New Miami Condos – Closing Rates for February 2008

February 20, 2008 by Lucas Lechuga

This month, I decided to make two separate graphs to show the percentage of total units that each development has closed since closings began. The first graph, found immediately below, reveals the closing rates for Miami condos which had their first closing prior to November 1 2007. The condo developments are also now ordered according to when closings began, with the first to the left.

New Miami Condo Closing Rates - February 2008

Below you will find the date that each condo development in the graph above began closings:

Not much has changed with this group of condos since the last update was provided in January. Ten Museum Park and Latitude on the River inched up about 2-3 percentage points. Star Lofts on the Bay remained the exact same and Onyx on the Bay was able to close one additional condo. The Loft Downtown 2 moved up a little over 5 percentage points and 50 Biscayne moved up almost 7 percentage points. A few different sources have told me that there have been about 200 defaulted condos at 50 Biscayne. This is in line with the 239 condos that are currently unaccounted for according to public records. Several people have left comments here stating that the developer has chosen to lease many of the defaulted condos and ride out the storm rather than sell to a bulk buyer. I’m sure other developers will follow suit, which will decrease the expected inventory levels for a few years.

New Miami Condo Closing Rates - February 2008

Below you will find the date that each condo development in the graph above began closings:

The graph above includes a group of condos which began closings within the past three months. I was surprised to see that 1800 Club has fared the best, although it should be noted that it did begin closings first amongst this group. Brickell on the River 2 has made much progress since the end of January when closed condos represented about 4 1/2 percent. Quantum on the Bay has done well considering that it has only received a TCO on the first of its two towers. Driving by a few times within the last couple of weeks, I did notice more lights on at night than one would expect from a condo development that just started closings about a month and a half ago. Same goes with 1800 Club. With a closing rate of about 20 percent, Apogee South Beach is off to a good start. Prices there start at about $2.5M. Plaza on Brickell has also only received a TCO on the first of its two towers. We should see much improvement from most of the condo buildings in the above group within the next month or two.

You may have noticed that One Bal Harbour and Midtown 2 are not found in this month’s update. I chose not to include One Bal Harbour because the Regent condo-hotel units have now begun closings and I did not want to intermingle the two. I do know, however, that WCI Communities has been quite successful in closing units at One Bal Harbour. They’ve closed around 150-155 condos out of a total of 185. I also know that several have been reassigned and are currently under contract. I expect WCI to have only a couple developer units left at One Bal Harbour by the end of March.

I didn’t include 2 Midtown because I noticed that a bunch of deeds have been re-recorded there. It would have taken me forever to sort through that mess. The following was written along the left-hand side of the re-recorded deeds: “This deed is being re-recorded to correct vesting on title”.

Disclaimer: The above closing rate information was derived from public County records. There can be a 2-3 week delay from the time that a closing occurs and the time that the closing gets recorded.

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52 Comments on "New Miami Condos – Closing Rates for February 2008"


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Anonymous
8 years 7 months ago

This is fantastic info, great job with this blog.

Anonymous
8 years 7 months ago

Great work Lucas! Quantum North should be TCO’ing soon.

Anonymous
8 years 7 months ago

Thanks G & Samir! I enjoy providing this update because it’s like watching a race to the finish from the sidelines in slow motion. So far nobody has crossed the finish line. It’ll be interesting to see who does it first. Other than One Bal Harbour, I have no clue which new condo development will reach the 100% mark first.

Anonymous
8 years 7 months ago

You’re the man.

Anonymous
Julian
8 years 7 months ago

Lucas – but does it matter? If, as the MLS seems to suggest, it’s largely people closing and then re-listing, it seems like it’s a case of “rather take a chance to resell” than “lose 10/20% for sure”.

That seems (1) a big bet to make given carrying costs (2) a terrible sign that there’s no underlying demand for these things. (3) some irrational actions going on

Anonymous
8 years 7 months ago

It’ll be more fun to see who does it first and i cant wait to see.

Anonymous
Laurent
8 years 7 months ago

wow ten museum got a very good closing rate

do you have an idea of the % closed at midtown2? do u believe it is above 60% like they say?

Is this re-recorded a trick to record more or genuine?

Anonymous
Generalmagic
8 years 7 months ago

One reason why one Bal Harbor faired so well is because of the area. I thought at those prices the project would be in trouble. I am assuming that many are closing, instead of walking away, because they feel they can rent the units out to cover there monthly costs. They are going to have to rent it out for big bucks! They can’t flip it! Look what happened at TMP. People started out trying to rent at huge prices. Now they have dropped big time!

