’t lease), and other possible tangible item that can be purchased using the bank’s money at historically low rates. Renters will see massive increases in their rent when the inflation hits, while the 30 year fixed homeowner will be unfazed…

• 58 DJ /Jun 30, 2009 at 9:32 am  Vote:    

  Mike K, good post. I’m in the same boat as you, although I’m paying cash. But your situation and rationale for buying a place now sums me up to a T.

• 59 Joe /Jun 30, 2009 at 9:37 am  Vote:    

  So the answer to hyper-inflation is to go into heavy debt on assets that are illiquid and/or overpriced? LOL.

  – “while the 30 year fixed homeowner will be unfazed”

  Um, not quite. Single-family homeowners will still get hit with massive property tax hikes, and condo owners get the double-whammy: higher taxes *and* higher HOA fees.

  – “There are plenty of people who still have job and can afford the REDUCED developer units.”

  This was the funniest line in the post. Trading a $50 bill for a $100 bill is getting a reduced price. Buying one of 20,000 condos for less than the developer was trying to get in peak times isn’t the same sort of discount. Unless you could immediately resell your unit for a profit, you’re not getting a reduced price. You’re getting market price, or perhaps market-plus, depending on where things go.

  Again, before AJ or MMT blow another gasket, I’m not here in any way to be a downer or as part of some conspiracy to discourage buyers. But when people keep coming here and try to make it sound like happy days are here again, someone needs to introduce a little sanity into the proceedings, whether it’s RT, gables, myself, etc.

• 60 Lara /Jun 30, 2009 at 9:43 am  Vote:    

  What I think really slows the market besides a couple of other things is financing with a perfectly qualified buyers and relatively healthy buildings. I recently sold one of my apartments in Sunny Isles. CLosing was delayed by 3 weeks due to the # of docs required by the bank . It would have been delayed even more if not denied if not for personal interference of my realtor who paid to HOA and was present for 3 hours while they were filling up the docs. They told him to leave the papers and come next day. He refused and watched personaly the whole process until everything was done with the right answers.

  Another situation with the closing in Cape Coral. It has been delayed for 3 weeks and I hope that in 2 weeks it will actually happen. My buyers are qualified and pre approved. Here is SFH so no HOA is involved. Bank requested an appraisal. in 4 weeks they requested the 2nd appraisal. Now they request the review of appraisal. Now they want buyers to submit another set of docs to review them again since the old ones are more than 2 months old (whom to blame?). Do not forget that we are talking about the simpliest re transactions that can exist.

• 61 DJ /Jun 30, 2009 at 9:50 am  Vote:    

  LOL, this blog cracks me up. Membership should come with a free soapbox.

• 62 Drew /Jun 30, 2009 at 9:54 am  Vote:    

  Joe- You’re right. The “reduced price” argument is the logic of fools. The pre-construction over-hyped multiple flipped prices were an illusion. Prices are still above 2003 levels which under normal circumstance (2-3% increase year to year) is not necessarily a bargain.

• 63 jcrimes /Jun 30, 2009 at 9:59 am  Vote:    

  i hate to admit it….but even a housing cynic such as myself is about to put in an offer on a place on the beach. pocket listing with a healthy hoa…it’s a steal if i get it.

  that said, i don’t agree with a lot of logic espoused above for buying now. runaway inflation should not be a reason to buy. if we enter a period of inflation, housing prices aren’t going to shoot up unless you see a similar rise in wages. if wages don’t go up, then prices stay depressed because no one can afford to buy shit in the first place.

  way i look at it, another 50k drop in the price a year from means i’m paying a few hundred dollars more on my mortgage today. i can stomach that loss to get exactly what i want.

• 64 DJ /Jun 30, 2009 at 10:17 am  Vote:    

  Haha, this article doesn’t really have too much to do with miami RE (maybe indirecrtly), but the second I saw it I thought of Renter Tom.

  http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31619841/ns/business-consumer_news/

• 65 Joe /Jun 30, 2009 at 10:28 am  Vote:    

  Drew — I’ve suspected prices are still above 2003 but it’s damn hard to get straight answers out of anyone. But then it finally hit me that if prices truly had fallen to 2003 or pre-2003 levels, realtors would be going nuts screaming about that fact, so now I’m almost positive prices are still too high.

  —

  jcrimes — Good luck on the offer. As I’ve said what seems like 50 times here, there are plenty of reasons to buy now. Hell, I would buy now if I could find a unit I liked that wasn’t obviously still priced at 2007 levels. But there’s a big difference between buying now, fully aware that prices might come down further, etc., etc., and some of these other folks cheerleading the market as if they were the first ones to get in on the next great Miami condo boom.