Anonymous
Laurent
8 years 7 months ago

how much do they rent 2 bedrooms at tmp?

Anonymous
Raffi
8 years 7 months ago

Generalmagic,

TMP cant rent or sell the units becuase they are a piece of crap, overpriced, terribly designed units. also I think that one bal harbor is doing well because anyone who looks to buy in that area has big bucks and either has no problem waiting out the storm, or are out of towners who use them as second homes.

Lucas,

I heard they just sold 200 units as a bulk buy at 50 biscyane, closing should come very soon on those.

Anonymous
BFG
8 years 7 months ago
I have the same thoughts as Julian. Keep in mind: these closings aren’t the same thing as sales. These are sales that occurred during the boom that are simply being completed now. Choosing to close on a condo to avoid the certain loss of potentially hundreds of thousands of dollars in deposit money is not the same thing as choosing today to buy the condo. How many of these people closing on these units would make the same decision today if they didn’t have any deposit money on the line? My guess is very few – and yes, that includes… Read more »
Anonymous
gables
8 years 7 months ago
assuming somebody gets a “deal” today on a new condo development 2B/2B around 1100 sq ft for $300k. assuming its in one of the new, nicer developments. how good of a deal do you think that is? any thoughts on whether it would hold value or drop significantly from that price point? any thoughts on how much HOA and assessments will increase in the future and affect equity? trying to get a feel for what price point will constitute a good deal in the brickell area, one that you will not regret in 5 years. thoughts?
Anonymous
jc
8 years 7 months ago

Doesn’t the math basically equate to the rate of attrition? How many people are moving, and staying in S. Florida as opposed to how many move away?

Anonymous
8 years 7 months ago

Wow I am shocked 75% of Ten Musuem Park has closed, I find it extremelydifficult to sell a unit there, plus the parking lot is horrible and you have to valet your car

I want to see the closings in the buildings on South Miami Ave now those are going to get scary….

Anonymous
8 years 7 months ago

gables – I really think you should do research building by building as prices can be quite different & some buildings will hold their value much better than others (say some with ton of foreclosings).

I did a little report about Brickell Key condos (hope to get around doing Brickell next): http://www.condo.com/Community/UserBlogPage.aspx?ID=1583

Anonymous
Generalmagic
8 years 7 months ago

Raffi and BFG,

All I can say is that I totally agree! People are closing because they have big deposits down and are just hoping for the best. How long till some of these owners just run out of cash.

Anonymous
RaulV
8 years 7 months ago

Lucas,

Where can I find rental/lease information on some of these units from owners? I’m interested in renting/leasing. Any help would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!

Anonymous
Laurent
8 years 7 months ago

Generalmagic/RAFFI and BFG I agree w you tose people close because of their deposit
Nonetheless construction is at a dead point for 2 years as far as new towers are concerned and buildings are getting sold will that be enough to create a momentum ..it s very possible

Anonymous
Laurent
8 years 7 months ago

it might be a turning point low..even though we ll need time to work it out i dont see prices coming down too much from there…

I d looove to see tax reduced thoug…lol

Anonymous
Generalmagic
8 years 7 months ago

Laurent,

I think you will see prices drop even further. I see it in many buildings already on the beach.

Anonymous
8 years 7 months ago
BFG, I have to disagree. You said: “How many of these people closing on these units would make the same decision today if they didn’t have any deposit money on the line? My guess is very few – and yes, that includes One Bal Harbour.” When it comes to One Bal Harbour I have to disagree. A large portion of the closed units at One Bal Harbour were not from people who were original contract holders. WCI decided to find NEW buyers for original contract holders. They are giving a ton of tours per day. It’s always very busy whenever… Read more »
Anonymous
8 years 7 months ago

RaulV,

Which buildings are you interested in? I have the rental listings for most of the buildings down the second column of this page.

Anonymous
brian
8 years 7 months ago

75% at Ten Museum is not good. Its been tryng to close units since early last summer. Thats around 50 of the 200 units still owned by the developer. Plus, some of those sold were to a bulk buyer. Developer dont make any money until that last 10-15% or so. Everything before that is paying off construction debt and investors.

Anonymous
Daniel Perez
8 years 7 months ago

I NEED SOME HELP/ADVISE:

I will have the closing of my studio at AVENUE at Brickell (1060 Brickell).

I paid $400 ppsf.