  I’m reading forecasts that predict unemployment won’t peak until Q4 2010. How people reconcile that fact with claims of a brightening local r.e. market are beyond me. I think some of these r.e. pros are just so happy to see any action that they’ve fooled themselves into thinking good times are back. Distressed sales might be sales, but they’re not the sales that signal the good times are back.

• 66 DJ /Jun 30, 2009 at 10:35 am  Vote:    

  One for the bears: http://www.miamiherald.com/103/story/1107947.html?storylink=omni_popular

• 67 DJ /Jun 30, 2009 at 10:36 am  Vote:    

  And another for the bulls: http://www.bizjournals.com/southflorida/stories/2009/06/08/daily50.html

• 68 makes me think /Jun 30, 2009 at 10:55 am  Vote:    

  Let me make it clear, I have never been a fan of condo’s I thinik they are terrible investments because you have very little control and when it comes time to sell you may have 20 other units on the market that is exactly the same as yours and 10 of them may be more desperate to sell than you are. I also think condo prices in miami are still way over priced as a whole. If you are in the market and has been dreaming and waiting to own a condo and has the means to do so, why not go ahead a pull the trigger if you find a great deal? Mike K, Jcrimes, DJ and others are the buyers that I’m talking about. You don’t need to rush out there to buy anything, you can take your time and negotiate the hell out of a deal. There is no need to sit on the sidelines waiting for the general miami condo market to hit $100/sf, maybe you can go out and put in offers for a building you really like at a price you absoultely love. If you sit in the basement on your computer all day waiting for RT, Joe and the other clowns on this blog to tell you when it’s time to buy then you will never buy. Those clown will never buy a condo I don’t care how much money they claim to have or how low prices get. They are spectators there will always be a reason for them not to buy. You don’t sit at home blogging all day and expect opportunity to knock on your door. If you really want to own a condo you have to go out there and create your own opportunity. Put in offers on condos even if the price you are offering are being laughed at by the bank.

• 69 gables /Jun 30, 2009 at 11:02 am  Vote:    

  Mike K,
  Can you give us a clue what the “reduced” developer price is? This is the info i have been asking for. If developers are truly selling at these lower values, then we are headed in the right direction for stability in these buildings. But I have to admit, if the prices are still above $300k for a 2B unit, we have not corrected yet. There just are not enough people working in Miami who can afford a $300k condo once you include mortgage, HOA and taxes. Maybe outsiders, but not many in this city can hit that number.

• 70 DJ /Jun 30, 2009 at 11:06 am  Vote:    

  Speaking of reduced developer prices, I noticed that 1800 club now has a big sign outside of the building advertising this. No idea on actual pricing though.

• 71 gables /Jun 30, 2009 at 11:10 am  Vote:    

  MMT,
  In todays financial climate, should a buyer purchase a condo that is at the upper limit of his/her ability to pay? Most of these condos are still priced beyond what is a reasonable expenditure of household income on housing for the typical miamian. I agree with your thoughts regarding buying if it is your dream home, but my guess is you are telling people with a $60k a year income to buy a $300k condo, and that is a terrible decision at this point in the world economy. Fact is incomes and housing costs have not reached a rational equilibrium point-and we may take time and tribulations before we ever come close to that point again.

• 72 gables /Jun 30, 2009 at 11:15 am  Vote:    

  For those jumping on the low interest rate bandwagon, that is fine as long as you hold the property for the duration, since you can pay the low monthly fees. But what happens when interest rates increase, and typically followed by a decrease in home prices (they work inversely over the short term). If you need to sell the house in a high interest rate environment, you need to reduce the principal. can you cover that loss when you sell? people got into this mess over the past decade because they bought assets due to low interest rates, and the asset prices fell even without interest rate increases. do you really think in the future interest rates and asset prices will increase simultaneously?

• 73 Renter Tom /Jun 30, 2009 at 11:39 am  Vote:    

  makes me think – If you read my posts, you will notice that I have said there are deals out there but there are more to come, a lot more probably. Also, I have said I am considering some units and know around what price I would pay….with respect to condos the additional risk is the stability of the HOA/other owners that needs to be factored in.

  With respect to hyper inflation…..not gonna happen in housing anytime soon. In fact, high inflation and interest rates will depress prices on assets that need financing as incomes won’t rise with inflation. The cash buyer does better in hyper inflation interest rate environments…..

  There is a real risk of another leg down on the housing prices. Don’t be fooled by the recent stats that were manipulated by the foreclosure moritoriums…. We may only be half way through foreclosures which means that there aren’t enough buyers to step in to prevent the foreclosures from occuring….means demand is still way below supply.

• 74 Joe /Jun 30, 2009 at 11:40 am  Vote:    

  … And all these people trying to market-time interest rates vs. inflation are being too clever by half. Sure, they might save $100/mo. in mortgage payment, but when property taxes spike, and when HOA fees spike, those are inescapable.

  —

  MMT — You’ve brought some entertainment value to this site but your advice is poor, and your demeanor is even worse. I don’t spend more than 15 minutes per day here, and I don’t have a basement, either. I’m here for the same reason as everyone else: To get info., and take the pulse of the market. How other people spend their money is of no concern to me — beyond, of course, having another bust, and having tax dollars bail out more idiots.

• 75 makes me think /Jun 30, 2009 at 11:48 am  Vote:    

  gabless, you never heard me say that. I have specifically said people with financial means. if you make 60K in miami you probably shouldn’t even be thinking of owning a home. A home is more than PITI, with a 60K income I don’t even think you can find financing for a 300K condo. If you make 60K a year that’s like 3K after taxes, healthcare and 401k deductions . 300K condo will probably cost you $2600/mo with the taxes and HOA in miami. Maybe in the boom years 60K salary could get you a 300k condo but I don’t think that is the case today unless you a brining a hefty cash down pmt. If I was making 60K a year I wouldn’t consider owning a condo. I would try to find a cheap little foreclosed home in a decent neighborhood with one of those casitas in the back that I could rent out for some extra income in case i lost my job. Condo’s are too much of a wild card unless you have a sizeable savings to handle the unexpected assessment.

• 76 makes me think /Jun 30, 2009 at 12:10 pm  Vote:    

  Joe, I wasn’t aware there were basements in florida (with the state being only a few feet above see level and the soil doesn’t freeze during winter). I’m not telling everyone to go out to buy a condo. I’m telling people who have been waiting on the sidelines who will eventually buy anyway and has the financial means to do so to get out there start doing research and put in offers. Don’t sit on the computer listening to you guys about the economic doom and hyper inflation and the eventual demise of the USA. They need to live their lives. They are not going to get the deal of a life if they are not out there putting in offers and taking advantage of desperate builders and banks. Banks and Developers are getting desperate right now they are not going to be so desperate when inventory levels start to recover or when prices start to stabilize. When they see the light at the end of the tunnel it will be too late because by then they will feel the worst is over and they are no longer fighting for survival.

• 77 Renter Tom /Jun 30, 2009 at 12:20 pm  Vote:    

  makes me think – Sorry but the Case-Shiller numbers came out this morning….prices are falling and there is NO SIGN of abating. Hotel RevPAR is in gutter and restaurants have had 21 consecutive months of traffic declines. Moreover, consumer credit is being pulled back by the trillions of dollars. This credit bubble collapse has a long ways to go. That’s realistic doom and gloom. Meanwhile, if it doesn’t rain, you can find me on the beach…Cheers.

• 78 makes me think /Jun 30, 2009 at 12:25 pm  Vote:    

  RT, not everyone needs to buy at the bottom. I am an investor and I know what numbers work for me so yes I would like to get rock bottom prices but I’m not going to wait for the bottom, I’m going to buy at the price that meets my numbers. Now imagine the retail buyer who is already emotionally invested and have been waiting patiently. If they can afford the payments and they already think they are getting a 50% discount from 2 years ago they are not going to care if the price goes down another 30k next year. people like you and I make bad sales people because we think logically and numbers have to make sense to us. When you sell you have to remove logic and sell to people emotions (especially women) how esle can you explain all those shoes and bags they buy? People want to own those condo’s they don’t need to own them.

• 79 Renter Tom /Jun 30, 2009 at 12:27 pm  Vote:    

  Lastly, the debtor lifestyle is OVER. I didn’t fully realize the extent that people were living it up on credit. TV commercials pushed the carefree debtor lifestyle and now those people will have to go back and live like paupers and others won’t feel the need to live up to those unrealistic spending patterns.

• 80 Renter Tom /Jun 30, 2009 at 12:32 pm  Vote:    

  makes me think – Speak for yourself….LOL I’m actually a very very good sales person…..even won awards and a trip at my first two jobs when I was 16 and 17. Beat out the 30 and 40 year olds… But in this market one must divorce emotions from the buying equation. There is a significant risk of large price declines in condos. SFH’s are a more manageable risk for sure. There is little transparency with condos….both with the HOA and the other hundreds of unit owners in a condo building who you don’t really know or what their financial position or goals are…..