As the situation on every building will be different, and some will hold better values than others…. what is the opinion and advise of some of you that saw all the buildings in the brickell area compared to mine.

In my opinion the building looks really good, and i think it should have a strong demand compared to others, but i really want to know other points of views before taking my closing.

thank you very much !!!

Daniel.

Anonymous
Raffi
8 years 7 months ago
I think some people here are confusing buying as an investor or buying for your personal dwelling. If your buying as an investor forget about it. Doesen’t matter how much lower these prices go it’s other factors that would keep us investors away. Even if I get a 2/2 for 250k I still wouldn’t be able to cover mortgage, taxes, and HOA with rent. Especially the ridiculous HOA they are charging. it all depends on the size of the down payment as well, but still not a good investment. NOW if your buying to live in it, it’s a good… Read more »
Anonymous
8 years 7 months ago

Daniel,

I was actually working on a post about Avenue at Brickell last night. I should have it published by tomorrow. Here are few quick things that I noted in touring Avenue:
1. There’s very little closet space (end-buyers will definitely take notice of this)
2. The amenities aren’t finished (at least when I saw them last about three weeks ago)
3. The layouts I saw weren’t very functional. They seemed smaller to me than the square footage that was stated.

Anonymous
8 years 7 months ago
Anonymous
BFG
8 years 7 months ago
“The reason why One Bal Harbour is having great success is because it is beachfront, you can buy at April 2003 prices and the development is fantastic.” One thing I will concede: WCI is doing a great job at either convincing new people to buy these things and/or getting original contract holders to follow through. That much I will not argue. Either way, it does not change my outlook. As the Miami beachfront condo market goes, so goes OBH. There is no such thing as “immunity” from an overall market decline in prices. Like I said, some of these building… Read more »
Anonymous
Julian
8 years 7 months ago

Lucas –

“When it comes to One Bal Harbour I have to disagree. A large portion of the closed units at One Bal Harbour were not from people who were original contract holders. WCI decided to find NEW buyers for original contract holders. ”

I can’t publish or repeat in a public forum allegations that I have heard from a good source, but if they are correct, your ANALYSIS of these observable facts you describe is entirely and totally wrong.

Sorry I cannot be more precise.

Anonymous
Daniel Perez
8 years 7 months ago

Lucas,

thank you very much for your info. I definitelly look foward on reading your future post of Avenue.

i havent seen the building on the inside yet, so if you did and found that out, is definitelly not good…

I will wait for your new post tomorrow and see more details,

thanks a lot for all your work !!!!

this blog is the best !!!!

Daniel.

Anonymous
BFG
8 years 7 months ago

Maybe this has been addressed before, but according to Zilbert.com, there are 84 re-sale units in OBH (just in MLS). That’s about a third of the building.

If that is true, that is a huge number and only reinforces my skepticism over the “success” of this building. Maybe the developer will get out successfully, but the “investors” won’t.

Anonymous
Julian
8 years 7 months ago

BFG – suspect the data is true. But it’s all in the interpretation of how this situation came about.

Anonymous
Stall
8 years 7 months ago

any news on marina blue lucas? im very interested in it

Anonymous
RaulV
8 years 7 months ago

Lucas,

Thanks, I didn’t notice that there (rental listings) and I read this blog almost everyday. I’m not sure as to which building yet, I want to do a few more drive by’s and get a feel for the area outside of some of these.

Anonymous
Raffi
8 years 7 months ago

ever since EWM fired you for that ridiculous lawsuit you’ve had alot more action on the site, congrats haha. I guess the old saying is true “theres no such thing as bad press”

Anonymous
cyrus
8 years 7 months ago
Lucas, my guess is the rental mkts aren’t doing too well either (yet). but having gone through the rentals…the asking $ seems ridiculous too. almost as if the asking $ is what they need to make to cover costs and not what the real mkt is (similar to the sales mkt). having said this, is the rental mkt moving better than the sales mkt? cause for these reantal asking prices, i’d rather own … granted, rent (as sales) mkts are totally negotiable. any info? thanks…just wondering if a 2/2 in a decent bldg is actually getting the 4-8k/mo that is… Read more »
Anonymous
8 years 7 months ago

BFG while you are right that nobuilding is going to be inmmune beachfront is beachfront and you can take all the rental vs own. NOI/Cap Rate analysis you want Miami will rebound and there are hardly any beachfront lots to develop left so the buildings with an actual beach will hold up better and in my opinion will not be hit as bad as the other ones…

Anonymous
RG
8 years 7 months ago

Lucas,
Lucas,
Any word how Trump Tower One closings are doing? I would assume since it sold for significantly less then tower’s two and three it should be doing ok. My unit is still up for grabs, I decided not to close and will sell at a loss despite the truly great price I got it at.