• 81 Joe /Jun 30, 2009 at 12:52 pm  Vote:    

  It’s becoming clear MMT is just a troll. I’m sorry I fed the monster by replying to him.

  MMT keeps telling people to “get out and research, and make offers before the market recovers.”

  Well, here’s some research: At the current absorption rate of 350 units per month, there’s 4-5 YEARS’ worth of known inventory, and probably another 1-2 years’ worth of shadow inventory. Yes, there might be some deals out there, but unless 20,000 rich foreigners fly in with cash, this r.e. market is a long way from the bottom, or equilibrium, or whatever one wants to call it.

• 82 makes me think /Jun 30, 2009 at 1:00 pm  Vote:    

  I sand corrected!

• 83 jcrimes /Jun 30, 2009 at 1:16 pm  Vote:    

  RT
  you stated it far more eloquently than i did. damn you.

• 84 Kramer /Jun 30, 2009 at 2:39 pm  Vote:    

  Kinda like a Yankee vs. Red Sox debate goin on here. Love it.

• 85 Renter Tom /Jun 30, 2009 at 2:40 pm  Vote:    

  …..waiting for the afternoon shower to clear out.

  One thing I have pondered is the combined effects of a decline in discretionary income, high and persistent unemployment, the massive withdrawal of consumer credit, the end of equity withdrawals from homes, historical state budget problems in nearly all states, increase in state and federal taxes, more foreclosures, more bank failures, and more… These are large structural adjustments which rule out a possible “V” shaped recovery which could have spurred people to jump in and buy now at “the bottom”…. Not gonna happen I’m afraid.

  Also, the Case-Shiller graphs lead me to conclude that a further 20% decline in prices is realistic if not optimistic….all depends on if we get a severe over correction or not.

• 86 Mike K. /Jun 30, 2009 at 2:43 pm  Vote:    

  Joe,

  Do you live at home with your mother…because that’s your only argument for safety from inflation?? You are correct, we will all have higher maintenance fees, taxes, etc…

  BUT MOST RENTAL CONTRACTS ARE FOR ONE YEAR!!! What do you think is going to happen to your rent once your contract is up? Do you think the landlord is just going to eat all of these cost without passing any of it down to the tenant? My base rate will be locked in for the next 30 years…that’s the safety in buying your so called illiquid asset. I also am planning on using this as my primary residence…and not something I’m just trying to flip.

• 87 Renter Tom /Jun 30, 2009 at 2:47 pm  Vote:    

  I should clarify, 20% from TODAY’s prices, not from peak prices….. if that helps. The foreclosure moratoriums will skew numbers to the positive so take any comments about stabilization with a grain of salt. Of course price can not continue to decline at such a steep rate just like any price of goods.

  Oh and I forgot to mention, there are few move up buyers out there…. The impact of no longer having a large number of serial move up home buyers will impact the mid-high and high end markets.

• 88 DJ /Jun 30, 2009 at 2:48 pm  Vote:    

  Krammer, I’m with you…..I’m just wondering who will get tired of listening to themselves talk first.

  I realized I didn’t respond to your question from post #23. Honestly, I have no idea. These three buildings are all clustered together pretty much in the middle of nowhere with no conceivable benefits over other buildings, such as having a water view. Considering the options we have down here, I can’t see why anyone would pick to live in any of these buildings.

• 89 Renter Tom /Jun 30, 2009 at 2:49 pm  Vote:    

  Mike K. said: “Do you think the landlord is just going to eat all of these cost without passing any of it down to the tenant?”

  - Answer: Yes. They have no choice, it is their least cost option as they can not afford to sell and there will be no demand to pay those high prices. Welcome to the world of illiquid assets. Been there, done that….doing it no more.

• 90 Mike K. /Jun 30, 2009 at 2:50 pm  Vote:    

  Gables,

  I got a very high floor in the West Tower for around 220/sq ft. They are trying to keep the sales prices high…but are offering “heavy” credits on the back end closing costs.

  Top of the line appliances and a water view….I don’t care what the prices where in 1998, 2003, 2007…all I know is that I feel I am getting my monies worth….and as long as enough people start thinking like me…this will be the bottom. Charts and data don’t make markets..people do. If I am willing to pay 220/sq ft (and based on the closings many other people are as well)…then that IS the market.