Anonymous
FalseAdvertisement
8 years 7 months ago

Hi Lucas,

Just curious if you had the closing percentage on Wind by NEO that just started closing this month.

And if possible, where do you find that information. It would be great if I can keep an update for myself on the buildings situation every week.

Thanks!

Anonymous
8 years 7 months ago
RaulV, I just added the condo listings last week. Julian, can you at least say what part of my statement you think is incorrect? My understanding is that WCI did not default original contract holders that could not or did not want to close. Their new deadline to close units is March 31. Any units that they are unable to find a new buyer for will then go into default. I’ve been told that if the developer gets back any defaulted units that they won’t discount them from original reservation prices. FalseAdvertisement, I will likely include Wind in next month’s… Read more »
Anonymous
8 years 7 months ago

Raffi, you are completely correct. I now have a lot more readers of this blog since the media picked up on the story about the lawsuit. I still haven’t been served either. Nothing beats free publicity.

Samir, the Wall Street Journal article was supposed to be published today. The reporter contacted me today to verify the building names for pictures that he took. He said it will run next week.

Anonymous
cord
8 years 7 months ago

The level of discourse on this blog is outstanding. I’ve never seen a real estate blog with so many intelligent, astute, and well-written comments. Keep up the good work!

Anonymous
Adner B
8 years 7 months ago
Question- If there is such a high supply of units and a scarce demand, (and I’m guessing that buildings are going to continue having a hard time to close)… does that mean that as a renter, I will be living in an empty building? Does that reality even exist? If not, then where does Miami (Brickell) expect to get the thousands of people to occupy these units within the next year? I work in the Brickell Area and often leave at night with my sunroof open to purposefully look out for any lights on in the newer buildings that already… Read more »
Anonymous
CEO911
8 years 7 months ago

Alejandro, you said :

“Wow I am shocked 75% of Ten Musuem Park has closed, I find it extremely difficult to sell a unit there, plus the parking lot is horrible and you have to valet your car…”

I’m confused about the parking situation… I mean, if they can valet it, why can’t we park it?? what’s the real difference or savings to space, if somebody else parks my car?? Are the spaces so small that a “professional driver” has to park my car?? What exactly is “horrible” about the parking lot??

Thanks in advance …

Anonymous
8 years 7 months ago

Adner, yes, if you can wait.. all those buildings you listed will have many rental units. There seems to be a lot of condo owners thinking they will ride things out by renting until things get better. The problem is, they are just going to flood the mid to high end rental market with more units than the rental market can absorb. Take look at the listings on craigslist…

Anonymous
elliotbret
8 years 6 months ago

can someone tell me more about 1800 club? i would buy a unit to live in it but i am very scared because if enough people walk away and dont pay their maintenance fees.. then the owners who really want to be there will end up paying high assessments.. and if most cant afford these assessments, then it will be very difficult for the entire building to continue operating? thanks!

Anonymous
TS
8 years 6 months ago
I am an owner of a condo at the Regent Bal Harbour, part of the One Bal Harbour project. I would love to say that everything has been just perfect with my WCI experience, but that’s just not the case. Not pointing fingers, which is a complete waste of time, the market has left many buyers, myself included, in difficult circumstances. While the market is clearly in free fall I still believe long term in real estate as an investment class and location as the prime driver. Yes, I would get a better price buying today but would not get… Read more »
Anonymous

[…] developer behind Onyx on the Bay. Closings for condos at Onyx on the Bay began on July 31, 2007. My February condo closing rate post revealed that Onyx on the Bay was able to close only 45.38 percent of its units at the time. […]

Anonymous

[…] has been a while since my last post regarding the closing rate of various Miami condo developments. The last update was provided on February 20, 2008. As with the February post, the first graph below reveals the closing rate of those Miami condo […]

Anonymous
The Insider
8 years 5 months ago

Biscayne landings-Rumor all inventory sold to Hedge Fund-sales staff fired-rehired at lower costs-Rumor going to complete amenities-Fact
great rental property-not good to own!!
Boca negotiating with City on Commercial project. City may cave in on amount of revenue it is to receive for the land lease. Hotel planned 4 star??
Marina Grande North Miami Beach-Project is dead in the water-no pun intended. Hugh amount of unpaid vendors- in the Millions!!

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