• 91 DJ /Jun 30, 2009 at 2:51 pm  Vote:    

  Not to mention, another reason to buy now, at least before the end of the year, is to take advantage of the $8,000 tax credit for first time home buyers; assuming you are a first time home buyer. That is free money. So if you fit into that category, you can deduct 8 grand from the purchase price.

• 92 Renter Tom /Jun 30, 2009 at 2:56 pm  Vote:    

  Hey Mike K. Now that you have made your decision, sit back and enjoy the place. No reason to beat yourself over the head wondering about the decision. Congrats. But for those still in the decision making process, we’ll keep monitoring the market. By the way, charts and data tell us what the market actually IS. $220/s.f., not bad.

• 93 Mike K. /Jun 30, 2009 at 2:56 pm  Vote:    

  Renter Tom…

  You guys are thinking with the mindset of the past 30 years…we are about to enter a whole new era…try to imagine the green pieces of paper in your wallet are just that…PAPER. Money will be awash everywhere… A rising inflation tide increases all boats..INCLUDING RENTS.

• 94 makes me think /Jun 30, 2009 at 2:56 pm  Vote:    

  Joe, This discussion is becoming a moot point, I’ll try on last time .

  Jcrimes who has been on of the biggest bears on this board and continues to be, is looking, doing his research and is considering making an offer before the market rebounds. Would you tell him that is a wrong move?

  you wrote in #65
  -”jcrimes — Good luck on the offer. there are plenty of reasons to buy now. Hell, I would buy now if I could find a unit I liked that wasn’t obviously still priced at 2007 ”

  Well that is the same thing I am saying? I’m not telling people to go out and buy 2007 priced condo. I’m telling them to do the exact same thing that Jcrimes is doing to be the one to appear on Lucas next top 5 condo deal.

  –”there are plenty of reasons to buy now. Hell, I would buy now if I could find a unit I liked that wasn’t obviously still priced at 2007 ”

  We actually agree. All I’m saying is that you will find those units priced properly by going out and making contacts with people in the know as jcrimes has done. Those deals on the Top five are not going to knock on your door, you have to go out to find them.

  post #73 RT said “makes me think – If you read my posts, you will notice that I have said there are deals out there but there are more to come, a lot more probably”

  Again I am in agreement, All I am saying is that if you find the deal you want in the building you want at the price you want. you might be wise to take it now instead of waitng for the same deal to come around next year for 20K less. There may be more deals next year but it may not be in that building or it may not be the same unit you had your sights on.

  You contradict yourself.

  Man, I feel like AJ on this blog. How the f*ck did that happen!

• 95 Renter Tom /Jun 30, 2009 at 2:57 pm  Vote:    

  But DJ…they are proposing making it $15K……..LOL. Seriously, the politicians can’t keep the hands out of meddling with the markets…. I’d consider the $8K as a bonus AFTER the purchase decision has been made already, not as a reason to “buy now”.

• 96 Mike K. /Jun 30, 2009 at 2:58 pm  Vote:    

  Tom,

  Thanks, I will..and you my friend are invited to the house warming.

• 97 DJ /Jun 30, 2009 at 3:03 pm  Vote:    

  RT, you’re right, calling it a bonus makes more sense. Basically, if you’ve found a place you like, at a price you like, and you’ve done your research and feel comfortable with the decision, then the $8k is certainly a nice little incentive to pull the trigger.

• 98 Renter Tom /Jun 30, 2009 at 3:28 pm  Vote:    

  Mike K – as long as the beer is cold, I’m there… LOL

  I do have to disagree that if all hell breaks loose, better off with a single family home with some ground to grow your own food!

• 99 gables /Jun 30, 2009 at 3:29 pm  Vote:    

  Mike K,
  Thanks for the info on the unit price-great info. You bought within reason as far as i am concerned. I have been looking at $150-$200 sq ft target, and you did not miss by much. I will buy if i find a unit that attracts me for under $200sq ft, since this will certainly minimize the down side. That puts a typical 2B unit at around $200k, which to me seems reasonable. Not a great deal, but very reasonable for a primary residence.

• 100 makes me think /Jun 30, 2009 at 3:32 pm  Vote:    

  RT post #85

  That’s funny, you remind me of my days on wall st.
  They would hire these brilliant guys with great academics and great resumes but when you ask them to do something they would spend a whole lot of time analyzing charts and looking at data and talking to this person then do more analysis and never get anything accomplished. He would quickly find himself working on his own “special project” and we would get someone in who could do the job. It’s called paralysis of analysis. you seem to have that problem.

• 101 DJ /Jun 30, 2009 at 3:43 pm  Vote:    

  I have to agree with what Gables said in post #99. At around $200/sq. foot for a nice two bedroom, the prices seem reasonable. If (when) my short sale goes through it will be for $210/sq. foot, with some very nice upgrades, like marble floors, etc. I may not be buying at the very bottom, but I really don’t care. If I love the unit, and I’m happy with the price, then I’m getting a good deal as far as I’m concerned.

• 102 Mike K. /Jun 30, 2009 at 3:49 pm  Vote:    

  Tom,

  If all hell breaks loose…at least I have a HIGHER floor to jump off of!! lol I will trade you basil, rosemary, and other herbs I can grow on my balcony..for whatever you got in your single family garden…

  Gables,

  I’ve been in the market for a condo the past year. In my humble opinion, every unit I saw under 200/sq needed a lot of work, was in a risky building, or not such a great location. I’m sure you can find a 2bd in Brickell on the River, the Vue, Club at Brickell Bay for 150/sq ft…but you will probably need to put in 20/30sq ft of upgrades to make it look like the turnkey unit I’m getting straight from the developer without any defects (includes flooring, Bosch appliances, upgraded counter tops, etc). Plus most of those buildings have HOAs on the verge of bankruptcy…and large assessments appear imminent.

  Like everything in life..there is a risk/reward relationship. Price for quality is what’s important.

• 103 Renter Tom /Jun 30, 2009 at 3:54 pm  Vote:    

  makes me think – Thanks for the insult. But I have made more decisions and pulled more “triggers” on investments and real estate than most people twice or even ten times my age. As such, I have the prudence and wisdom to not jump the gun and to keep my powder dry.

• 104 Joe /Jun 30, 2009 at 4:00 pm  Vote:    

  MMT — “It’s called paralysis of analysis. you seem to have that problem.”

  So 10 seconds after claiming you and RT and I agree, you’re back with more trolling?

  —

  Mike K. — Are you dreaming? Did you ever take Econ 101?

  Why would renters take the brunt of inflation? And what “rising costs” are you talking about that would affect the owners of rental properties but *wouldn’t* affect the owners of owner-occupied properties? Or have you concocted some magic scenario in which brilliant people like yourself have 5% mortgages while investors are paying 10% or 15%?

• 105 Joe /Jun 30, 2009 at 4:03 pm  Vote:    

  Mike K. in #102: “Plus most of those buildings have HOAs on the verge of bankruptcy…and large assessments appear imminent.”

  No, no, no … Hasn’t AJ told you? Those HOAs are all on solid ground, and only loser HOAs set aside reserves. LOL.

• 106 makes me think /Jun 30, 2009 at 4:08 pm  Vote:    

  Tom, I hope you don’t take my comments seriously. I’m just having fun on this blog.
  Nothing I say is meant to be mean spirited, I definately don’t want to take it there. I am at home suppose to be filing some property tax appeals but have been putting it off. I’m having too much fun with you guys , I’m still in vacation mode.

• 107 Renter Tom /Jun 30, 2009 at 4:09 pm  Vote:    

  makes me think – No problem.

• 108 Mike K. /Jun 30, 2009 at 4:15 pm  Vote:    

  Joe,

  I graduated with a double major in Finance/Economics (cum luade) and I am not dreaming. You point to me in any of your Econ 101 books where it ever describes a government selling bonds to raise capital and using its own treasure to buy those bonds?? NEVER BEEN DONE BEFORE. I don’t think you will read about governments going out and actively manipulating bond prices and mortgage rates (buy purchasing mortgage backed securities). I don’t think you will read about a globalized world where every major single economy is using FIAT money and continuing to run ballooning deficits. ALL the crap that anybody has ever read in any book needs to be thrown out the window..like I said in a previous post…THIS IS A NEW ERA.

  I think you misunderstood my previous points…INFLATION EFFECTS EVERYONE! This won’t be inflation caused by increased economic activity, but rather a loss of FAITH in fiat currency. Read your dollar bill..says “backed by the good faith of uncle sam”..and if/when that faith is gone…ITS JUST PAPER.

• 109 Mike K. /Jun 30, 2009 at 4:18 pm  Vote:    

  The 10 and 15 percent rates will be a direct effect of foreign investment requiring a higher rate due to higher risks associated with default. Nobody will want our bonds at 5 percent once they realize we can’t pay them back. We are only a few years away from having interest payments on our debt be GREATER than our GDP…then what?

• 110 Renter Tom /Jun 30, 2009 at 4:29 pm  Vote:    

  Mike K. said: “We are only a few years away from having interest payments on our debt be GREATER than our GDP…then what?”

  - That is not correct. We are a few years away from our national debt being larger then our GDP, but not the debt service let alone interest only payments be greater.

• 111 Renter Tom /Jun 30, 2009 at 4:33 pm  Vote:    

  By the way Mike K., I am not deaf to Peter Schiff but the currencies will be worth less, not be worthless.

• 112 Mike K. /Jun 30, 2009 at 4:37 pm  Vote:    

  Tom,

  In 2008, our GDP was estimated at 14.29 trillion….current National Debt clock stands at 11.3 trillion. Current 2009 budget deficit projections for 2009 are coming in around 2-3 trillion. This means in less than ONE year we might have more debt than GDP. If our debt gets worse (which is will due to lost income tax revenues from baby boomers retiring) and if GDP diminishes (which it will due to higher interest rates and global protectionism)…we might have a higher debt service than GDP in a few years.

• 113 Renter Tom /Jun 30, 2009 at 4:43 pm  Vote:    

  Mike K. – You said interest payments, not debt service which includes principal. Regardless, not going to happen in 1 year, 2 years, or 5 years even for debt service that includes principal repayments. Perhaps you mistyped?

• 114 Mike K. /Jun 30, 2009 at 4:43 pm  Vote:    

  Tom,

  Worth less compared to what?? Other currencies? A currency is based in relation to the value of other currencies…one can be worth less compared to another…but they all can certainly be worthless.

  If the world only used ONE currency, then I could a situation where FIAT currency would still have some tangible value. But if the US is printing, and EUR is printing…and the GBP is printing…and JPY is printing….(and u get my point) well then we have nothing.

• 115 AJ /Jun 30, 2009 at 4:46 pm  Vote:    

  DJ,
  I read your link regarding the new American way of life – “Renting”.

  Thanks to RT and so many others, business has never been so good. As a landlord of 2 rental units in NY and 2 rental units in Miami, Life has never been better and getting better everyday. So RTs of the World, keep renting. And did I forget to say Thank You?

• 116 Mike K. /Jun 30, 2009 at 4:47 pm  Vote:    

  Tom,

  correct, i mis-typed. What bothers me is paying almost 100bill a year just in interest to China. That number will only get worse as other countries own more and of our debt. When interest rates rise, we will have even a heavier bill to pay each and every year…just for money we’ve already blown….

  Anyways, this is all off topic. Back to the condo market in Miami… I am purchasing my unit with the knowledge that sh*t just might hit the fan…

• 117 condoswindler /Jun 30, 2009 at 7:31 pm  Vote:    

  Too much rhetoric..can we get back to the business of Miami condos…so here is latest update and or stupid comment of the day…here is article
  Brickell condos win loan extensionSouth Florida Business Journal – by Brian Bandell

  Shortly before completing a bulk sale of 31 units, the developer of the 1060 Brickell condominium in Miami’s financial district secured an extension on its construction mortgage.

  On June 2, New York-based iStar FM Loans gave IMICO Brickell until April 1, 2010 to repay the $153.3 million mortgage, according to Miami-Dade County court records.

  While the document didn’t list the original maturity date, or the amount outstanding under the mortgage, it said the agreement was retroactive to March 1.

  Last week, the Business Journal published a report by Bal Harbour-based brokerage Condo Vultures that said IMICO Brickell sold 51 units for $6.1 million, or $203 a square foot, on June 17 to 1060 Brickell Apartments, a group headed by Carlos Mattos.

  County records show that 338 of the 570 units in 1060 Brickell have been sold since it started closings in January 2008.

  ok so commentary: Did you think there wasnt a side deal to extend this financing knowing there was abulk deal working…can you say coersion and or insider info…..again just another mark on an already over marked situation…

  look at the deals that are being made and its like the old days when the “boys” would peddle their goods at below market so as to avoid Johnny Law…as big willie smith put it Bienvenidos a Miami…

  As far as china is concerned dont you all worry our number one super hero Barak Obama will parley the china debt to cover our real estate losses as the shit is just waiting to hit the fan as the chinese govt came up wth a plan some 10 years ago much like the japanese back in 40 to take down the US-and they are winnning-see debt to cash ratio-yet the swindler has the answer, the way to recoup all and thensome and if we have to go to war so what atleast this is tangeable-has anyone ever seen the taliban….

• 118 Kramer /Jun 30, 2009 at 8:06 pm  Vote:    

  Mike K sounds suspiciously like a RELATED schill. There are no “Water Views” in the west building unless he is counting his view of that tiny swimming pool. And when I toured this third rate rat hole in a poor location the appliances were from Sears. Besides he sounds like he got a legacy degree in economics. Hyperinflation will come only after all of this massive debt contracts first which is deflation. The fed and govt have for the past year and half tried everything to reflate and force liquidity into the system. FAILED. The dollar will rise substantially before it devalues not because it is healthy but because it is the sickest of the currencies. More debt is denominated in dollars than any other currency and when that debt implodes as it is slowly now doing the remaining dollars will go up in value. Deflation always wins in a credit based economy. So I wouldnt be planting those herbs on yer balcony just yet as we are more likely to meet you on the steps of the county courthouse when your bank calls in your loan. You overpaid.

• 119 southbeachsand /Jun 30, 2009 at 8:08 pm  Vote:    

  How many of these buildings are being filled with the Hialeah Renters? I’ve heard a lot of trash is moving in down there.

• 120 condoswindler /Jun 30, 2009 at 8:53 pm  Vote:    

  at this point Hialeah renters are a class above what I have as neighbors at 500 Brickell.

  I just thanked the realted group in a long winded thank you letter for basically alowing me to realize Michael jacksons dream…adopting the homeless to live with me..

  Scenerio-I paid pre-costruction what was very fair price
  I am one of first to close payin all cash-JP dream!

• 121 Drew /Jun 30, 2009 at 9:26 pm  Vote:    

  Elaborate how “the homeless” live with you in 500 Brickell. Is it pretty bad there?

  And I’d rather live next door to Hialeah renters than obnoxious, privileged NY/NJ degenerates.

• 122 Joe /Jul 1, 2009 at 1:19 am  Vote:    

  Mike K. — Aside from agreeing with just about everything the people above have posted in rebuttal to your fantasyland economic claims, what makes you think that people who might have been smart enough to amass large cash positions would, when faced with the hyperinflation you claim is about 10 minutes away, stay entirely in cash and watch their “fiat currency” become “worthless”? Don’t you think they might slide some of it into something like, oh, I don’t know … gold?

• 123 gables /Jul 1, 2009 at 9:09 am  Vote:    

  IF you are buying a condo to secure your money in an inflationary (or hyperinflationary) era, you are making a very bad mistake. The point is to hold an asset that will not cost you to hold, and which has a limited supply. Condos really fall far from achieving that goal. They have very high carrying costs, and can be created by the thousands with the introduction of a single new building. If you are worried about inflation and want to use RE as an investment tool, you need to buy LAND and not air space. Single family homes or open lots and acreage are the way to go, but not condos. Condos are meant to be lived in, and on rare occasions flipped to a sucker, but not really as an inflation hedge. The building could deteriorate and destroy any protection you thought you had. Almost better to buy land in Homestead!

• 124 condoswindler /Jul 1, 2009 at 11:43 am  Vote:    

  In case we needed another kick in the ass dose of reality here is what the Nation is reading in this weeks TIME…

  http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1907198,00.html?xid=rss-topstories

  Property Tax, Property Tax, Property tax-when are they (the Gov’t) gonna get it-you can’t assess a property based upon a value that it should never have had in the first place..all I can say is how many of these now short sales will go back into the mix when the “new buyer” the winner here realizes their taxes and now with an increase…Damn what is next the midget (dwarf) sale or is that not politically correct-and if it is should I patent the term….

• 125 AJD /Jul 2, 2009 at 12:00 am  Vote:    

  I went to see Infinity at Brickell yesterday, they had some nice loft type condos but the building is empty, anyone know whats the deal with this building??

• 126 Snowball /Jul 2, 2009 at 4:17 pm  Vote:    

  Mike K (#52),

  I wish you well on your new condo purchase. But I caution you to be carefull. By your own admission you realize this may not be the bottom in condo prices, but your comfortable buying because interest rates are likely to have hit bottom.
  Like you, I think mortgage rates are unlikely to go much lower but I don’t think this is a signal to buy. Just the opposite! I think it’s a sign for extreme caution. If mortgage rates were to rise by 2-3% in the next 4-5 years, what would you do if you wanted to sell? Unless, incomes have increased significantly, a new buyer would be paying quite a bit more for your condo, even if you don’t sell at YOUR PURCHASE PRICE. IMO the more likely scenario, is you will be forced to “stay put” or lower your price to afford the next buyer an affordable mortgage payment.

• 127 Confused /Sep 10, 2009 at 8:23 pm  Vote:    

  can somebody explain what is the benefit of a condo being Fannie Mae Approved?

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